Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape May Court House, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:46PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 11:01 AM EDT (15:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 918 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 918 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The mid-atlantic region will be located today between high pressure that is parked offshore and a cold front that will be moving through the great lakes and midwest states. The cold front will move into the region late tonight and slowly exit off the delmarva coast on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region on Thursday and should be the primary influence on our weather into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape May Court House, NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.13, -74.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 221324
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 am edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
The mid-atlantic region will be located today between high pressure
that is parked offshore and a cold front that will be moving through
the great lakes and midwest states. The cold front will move into
the region late tonight and slowly exit off the DELMARVA coast on
Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region on Thursday
and should continue to be the primary influence on our weather into
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Updates this morning mainly for sky cover as fog and stratus
slowly begin to erode. By early afternoon most areas should by
partly cloudy to partly sunny for a brief period before mid and
high level clouds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure
system.

Southerly surface flow will increase through the day as the
surface pressure gradient increases, and this may allow for some
gusts to around 20 mph or so as deeper mixing occurs,
especially near the coast. With strong mixing and (presumably)
strong insolation late this morning and this afternoon,
temperatures will soar to well above average values. Latest mos
guidance has highs in the mid 90s in philadelphia, but strong
mixing suggests that dew points will be considerably lower than
those observed last Friday. Nevertheless, heat indices should
flirt with or exceed heat advisory criteria in the urban
corridor this afternoon. Did not change the current advisory
with this morning's forecast package.

Aforementioned great lakes vort MAX marches east through the day. A
prefrontal trough will develop progress into upstate new york and
pennsylvania this afternoon, with convection rapidly developing in a
region of focused ascent. However, this convection should remain
west of the area through the near-term period. Downstream of the
prefrontal trough, mechanisms for storm-scale ascent are limited to
orographic effects and differential heating. With stronger large-
scale ascent to the north and west of the cwa, suspect that
convective coverage in our region will be isolated widely scattered
at best and primarily confined to areas northwest of the urban
corridor. Continued the trend of reducing pops this afternoon, with
chances primarily confined to north west of i-95.

Regarding severe potential, cape-shear parameter space is more than
adequate for severe storms. MLCAPE could approach exceed 2000 j kg
this afternoon in the western cwa, with effective bulk shear of 35
to 45 kts. With a deep layer of positive buoyancy and unusually
strong veering wind profiles for this region, the potential for hail
in addition to strong damaging winds is present. Main limiting
factor (aside from nebulous weak ascent and a lack of near-surface
convergence) is weak midlevel lapse rates, which may prevent the
development of stronger negative buoyancy cold pools in convective
downdrafts. Nevertheless, the ambient environment is quite
supportive of severe storms. The risk for hail and even an isolated
tornado is nonzero, especially with any storms that remain
discrete.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As the aforementioned pre-frontal trough approaches the region
tonight, a band or bands of loosely organized storms should
approach enter the region. However, with nocturnal stabilization
commencing, the chances for severe storms are diminished in our cwa
versus points to the north west earlier in the day. Additionally,
the vort MAX approaching the area will be weakening as it lifts
northeastward into new england. One more limiting factor is the
potential for fairly weak cold pools, given weak midlevel lapse
rates and a deep layer of substantial atmospheric moisture. All of
these factors suggest convection may struggle to survive as it
progresses eastward through the CWA overnight. This looks to be
especially true south of i-78, where large-scale ascent rapidly
weakens.

One potential modulating factor, however, is the nocturnal
increase of a low-level jet, which may enhance downward momentum
transport on the upstream side of linear convection. With residual
instability and strong shear profiles, high-resolution guidance may
be too quick to diminish convection after dark. One other factor to
consider: winds will be slow to diminish after dark, which will keep
boundary layer mixing elevated. This would slow the process of
increasing convective inhibition, and models do tend to forecast
this process too quickly, in general.

With the above in mind, kept pops primarily slight chance south of i-
76, with much higher chances north of i-78 through the night. The
synoptic cold front should be on the doorstep late in the night, but
temperatures dew points will be quite high in advance of it. Kept
forecast numbers close to mav guidance, though confidence is low
given potential impacts from convection.

One other note: the progression of the convection and upstream cold
front appears to be slowing with the latest set of model guidance.

The updated forecast slows the progression of higher pops in
accordance with this trend. As a result, pops are generally
unmentionable in the far southern CWA until late in the night.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The cold front will most likely reside along or just south east of i-
95 by daybreak Wednesday morning. The movement of the front will
then likely slow down as it progress southeastward through the
delmarva during the day as it approaches downstream ridge blocking
over the western atlantic ocean. Accordingly, conditions should dry
out rather nicely on Wednesday along and especially north west of
the i-95 corridor while locations in southeastern nj and delmarva
will continue to be under a chance for showers. If the front slows
down even more and some breaks in the clouds develop, there may be
enough instability to fuel thunderstorms toward the middle delmarva
peninsula in the afternoon. Consensus from the latest suite of model
guidance keeps the more favorable environment for severe storms just
south of delaware. An isolated strong to severe storm and heavy rain
producers is possible if the front gets hung up north.

High pressure centered over central canada midweek shifts
southeastward into the great lakes Thursday through Saturday, then
eastward into southeastern canada northeast u.S. Sunday and Monday.

This expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across
the mid atlantic during this time.

Barring any major changes to the synoptic pattern, the upcoming
Thursday-Monday period could potentially be only our second
(virtually) rain-free stretch that spans at least five days in
what has otherwise been a very wet summer. I say "virtually rain
free" because 1) cannot completely rule out an isolated shower
Sunday-Monday with the trough axis of the upper low expected to
move through at a time when onshore flow could act to moisten
the low-levels and 2) 8-13 june, which was the other 5+ day dry
stretch this summer, was technically not rain free as mpo
reported 0.01 inches of rain on both 10 june and 13 june. The
last time all eight of our climate sites have not recorded any
measurable rainfall for at least five consecutive days was 2-6
march 2017 (honorable mentions: 15-19 may except for 0.02 inches
at mpo on 15 may and the previously mentioned 8-13 june
period).

Below normal temperatures can also be expected Thursday-Monday
with highs in the mid 70s-lower 80s and lows in the 50s- lower
60s. This will provide very comfortable temperatures for outdoor
activities.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Patchy fog and lower stratus are slowly beginning to erode this
morning, withVFR expected by 14-15z. Chances for storms are
expected to gradually increase north west of kphl during the
late afternoon evening. Timing of storms is noticeably slower
with model runs the past few hours. Not at all clear if storms
will affect the urban corridor tonight, but the chances are high
enough for at least a prob30 mention after 00z-03z.

Outlook...

Wednesday... PredominatelyVFR. Any leftover showers should be
isolated and end by midday for i-95 terminals, N and w. Farther S e
toward miv and acy, chances for showers and even a thunderstorm
could linger through the afternoon as a cold front slowly progresses
offshore. Localized brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms.

Winds veer from W to NW during the morning with speeds 5-10 kt.

Wednesday night through Saturday...VFR. Generally light winds from
the N or nw, possibly becoming n-ne on Saturday.

Marine
No changes to the marine headlines this morning, as south to
southwest winds should continue to increase today and tonight on the
waters. Speeds should reach advisory criteria by mid-afternoon and
continue through tonight. Gusts may approach exceed 30 kts during
the evening hours. Seas should range from 4-6 feet this afternoon
and tonight.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with the
best chances in the new jersey coastal waters. Winds and seas will
be locally higher near any storms that occur.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Did not extend the SCA into Wednesday as available wave
guidance shows seas in our coastal waters falling below 5 ft by
daybreak. However, will still leave the door open for an extension
into the morning if seas take a bit longer to subside. Winds change
direction out of the NW and decrease steadily during the day behind
cold fropa.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Winds and seas below sca
criteria.

Rip currents...

reevaluated the rip current risk and have retained the moderate
for today and this evening. However, conditions will be near the
high category late this evening as southerly to southwesterly
winds peak and seas increase to around 5 feet. Though short-
period swell should be the primary mode through the period, an
underlying longer-period swell may be present. Should this be
more dominant than currently progged or should conditions worsen
earlier than forecast, an upgrade to high risk may be required
later this morning.

Without question, if swimming in the waters today, use extra
caution and common sense. Swim only in the presence of
lifeguards, and do not swim alone! Heed any and all restrictions
by area beach patrols.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for paz070-071-102-104-106.

Nj... Heat advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for njz010-012-015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Cms md
short term... Cms
long term... Klein
aviation... Cms klein md
marine... Cms klein


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 12 mi43 min SW 8 G 12 80°F 77°F1016.6 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 15 mi49 min SW 14 G 15 80°F 1017.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 27 mi43 min SW 6 G 11 85°F 76°F1016.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 29 mi151 min SSW 6 80°F 1018 hPa76°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 29 mi43 min SW 12 G 14 82°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 30 mi43 min 76°F 76°F1017.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 36 mi91 min SSW 8.9 83°F 1017 hPa76°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi43 min 83°F 81°F1015.8 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi71 min SSW 16 G 19 79°F 78°F3 ft1018.2 hPa (-0.8)77°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi43 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 78°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
S9
S9
S8
G11
SE11
G15
S9
G12
S13
G17
S10
G15
S10
G13
S9
G12
S7
G11
S7
S6
G9
S7
G10
S6
G9
SW7
G10
S5
SW7
S6
G9
S5
S4
S6
G9
S8
G12
SW9
G13
SW10
G14
1 day
ago
NW1
NW4
G8
NW11
NW11
NW10
NW8
NW4
G7
W5
W5
SW5
S5
SW5
SW4
SW6
SW7
SW6
E1
--
--
SE2
E1
E3
E4
SE5
2 days
ago
SW1
G4
NW6
NW10
W7
NW4
NW4
SW4
SW3
SW5
SW4
S5
SW2
W9
W10
NW3
G11
NW6
G9
NW3
G9
NW3
G9
W3
G11
W1
G4
N1
G4
N10
G15
N10
G14
N4
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ8 mi66 minSW 1110.00 miFair83°F75°F79%1017.6 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi67 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F77°F80%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrS6S8S9S13S12S12
G17
S13
G18
S9S11S7S7S8S7S8S8S6S7S7S5S7S7S10S10SW11
1 day agoNW6NW6NW6W9W13W8W7W5W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmE4S5
2 days agoNW6Calm5W8NW4NW7W6W4W4SW4S5SW3W5W4NW6CalmNW5W5NW4NW6NW44N7N7

Tide / Current Tables for Bidwell Creek entrance, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bidwell Creek entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:16 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:23 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:21 PM EDT     7.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.43.61.70.3-0.4-0.11.12.84.666.56.15.13.61.80.4-0.3-0.20.92.84.86.57.37.3

Tide / Current Tables for West Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
West Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:06 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.232.51.810.4-0-0.10.20.91.82.42.72.62.31.710.4-0-0.10.20.91.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.