Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:53PM Saturday February 24, 2018 2:53 AM EST (07:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:16PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1233 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers with patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 1233 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will approach the waters as a warm front this morning and it will remain nearby through tonight before eventually moving to the north Sunday. A cold front will pass through from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240245
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
945 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will move northward through our area overnight
followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls near
or across our southern areas on Saturday before lifting
northward as a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. Another low
pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its
attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure
will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold
front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed
by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday into
Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
High pressure over the northern new england will drift out to
sea overnight as low pressure over the great lakes moves into
eastern canada. As it does, it will drag a cold front towards
the region that will not clear until Saturday morning. As a
result, much of the northeast and mid-atlantic remains situated
in a raw, cool, damp air mass.

With abundant moisture across the region, can expect overcast
skies along with fog and areas of drizzle overnight.

Temperatures are anticipate to rise slowly during the night.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Fog and drizzle will gradually dissipate in the morning as the
aforementioned cold front passes through the region. The
pressure gradient will be light behind the front, but winds
shift to the north, allowing for a dryer airmass to spread into
the region. Though skies remain cloudy throughout much of the
day, the cloud deck should lift in the afternoon.

High pressure passes north of the area, but another low will
develop over the plains states, and a warm front develops out
ahead of that low. That warm front lifts to the north and east
by late Saturday, and more rain will move into western portions
of the region as it approaches.

Although cloudy, it should be quite warm on Saturday with highs
generally in the 40s in the poconos, but in the mid to upper
50s for southeast pa and much of nj. Parts of the DELMARVA could
get into the low 60s.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend before a
quiet period begins for the early through mid week period.

Saturday night through Sunday night... An unsettled period for
the region as several systems impact our areas weather.

A stalled cold frontal boundary will start to lift northward as
a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. Another low pressure
system will cross to the north of our area, dragging a cold
front across the region Sunday night.

Rain will continue across the region Saturday night through
Sunday, especially areas north and west of the i-95 corridor.

Guidance shows around 1-2 inches of rain will fall through the
weekend, which may cause some localized flooding issues,
especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not see the
need for a flood watch at this time. Even though rain may be
heavy at times, the rain will fall over a fairly long period of
time and, although river levels will rise, little to no impacts
on the mainstem rivers is expected through the weekend. For more
info, see the hydrology section below.

Monday through Wednesday... As we like to say, big bubble, no
trouble! High pressure builds across the region allowing for the
area to dry out and warm up a bit. A few light showers may
remain early on Monday across DELMARVA but for the most part
expect the region to stay dry. Temperatures are expected to rise
back into the upper 40s to mid to upper 50s across the area. A
backdoor cold front will drop down through the area Wednesday
but cooler air will be slow to arrive and highs are likely to
remain well into the 50s. The cold front is expected to have
limited moisture with it and we have kept the forecast dry.

Wednesday night through Friday... The high breaks down and
slides to the southeast of the area. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will develop across the midwest and track to the east.

This system will push a warm front into DELMARVA on Thursday. An
area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this boundary
and then track towards the coast through Thursday night. Lots
of uncertainty, especially with front locations and timing, but
another round of rain is likely across parts of the area. With
temps a bit colder across the northern zones, a few flakes
cannot be ruled out for early Thursday and early Friday.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr lifr conditions in fog and stratus. Lgt vrb
winds. High confidence.

Saturday... Morning fog stratus with ifr lifr conditions
gradually improving toVFR by afternoon. Rain moves into western
terminals late in the day with a return to sub-vfr conditions.

Light north winds. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Mainly ifr conditions expected as rain
overspreads the area. Northeast to east winds around 8 to 12
knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday... Ifr conditions expected with limited improvement
through the day. Confidence is low that we will return toVFR
during the day. East to southeast winds will become southwest to
west by the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Improving toVFR through the night. Rain showers
will taper off through Sunday night and conditions are expected
to improve as the cold front crosses the area. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. West to
northwest winds becoming gusty to around 20 knots on Monday.

High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds,
generally around 10 knots or less, becoming more south to
southeast late. High confidence.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on the ocean and de bay through Saturday.

Vsby restrictions likely in fog and drizzle through Saturday
morning.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on the
area waters.

Sunday and Sunday night... Seas are expected to build and exceed
5 feet on the ocean on Sunday. Winds also pick up through the
day Sunday with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Conditions
will improve late Sunday night. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected
on the area waters.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through the weekend could result in minor and
poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rain is expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when up to additional inch of rain will fall.

By the time the rain ends Monday morning, the region will have
received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since Thursday, with the
highest amounts falling over the northern third of the forecast
area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be rises on areas
rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today based on
our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this morning; and
for rainfall, amounts through noon today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.2 or 7.5f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.2-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 43.0 or 7.7f warmer than the 35.3 norm. Tied
with last year. #2 40.6 in 1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.6 or 6.6f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.6-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.0 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.2-1925
42.0-2018
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent monthly pcpn
phl ranked #10 with 5.28" (0.21 as of noon daily)
ilg ranked #8 with 5.49" (0.49 as of noon daily)
abe ranked #16 with 4.29" (0.07 as of noon daily)
acy ranked #2 with 6.12" (0.28" as of noon daily)
wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation is that acy will exceed the
previous all time record rainfall for february, by the end of the
weekend.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Iovino mps
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Iovino meola mps
marine... Iovino meola mps
hydrology... Staff
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 7 45°F 44°F1023.8 hPa (-1.5)
CPVM2 17 mi53 min 44°F 44°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi53 min 44°F 1023.1 hPa (-1.5)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi53 min S 7 G 8 44°F 42°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 1023.5 hPa (-1.4)
FSNM2 27 mi53 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 46°F 1022.8 hPa (-1.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi53 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 44°F1022.9 hPa (-1.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi53 min 47°F 47°F1024.4 hPa (-1.7)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi143 min SW 2.9 46°F 1024 hPa46°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi53 min S 6 G 7 45°F 43°F1023.2 hPa (-1.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi43 min S 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 1026.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi53 min 45°F 43°F1022.5 hPa (-1.7)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi53 min WSW 2.9 G 6 45°F 41°F1022.9 hPa (-1.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi53 min S 7 G 7 44°F 1024.2 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi78 minS 40.75 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1023.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi64 minSSW 40.75 miFog/Mist48°F46°F95%1025.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi59 minSE 30.50 miFog45°F45°F100%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE5E7NE4N3NE4NE3E3NE3NE3NE4N4CalmCalmNW5NW3CalmS3CalmCalmS3S4S4S6
1 day agoN9
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2 days agoS8S7S9S7S9S10S9SW7SW9
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S9S10SE8SE5S5SE5S4N3CalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:35 PM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.110.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.51.11.51.81.81.61.310.70.40.20.10.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 AM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     1.02 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EST     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.60.3-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.