Friday, December14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:36PM Friday December 14, 2018 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 904 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am est Saturday through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 904 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the western atlantic will give way tonight to low pressure moving northeast from the central gulf states toward the mid-atlantic region. This low will move slowly across our area through Saturday and Sunday and then re-develop off the new jersey coast Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will push across the region on Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another low pressure and associated frontal system is expected to affect our area toward the latter part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 150306
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1006 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the western atlantic will give way tonight
to low pressure moving northeast from the central gulf states
toward the mid-atlantic region. This low will move slowly across
our area through Saturday and Sunday and then re-develop off
the new jersey coast Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will
push across the region on Monday, followed by high pressure on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another low pressure and associated
frontal system is expected to affect our area toward the latter
part of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
A large mid upper low remains across the deep south tonight,
while an occluded surface low pressure lifts into the tennessee
vally. Meanwhile, a secondary low is developing farther east at
the triple point, with a warm front extending toward the
carolinas, and a cold front extending into the gulf of mexico.

This warm front will slowly lift northward overnight as the
secondary low lifts into the carolinas. North of the front,
multiple short wave vorticity impulses will move across the
area overnight. This will lead to some weak lift spreading
across the area, allowing periods of light rain to develop
through the night. Some stronger lift is forecast to develop
later in the night and toward daybreak across southern new
jersey, delaware, and maryland, so a period of moderate to
occasional heavy rainfall is possible there. Around an inch of
rain is possible for these areas, with some locally higher
amounts possible. Farther north, rain is expected to be lighter.

Some patchy areas of fog will also likely develop through the
night, especially across portions of eastern pennsylvania,
northern and central new jersey, as well as northern delaware
and northern maryland. Some locally dense fog is possible, but
we expect the densest fog to be confined to the highest
elevations. Plus with the rainfall moving in, we expect this to
help limit widespread dense fog as well.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Rain will continue at least through the morning. By the
afternoon, there should be a lull, albeit brief lull, in
precipitation before we start seeing the leading edge of the
rain associated with the main mid and upper level low.

Temperatures should stay 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with
Saturdays highs generally in the 40s and 50s across the region.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
For the first part of the long term, i.E., Saturday night
through Sunday night, our weather will be strongly influenced by
the upper low which is forecast to move from the southern
appalachians northeastward to a position off the mid-atlantic
coast. The associated surface low is strung out from WV eastward
across DELMARVA into the atlantic, where it eventually reforms
Sunday night. There is also high pressure to the north centered
over northern new england, which help to push in some cooler air
at the surface.

Precipitation during this time is expected to be widespread but
not excessive, with amounts ranging from 0.5 up to 1.0 inch.

(this is in addition to previous rain on sat.) most of the
precip should be rain with temps at the surface and aloft above
freezing. However some colder surface temps in the poconos could
result in some freezing rain early Sunday morning, mainly in
higher elevations. Also some cooling aloft, advertised
especially by the nam, may lead to some snow showers late Sunday
afternoon evening for areas well north and west of phl. Precip
should generally end west to east on Sunday night.

On Monday the surface low pressure will deepen as it moves
northeast away from our area and high pressure will begin to
build in from the west. At the same time a vigorous upper trof
is forecast to dig into new england, with an associated sharp
cold front crossing our region Monday afternoon. There seems to
be little moisture or precip with this fropa, except possible
snow showers in the poconos, but temps will be noticeably
colder with gusty NW winds Monday night into Tuesday.

High pressure and fair weather will prevail for Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week, with temps near normal by Wednesday.

Then another deep trof aloft is forecast to develop over the ms
valley on Thursday and move slowly east through Friday. With a
strong and deep southerly flow ahead of the trof, precip mostly
in the form of rain could arrive Thursday and continue through
much of Friday.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR visibilities due to rain fog lowering to ifr at many
terminals. Ifr ceilings continue at rdg and abe.VFR ceilings
from ilg, phl pne to ttn on south and east will lower to MVFR
late this evening then to ifr after about 06z. Light rain will
become somewhat heavier overnight, with visibilities lowering at
all terminals. Light and variable winds overall.

Saturday... Ifr conditions should improve to MVFR through the day,
possibly toVFR at mostly ttn and abe. Rain at times especially from
the phl metro area southward. Light and variable winds becoming
northeasterly near 10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots at acy.

Low confidence with the timing of the flight category changes.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... Periods of MVFR or lower in rain,
except rain snow possible at krdg kabe. NE winds 10-15 kt.

Sunday night... MVFR in rain snow showers possible. N winds
becoming NW 10 kt or less.

Monday... GenerallyVFR conditions. NW winds 10-20 kt, with
gusts to 25 kt.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt.

Wednesday...VFR expected with west winds around 10 kt.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to increase on Saturday on the nj and
de coastal waters. SCA conditions are expected to develop by
mid day.

On the delaware bay, winds may gust above 20 kt at times, especially
on the lower bay, but are forecast to stay below 25 kt through the
day on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... We decided to upgrade to a gale
watch for Saturday night and Sunday for our northern two new
jersey coastal zones, from little egg inlet northward. The
small craft advisory was extended for the southern new jersey
and delaware coastal zones, from little egg inlet southward.

Small craft advisory conditions may also develop on delaware bay
on Saturday night.

Sunday night through Monday... SCA conditions remain on the
waters. Winds will remain gusty out of the north to northwest
around 15 to 20 knots with gale force gusts possible.

Tuesday... Winds and seas should be gradually diminishing but
could remain above SCA criteria for much of the day.

Wednesday... Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for
anz452>455.

Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm est Saturday for anz450-
451.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Johnson robertson
short term... Johnson
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc gorse meola
marine... Amc johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi36 min 51°F 44°F1025.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi30 min E 1 G 1.9 50°F 43°F1024.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi48 min NNE 1 42°F 1025 hPa42°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi42 min 1025.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 41 mi36 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 43°F1024.5 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi28 min 48°F4 ft1024.3 hPa (-1.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi30 min E 6 G 7 47°F 42°F1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi23 minENE 310.00 miLight Rain51°F48°F92%1025 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi24 minN 07.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3NE3E7E5E9E6E4SE3SE4SE6SE8SE10SE8SE8S34CalmE4NE4E4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4SE5SE7SE7SE7E6SE9SE8E5E5E4E6CalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmW3W6W7NW7NW7W6W7W9NW10NW9W9W7NW4NW7W4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
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Fri -- 12:30 AM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:37 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:59 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.12.721.410.90.91.322.73.13.43.53.12.41.610.60.40.61.21.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
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Fri -- 12:30 AM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:37 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.12.721.410.911.422.73.13.43.53.12.31.50.90.60.50.71.21.92.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.