Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:20PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:27 PM EDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:52AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build in tonight into early Tuesday before a low pressure system moves up near the delmarva coast Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 221911
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
311 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the area later today. High
pressure will briefly return tonight before low pressure
develops over eastern carolina Tuesday and moves northeast off
the DELMARVA Tuesday night. Upper-level low pressure will move
toward the area Wednesday through Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
Mcv is slowly moving through SE va/ne nc this afternoon. That
feature will pull the last of this morning's rain away from
southern md. Cold front is currently near the spine of the
appalachians but only slowly moving eastward. In between the
front and the rain/cloud-limited airmass across
baltimore/washington, some limited instability has been able to
develop due to insolation. As the front continues eastward,
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop.

Have carried chance pops eastward through this evening, but if
the stable airmass never scours out, combined with sunset, any
shower/storm may have difficulty reaching i-95.

If the front makes it through the area tonight, it won't be by
much, but drier air should eventually filter in. Before it does
so, some patchy fog may develop, mainly in southeastern areas.

Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/
Tuesday's forecast has become increasingly tricky due to a gap
between the synoptic and mesoscale models handling low pressure
development along the front to our southeast. Have chatted with
wpc, and they think the gfs/ecmwf could be suffering from
feedback, and think the nam/wrfs simulations may prove more
accurate unless an unmodeled MCV pulls the surface low farther
north. With better precipitable water values to our southeast,
think heavy rain threat is limited, but areas from
charlottesville to st. Marys could have a period of moderate
rain. It is more uncertain how much rain falls in the metros.

The low will be progressive though, with any rain ending for
most areas Tuesday evening.

A closed upper low will be moving south into the mid-west Wednesday
while a sfc low and associated cold front moves eastward across the
ohio valley. A brief period of subsidence is expected across the mid-
atlantic Wednesday leading to mostly dry conditions for most of the
day. Weak instability and lift increase across the southwest by
late afternoon. If current trends hold, widespread rainfall will
occur Wednesday night as a boundary lifts northward into the
area. There may be some weak instability, resulting in a few
rumbles of thunder.

Have not strayed too far from model consensus for temperatures.

Diurnal ranges will be muted due to clouds and precipitation,
with lows in the 50s to lower 60s and highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
A slow-moving low pressure system will allow for the chance for rain
showers and a few thunderstorms to linger across the region Thursday
into Thursday evening.

The chance for rain showers shift to the mason-dixon line and
adjacent areas Friday as the storm system finally departs northeast
into new england.

By Friday night and Saturday, weak high pressure will move into the
region. Dry conditions and a gusty breeze should ensue.

Rain showers develop in the region again for Sunday as the next
storm system pivots into the region. Temperatures will be warmer.

Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/
Cigs are lifting into the MVFR category at mid afternoon, and
are expected to rise toVFR by this evening. A weak cold front
will be crossing the area. Scattered showers are possible near
the front, and perhaps a thunderstorm, but any impacts would be
very local/targeted, so have only included vcsh in the taf.

Tuesday forecast a little uncertain with guidance spread in
position of low pressure and moderate rainfall. Have hedged
toward a more optimistic solution of MVFR for now, but ifr isn't
out of the question. A break in precipitation is expected
Tuesday night through most of Wednesday, although with continued
uncertainty of how ceilings will respond.

Showers and perhaps a storm are possible Wed night-thu night as
a warm front moves across the terminals. Sub-vfr conditions
possible during this time.

Ifr conditions Thursday. Winds southwest around 5 knots Thursday.

MVFR conditions Thursday night. Winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots
Thursday night.VFR conditions Friday into Friday night. Winds
increasing northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Friday,
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots Friday night.

Marine
Winds have dropped to less than 10 kt. Mixing should be rather
poor today in vicinity of showers. Southerly flow will become
west/northwest this evening with a cold frontal passage. Will
have to monitor the potential of thunderstorms reaching the
waters this evening, although it is looking more doubtful that
any will reach the waters.

The pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday as low pressure
moves up the coast. Have raised a small craft advisory for the
mid bay and lower potomac, where the gradient will be the best.

The winds should subside Tuesday night as the low moves away.

Low pressure will be moving west of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, lifting a warm front into the area. Southerly
flow may reach SCA criteria.

No marine hazards Thursday night. Small craft advisories
possible Friday. No marine hazards Friday night.

Tides/coastal flooding
Anomalies have continued to fall to around 1/2 ft except on the
potomac. Flooding looks unlikely for the next couple cycles at
least. However, a coastal low Tuesday provides some
uncertainty. Guidance ensembles then diverge substantially
through midweek, although increasing water levels look more
likely by Wednesday night.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz533-534-537-543.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Klw
aviation... Ads/klw
marine... Ads/klw
tides/coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44043 - Patapsco, MD 2 mi27 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 66°F1015.3 hPa (-1.7)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi39 min N 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 65°F1015.1 hPa
FSNM2 10 mi39 min ESE 7 G 8 64°F 1014.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi39 min ESE 8 G 8.9 64°F 1014.4 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi39 min 64°F 64°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi39 min 65°F 1014.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi27 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 66°F1014.6 hPa (-1.7)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 6 66°F 69°F1014 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi27 min SE 5.1 G 6 64°F 66°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 31 mi27 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 67°F1014.9 hPa (-1.6)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi117 min E 1 70°F 1015 hPa63°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi45 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 68°F1015 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi39 min S 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 70°F1013.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi27 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 58°F1015.5 hPa (-1.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi39 min 68°F 69°F
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 44 mi39 min W 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 71°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi37 minN 07.00 miOvercast64°F62°F94%1014.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi42 minN 07.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1015.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi33 minSE 610.00 miOvercast66°F64°F96%1014.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi93 minno data mi68°F63°F84%1014.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi33 minE 710.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1014.1 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi36 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F62°F83%1015.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi29 minESE 310.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8E9E7E7E8E7E6E4E3CalmE3E5E4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE6E5E7E6SE8E8E5
G8
E7E4E4E4CalmE6E5E5CalmE3CalmE5SE4E5E8SE8E8
2 days ago--CalmSW5CalmCalmW4SW6SE5CalmCalmW4CalmCalmNE4CalmNE3NE10NE8E9E8
G14
E7E6SW8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EDT     4.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     4.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.755.35.65.75.75.55.354.84.74.64.74.95.15.45.55.55.35.14.84.64.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:30 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:27 PM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.60.910.90.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.50.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.