Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 9:00 PM   Moonset 5:50 AM

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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 153 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning - .
Overnight - NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt - . Diminishing to 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 153 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build across the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

FXUS61 KPHI 250536 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure arrives from the Great Lakes today before shifting to our northeast and east on Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area later Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday before moving across our area later Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lateset analysis shows the cold front has mostly cleared the region, but winds being relatively weak behind the front plus some lingering clouds, temps have been slow to drop. Have maintained freeze and frost headlines as inherited for early this morning, but temps will have to drop quite a bit more for them to verify. May trim back headlines in a few hours if trends remain above expectations.

Weak shortwave passing by this morning likely keeps some clouds around from Philly on southward for a good chunk of the day, and in fact there could be a stray shower, most likely over the Delmarva but a small chance even in southern NJ. Looks like any showers would end before noon, and we should gradually start to dry out and clear out more late in the day. While the cold advection has lagged, still expect today to be notably cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly in the 50s.

High pressure builds to the north tonight with the gradient slacking off enough. With drier air in place by then along with clear skies, expect radiational cooling to maximize. Thus, have leaned hard on the colder guidance and issued a freeze watch for a large chunk of the region especially north and east of Philadelphia. Areas further south and west look more tricky but still likely need frost advisories for these areas. Lows overall in the 30s, with near or below 30 in the Freeze Watch area and Poconos but closer to mid 30s in the urban centers and Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift to our east to start Friday. Strong surface high pressure shifts off the New England coast during Friday.

After a cold start Friday morning, the surface flow should start to become more southeast to even south-southeast. This will still keep some marine influence across the area, however the air mass is forecast to start modifying and therefore high temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, a bit higher compared to Thursday. It will still be cooler though closer to the coast given the onshore flow. Another chilly night Friday night, though slightly warmer compared to Thursday night as well with low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. This would be sufficiently warm enough to mitigate widespread frost development, but patchy frost remains possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Summary...A significant warm-up probable over the weekend and early next week. Some shower chances later in the weekend and/or early next week.

Synoptic Overview...A building ridge arrives from the west as an upper-level trough lifts across the Plains and into the Midwest through Monday. As the influence of the upper-level trough gets closer late Monday and Tuesday, the ridge shifts to our east. The timing of this however is less certain as the upper-level trough in the Plains may become a closed low which tend to be slower moving (may be two separate systems). This will also have an impact on our precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday. The overall pattern though continues to suggest that a much warmer air mass will overspread our region Sunday through the middle of next week.

For Saturday...A building ridge starts to arrive from the west and this will initially keep a cool air mass across our region.
However, some warm air advection starts as more of a southerly return flow starts initiates. In addition, a warm front should lift to our north later Saturday. While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front, mainly northwest of the I-95 urban corridor, the probability looks to be on the low side at this point. Cloud cover should dominate the sky during at least a portion of Saturday due to some increasing warm air advection and some increase in moisture ahead of and with the warm front.
The timing of this warm front looks to be driven by a lead upper- level trough or closed low that lifts across the Midwest which also has a surface low with it.

For Sunday through Wednesday...As an upper-level trough continues to lift up across the Plains and Midwest, the downstream ridge axis slides across our region Sunday and Monday before shifting offshore into Tuesday. While the initial trough looks to continue to lift to the northeast across eastern Canada, if the secondary trough forms, it may not push through our area until Wednesday. Surface low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and into adjacent Canada Monday into Tuesday, and its associated cold front approaches our area Monday night. The actual cold front looks like it will not slide across our area until later Tuesday. The details however will depend on the timing and amplification of the trough. In addition, high pressure sliding east of Hudson Bay Canada Monday into Tuesday may send a cold front down across New England and closer to our area. While this front may settle into at least our northern areas Monday night into Tuesday, it should not get too far south given the continued southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough from the west. Plenty of warm air with increasing dew points are therefore currently forecast across the area, with high temperatures for much of the area in the 70s to even some low to mid 80s. The surface flow however looks more south or even southeast at times and this will keep it several degrees cooler at the coastal communities compared to farther inland.
There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night, with PoPs mainly in the 30-50% range during this period. With the possibility of a secondary front, slight chance PoPs (15-25%) linger into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...VFR. Northerly winds generally 5 to 10 knots before diminishing late day. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming more northeasterly but slacking off to 5 kts or less overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...A period of near MVFR ceilings possible, most likely Saturday night, otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.

MARINE
Seas will remain elevated through today before slowly starting to come down tonight. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory was extended to 22z today for our northern ocean zone off the coast of Monmouth County with it running until 10z Friday for the remaining ocean zones. Northeast winds will mostly be sub SCA.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

FIRE WEATHER
RH's across much of the region will get quite low today, and we've had little rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry. While winds won't likely be up to Red Flag Criteria, there may be a need for a Special Weather Statement, which will be firmed up after morning coordination with our state partners.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ061-062.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for PAZ061-062-103-105-106.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060-105.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007-008.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ009.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

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Cliffs Wharf, Chester River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Wed -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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