Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

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Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday June 20, 2019 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure tracking to the northwest will sweep a cold front through the area late today and tonight. High pressure nudging southward from canada will dominate over the waters through the weekend. A warm front will then cross the waters Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200802
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
402 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure crossing into ohio will bring a cold front into
the area late today and tonight. Behind the cold front, canadian
high pressure will build southward over the region Friday and
into the weekend. This high will begin retreating northward on
Sunday as a warm front lifts toward the region Sunday night.

Near term through tonight
Stationary front remains positioned off to the north at present,
with plenty of showers and thunderstorms continuing to fire even
early this morning along it. For us, however, we are far enough
into the warm sector and away from the frontal forcing such that
only a few stray showers have developed thus far.

For today, we should generally start out with some Sun and an
increasing south to southwest breeze. This will allow surface
heating and warm advection, so it should be the warmest day of
the week, with highs approaching 90. This also sets the stage
for potential severe weather this afternoon, building ample cape
(potentially near 2000 j kg) by afternoon. However, overall,
guidance does not look as robust with the severe potential as it
did a day or two ago, particularly in dc metro, where westerly
downslope flow could ultimately limit convective potential.

Still some suggestion of fat CAPE in the hail growth zone, and
intervals of shear in the vicinity of 40 knots, though whether
that shear coincides with the good CAPE is a bit more uncertain.

Thus, SPC has maintained slight risk, and have included enhanced
wording in the forecast.

Storms move out this evening, but a secondary front and upper
level energy may cause a few showers to linger through much of
tonight. Lows will fall into the 60s, with winds picking up from
the northwest late behind the front.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Cooler and drier canadian high pressure will slowly build in
through the first half of the weekend as the cold front settles
to our south. Strong pressure gradient behind the surface low on
Friday may bring gusts of 30-40 mph, impressive for late june,
but not headline-worthy on land. Otherwise, any early showers
should give way to sunshine and pleasant conditions (other than
the wind). Highs mainly in the low 80s.

Winds die down Friday night into Saturday as high pressure
builds closer to the region and the gradient relaxes. The drier
air will allow temps to drop into the 50s in most of the region
Friday night, but sunshine should allow a rebound back to the
low 80s on Saturday. A few showers or a stray t-storm could
develop late in the day or at night in w-central va close to the
stalled front, but otherwise, dry weather should prevail through
the forecast area through Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Surface high pressure will begin to break down on Sunday, with
upper level ridging then building eastward. This will allow the
frontal boundary off to the southwest to advance northeastward
towards the area as a warm front during the day, increasing
chances for some scattered showers thunderstorms, mainly across
central western va and eastern wv. The front will then lift
through the area Monday with continued building heights out
ahead of a system over the midwest. This will lead to rising
temperatures and humidity values, and along with that, some
chances for showers thunderstorms across the region.

The system over the midwest will then move eastward on Tuesday
towards the mid-atlantic states, with continued chances for some
showers thunderstorms.

High pressure will then build south of the region on Wednesday,
with cyclonic westerly flow behind the departing system
overhead. Thus will keep slight to low chances of some lingering
shower storm activity in the forecast.

High temperatures will be in the 80s Sunday and Wednesday, with
the hottest days likely to be Monday and Tuesday as highs
approach or posssibly exceed 90f.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Southerly flow has mostly kept fog at bay so far, but some
patchy mist could still develop at the terminals early this
morning. Otherwise, main concern will be for low clouds which
have enveloped portions of the area. They should mix out by
mid-morning, but until then, ifr intervals are possible.

Later today, main concern will be for scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. These may bring strong gusts to 50 knots, hail
and heavy rain with brief intervals of ifr CIGS vis possible.

Winds become northwest and may gust up to 35 knots late tonight
through Friday behind the cold front, but otherwise,VFR
conditons should prevail. Winds diminish Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure builds in, with conditions otherwise
remainingVFR.

PrimarilyVFR expected Sunday and Monday, although potential
does exist for brief periods of reductions in any scattered
showers thunderstorms, mainly cho Sunday and at all TAF sites
Monday.

Marine
Winds below SCA right now, but should start increasing through
today as southerly fetch ahead of an approaching cold front
increases. Thus, have raised SCA for most of the waters by this
afternoon into the evening. Remaining waters may still need one
but confidence is not high in the far north yet.

Later tonight and through Friday into Friday night, strong
northwest winds behind the cold front will bring SCA to all
waters, which is also now in effect. Some places could even
flirt with low end gale, a rarity with a synoptic system in late
june. Winds should relax by Saturday as high pressure builds
back in.

Sub-sca conditions expected Sunday and Monday as high pressure
gives way to a warm front. Scattered thunderstorms with
localized gusty winds become possible Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Southerly flow has increased ahead of an approaching cold front.

This has raised anomalies enough to result in minor flooding at
the sensitive spots. So far, only have confidence in annapolis
to raise an advisory, but its possible a few other sites such as
ft. Mchenry could reach minor as well. Will need to monitor over
the next few hours. Anomalies should fall by Friday as winds
turn offshore behind the cold front.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for mdz014.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz532>537-539>542.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Friday
for anz530-531-538.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm rcm
marine... Mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi58 min S 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 75°F1003 hPa
FSNM2 10 mi64 min SSW 4.1 G 8 77°F 1002.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi52 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 77°F 1002.6 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi52 min 76°F 76°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi52 min 78°F 1002.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi34 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F1002.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 78°F1002.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi70 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 75°F 74°F1004.2 hPa (-0.0)75°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 6 76°F 75°F1002.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi58 min S 8 G 8 78°F 78°F1003 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi58 min 80°F 77°F1003.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi90 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1003.4 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi85 minSSE 57.00 miOvercast79°F77°F94%1003.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi76 minSSW 38.00 miOvercast80°F73°F79%1003.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi76 minno data mi78°F73°F85%1003.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi76 minSW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F87%1002.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi88 minSSW 45.00 mi73°F73°F100%1003.7 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi85 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1003 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW5W5SW7SW4SE5S9SE6S7S5S6S8S7S5S6S5S5S6S4S5S5S7SW6SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmW3SW7S7SE5SW10W4SW4SW7W6W4S5SW6CalmCalmS5S5CalmS3S3S4SW4SW5
2 days agoNW3N3W3S3SW4S8S8NE4N4NW5SW4CalmSE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S5SW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
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Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     4.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:32 AM EDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT     4.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.74.64.54.64.85.15.45.75.95.95.75.55.254.74.64.54.64.855.25.35.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:41 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.