Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:34 PM EDT (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday. High pressure will arrive by Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 232000
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
400 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A couple of areas of low pressure will pass to our south this
evening then east of our area overnight into Wednesday as they
combine and move along a frontal boundary. As an area of low
pressure moves into the ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday,
an occluded front and warm front will lift toward our region. A
triple point low will develop and take over as the dominant low as
it moves across our area Thursday night. This low will move away
from the area Friday, with a weak frontal boundary or surface trough
crossing the area during the day. Weak high pressure may briefly
move across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another
frontal system is expected to affect the area Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by another on Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
An email briefing with a coastal flood graphic will post by 315 pm
this afternoon. It highlights tidal inundation flood potential
for the wed-thu evening high tide cycles on the atlantic coasts
of de and nj. The next briefing of either a full scale package
or email will post around 3 pm Wednesday, incorporating not
only the minor to possibly moderate coastal flood threat and
associated products but also a possible qlcs event for SE pa
the DELMARVA S nj late Thursday.

Isolated showers may be drying into sprinkles as this is written
near and SW of phl. Otherwise sprinkles were flirting with S de
at 345pm. Hrrr was too emphatic about this northern extension
of the showers this aftn into phl.

Tonight: low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will continue
to slide northeast, with showers along the coasts but chancey
for E pa nnj late tonight. Northeast wind. Confidence on the
extent of showers is below average, since models are offering a
wide variety of solutions.

This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Wednesday... Scattered leftover showers possible in the morning
but it should dry out and be a decent afternoon everywhere.

Northeast wind becomes southeast in the afternoon.

This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

On Wednesday night, an area of low pressure will be lifting
through the ohio valley and toward the southern great lakes region.

Meanwhile, an occluded front and warm front will be lifting toward
our area. A triple point low is forecast to develop to our
southwest overnight, which will likely slow down the northward
progression of the frontal boundaries. This will lead to an area
of rainfall overrunning the frontal boundary and lifting across
out area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the
short wave vorticity impulse that helps create this area of
rainfall lifts north of the area, this area of rainfall will
move north as well early in the day. Then the question for the
afternoon becomes how far north the warm front progresses as
the triple point low approaches from the west. Another period of
rainfall is expected during the afternoon and evening, but
depending on how far north the front lifts, there could be a
chance of thunderstorms to develop later in the day for a
portion of the area. The best chance for this to happen would be
for portions of delaware and the eastern shore of maryland, as
well as far southern new jersey. The rest of the area would
likely be stable enough to prevent thunderstorms, and just
receive rain.

By Thursday night, the triple point low will begin moving across the
area, pulling the occluded frontal system across the area as well.

This will lead to continuing scattered showers during the night
Thursday. On Friday, the low will continue to move to our northeast
and offshore of new england. A weak frontal boundary or surface
trough new england is forecast to move across the area during the
day. This could lead to another chance of scattered showers during
the afternoon.

Friday night through most of Saturday is expected to be dry as weak
high pressure quickly moves across the area. However, a warm front
will begin approaching the area from the south late in the day and
into the overnight hours as an area of low pressure lifts into the
great lakes region. As the low continues to lift through the great
lakes region Sunday, the warm front may lift across the area before
a triple point low forms and moves across the area as well. The
exact timing of these features is still a little uncertain, but
Saturday night through Sunday looks like there should be several
periods of showers, and possible thunderstorms if enough instability
builds on Sunday.

The low pressure system that moves across the great lakes over the
weekend is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south-central
canada Monday into Tuesday. This may send a couple of frontal
boundaries across the area Monday and Tuesday, leading to additional
showers or thunderstorms early next week.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...VFR lowering CIGS with potential MVFR conds
in showers kacy kmiv late at night while any period of showers
elsewhere should not lower conditions to MVFR. Northeast wind,
may gust 20 kt acy.

Wednesday...VFR CIGS inn the morning and then sct-bkn AOA 4000
ft in the aftn. MVFR ifr conditions possible early in the day,
mainly at kmiv kacy. Northeast wind become southeast in the
afternoon. MAX gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Conditions lowering to ifr overnight and
continuing into Thursday as periods of rain affect the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Improvement toVFR possible for
southern areas later in the day.

Thursday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with low clouds and
fog drizzle possible.

Friday-Friday night... Improving toVFR during the day and into the
night, scattered showers possible during the daytime. Gusty
northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Showers moving into the area later in the
day, which will lead to lowering ceilings.

Saturday night-Sunday... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with periods
of low clouds and rain. Thunderstorms possible Sunday. An
improvement toVFR possible Sunday outside of
showers thunderstorms.

Marine
Sca continues de atlc waters late tonight and now extended
through the day tomorrow.

Sca added for the nj waters, primarily there for hazardous 5 ft
seas. There is a chance the guidance might be a foot too high
but felt I had to issue since our fcst is for 4 to 6 ft.

Rip risk for tomorrow-Wednesday. Preliminary... Low but on the
cusp of moderate and so please refer to the 830pm forecast for
tomorrows rip risk. The reason we dont issue the tomorrow
forecast sooner... Most of our rip current fatalities occur
between 6pm and 8pm. Therefore, we want todays forecast available
to any potential victims so they have more information for decision
making.

The safest way to swim the surf zone... Is in sight of life guards!!!
outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible. Varies between wind and waves criteria each period.

Friday night-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels.

Tides coastal flooding
Cfw for minor coastal flooding issued for the Wednesday evening
high tide cycle. A cf watch may be needed for the Thursday evening
high tide cycle for monmouth ocean and middlesex counties but
that wont be issued, if at all, until sometime Wednesday.

This afternoons issuance is also appended to a blast email for
em's including an image with a followup Wednesday around or
shortly after 3 pm.

Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring
late this week. The new moon cycle on Thursday, combined with a
possible prolonged easterly flow, we will probably see some of
our coastal sites exceed minor tidal flooding levels during the
Wednesday and Thursday evening tide cycles. There is also a
small chance that we could reach moderate levels in a few spots.

Climate
Acy is #6 wettest may on record with its 6.07. The record there for
may is 8.80 set in 1948... .Por back to 1874.

Monthly avg temps should end up within .7 degrees of where they
are now, possibly edging on the warmer side of the current departures
as seen in our climate data ending the 22nd.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for njz012>014-020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 4 pm edt Wednesday for
anz450>453.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt
Wednesday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Drag 359p
short term... Drag
long term... Robertson
aviation... Drag robertson
marine... Drag robertson 359p
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi58 min E 1 G 1 64°F 65°F1009.8 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi58 min 64°F 55°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 18 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 64°F 1010.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi44 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 1009.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi58 min 64°F 1009.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi34 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 62°F 66°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi58 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1009.5 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi58 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 1009.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi58 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 69°F1009.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi58 min 62°F 68°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 34 mi44 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 1009.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi79 min E 4.1 61°F 1010 hPa55°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi58 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 68°F1010 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi44 min E 9.7 G 12 63°F 1010.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi124 min E 1.9 62°F 1009 hPa56°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi52 min ESE 11 G 12 63°F 65°F1009.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi58 min 63°F 66°F1009.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi58 min S 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 65°F1010 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi58 min E 8 G 9.9 60°F 1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi64 minSE 410.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1009.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi44 minN 07.00 miDrizzle61°F53°F77%1011.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW5CalmN3N3NE5E6NE3E8NE3E6SE6SE4SE8SE7SE6E3
1 day agoSE8
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SE11SE8E6E6E4E3NE3NE4E5E5E4E3CalmCalmE3SE4SW3CalmCalmN3E3CalmCalm
2 days agoE7E8E7E5SE10E6SE3E5SE5E5E8E7NE5NE3SE5E6SE6SE6E6SE8SE9SE11SE8E9

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:32 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.611.52.12.52.72.72.421.51.10.80.60.70.91.31.71.91.91.71.30.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:43 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:20 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.40.811.10.90.50.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.40.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.