Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:02 PM   Moonset 6:48 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 250846 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 146 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024


SYNOPSIS

Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early Saturday. Potential thunderstorm risks include gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain and/or small hail. Please be aware of rapidly changing conditions when outdoors. Drier weather and a slow warming trend are expected to return Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Water vapor satellite imagery shows our next trough poised just off the Pacific Northwest coast before it drops into the Sierra and western Nevada late this afternoon. The trough will deepen across the Great Basin through Friday into Saturday and bring our next round of unsettled weather. Plan on periods of rain and high elevation snow showers, enhanced afternoon breezes, and much colder temperatures for late week into the weekend.

While the main jet is projected to dive south toward central and southern CA, we will still see an uptick in the upper level winds across the Sierra and into Western Nevada Thursday afternoon.
Surface level winds will be more breezy than typical with wind gusts around 30-40 mph, while some wind prone areas may reach 45+ mph late afternoon and early this evening. West to southwest winds today will shift to more northwesterly winds by Friday. The northwest breezes with the cooler temperatures will have it feeling quite brisk compared to our more mild days earlier this week. We're still forecasting widespread chances (50-90%) for showers today into Friday along with a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms and/or pellet showers. The rain totals for today into early Saturday have remained steady for this active weather period. We're looking at about a 30-40% chance of 0.25" or more for areas west of Highway 395, lesser (15-25% chances) for western NV, and 25-35% chances for areas east of Highway 95. The colder airmass arriving with the trough may produce some light snow accumulations above 6500-7000 feet in the Sierra, so don't be shocked to see a bit of snow even at the Sierra passes through early Saturday. Friday will be the coldest day of the week with daytime highs about 15-20 degrees colder than the mild spring days just a few days ago.

Ensemble cluster analysis signals for zonal flow across the Sierra and western Nevada for early next week which would support a slow warming and drying trend. The clusters then deviate from that pattern as early as Wednesday with the majority of the ensembles displaying another Eastern Pacific trough in the weather queue.
Drat. Blended guidance temperatures show this trend "nicely" with a wide swath of values (10-15 degrees of spread) for the forecast highs from Thursday onward into the weekend. Keep your fingers crossed, but we may be looking at another cooldown and more active weather for the first weekend in May too. Can we bribe spring to give us a mild weather weekend or what?!

-Edan

AVIATION

* VFR conditions are forecast for today for most TAF sites. Except for KTRK with fog development between 09-16Z resulting in IFR conditions.

* Ahead of the main trough, FL100 winds increase resulting in enhanced westerly surface winds (25-35 kts) on this afternoon.

* More widespread showers will push in after 21z as a larger trough drops through the Sierra and western Nevada through Saturday. Thunderstorm potential will be less than 15% as rain and high elevation snow showers arrive. Heaviest precipitation will push through overnight into Friday with chances dropping off by Saturday morning.

-Edan


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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