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FXUS65 KREV 181946 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1246 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures remain above average with highs in the 60s for Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys through Friday. A few valleys may see highs surpass 80 degrees this weekend into Monday. Aside from isolated shower chances near the Sierra Friday afternoon, dry weather will prevail through the weekend. A cooling trend with increased shower chances may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Warming and drying trend through the weekend with 10-15% chances for showers along the Sierra, esp in southern Mono county. Can't rule out a thunderstorm or two.

* Typical westerly afternoon breezes each day, with enhanced winds on Saturday afternoon as a shortwave passes through the Pac NW.

* Enjoy the warmer, spring-like conditions while they last.
Shower and thunderstorm potential will be on the rise from Wednesday onward next week.

* NEW * Check out the Hydrology section for details on the warmth contributing to snowmelt and enhanced flows on area waterways.

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. If warm and dry is your pick for weather, then the rest of this week into early next week is your cup of tea. Warm and dry conditions will persist through early to mid next week with western Nevada valleys in the upper 70s to low 80s and the Sierra in the 60s. Sunday and Monday are projected to be the warmest day along the Sierra and western Nevada as brief shortwave ridging rides over the West.

Beyond Monday ensemble forecasts are leaning toward a cooler, more active week with several closed upper lows in the queue off the West coast. With a couple of lows and split troughs lined up to sweep into the Sierra and western Nevada next week, the trend is toward higher precipitation potential as well as thunderstorm chances. Wind signals don't appear to be very impressive for now, but localized wind gusts may pop up if we get some stronger thunderstorms. If you have outdoor chores or recreation, might be best to hedge those plans for the weekend and early next week for now. The trend continues to favor afternoon-evening showers each day next week, and the models have trended a bit wetter with more coverage today. The more active weather would contribute to a bit of a cooling trend as well, with daytime highs more in the average range.

-Edan

AVIATION

Plan on VFR conditions through the weekend. The main exception to that forecast detailed here:

* KTRK may have patchy FZFG each morning, except for early Friday morning with plenty of mid to high cloud cover present.

* Friday afternoon cumulus buildups will be visible from the main terminals, with about a 20-25% chance for a rain shower (10% chance for thunder) producing brief MVFR CIGS at KMMH between 21Z-03Z.

* Surface winds will be generally light for the next few days.
Saturday afternoon may be a more breezy day with west wind gusts around 20 mph for the far western NV terminals.

MJD/Edan

HYDROLOGY

Above normal temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies will increase snowmelt leading to minor to moderate rises in rivers and creeks draining largely snow covered watersheds. While no flooding is expected in the area, many waterways will be running cold and fast, with gradually increasing flows into early next week. The West fork of the Carson near Woodfords is expected to rise above the action stage each night through Tuesday, but remain below flood stage.

Rivers and streams draining mostly snow covered terrain below about 7500 feet are likely to see their seasonal peaks by early next week. Basins with significant higher elevation terrain will retain plenty of snow for higher flows with subsequent warmups.The Lower Humboldt is expected to have very high flows for many weeks with minor flooding likely in May or June, or even into early July.

Exercise caution around rivers and streams, remember mountain rivers and streams often reach their highest levels from snowmelt at night.

-TB

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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