Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:25 PM EDT (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 431 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Showers likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly move northward across the waters today. Meanwhile, low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes. This low will continue moving eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231915
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
315 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moving through central virginia and southern
maryland this afternoon will continue moving northward into
this evening. At the same time, low pressure will press eastward
from the eastern great lakes. A cold front associated with this
low will drop southward on Sunday, passing through region
Sunday night. Canadian high pressure will return through Tuesday
before migrating offshore during the middle portion of next
week.

Near term through tonight
A warm front snakes across central virginia, finally making
progress northward as earlier forecast. However, clouds have
stubbornly stuck around much of the day east of the blue ridge,
keeping conditions cooler and limiting the instability to this
point. As the warm front lifts northward, we are starting to see
breaks in the clouds that have remained cloud covered much of
the day. Low pressure over the lower eastern great lakes is
making its track eastward, with a midlevel trough nearing our
region from the west. This has helped nudge the aforementioned
warm front northward through the cwa. Support aloft in the form
of shortwave energy and jet dynamics will aid in providing lift
across the area this afternoon and early evening for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Areas to the south and east of the i-95 corridor, and likely dc
southward will have the most favorable environment for any
severe storms as the best moisture, instability, and lift will
reside here. MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg and SBCAPE nearing
2000 j kg, as well as 0-6km shear values of 30-40kts will be
supportive of strong to severe storms, mainly along and east of
the i-95 corridor. Can't rule out the occurrence of large hail
and or a brief tornado, particularly over the areas that see
the greatest destabilization and storms are able to interact
with the warm front moving northward. A slight risk of severe
storms covers areas along and east of the blue ridge, extending
over to the bay.

Activity should wane this evening as the trough pivots off to
the northeastward away from the region and flow aloft turns more
zonal, with even some weak ridging building overhead towards
morning. Lows tonight will range in the middle 60s to near 70
degrees. Could see some scattered occurrences of fog early
Sunday morning with ground moisture where precipitation occurs
today, but coverage isn't expected to be widespread.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As the low moves eastward from the great lakes on Sunday, a cold
front will drop southward in to our region, but not likely
passing through the area until Sunday night. There will be a
weak shortwave trough passing to our north, and the best lift
looks to remain north of the mason dixon as well. Still think we
could see some shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon
as a result, triggered by diurnal heating. Highs on Sunday will
be quite warmer than today, extending in to the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees, and ample humidity in the air. Activity will
wane Sunday evening and that front will push through overnight
with little fan fare, just a subtle shift in the wind direction
towards Monday morning. Lows Sunday night again in the middle
60s to near 70 degrees in the cities.

Canadian high pressure will emerge on Monday, filtering in
cooler and drier conditions area wide. This will promote much
more comfortable temperature and humidity levels, with near
normal highs lows Monday and Monday night. Dewpoints will be on
the decline falling through the 60s during the day on Monday,
reaching the 50s overnight Monday. No threat of precipitation
Monday and Monday night.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Canadian high pressure continues to build into the region on
Tuesday, resulting in sunny skies and no rain. Northerly wind should
keep temperatures below average, with highs expected to be in the
low 80s. The humidity will also be much lower Tuesday.

High pressure shifts off the east coast on Wednesday, starting a
gradual warming trend for the rest of the week. With the flow
turning more southerly on Wednesday, more moisture will be advected
into the region, which should allow for some afternoon
thunderstorms. Additionally, a cold front associated with a canadian
low pressure system will move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. This will bring yet another chance for some
showers and thunderstorms in that period. High temperatures should
be back into the mid 80s.

Some lingering showers and storms will be possible on Thursday, as
the front continues to move out of the region. High temperatures
will approach 90, as this front doesn't appear to bring a large
temperature drop along with it.

The front appears to stall somewhere near the region on Friday, but
appears to be relatively weak. This could provide a focal point for
some thunderstorm development Friday afternoon as well, but
otherwise expecting a dry day. High temperatures will be into the
lower 90s.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
MVFR conditions prevailing this afternoon at all terminals as a
warm front this northward through the area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to the west will continue moving
eastward, impacting the terminals into early evening. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds being the
primary threat. Outside of convective activity, southwest
breezes at 10 knots or less are forecast through this evening,
before turning more westerly overnight.

Areas that experience showers storms today will see possible vis
restrictions early Sunday morning due to fog. Not expecting
it to be widespread, and given low predictability of areas that
will see precipitation today, have left out of the tafs for now.

Later shifts can reassess this potential as things evolve
overnight. PredominateVFR conditions forecast on Sunday, but
there will be the potential for more isolated showers storms in
the afternoon which could bring brief restrictions to the
terminals. A cold front will move through the terminals Sunday
night, ushering in a subtle wind shift to the west northwest.

High pressure takes hold on Monday, promotingVFR vis CIGS and
drier conditions.

With high pressure moving into the region Tuesday, expecting
vfr conditions to prevail. High pressure shifts off the east
coast Wednesday, bringing more moisture into the region and a
chance for thunderstorms. This could lead to sub-vfr conditions
for some terminals.

Marine
Currently, no SCA headlines in place due to light southerly
winds at less than 10 knots. That being said, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will impact the waters this afternoon and
early evening, bringing the likelihood of special marine
warnings for strong gusty winds in thunderstorms.

A cold front will move through the waters late Sunday, however
winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria into early next
week as high pressure resides overhead through Tuesday. However,
as winds turn more southwesterly on Wednesday, SCA criteria
gusts will be possible.

Hydrology
With the respite in rainfall over the last 12 hrs or so, the reports
of flooded roads has dropped. Only isolated road closures remain and
flood warnings have been discontinued.

Excess water is currently draining into the mainstem rivers, with
five forecast points remain in flood. Please monitor these warnings
for particular details.

Precipitable water values over the area have fallen off below what
was here on Friday... 1.5 to 1.75 inches with approaching 2.0 inches
over southern maryland.

Note: data for the USGS remington (renv2) river gage is now coming
in as of 1115 am. Relying on manual reports for the city dock in
fredericksburg va as data has be intermittent this morning.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the dc southwest
waterfront, arlington county and the city of alexandria through
9am on Sunday. Tidal departures are running 1 to 2 feet above
normal, which will result in tidal flooding during the times of
high tide late this afternoon and early Sunday morning. Tidal
departures have been on the decline today as winds shift to the
south and southwest, but they have been slower than expected.

Minor tidal flooding is also possible early Sunday morning at
annapolis and baltimore, but confidence in this occurrence is
not high enough at this point for an advisory due to the
declining departures. Will allow the following shift to monitor
trends and issue if warranted. Tidal anomalies will continue to
further decrease through Sunday in the wake of a cold front.

Onshore flow will return towards the middle of next week,
increasing anomalies once again.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt Sunday for dcz001.

Md... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt Sunday for vaz054.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Cjl
aviation... Bkf cjl
marine... Bkf cjl
hydrology... Smz
tides coastal flooding... Bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi38 min N 7 G 7 75°F 75°F1008.9 hPa
FSNM2 10 mi38 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 1008.4 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi38 min 75°F 75°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi38 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 74°F 1008.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi38 min 1008 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 13 mi26 min E 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 76°F1009 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi38 min S 2.9 G 4.1 1008 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi26 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 76°F1009.5 hPa (-0.0)73°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi116 min SE 1.9 81°F 1008 hPa69°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi44 min Calm G 1 77°F 77°F1008.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi38 min S 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 77°F1008.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi26 min S 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 80°F1 ft1008.5 hPa (-1.0)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi38 min 81°F 81°F1009.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 49 mi116 min E 2.9 76°F 1009 hPa76°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi51 minN 47.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1008.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi36 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1009.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1008.7 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi32 minno data mi79°F71°F77%1008.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi32 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F71°F79%1008.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F69°F79%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7NE5E6E7
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E4E5CalmSE3CalmCalmNE3E3E3CalmCalmNW3NW4CalmNW6N7N6
1 day agoNE4SE6SE4E4E4SE6SE5SE5SE4E4E4E7E9E7E7E8E12
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2 days agoCalmCalmW3W5N3CalmW5W6CalmNW4NW4CalmCalmW4NW4N6N7N8N7N7N6N8NE7NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
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Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM EDT     4.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     4.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.85.25.55.75.85.75.65.35.14.94.74.64.74.95.15.25.35.35.14.94.74.64.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:43 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.110.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.30.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.