Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:19PM Monday October 15, 2018 8:24 PM EDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 622 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening, then becoming nw with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Isolated showers early this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning. Scattered showers late.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds around 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 622 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front extended from southwestern quebec across the upper ohio river valley to the lower mississippi river valley this afternoon. The boundary will progress to the southeast and it should pass through our region tonight. Another cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build across our region from the west on Thursday and Friday, followed by a cold front late on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 152323
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
723 pm edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A cold front extended from southwestern quebec, across the
upper ohio river valley to the lower mississippi river valley
this afternoon. The boundary will progress to the southeast and
it should pass through our region tonight. Another cold front
approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive on
Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build across our region
from the west on Thursday and Friday, followed by a cold front
late on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Mesoscale update: front is quickly approaching the area and
will enter the northwestern CWA in the next hour or two. So far,
the strongly-forced showers along the front have not fared
well, losing some organization and intensity in the past hour or
so. However, as the front moves past the higher terrain of
central pa, it will begin to approach a modestly more favorable
environment to initiate and sustain stronger lift updrafts.

Slab-like lift along the boundary is expected to resume the
strongly-forced narrow band of showers with increasing chances
of thunder as the front approaches the coast. Hi-res models
showing this process occurring between 02z and 04z generally
near and east of the i-95 corridor. The chances for stronger
convection increase closer to the coast, and with such strong
winds aloft, even low-topped convection with little or no
lightning will be capable of mixing down these stronger winds,
potentially producing gusts strong enough for sporadic wind
damage.

The main questions are if the above processes occur and when.

Hi-res models have been insistent on this occurring, but have
performed rather poorly with the predecessor (downstream) rain
generated from higher levels (likely associated with a weak vort
max). Per the 18z nam, the stronger vort MAX will be moving in
from the southwest between 00z and 03z and is quite evident on
moisture-channel imagery moving through the central appalachians
at this time. The contributions from large-scale lift in
advance of this perturbation should aid in convective
regeneration, so confidence is fairly high on the "if" question.

The "when" question is more uncertain, and timing is everything
given the speed of the front. If the timing of the vort MAX is
slow even by an hour, chances are quite low of any substantive
convection developing north of the mason-dixon line before the
front moves offshore. They remain higher in DELMARVA given the
northeast-southwest orientation of the front. But, per the
hrrr NAM nest, the timing seems to favor development near or
just east of the i-95 corridor between 02z and 03z. We shall
see.

Previous discussion...

a strong upper-level trough will slide eastward from the great
lakes and across ontario and quebec canada through tonight. This
will drive a deepening surface low eastward as it tracks well
to our north. An associated surface cold front however will
sweep across our area later tonight. Some showers will move
across parts of the area into this evening well ahead of the
cold front. These should be on the lighter side with the rain
falling mostly from a mid level cloud deck.

As this feature slides eastward an increase in the wind fields
are forecast. The 500 mb flow is forecast to increase to 70-95
knots tonight as the core of an intense mid level jet streak
tracks across much of new york state. As the flow, initially
southwesterly, increases and transports warmer and more humid
air northward, some instability is forecast to develop through
the evening into the overnight hours. The forecast soundings
vary to some degree on the amount of destabilization ahead of
the cold front, however generally up to 500 j kg may be
realized. The setup looks to be of a high shear low CAPE one,
and with the strong wind fields coupled with a band of enhanced
ascent near the cold front may result in a narrow band of forced
low-topped convection. Some of the guidance including the high-
res does show a line of showers organizing eastward across our
area by later this evening. There is a narrow line forming in
western pennsylvania this afternoon and this should be the
feature to watch. It is not all that clear how much lightning
will be generated given the low instability forecast, however if
the line is organized enough locally strong to damaging winds
could occur briefly as the line moves through given the amount
of wind above the surface. This potentially looks to be after 8
pm overall for the area from west to east and is then over with
by 2 am. This line may become better organized from about the
i-95 corridor on eastward.

The combination of the strong wind field and then the cold air
advection in the wake of the cold front should result in a
period of gusty winds associated with the wind shift. The gusty
northwest winds are expected to diminish by daybreak as the
strongest winds shift offshore and the pressure gradient lessens
some. Temperatures may actually increase some through the
evening as the flow strengthens and the low-level warm air
advection occurs, then temperatures drop off with and following
the showers and cold frontal passage. The dew points will also
tumble overnight in the wake of the cold front. Low temperatures
are mainly a model continuity blend.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The flow aloft is forecast to be more zonal on Tuesday in the
wake of a strong upper-level trough early on that exits northern
new england. High pressure at the surface centered in the ohio
valley is forecast to gradually extend into our area, and this
will loosen the pressure gradient. A northwesterly breeze will
turn west or west- southwest during the afternoon.

As the cold front settles south and east of our area in the
morning, it may tend to stall to our south given the flow aloft
becoming more parallel to it. Some lingering showers are
possible across the far southern areas early, then given dry air
advection within the northwest flow should allow for a dry day.

The cloud cover should clear out quickly from north to south to
start the day, however mid to high level clouds may linger
longer mainly from the philadelphia metro area on southward.

It will be a cool day with temperatures mainly in the 50s,
however dew points are forecast to drop into the 30s for much of
the area. The high temperatures are mostly a blend of guidance
and continuity.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
We should be well into a typical autumn weather pattern from
Tuesday night through Monday with the polar jet remaining over
the great lakes and the northeast for much of the period.

A mid level short wave trough and its associated surface cold
front are expected to affect our region on Wednesday. The system
should bring limited moisture with it. As a result, we will
mention only a slight chance of afternoon showers across the
poconos and far northern new jersey.

Ridging at the surface and aloft are forecast to result in dry
and mostly sunny conditions for Thursday and Friday.

Another mid level trough is anticipated for the weekend. It
should bring a cold front through our region late on Saturday.

We will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Friday
night and Saturday in the lift ahead of the system.

Dry weather is expected to return for Sunday and Monday.

Below normal temperatures are forecast through the period. The
chill will be most noticeable on the days following the cold
fronts.

Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s in much of our
region on Wednesday night and Thursday night. A northwest wind
at 5 to 10 mph may preclude the development of much frost on
Wednesday night. However, the wind should become light and
variable on Thursday night and there may be widespread frost in
much of our area, away from urban locations and the immediate
coast.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This evening... Front will move through between 00z and 05z
across the terminals, likely with showers and a quick switch to
west-northwest winds at rdg abe around 01z-02z. Timing looks to
be 02z to 03z near the philly terminals, and there is a slight
chance of lightning by this point. Confidence is too low for taf
inclusion here. At miv acy, timing looks to be 03z to 05z, and
the line of showers is expected to intensify to the point where
mention of TS in the tafs is needed. The main terminal impact
will be the quick switch in wind direction, and it will be
likely accompanied by gusts (perhaps to 30+ kts near the showers
themselves). After frontal passage, any (brief) MVFR conditions
will becomeVFR quickly as winds become 270-320 degrees with
speeds 10-20 kts and higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Overnight... Winds become more northwesterly with time and should
diminish to around 10 kts by daybreak.VFR. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with northwest winds around 10 kts becoming more
westerly during the mid to late afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... MainlyVFR. Southwest to west wind 8 knots or
less.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Friday... MainlyVFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers. Southwest wind
5 to 10 knots.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers. Southwest to west
10 to 15 knots.

Marine
A cold front will cross the area later tonight. Strong winds
above the surface will result in gusty southwest winds ahead of
the front, with peak gusts in the 25-30 knot range. Along and
behind the front, a period of gale force northwesterly gusts are
anticipated for much of the area. As a result, the gale warning
continues for tonight. A small craft advisory however continues
for the upper delaware bay. A narrow band of heavier showers
and perhaps some embedded thunder may produce brief stronger
winds later this evening into the overnight.

For Tuesday, a small craft advisory should be needed for the
morning following the gale as winds and seas subside through the
day.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... Westerly wind gusts may approach 25 knots on
our ocean waters north of atlantic city.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... West to northwest gale force
wind gusts are expected.

Thursday... Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected.

Thursday night and Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Friday night and Saturday... Southwest wind gusts around 25
knots are possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz430.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Cms gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Iovino
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Gorse iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi36 min 71°F 69°F1014.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi36 min S 13 G 17 73°F 69°F1013.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi54 min S 8.9 59°F 1014 hPa56°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi36 min SSW 21 G 23 75°F 1014.3 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 41 mi42 min SSW 7 G 14 75°F 70°F1014.5 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi34 min 18 G 21 71°F4 ft1015.8 hPa (-1.3)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi36 min SSW 13 G 15 71°F 69°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi29 minS 1210.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1014.5 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi30 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F84%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5CalmSE4S6S7S6S9S11
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1 day agoCalmW3W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW4W3NW3CalmW3W5W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4W6NW4CalmNW5NW4NW4W3NW4NW7NW4NW6NW9W6NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.53.32.71.91.410.91.11.72.53.13.643.93.42.61.81.30.90.81.11.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:37 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.53.32.61.91.310.91.21.82.53.13.643.93.42.51.81.20.80.81.11.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.