Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Isle City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday July 23, 2017 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 8:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 924 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms this evening, then showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 924 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A frontal boundary will work north across our area tonight with low pressure moving east along it. Another low is expected to follow on Monday. The second low is forecast to pull the boundary southward and away from our region allowing high pressure to build down from the northwest for the middle part of the new week. A cold front from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Isle City, NJ
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location: 39.18, -74.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230304
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1104 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary extended from the southern great lakes to
our region this afternoon. Low pressure will ride eastward along
the front and it should pass through our area tonight. Another
low is expected to follow on Monday. The second low is forecast
to pull the boundary southward and away from our region allowing
high pressure to build down from the northwest for the middle
part of the new week. A cold front from the northwest is
anticipated to arrive on Thursday night.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
It was an active late afternoon and early evening across much of
the area, mainly from central nj and berks county on south to
the DELMARVA where several areas of thunderstorms moved on
through. Activity initially developed in central nj along the
sea breeze while activity elsewhere developed from what was left
of any mcss (mesoscale convective systems) that moved east from
central pennsylvania and central maryland as well as northern
virginia. This activity has either moved offshore or weakened
altogether. Radar mainly shows light showers with embedded
moderate to heavier showers as of 9 pm across central nj and
bucks county heading east. We cannot rule out any thunder here
given how unstable things are, but lightning detection has shown
a downward trend in activity across our area. The heavier
activity near ocean city, maryland and chincoteague, virginia
was heading offshore and should not bother southern delaware
with just some light showers there.

The grids were revamped overnight based on the latest radar
trends initially for the first 3 hours. Afterwards, we leaned
towards the NAM 3 km, which seems to best have a handle of qpf
based on the look of satellite. All eyes now turn to the
convective complex that has impacted southwest pa and west
virginia this evening. Most of the models, including the global
models at higher resolutions, and some of the higher resolution
short term models like the hrrr and rap, take energy from this
complex and move it across central pa toward central and north
jersey overnight. Given the 500 mb flow is west-northwest and
the 1000-500 mb thickness contours are also west to east
(basically zonal), I am not sold on this activity heading
further north. Mcss like to track parallel to the 1000-500 mb
thickness contours and thus I think the NAM 3 km is more likely
which would take it towards dc central maryland and then toward
the DELMARVA and far south jersey (cape may atlantic cumberland
and maybe far southern ocean counties) overnight. As a result,
we updated the grids to reflect this thinking.

The heavy rain threat is greatest south of a line from
wilmington to atlantic city but may get as far north as
philadelphia overnight if convection sneaks up that far. So we
kept in enhanced wording for heavy rains and gusty winds given
the complex now as we see things. Further north, it looks to
stable overnight for much thunder and north of trenton and
freehold asbury park we yanked it.

Temperatures overnight will be mild as cloud cover increases
across the region. Fog may start to develop in some areas
towards late tonight early morning, especially where heavy rain
has fallen. Lows will drop down into the low to mid 70s across
the region, with some mid to upper 60s across parts of the
southern poconos and northwest new jersey.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Another slightly muggy day on tap for the region but
temperatures will not be quite as high as they have been
recently. Sky conditions will be pretty cloudy which should help
to keep the temps a bit lower. With a boundary across the
region it may be the tale of two cities (or parts of the
forecast area). Areas to the north of the boundary should remain
slightly cooler than those areas to the south of the boundary.

For now, anticipate that the boundary will remain just south of
or along the mason-dixon line. Areas to the north will remain in
the 80s, while areas to the south look likely to reach into the
lower 90s.

Low pressure is slated to travel along the boundary and another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours. Once again the abundance of
moisture across the region will bring the threat for heavy rain
and we will need to monitor it closely, especially for those
areas that see heavy rain today. SPC continues the
slight marginal risks across our forecast area for Sunday with
damaging winds being the greatest threat.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Unsettled conditions are forecast to continue from Sunday night
into Monday night. The frontal boundary is expected to remain
in our region on Sunday night with another low expected to pass
through our area on Monday.

We are anticipating the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
associated with another convective complex on Sunday night.

Precipitable water values should be in excess of 2 inches across
the central and southern parts of our forecast area. As a
result, we will mention the potential for heavy rain at that
time.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Monday and Monday night with the passage of the low. The low is
expected to begin pulling the front to our southeast and south
on Monday night.

The axis of a mid level short wave trough approaching from the
northwest is anticipated to pass overhead on Tuesday afternoon
and it will be followed by a shot of dry weather for the mid
week period.

A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on
Thursday and it should pass through our region from Thursday
night into early Friday. We will mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with the front.

Dry weather is forecast to return for next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonable during the new week
with no excessive heat events in sight.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Scattered showers will continue to impact mainly kabe
and to a lesser extent krdg through 06z, with the possibility of
an isolated tsra. The other terminals have seen showers and
thunderstorms pass through and should remain quiet through 02z
Sunday. Additional showers storms may follow in the wake of
convection but confidence is lower as to timing and coverage.

The greatest threat overnight for shra tsra will be at acy late
and possibly miv and ilg with a lesser risk at phl if activity
makes it that far northward. Tafs were adjusted to the latest
thinking.

MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities are likely to occur in the
wake of the convection and persist into the morning hours. Best
chances will be at those locations that see heavy rain.

There is potential for strong to severe storms today with gusty
to damaging downburst winds and torrential rainfall.

Patchy fog may form tonight especially in areas where any
heavier rain fell early. Visibility could drop to MVFR or lower
for a few periods.

Sunday... Fog low clouds early should clear into the afternoon
but skies are expected to remain pretty overcast.VFR conditions
are expected to return late morning early afternoon but
confidence is low that we see significant clearing through the
day. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected,
mainly during the afternoon evening hours.

Winds... Light southerly winds today will become more west to
southwest overnight and then will become more north to northeast
on Sunday morning. Winds speeds are expected to remain around
10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Sunday night... MVFR and ifr conditions in showers and
thunderstorms. The rain may become heavy.

Monday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms with conditions
improving toVFR outside of any areas of rain.

Monday night... Conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly ifr. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday... MVFR and ifr conditions in the morning improving to
vfr.

Tuesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected to continue on
the area waters. Winds will generally be south to southwest
through this evening around 10 knots. Winds will become more
west tonight and then northerly into Sunday. Seas are 2 to 3
feet on the ocean today and will gradually rise to 3 to 4 feet
on Sunday. While seas are expected to remain below 5 feet, they
may near 5 feet on the outer waters late tonight into Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the area waters through
tonight, with locally higher seas and gusty winds.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for risk currents is expected to continue
through this evening. The underlying 10-12 second period
continues to show up on guidance and is impacting the rip
current risk. Additionally, with the new moon is occurring on
Sunday, and a moderate risk looks likely for new jersey with a
low risk for delaware for Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
There is coastal flood advisory in effect for this evening's
high tide along the new jersey and delaware coasts and along
delaware bay.

The surge at this morning's high tide was about +0.4 to +0.6
feet. There will be an onshore component to the wind today and
it should bring the surge up around +0.6 to +0.7 feet by
evening.

The astronomical tides with the upcoming new moon are quite
high, as was the case with the new moon in both may and june. As
a result, the somewhat unimpressive surge values will likely
result in some minor flooding. If heavy rain occurs coincident
with the high tide, the potential for flooding will increase.

Conditions may be similar for Sunday evening's high tide. An
onshore flow is anticipated for Sunday, especially in areas from
atlantic city up to sandy hook.

Climate
Abe 1.29" today as of 03 23. Daily record is 1.54 set in 1938.

Por 1922.

Abe mo total as of 01z 23 is 6.46",20th wettest in the por
dating back to 1922. July record 10.42" 1969.

Equipment
Dew point readings at kdov continue to measure too high
compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as
unrepresentative of the area.

Hibernia pa and hamburg nj transmitters are off the air (lost
hibernia this evening around 0015z 23). Both have trouble
tickets. No known rts.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for
njz012>014-020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for
dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Meola 99
short term... Meola
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino meola 99
marine... Iovino meola
tides coastal flooding...

climate... 1104p
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 20 mi45 min 78°F 77°F1007.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 20 mi45 min WSW 14 G 17 75°F 75°F1007.9 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 25 mi45 min SW 18 G 21 75°F 1008.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi87 min SW 8 77°F 1007 hPa72°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 35 mi45 min SW 6 G 11 74°F 74°F1007.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi45 min SW 17 G 20 76°F 82°F1007.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 39 mi87 min SSW 6 74°F 1008 hPa73°F
BTHD1 48 mi177 min 2 ft

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ15 mi62 minSW 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain75°F72°F90%1009 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ21 mi63 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1007.2 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ23 mi63 minWSW 810.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
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W4CalmNE4SE3S4S7S6S8--------------------W5SW8SW10W9SW15
G24
1 day ago--------------------SE8SE7S9SE7S3S7S8S5S5S6--CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Ludlam Bay, west side, New Jersey
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Ludlam Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:09 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:12 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:11 PM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.8-0.1-0.6-0.30.72.13.44.34.64.23.32.110.1-0.4-0.10.92.43.955.55.24.4

Tide / Current Tables for Dennis Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Dennis Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:13 AM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:37 PM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
64.52.50.6-0.4-0.50.11.22.53.84.85.253.92.30.5-0.5-0.60.21.434.65.96.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.