Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

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Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 17, 2019 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Expires:201906172215;;208148 Fzus51 Kphi 171020 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 620 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz452-453-172215- Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 620 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers likely. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the evening. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 620 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in place across the northern mid-atlantic through much of the upcoming work week. SEveral waves of low pressure are expected to develop along this boundary and pass across the region leading to several rounds of showers and Thunderstorms through late this week. A stronger system and frontal boundary will pass through the region late Thursday into early Friday resulting in quieter weather in its wake.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171031
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
631 am edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in place across the
northern mid-atlantic through much of the upcoming work week.

Several waves of low pressure are expected to develop along this
boundary and pass across the region leading to several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms through late this week. A stronger system
and frontal boundary will pass through the region late Thursday into
early Friday resulting in quieter weather in its wake.

Near term through tonight
630 am update: made some minor adjustments to pops this morning
based on the latest radar trends with the decaying precipitation
to our west. Looks like we will see a lull this morning before
the next round of storms occurs this afternoon evening. The 06z
model suite is showing a fairly similar convective evolution to
the 00z models, with the NAM nest and hrrr indicating about the
southern two-thirds of the area will see numerous strong to
severe storms this afternoon. There are mixed signals regarding
convective mode now, with some potential for quasi-discrete
storms mixed with more organized line segments clusters. This
morning's soundings may shed some light on this potential (via
analysis of shear and midlevel lapse rates), but suspect that
hail potential is relatively modest given antecedent convection
modifying the midlevel thermodynamic characteristics (i.E.,
warming and moistening). Notably, the 00z WRF simulations are
much farther north with the convection this afternoon tonight,
and this is plausible since the models were generally too far
south with the precipitation frontal placement on Sunday. Should
this trend continue, may need to expand the flash flood watch
northward.

Previous discussion...

this was not the night I was expecting. After the mesoscale
convective system (mcs) moved through the region last evening
(albeit relatively weak owing to poor midlevel lapse rates from
antecedent clouds precipitation), convection began to develop in
northern DELMARVA and southern new jersey. Then it re-initiated
again a couple hours later. The storms had fairly similar
representation on radar: cores of 50+-dbz echo to about 20 kft that
were demonstrably capable of producing strong to severe surface
gusts. This made for a busy night, with several warnings issued and
quite a few reports of 50+ mph gusts, especially in the atlantic
city and tuckerton areas.

Meanwhile, a decaying MCS upstream is being handled poorly by the hi-
res guidance this morning. Precipitation is reaching northeast
maryland at this time, albeit in a weakening state. Had to bump pops
early this morning for this potential, though did not get too crazy.

Meanwhile, where precipitation occurred earlier and where it is not
occurring now, locally dense fog has developed and will likely
continue off-and-on through early morning. Added mention of this to
the grids.

The morning may have a bit of a lull (depending on what happens to
the upstream mcs... Not a sure thing). Thereafter, yet another
perturbation awaits upstream, and its timing is quite favorable for
a round of strong severe convection this afternoon evening across
the southern half or so of the cwa. As with Sunday's convective
evolution, two questions are key. (1) will antecedent
clouds precipitation mitigate more significant destabilization, as
what appeared to be the case on Sunday? (2) what will the track of
the vort MAX be (and its position relative to the quasi-stationary
surface front)? The first question will determine the severity of
the convection (and to some degree, the extent). The second question
will determine placement. Hi-res convection-allowing guidance is
decently similar in depicting the southern half to two-thirds of the
area receiving a strong to potentially severe MCS during the
afternoon evening. Notably, the hrrr appears more cellular with the
convection, which is plausible if stronger surface heating is
observed. My suspicion, though, is that there will be some effects
from predecessor clouds precipitation this morning, which may
ultimately contribute to a fast transition of cells to a convective
system.

Models are depicting rather meager buoyancy in the midlevels
(similar to what transpired Sunday), which may mitigate to some
degree a greater severe threat. However, shear looks a little
stronger today, which may counter the potentially poor midlevel
lapse rates to some degree. Additionally, models have been much more
consistent generating strong convection with a fairly strong cold
pool (thanks to fairly steep low-level lapse rates) with today's
event. As a result, think the potential for severe storms today is a
higher than Sunday. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat.

Another clear signal is the more favorable environment for heavy
rainfall. Pws exceeding 2 inches, a stalling boundary, and cold
pools that may regenerate convection on the upshear side all favor
locally excessive rainfall should sustained vigorous convection
develop and favor training (say, on the southern side of a
convective system). Additionally, upstream rounds of precipitation
may affect the area tonight (hinted at by the WRF and NAM nest, at
least). For these reasons, have issued a flash flood watch for the
southern two-thirds of the area beginning at noon today and
continuing through tonight.

The temperature forecast is a statistical blend and close to
continuity.

Short term Tuesday
Another day with the unsettled pattern and more scattered
showers and tstms with areas of heavy rains expected. The spc
day2 outlook has marginal risk for svr tstms across the southern
1 2 - 2 3rds of the cwa. Heavy rains will again be a threat and
the flash flood watch could be extended in time to cover Tuesday.

Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the low mid
80s and lows in the low mid 60s N W and close to 70 for metro
philadelphia and across delmarva.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The beginning of the long range was modified overnight, but lack
of time precluded many changes after day3. Minor changes were
made to temps Tue wed. Highs will continue to be within a few
degrees of normal while lows will be above normal. Pops were
brought up a bit in the period to align better with nearby
offices. Mostly low likely pops in these periods.

Previous discussion: global guidance indicates much of the
eastern CONUS will remain in quasi-zonal upper to mid-level flow
through late Thursday with numerous shortwave troughs and
perturbations propagating through the flow during that time. At
the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in
place across the region generally near the northern part of the
forecast area. This pattern will result in a few rounds of
showers and storms through late Thursday. As typical with this
type of pattern, global scale guidance does not handle the
details of convective evolution of timing very well, neither do
mesoscale model beyond about 24-36 hours. Therefore the timing,
evolution, and strength of showers and storms remains uncertain
through much of the long term at this time. That being said, a
few rounds of convection during this time may bring the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorm and or flash flooding. The
details on the evolution of the convection will be better
resolved in the short near term (24-48 hours) time period. By
early Friday, a stronger system looks to push through the region
ahead of a higher amplitude medium wave trough. This will bring
an end to the active period we have ahead of us this week. Some
low chances for showers and or storms appear to return into the
weekend.

As previously mentioned, most of the area will be in the vicinity of
a weak frontal boundary with southerly to westerly flow along and
south of it. This will result in dewpoints in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees and temps roughly within a few degrees of normal.

Persistent, although intermittent, cloud cover will moderate temps
such that night time lows will be relatively warm (mostly upper
60s) and daytime highs relatively cool (mostly low 80s) compared
to climatological normals. Honestly not too bad considering the
time of year!

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Patchy fog early. Scattered showers early kilg-kmiv-
kacy. A period ofVFR expected this morning in many areas. This
afternoon showers and tstms will impact many of the TAF sites
with MVFR ifr possible. The 12z tafs will further refine the
details, which are somewhat uncertain attm.

Tonight... Continued impacts of showers tstms expected to
continue with heavy rains and ifr conditions possible at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... An unsettled and stormy pattern is
expected through late week. MainlyVFR conditions are expected
outside any showers and storms, however showers and storms may
briefly lower conditions to sub-vfr at times. Winds generally
from the west or south around 5-10 kts. High confidence on the
overall pattern, but low confidence on timing of precipitation.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions
today and tonight, although seas may touch 5 ft at 44009 for a
few hours early this morning. The trend in both winds and seas
will continue to subside. The main marine hazard today and
tonight will be the possibility of storms that could contain
gusty winds. Smw products will probably be issued later today
and tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday night... Sub-advisory conditions are
expected through the outlook period, however seas and winds may
be high in and around scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the period. Seas may build to 4-5 feet Thursday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
paz060-061-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
njz009-010-012>027.

De... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara staarmann
near term... Cms
short term... Johnson o'hara
long term... O'hara staarmann
aviation... O'hara staarmann
marine... Cms o'hara staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi83 min Calm 63°F 1013 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi63 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 66°F3 ft1014.1 hPa (+1.9)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi59 minWSW 56.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1013.8 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi57 minWSW 710.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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W13W7SW5SW6SW7SW5SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:47 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:58 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.80-0.20.31.22.33.23.83.93.52.61.80.90.30.10.61.62.73.84.64.94.63.7

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:58 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.7-0.1-0.20.41.32.33.23.83.93.52.61.70.90.30.10.71.72.83.94.64.94.53.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.