Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:07AM||Sunset 5:14PM||Tuesday November 13, 2018 1:28 AM EST (06:28 UTC)||Moonrise 12:15PM||Moonset 10:17PM||Illumination 26%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth, WVHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 krlx 130019|
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
719 pm est Mon nov 12 2018
Low pressure tracks east of the area, while cold front crosses
tonight. High pressure Wednesday. Another low tracks over the
area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Cold front Sunday.
Near term through Tuesday
As of 640 pm Monday...
most of the heavy rain from today has shifted off toward the
east and into the mid-atlantic region, with the exception of a
stout band of moderate rainfall associated with the 850mb low
center moving up the lee of the appalachian spine. Further west,
winds continue to shift toward the north in response to an
approaching cold front.
Brought down temperatures a little faster than previously
forecast across ohio and in the proximity of the ohio river
given observed trends and reports of ice pellets reaching the
surface there. Also opted for more of a rain-sleet mix as
opposed to a rain-snow mix with forecast soundings indicating a
serious crystal growth struggle. Other than these small tweaks
the forecast remains mostly on track.
As of 223 pm Monday...
high resolution models show a developing sfc low pressure
center, tracking north northeast along the spine of the
appalachians tonight into Tuesday. This low pressure will
produce pcpn across the eastern half of the area, while the
fropa will produce additional light pcpn across northeast ky,
southeast oh, southwest va and the rest of wv. Coded categorical
pops per model consensus across the eastern half of the area
tonight. Increase pops from west to east accounting for fropa
Vertical temperature profiles indicate warm layer aloft
dominating the pcpn type to all liquid. Models are in agreement
bringing strong cold air advection late overnight tonight under
northwest flow. However, expect low QPF along the cold front to
produce light rain showers. Perhaps, colder air filters in near
the sfc to produce a period of mixed rain and ice pellets or
snow spreading from west to east Tuesday morning. By mid day,
all pcpn will be transition back to liquid, expect upslope snow
over the northeast mountains, diminishing towards Tuesday
evening. However, amounts will be minimal, as precipitation will
be ending from the west at the time the best cold air moves
over the area.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s, with freezing
temperatures over portions of southeast oh and northeast
mountains of wv. Highs on Tuesday will only increase few degrees
during the day, barely reaching the lower 40s central sections
Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As of 240 pm Monday...
5h trough digs across the great lakes as moisture pulls to the
east. We will see a slight rebound in height values into
Wednesday night as southern stream system makes its approach. A
warm-occluded front in association with nearly barotropic
southern stream low will track north Wednesday night and
Thursday. Secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast
of the us to close out the period. A lot is going to hinge on
timing the precip onset Wednesday night, and how rapidly low
levels are scoured out west of the appalachian range. There are
considerable differences in how the models are handling the
details, mainly due to how fast they shift the cut-off low
northward. For the big picture, track and placement of system
points to a warm wedge working up through central WV and the oh
valley with considerable cold air damming occurring east of the
appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Have generally
trended toward the faster GFS model, in terms of how quickly
warmer air makes its way in. Still could see a period over
several hours where a wintry mix of precipitation occurs late
Wednesday and early Thursday. Atmospheric column warms up
considerably during the day on Thursday for a quick transition
to all liquid. However, some colder spots in elevated mountain
valleys may have some lingering -fzra into the daytime hours.
Since there is still some uncertainty in the models in these
dynamic conditions, have elected to hold of on possible|
Long term Friday through Monday
As of 240 pm Monday...
afore-mentioned southern stream system pulls out Friday and
Saturday. The GFS is faster clearing the system, but lingering
showers over the east mountains will still be in play Saturday.
Then a cold canadian airmass settles in across the northern tier
of the us. Models generally agree that a cold front will sag
across the region Saturday night, furthering our chances for
some light snow, as 5h trough sweeps across the great lakes.
Tough axis shifts into the northeastern quadrant of the us by
Monday for continued unseasonably cool weather. Model blends
Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 645 pm Monday...
at this hour, most widespread light- to moderate rain continues
to shift up the spine of the appalachians impacting mainly bkw
and eventually ekn with lowered CIGS and vsby. Scattered pockets
of light rain remain elsewhere. Most TAF sites are clinging to
vfr however degradation to MVFR ceilings is more or less
imminent as ceilings gradually lower through the first half of
the TAF period. Ifr is possible with the passage of a cold front
after 06z, though crw may go sooner. The best chances for ifr
cigs exists in bkw ekn ckb crw overnight, meanwhile ekn bkw has
the best chances for ifr vsby tonight.
Rain sleet mix and rain snow mix are possible after frontal
passage until shortly after sunrise, about 15z. Afterward a few
light showers are possible, but mainly at the ekn terminal. Ifr
ceilings improve to MVFR stratus ceilings in the 15-17z
timeframe, while light northwest winds take hold.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Wednesday...
forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing of deteriorating (tonight) and
improving (tomorrow morning) ceilings may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
utc 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
est 1hrly 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
crw consistency h h h h m l l h h m h h
hts consistency h h h h h h m m m m m m
bkw consistency h h h m m h h h h m m h
ekn consistency m m h m l h m h h h m h
pkb consistency h h h h m m l m h h h h
ckb consistency h m h h h h m m m m h h
after 00z Wednesday...
ifr conditions possible in snow showers mainly northeast
mountains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Ifr possible in rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet overnight
Wednesday night, rain Thursday, and then in rain and snow
showers Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Rlx watches warnings advisories
Synopsis... Arj mpk
near term... Arj mc
short term... Kmc
long term... Kmc
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|Parkersburg, Mid-Ohio Valley Regional Airport, WV||23 mi||36 min||N 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||39°F||35°F||86%||1021.4 hPa|
Wind History from PKB (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||W|
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