Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Arden on the Severn, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:00PM Sunday September 24, 2017 10:20 PM EDT (02:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 8:51PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 732 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the northeastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Thursday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arden on the Severn, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 242256
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
656 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

High pressure will remain in place through the first part of
the week, then slowly weaken its grip over the area by the
midweek as hurricane maria moves northward through the western
atlantic. A cold front will move through late in the week,
bringing more seasonable temperatures.

Near term through Monday
High pressure across the great lakes extends into the mid

Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s should set the stage for
tonight, as skies should remain clear and winds will be light.

Low temperature forecasts follow this cue, with perhaps lows
closer to 70 in the inner cities.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
Locally, the synoptic pattern will remain similar through Monday
and Tuesday. Maria turns in the western atlantic, nearing the
outer banks on Monday night, while the ridge overhead becomes
pinched. The only implications to the forecast will be the
extent of clouds spreading inland, and whether there will be
sufficient moisture for any precip. At this point, clouds look
likely blue ridge or i-81 east Monday night into Tuesday. Precip
looks iffy... Perhaps enough for a 20-30 pop east of i-95. Of
course, track changes would lead to changes in these details, so
monitoring maria's progress via NHC would still be wise.

Monday will still be a warm day. The thermal structure may be a
degree or so cooler. By Tuesday, thicknesses will be lower and
insolation less, supporting highs around 80 degrees east of the
blue ridge. Since dewpoints will be the same, low temperature
forecasts will be rather constant through the period.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
First part of the long term period will be determined by
hurricane maria. Guidance suggests that maria will be hovering
just off of the north carolina outer banks Wednesday into
Thursday. This could somewhat increase winds over the
southeastern portion of our cwa, but not expecting them to be
particularly strong, maybe some gusts around 30 mph range in
southern md and over parts of the bay, some showers from outer
rain bands possible as well. The rest of our CWA can expect less
impacts as we will remain in a warm air mass.

Upper trough and its associated cold front should push the hurricane
eastward away from the coast Thursday into Friday. This cold front
will put an end to our above normal temperatures for late september
and a more seasonable air mass will arrive behind it sometime
Thursday or Friday. The FROPA doesn't look that moist, so expecting
just some showers with it.

Another -weaker- cold front approaches on Saturday and high pressure
builds behind it into Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr flight conditions will prevail through most of the valid
taf period. Early morning fog possible Mon and tue, clipping
mrb and cho. Have kept that risk in the TAF at MVFR. Will also
need to watch for low clouds sneaking inland Monday night-
Tuesday morning.

Clouds will be more prevalent Tuesday. Flight restrictions
possible, depending on what advects inland that early morning.

Some sub-vfr conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday with
maybe some showers around.VFR conditions expected later on
Thursday and into Friday with high pressure building in

Winds will be light (at or below 10 kt) through Monday. Winds
will generally be from the northeast, with some variation
between north and east. Winds will increase Monday night and
Tuesday as maria nears. At this time small craft conditions
possible in the mid bay Tuesday, and expected Wednesday into
Thursday with hurricane maria nearby. That could change
contingent on the path strength of maria. Consult NHC products
for updates.

Tides coastal flooding
Straits point fell just below minor stage with the latest high
tide. As the Monday morning high tide is astronomically lower
this was dropped.

It's possible that tides will be peaking at the threshold
between caution and minor flood for a couple of cycles.

Eventually, water levels should be rising as maria nears, but
there is ample spread in the guidance by that point.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Update... Woody!
previous... Hts imr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi51 min 75°F 1016.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi41 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 1016.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 79°F 1017.3 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi51 min 77°F 77°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 12 mi41 min N 3.9 G 3.9 79°F 1017.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi81 min Calm G 0 79°F 77°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 79°F 79°F1017 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi51 min N 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 77°F1017.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi111 min Calm 70°F 1017 hPa68°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 27 mi51 min Calm G 0 77°F 76°F1017.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi41 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 78°F 1017.8 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 42 mi41 min E 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 1017.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi51 min 75°F 78°F1018.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi51 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi27 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist76°F73°F94%1017.3 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD10 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair68°F64°F88%1018.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi27 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds71°F66°F87%1017.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair73°F68°F83%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi87 minno data mi84°F64°F51%1017.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD19 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair69°F66°F91%1017.6 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi36 minN 010.00 miClear73°F71°F94%1017.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair73°F66°F80%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmW3W3NW5NW3NW4NW4NW3NW5NW3N4N8N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3NW4Calm
1 day agoNW3CalmN5NW3CalmW3NW3W3N5NW5NW6NW6N6N7N7N4N6N3CalmSE3CalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3NW3NW3N4N4N5N4N4N4NW3CalmN4NW6NW4NW5NW8N7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland
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Cedar Point
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Sun -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:57 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:47 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.