Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avalon, NJ
April 23, 2024 10:45 AM EDT (14:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 7:44 PM Moonset 5:52 AM |
ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon - .
Rest of today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 2 ft at 4 seconds, becoming se 4 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and E 2 ft at 5 seconds.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1002 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231413 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1013 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
The center of high pressure generally builds to our south today, then a cold front will cross our region during mostly Wednesday morning. High pressure then arrives from the Great Lakes Thursday before shifting to our northeast and east during Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area late Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Overall, the near term forecast remains on track. The incoming system still over the central Plains and upper Midwest will begin to spread some high clouds overhead today, but otherwise, should be fairly sunny. With warm advection developing ahead of the system on strengthening southerly flow, expect highs to rise 5-10 degrees above yesterday's readings, which will feel quite nice after the chilly morning. Winds will be a little gusty, perhaps up to 20 mph, but not much different from yesterday.
The approaching system will further increase clouds with a steady southerly flow tonight. This will help keep temps much milder, with lows likely 10-15 degrees higher than this morning, mostly 40s and low 50s. As the system gets closer late at night, a few showers may move into the region, but overall not expecting much, so kept overnight POPs in the slight chance to low-end chance range.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough is forecast to swing across our region during the day Wednesday. This will drive a cold front across our area during mostly Wednesday morning. This system looks to have limited moisture with it, without a tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture, and therefore rainfall amounts are forecast to be very light. While the main cold front shifts offshore by early afternoon, a secondary cold front or trough (dew point front)
may arrive by late afternoon. Since the cold front continues to look faster, more drying is forecast to be working into the area through the afternoon. This would tend to decrease the instability, however the model forecast soundings show some weak instability present in the afternoon. The overall forcing though may be on the weaker side, however the model forecast soundings also show lowering freezing levels and steepening low level lapse rates. If a heavy shower or thunderstorm were able to develop in the afternoon, then locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Overall though with the extent of the drying forecast from about late morning through the afternoon, the thunder potential looks to be on the low side. Mild temperatures Wednesday for most of the area, however a strengthening/gusty west to northwest wind will be in place in the afternoon and evening. The sky will clear especially later in the day as high pressure quickly builds southeastward from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic Thursday morning. If the lower levels can decouple and winds become calm, a frosty early Thursday morning would be quite possible especially the more favorable locations like interior New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania north and west of the Fall Line.
A notable colder and dry air mass will be in place Thursday despite a mainly sunny sky with high temperatures mostly in the 50s. An onshore wind will also keep it even cooler along the coastal areas. Thursday night may feature more areas of frost with temperatures dropping into the 30s for much of the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Summary...Cool to start then a significant warm-up probable over the weekend and early next week. Some shower chances later in the weekend and/or early next week.
Synoptic Overview...As an upper-level trough shifts to our east to start Friday, a building ridge arrives from the west as an upper- level trough lifts across the Plains and into the Midwest through Sunday. As the influence of the upper-level trough gets closer Sunday night and Monday, the ridge shifts to our east.
The timing of this however is less certain as the upper-level trough in the Plains may become a closed low which tend to be slower moving (may be two separate systems). This will also have an impact on our precipitation chances Sunday and Monday. The overall pattern though suggests that a much warmer air mass will overspread our region mostly during the second half of the weekend and early next week.
For Friday and Saturday...Surface high pressure is currently forecast to be centered across coastal New England to start Friday, then it shifts eastward as a building ridge starts to arrive from the west. This will initially keep a cool air mass across our region, however better warm air advection kicks in Saturday as more of a southerly return flow starts to set up. In addition, a warm front should lift to our north later Saturday.
While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front, the probability looks to be on the low side at this point. After a mainly sunny Friday, clouds should be on the increase some during Saturday within the increasing warm air advection regime plus ahead of and with the warm front. The timing of this warm front looks to be driven by a lead upper-level trough or closed low that lifts across the Midwest which also has a surface low with it.
For Sunday and Monday...As an upper-level trough continues to lift up across the Plains and Midwest, the downstream ridge axis slides across our region. The influence of the trough however may start to weaken the ridge or shift it to our east into Monday. Surface low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Monday, and its associated cold front may not approach our area until Monday night. The details however will depend on the timing and amplification of the trough. In addition, high pressure sliding east of Hudson Bay Canada later Sunday into Monday may send a cold front down across New England and closer to our area. As of now, that front should remain north of our area given continued southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough from the west. Plenty of warm air is therefore currently forecast across the area, with high temperature for much of the area in the 70s to even locally some low 80 degrees. There is some chance for some showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday however the probabilities look to be on the lower side as of now.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through today...VFR. Southerly winds 5-10 kts. Gusts of 15-20 kts possible later in the morning into the afternoon. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. A few showers are possible late, but no reductions in cigs or vsby expected before dawn Wednesday. Winds southerly 5-10 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly brief period of MVFR conditions possible with also some showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR overall.
MARINE
Today, winds start below advisory levels, but will increase through the day and likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels on the northern half of the New Jersey coastal waters, as well as Delaware Bay. Therefore we have issued a Small Craft Advisory for these areas. Tonight, the gusts on the bay diminish, but on the oceans they should increase, so SCA's expand to all ocean zones after midnight. Seas will also build, reaching low-end criteria by early Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible mainly in the morning.
Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
Though there will be some moisture advection with an approaching system, the region will remain fairly dry today. Min RH values across the region will be in the 25-35% range, with southerly wind gusts in 15-25 mph range. As was done for Monday, a Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger has been issued for today.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A period of southerly flow will occur into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. This is forecast to result in surge values rising to 1-2 feet above normal along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay. With the full moon occurring today, astronomical tides will be maximized around this time as well. This should result in some areas of minor coastal flooding with the Wednesday night high tide, although the extent and exact areas that may experience the most impact remains unclear at this time.
Coastal flooding is not currently anticipated along the Atlantic coast, except for potentially Barnegat Bay.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1013 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
The center of high pressure generally builds to our south today, then a cold front will cross our region during mostly Wednesday morning. High pressure then arrives from the Great Lakes Thursday before shifting to our northeast and east during Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area late Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Overall, the near term forecast remains on track. The incoming system still over the central Plains and upper Midwest will begin to spread some high clouds overhead today, but otherwise, should be fairly sunny. With warm advection developing ahead of the system on strengthening southerly flow, expect highs to rise 5-10 degrees above yesterday's readings, which will feel quite nice after the chilly morning. Winds will be a little gusty, perhaps up to 20 mph, but not much different from yesterday.
The approaching system will further increase clouds with a steady southerly flow tonight. This will help keep temps much milder, with lows likely 10-15 degrees higher than this morning, mostly 40s and low 50s. As the system gets closer late at night, a few showers may move into the region, but overall not expecting much, so kept overnight POPs in the slight chance to low-end chance range.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough is forecast to swing across our region during the day Wednesday. This will drive a cold front across our area during mostly Wednesday morning. This system looks to have limited moisture with it, without a tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture, and therefore rainfall amounts are forecast to be very light. While the main cold front shifts offshore by early afternoon, a secondary cold front or trough (dew point front)
may arrive by late afternoon. Since the cold front continues to look faster, more drying is forecast to be working into the area through the afternoon. This would tend to decrease the instability, however the model forecast soundings show some weak instability present in the afternoon. The overall forcing though may be on the weaker side, however the model forecast soundings also show lowering freezing levels and steepening low level lapse rates. If a heavy shower or thunderstorm were able to develop in the afternoon, then locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Overall though with the extent of the drying forecast from about late morning through the afternoon, the thunder potential looks to be on the low side. Mild temperatures Wednesday for most of the area, however a strengthening/gusty west to northwest wind will be in place in the afternoon and evening. The sky will clear especially later in the day as high pressure quickly builds southeastward from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic Thursday morning. If the lower levels can decouple and winds become calm, a frosty early Thursday morning would be quite possible especially the more favorable locations like interior New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania north and west of the Fall Line.
A notable colder and dry air mass will be in place Thursday despite a mainly sunny sky with high temperatures mostly in the 50s. An onshore wind will also keep it even cooler along the coastal areas. Thursday night may feature more areas of frost with temperatures dropping into the 30s for much of the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Summary...Cool to start then a significant warm-up probable over the weekend and early next week. Some shower chances later in the weekend and/or early next week.
Synoptic Overview...As an upper-level trough shifts to our east to start Friday, a building ridge arrives from the west as an upper- level trough lifts across the Plains and into the Midwest through Sunday. As the influence of the upper-level trough gets closer Sunday night and Monday, the ridge shifts to our east.
The timing of this however is less certain as the upper-level trough in the Plains may become a closed low which tend to be slower moving (may be two separate systems). This will also have an impact on our precipitation chances Sunday and Monday. The overall pattern though suggests that a much warmer air mass will overspread our region mostly during the second half of the weekend and early next week.
For Friday and Saturday...Surface high pressure is currently forecast to be centered across coastal New England to start Friday, then it shifts eastward as a building ridge starts to arrive from the west. This will initially keep a cool air mass across our region, however better warm air advection kicks in Saturday as more of a southerly return flow starts to set up. In addition, a warm front should lift to our north later Saturday.
While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front, the probability looks to be on the low side at this point. After a mainly sunny Friday, clouds should be on the increase some during Saturday within the increasing warm air advection regime plus ahead of and with the warm front. The timing of this warm front looks to be driven by a lead upper-level trough or closed low that lifts across the Midwest which also has a surface low with it.
For Sunday and Monday...As an upper-level trough continues to lift up across the Plains and Midwest, the downstream ridge axis slides across our region. The influence of the trough however may start to weaken the ridge or shift it to our east into Monday. Surface low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Monday, and its associated cold front may not approach our area until Monday night. The details however will depend on the timing and amplification of the trough. In addition, high pressure sliding east of Hudson Bay Canada later Sunday into Monday may send a cold front down across New England and closer to our area. As of now, that front should remain north of our area given continued southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough from the west. Plenty of warm air is therefore currently forecast across the area, with high temperature for much of the area in the 70s to even locally some low 80 degrees. There is some chance for some showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday however the probabilities look to be on the lower side as of now.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through today...VFR. Southerly winds 5-10 kts. Gusts of 15-20 kts possible later in the morning into the afternoon. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. A few showers are possible late, but no reductions in cigs or vsby expected before dawn Wednesday. Winds southerly 5-10 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly brief period of MVFR conditions possible with also some showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR overall.
MARINE
Today, winds start below advisory levels, but will increase through the day and likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels on the northern half of the New Jersey coastal waters, as well as Delaware Bay. Therefore we have issued a Small Craft Advisory for these areas. Tonight, the gusts on the bay diminish, but on the oceans they should increase, so SCA's expand to all ocean zones after midnight. Seas will also build, reaching low-end criteria by early Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible mainly in the morning.
Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
Though there will be some moisture advection with an approaching system, the region will remain fairly dry today. Min RH values across the region will be in the 25-35% range, with southerly wind gusts in 15-25 mph range. As was done for Monday, a Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger has been issued for today.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A period of southerly flow will occur into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. This is forecast to result in surge values rising to 1-2 feet above normal along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay. With the full moon occurring today, astronomical tides will be maximized around this time as well. This should result in some areas of minor coastal flooding with the Wednesday night high tide, although the extent and exact areas that may experience the most impact remains unclear at this time.
Coastal flooding is not currently anticipated along the Atlantic coast, except for potentially Barnegat Bay.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ | 15 mi | 57 min | S 6G | 54°F | 30.20 | |||
| BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE | 22 mi | 57 min | SSW 8.9G | 52°F | 30.22 | |||
| ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ | 24 mi | 57 min | 50°F | 51°F | 30.16 | |||
| LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE | 30 mi | 57 min | S 4.1G | 57°F | 52°F | 30.21 | ||
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 33 mi | 135 min | SE 1 | 53°F | 30.24 | 39°F | ||
| SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ | 36 mi | 57 min | S 11G | 52°F | 30.20 | |||
| 44084 | 43 mi | 45 min | 54°F | 52°F | 2 ft | |||
| 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ | 45 mi | 25 min | SW 3.9G | 52°F | 50°F | 2 ft | 30.21 | 43°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWWD CAPE MAY COUNTY,NJ | 11 sm | 49 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 37°F | 42% | 30.21 |
Ingram Thorofare
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EDT 3.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Full Moon
Tue -- 08:56 PM EDT 4.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EDT 3.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Full Moon
Tue -- 08:56 PM EDT 4.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3.3 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.9 |
| 10 am |
| 3.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.4 |
Nummy Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT 4.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Full Moon
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT 4.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Full Moon
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nummy Island, Grassy Sound Channel, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2.8 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 3 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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