Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:12PM Friday February 22, 2019 6:54 AM EST (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 9:14AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth, WV
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location: 39.07, -81.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 221117
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
617 am est Fri feb 22 2019

An upper level wave continues the rain mainly across the south
through tonight. A second upper level wave brings rain across
the area this weekend. A cold front blows through on Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 615 am Friday...

still have some obs right around freezing in the northern
mountains, so will leave winter weather advisory for light
freezing rain as is. Did cut back pops some late this afternoon
with NAM and wrfs showing a short break between two impulses.

As of 1245 am Friday...

rain ongoing generally along and south of i-64. This is
associated with a series of shortwave troughs in advance of a
much stronger upper trough moving into the southern rockies
today. Not expecting this rain to make it much farther into the
middle ohio river valley, but do expect it to make its way into
the eastern slopes and northern mountains of wv. Temperatures at
this time are near to just below freezing along some of the
higher ridges. The namnest seemed to have an ok handle on
current temperatures, so blended toward that through the rest of
the night. This keeps freezing rain as the predominant p-type
for the mountain ridges. Came up with fairly similar ice
accumulations through the morning, with up to around 0.1". This
matches well with the winter weather advisory so no changes
planned at this time.

Expect rain to continue across the southern coal fields of wv
into southwestern va through much of the day. The higher
resolution NAM does try to show some drier time late afternoon
into evening while the GFS and ECMWF keep a broader
precipitation shield in place. With uncertainty in timing of
these features, will keep pops going. If higher resolution
models consistently show a drier period may start cutting back
some before the end of the shift. Overnight, rain will start
spreading northward as a warm front and the upper trough to our
west approach. Temperatures will remain above freezing for all
except the northern mountain ridges, where some light icing is
possible. Temperatures are borderline, so will let current wsw
run its course before making decision on whether another
headline is needed for late Friday night into early Saturday.

Qpf wise, have generally half an inch of rain every 12 hours
across southwestern va, tapering down to a tenth of an inch or
less from northeastern ky across hts crw and the up into the
northern mountainous counties of wv.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 435 am Friday...

an upper level ridge exits Saturday, as a flat wave crosses it,
out ahead of an approaching short wave trough, which drives a
cold front toward the area as it approaches Saturday night. An
anomalously high northward moisture feed into a west to east
oriented deformation zone drives pw values up to around 1.3-1.4
inches, spelling heavy rainfall on Saturday. The heaviest
amounts start out across southern portions of the forecast area
Saturday morning, and then move northward with the warm
advection Saturday afternoon, and then especially Saturday
night, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west.

Have QPF values close to an inch across southern portions of
the area on Saturday, with totals Saturday through Saturday
night ranging from over 1.5 inches in the hts tri state area to
just over an inch northeast portions of the forecast area, and
the flood watch remains in effect for southern portions of the
forecast area through Saturday night.

Freezing rain continues Saturday morning in the low level cold
air lingering in the eastern deeper valleys Saturday morning
with another tenth or so accumulation possible. Will late day
shift consider advisory for that area once the current advisory
expires later this morning.

Thunder is possible ahead of the cold front late Saturday and
Saturday night, although the elevated nature of the instability
should limit associated wind gusts. However, trees can still be
felled in the seemingly perennially saturated ground.

In the wake of the cold front that passes Sunday morning, a
well mix environment sets up with very strong low to mid level
flow Sunday into Sunday night. With 50 to 55 kts h85 winds
progged, and efficient late winter mixing, have rolled with a
high wind watch in and near the northern mountains of wv, where
at least advisories will likely be needed eventually.

Advisories may also be needed for much of the balance of the
forecast area for Sunday into Sunday night.

Upslope showers wane just as the column becomes cold enough for
snow Sunday evening, so have a slight chance for snow showers
there then, but with no accumulation.

Central guidance temperatures lowered a bit on Saturday,
otherwise accepted.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 435 am Friday...

seasonably chilly air takes hold for next week in a more zonal,
or less amplified, flow, with weaker system expected mid and
late week. Central guidance temperatures accepted, which dampen
the brief warm up with the mid week system depicted by the mex.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
As of 615 am Friday...

generally a quiet TAF period across northern sites, with light
winds and broken to overcast mid to high clouds givingVFR
throughout. Expecting periods of light rain across the south,
mainly impacting bkw. Speaking of bkw, have rather low
confidence in how long fog will stick around this morning.

Expect rain to move back into crw and hts toward the end of the
taf period as a warm front approaches. Winds will generally be
ne to E today, gradually turing more southerly late tonight.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of rain at southern sites may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Fri 02 22 19
utc 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
est 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency m m m m h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency m h h h h h h m h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 12z Saturday...

ifr possible in rain beginning Friday night and continuing
through Saturday night.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for

Flood watch through Sunday morning for wvz005>007-013>015-

Oh... Flood watch through Sunday morning for ohz083-086-087.

Ky... Flood watch through Sunday morning for kyz101>103-105.

Va... Flood watch through Sunday morning for vaz003-004.

Synopsis... Trm mz
near term... Mz
short term... Trm
long term... Trm
aviation... Mz

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Parkersburg, Mid-Ohio Valley Regional Airport, WV23 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair36°F24°F62%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from PKB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW4W6W7W7NW96SW9SW12
1 day agoE6CalmE8E5E6SE5SE5SE5S6SE5S5SE8S9S7S7S6S6SW6W7
2 days agoCalmCalmE3E53NE4NE3NE6N5E5NE5NE5NE5NE5NE3NE4E7E5E6CalmNE5E10E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.