Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:39PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:30PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth, WV
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.07, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 krlx 211843
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
243 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues into tonight. Much warmer Wednesday
into the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms
somewhere in the area each day.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 130 pm Tuesday...

an upper level ridge axis will work its way into the forecast
area from west to east through the night. These rising heights
will keep precipitation at bay... However we do have a fair
amount of clouds across the forecast are as cirrus aloft and
some diurnal cumulus below that. These clouds have really
tempered temperatures so far today, but visible satellite shows
increasing sunshine is working in from the west, so did not
significantly cut back temperatures for the remainder of the
afternoon.

Surface high pressure slides to the east overnight, which will
turn winds around to southerly by morning. Have slightly non-
diurnal trend for hill tops across the south through the pre-
dawn. This will also bring a significantly warmer day on
Wednesday. The upper ridge axis starts heading east by late
afternoon which may allow a shower or storm to drift into the
far northern CWA by late afternoon evening.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 235 pm Tuesday...

for Wednesday, broad high pressure will sit just south of the area
which will help yield and weaken a frontal boundary trying to
slide into the area from the west. Still a chance for some light
showers, however it looks like most of the energy will be
suppressed from the ridging and drying of mid levels. With
the elevated instability that models hint at, there is still a
threat for thunderstorm activity which will mostly be diurnally
driven. Since instability will be relatively weak, not
expecting anything severe at this time.

Once the boundary moves past the area another more organized
frontal boundary moves closer on Thursday and a wave of energy
traverses around the clockwise flow of the ridge and impacts our
area. The precipitation shield ahead of the cold front
associated with a surface low over the great lakes will
overspread the area along with the aforementioned disturbance.

Rain showers and thunderstorms will be an issue in the afternoon
with a frontal boundary associated with the low providing
plenty of lift and moisture. Along with high instability (ml
cape 3000+ j kg) and shear over 40kt, storms are capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind. SPC has our northern
half of the area in a marginal to slight risk for severe. Most
of the energy will ride along this clockwise path and exit
overnight.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 235 pm Tuesday...

Friday should be a relatively quiet weather day with high
pressure ridging and lack of any real ascent, however a diurnally
driven shower or storm cannot be ruled out with modest instability
expected. On Saturday, another system with a frontal boundary will
affect the area and provide ample moisture and instability for more
potential thunderstorms. High pressure shifts slightly south
allowing multiple waves to rotate around to the area through
Sunday for more unsettled weather.

Models indicate a frontal boundary and associated surface low
pressure system to the west will hang around until the beginning
of the new week (mon-tues). On the other hand, models battle
each other with trying to build in high pressure sooner, while
the upper low loses focus and strength. Thus, confidence of
timing and strength of this system is low. There is a hint of
another system around the middle of next week. At any rate, with
models being in such disagreement there is very low confidence
on timing of these systems. Continuing heat with temperatures in
the upper 80's along with plenty of moisture and chances for
thunderstorms will be the moral of this long term forecast.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 130 pm Tuesday...

have a mix of cirrus and diurnal cumulus across the forecast
area, varying from few to broken as patches drift through. Did
include a period of MVFR in ckb and crw where the cumulus is
most widespread. OtherwiseVFR expected through the TAF period.

North to northeast winds will become southerly late tonight into
tomorrow as surface high pressure drifts to the east.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Wednesday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: timing of MVFR ceilings today may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Wednesday...

widespread ifr conditions are not expected at this time.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Mz rg
near term... Mz
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Parkersburg, Mid-Ohio Valley Regional Airport, WV23 mi40 minE 40.25 miFair with Haze68°F41°F38%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from PKB (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrW11W8NW10N10N10N8N8------------N4NE8NE10NE10N8NE7NE8E7NE7N7N6
1 day agoW10
G15
SW10
G18
----------------------SW5SW6SW6W8W10SW13W8
G22
W14
G22
W12
G19
W14
G20
W10
G18
2 days agoSW10SW5SW4CalmS3Calm--------------CalmCalmS5SW8SW7
G15
SW9
G15
SW10
G17
W12W12
G20
SW12
G18
SW10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.