Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Edesville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:21 AM EST (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:39PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 336 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am est this morning through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move east of the waters today. High pressure will briefly build in tonight before a more potent cold front will move through the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters for the remainder of the work week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edesville, MD
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location: 39.11, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200855
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
355 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface low will move offshore the new england coast this
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on
Wednesday, followed by a very cold surface high building into the
northeast for thanksgiving and Friday. A couple of surface lows may
affect the region this weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak low pressure over the delaware valley will track to the north
and east this morning and will end up just south of nyc by daybreak.

The low deepens as it moves into the gulf of maine, and this allows
a weak cold front to pass through the region early this afternoon.

Patchy fog across the region may increase in coverage and result in
lowered vsbys. For most areas, vsbys are as low as 2 miles, but
going into daybreak, vsbys may lower to under 1 mile. There is the
potential for localized dense fog, so will have to see if a dense
fog advisory is needed. Will hold off for now.

Some light rain showers will pass through northern zones, possibly
mixed with snow at higher elevations of the southern poconos and
northern nj. Any snow accumulations will be light, generally less
than 1 2 inch. Rainfall will be light as well.

Into this afternoon, clouds gradually lift and break up, and skies
should clear out late.

West northwest winds increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
this afternoon. Highs today will generally be in the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure south and west of the region will mainly be in control
of the area tonight. Meanwhile, a weak clipper system ahead of a
strong cold front will approach late tonight.

Mainly clear skies and light west winds on tap for the region
tonight. Lows will generally range from the low to mid 20s in far
northern zones to the 20s to around 30 for the rest of the
region.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Quite a few challenges with the long-term forecast, with the main
two stories being a very cold thanksgiving (and Friday) followed by
a couple of systems affecting the region this weekend into early
next week.

The large-scale pattern features a strong trough in eastern north
america on Wednesday with digging vorticity maxima amplifying the
trough as it progresses into the western atlantic by Friday night.

However, it will be replaced by amplified ridging early this weekend
with help from a polar high retrogressing into eastern north america
during this period. This will serve to reinforce longwave troughing
in the central eastern u.S. Canada, with two strong midlevel
perturbations digging into the central southeastern u.S. This
weekend into early next week. Models are struggling mightily with
the evolution of these midlevel perturbations and associated surface
lows, with very poor agreement with both by Saturday. In general,
the forecast for the whole period is based on a consensus model
blend but with less and less weighting of the 12z 00z ECMWF Saturday
and beyond as they become outliers (though worryingly consistent
ones). The ECMWF seems to be weakest with the amplified ridging and
blocking polar flow, which does not seem reasonable given the
evolving pattern early this week and general teleconnections with
the polar-latitude pattern.

On Wednesday, an arctic cold front will blast through the northeast,
progressing through our CWA by evening. Operational models depict
some light QPF along upstream of the front as deep mixing allows for
some (snow) showers to develop. The setup looks at least somewhat
favorable for a snow squall or two Wednesday (late morning into
early evening), given (1) development of shallow buoyancy in the
increasingly deep mixing layer upstream of the front, (2) very
strong 850-750 mb flow with a fetch upstream from the great lakes,
and (3) ready saturation of surface-based parcels. Though this
potential seems much higher to our north and west (as usual), this
will need to be monitored closely as the cold front progresses
through the area.

The main story with the front will be the bone-chilling air it
brings in. It will also be breezy upstream of the front, and this
spells low wind chills. Current forecast has these readings near or
below zero Wednesday night and Thursday in the poconos and adjacent
areas, with single digits and teens virtually everywhere else. Winds
will diminish Thursday night, but temperatures will plunge as a
strong surface ridge approaches, allowing for ideal radiational
cooling. Record lows are a possibility. Lowered temperatures quite a
bit Thursday and Thursday night, as statistical guidance tends to be
too warm in these environments (especially those that are so
anomalous). Somewhat worried I am still on the warm side, especially
Thursday night in more rural areas, so these numbers may be
decreased more in subsequent forecasts.

Friday should be quite cold as well, but it should be warmer as
light return flow is expected to set up as the surface high advances
offshore. As midlevel ridging moves into the region, Friday night
should be much warmer and may feature little if any cooling beyond
the early evening as warm moist advection increase(s).

Attention turns to the developing surface low in the southeast
Friday night. The GFS cmc shift this low (of varying intensity) off
the carolina coast, while the ECMWF lifts the low along the mid-
atlantic coast by 12z Saturday. Large differences in precipitation
timing and magnitude in our area occur as a result, with the ecmwf
showing considerably more precipitation on Saturday. The GFS cmc
produce some cold-conveyor-belt precipitation as the low progresses
well offshore across the i-95 corridor and surrounds but suggest the
heavier precipitation stays well south closer to the low's track.

All of the models suggest the precipitation may hold off until later
in the day Saturday, which is good news given the residual cold air
that will remain Friday night. This also makes sense given residual
effects on the strong surface high -- models tend to be too
aggressive with precipitation encroaching a retreating ridge. Should
precipitation onset be sooner, the pattern reflects a warm nose atop
near-surface near- sub-freezing air (i.E., a wintry mix with some
chance for sleet freezing rain). Cannot rule this scenario out
entirely, so have included chances of this Saturday morning.

However, current model simulations suggest the timing will be too
late, with the precipitation being a mostly above-freezing liquid
event.

There will be a brief lull in precipitation at some point this
weekend... Most likely Sunday... Before the second strong vort max
makes it move toward the area. The ECMWF looks way too fast given
the blocky polar pattern, but if correct, would suggest a quick-
hitting, light QPF event for most of the area on Monday. The GFS cmc
would suggest a stronger second QPF punch on Monday Monday night
(slower owing to the appreciable blocking simulated by these
models). Temperatures look warm on Monday, so most of the
precipitation would be liquid. However, should precipitation linger
Monday night into Tuesday on the cold side of the system, may see a
little bit of a wintry mix in the northwest cwa. Plenty of time to
figure out these details, and too much model disagreement to begin
dissecting the thermodynamic details profiles this far in advance.

Given the above, have broad (mainly chance) pops Saturday through
the end of the period with temperatures near seasonal averages for
highs and above averages for lows. Again, the entire period will not
be wet, but the timing discrepancies among the guidance preclude
pinpointing these time windows at this point.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr conditions in fog stratus this morning across most,
if not all, terminals, and scattered rain showers, mainly for
northern terminals. There is the potential for lifr conditions early
this morning in fog stratus. Conditions improve toVFR this
afternoon. Lgt vrb winds this morning become w-nw 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt.

Tonight...VFR. West winds 5-7 kt in the evening become 5 kt or less
late.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday: primarilyVFR with a strong cold front
moving through on Wednesday, switching winds from southwest to
northwest. Speeds generally 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25+ kts
after frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday.

Winds should be light and variable Thursday night and Friday.

Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday: periods of sub-vfr possible with a chance
of rain on Saturday. Winds easterly or southeasterly below 10 kts
Friday night becoming 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts near the coast
Saturday. Low confidence.

Marine
Low pressure moves across the waters this morning, and then deepens
as it moves towards the gulf of maine. Tranquil conditions this
morning, and then NW winds increase to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts
this afternoon and evening. Small craft advisory remains in effect
for lower de bay and the ocean, but went ahead and added upper de
bay to the SCA for the same time. Conditions subside to sub-sca
levels late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: strong cold front will pass through
the waters, with winds switching to northwest. A period of gales is
possible, especially off the new jersey coast, but confidence is
low. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday: strong northwest winds continue, and gales cannot be ruled
out. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday night: lingering advisory-level winds expected but should
diminish late.

Friday and Friday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Saturday: east southeast winds develop and increase, possibly to
advisory levels. Rain possible.

Climate
Here is a list of current record low temperatures:
site november 22 november 23
allentown 15 2014 16 2000, 1964
atlantic city 16 2014, 1964 10 1989
georgetown 16 1987, 1969 16 1984, 1964
mount pocono 5 1969 6 2000, 1964
philadelphia 14 1980 10 1880
reading 16 1969 16 1972
trenton 15 1880 16 1880
wilmington 17 1964 17 1964

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
climate... Mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 9 mi34 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 47°F1012.1 hPa
CPVM2 16 mi34 min 49°F 49°F
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi28 min 48°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi34 min 48°F 1011.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi22 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 50°F1012.6 hPa (+0.3)48°F
FSNM2 22 mi34 min W 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1011.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 22 mi34 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 47°F 1011.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 26 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 47°F 50°F1011.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi34 min Calm G 1 43°F 46°F1012 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi112 min SSW 1.9 47°F 1011 hPa47°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi40 min 49°F 49°F1012 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi112 min SE 4.1 45°F 1012 hPa45°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi32 min 51°F 1012.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi34 min W 5.1 G 6 48°F 50°F1011.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 45°F 42°F1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi42 minW 37.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1011.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi88 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F90%1011.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi37 minSSW 32.50 miFog/Mist48°F46°F94%1013.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi37 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE3SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE6SE4SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4W3W6W8
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NW8W9NW10NW8W7--CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmS3NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cliffs Wharf, Chester River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:06 PM EST     1.02 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.20.20.60.910.90.70.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.