Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:08 AM EST (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 331 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered flurries.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft...building to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow through the day.
ANZ500 331 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will over the waters today and then offshore tonight. An arctic cold front will pass through late Tuesday and high pressure will return for Wednesday. Weak low pressure will pass through the waters Thursday and another weak low will pass by to the east Friday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 110553
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1253 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight,
followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also
pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will
usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another
weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by
high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
12:30 am update: made a few minor tweaks to winds and sky cover
overnight and generally increased temperatures by a degree or so
across the area. Otherwise, the forecast is doing fine. Starting
to see a couple of light snow observations in the far
northwestern cwa, but anything more than flurries or a dusting
looks highly unlikely. No changes to pops wx grids at this time.

Previous discussion...

cloudiness will increase tonight ahead of a stout mid-level
shortwave and accompanying surface trough. Deeper columnar
moisture should be confined from the lehigh valley and southern
poconos in pa eastward into northern nj. There will be
sufficient lift for the development of precip, but it's expected
to be spotty and light. A few snow showers have already
developed in the berks and western chester area, but no
accumulation is expected with these showers, only flurries. With
the mid and upper levels saturated with respect to ice, and the
atmosphere at or below freezing, snow will be the primary
precip type. The fast movement of this system gives the
aforementioned area a 3-5 hour window for some spotty, light
snowfall. Snow ratios are 10-12:1 and only expecting up to
several hundredths of an inch of qpf, so a dusting to a half
inch is possible, generally from sussex county nj southwestward
into berks county pa. Cannot rule out isolated one inch amount
amounts, especially the southern poconos.

Given the expectation of a potentially bigger event (see long term
section below), the snowfall map on our website remains centered on
that event, and does not reflect any accumulation whatsoever for
tonight. Tonight's snowfall expectations are far short of advisory
criteria. Therefore it will be highlighted in the hwo, and if need
be, handled with a special weather statement (sps). We held off on
issuing a sps for now, given some uncertainty in the temporal and
spatial extent of the event.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
Any snow showers are expected to wrap up by sunrise. Gradual
clearing will take place from west to east during the morning,
with additional stratocumulus cloud development during the
afternoon, especially northwest of the fall line. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Sunday, but still below
average. In addition, the airmass will be more stable, so
westerly wind gusts will be capped around 15 mph.

Long term tonight through Sunday
The extended forecast period features a continuing large- scale
trof over the eastern us, although the trof is forecast to
become much flatter toward the end of the week and into next
weekend. There will be a number of shortwv trofs rotating more
or less rapidly through the main trof, with associated surface
lows and frontal systems. Timing of the shortwaves becomes more
doubtful at longer ranges. Also, their rapid movement means
limited access to moisture and precip production.

One of the more potent systems is forecast to approach the mid-
atlantic Monday night and then move through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves past to the north into
new england, and its associated very strong cold front will cross
the area on Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front Monday night into
Tuesday morning, a broad area of UVV is forecast to develop, likely
leading to some light precip. P-type is an issue, with mostly snow
over the poconos and lehigh valley, but a mixed bag or just rain
farther S e. 2 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate in the poconos.

All precip will change to snow by late Tuesday as cold air blasts in.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be dominated by very
gusty NW winds and strong caa, as the deepening surface low moves
slowly NE through new england and into canada. Wind chills in the
teens and single digits are likely.

A clipper type system is expected to pass near the mid_atlantic
sometime thu-fri, although the timing and track are rather uncertain
at this time. This system could bring some light snow to the area,
as temperatures are forecast to remain quite cold.

Current guidance suggests a moderating temperature trend for next
weekend with temps perhaps returning to near normal.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... GenerallyVFR with CIGS around above 5000 feet
(sitting around 10 kft currently but a slight lowering is likely
before clouds scatter out near after daybreak). Some flurries
are possible, especially at rdg abe ttn, but little in the way
of impacts is expected. Winds generally light southwest. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR with west winds 5 to 15 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially north of
phl, with a wintry mix of precipitation possible. Winds
generally light and predominantly southerly. Low confidence.

Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially early in the
day, with wintry mix possible generally north of phl. Winds
becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts
after cold frontal passage. Confidence medium in general
evolution but low on timing.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR with very strong
west to northwest winds likely. Speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts
to 40 kts possible. Medium confidence.

Thursday and Friday... GenerallyVFR but local MVFR possible in
rain or snow showers. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts with
potentially higher gusts. Medium confidence.

Marine
Winds remain near or just above advisory criteria on the
atlantic waters, so the small craft advisory was not changed
with this update. Gusts are near criteria on lower delaware bay,
but given the overall downward trend expected for the rest of
tonight, decided not to issue anything here for now.

Another advisory will be needed after midnight Monday
night Tuesday morning for all of the waters, but will let the
current advisory play out before issuing another one.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Generally sub-sca conditions Monday
night, but advisory conditions likely by Tuesday as southwest
winds increase and seas build. After cold frontal passage late
on Tuesday, winds will switch to west or northwest and become
quite strong.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Gale-force west or northwest winds
quite probable.

Wednesday night... Residual gale conditions becoming advisory-
level conditions during this period.

Thursday and Friday... Sub-advisory conditions are forecast at
this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Cms franck johnson
short term... Franck
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc cms
marine... Amc cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 7 37°F 43°F1017.2 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi51 min 40°F 26°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi51 min 38°F 1016.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi69 min S 6 G 8 39°F 47°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 7 39°F 1017.1 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi51 min WSW 4.1 G 6 38°F 1016.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi51 min WNW 1 G 4.1 37°F 51°F1016.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi57 min 36°F 45°F1018.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi99 min Calm 34°F 1017 hPa31°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi57 min S 2.9 G 7 36°F 43°F1017.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi39 min WNW 3.9 G 7.8 38°F 1017.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi99 min SE 4.1 34°F 1017 hPa29°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi51 min W 18 G 21 35°F 47°F1017.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi51 min 34°F 45°F1016.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 42°F1017.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi51 min W 8 G 12 37°F 1018 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi84 minS 410.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1017.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi72 minNNW 410.00 miFair38°F29°F70%1019 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi75 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------W9W8W10
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W7W6W4SW4SW7SW7SW6SW7SW7W8NW12
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1 day ago------Calm--NE4N11
G15
N9N7--N8N7N11N10N8NW9N7--------------
2 days agoNW7N6N4N5N5N4N6N4N5N3CalmSE4SE3E3S7S4S3S3SW3S4S7S6S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:50 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:34 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.71.61.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.100.40.81.21.41.51.31.10.80.50.20.10.20.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:51 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:15 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:50 AM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:17 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:17 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.60.90.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.