Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kings, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:22 PM EST (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 332 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 332 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through this afternoon. A cold front will pass through late tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure will return later Wednesday through early Friday, then another cold front will approach late Friday into Saturday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night, and again Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 212016
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
316 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold frontal boundary will move east through our region tonight
and during the day on Wednesday. High pressure will then build
eastward into the region for Thursday and Friday before giving way
to an approaching cold front on Saturday. Another area of high
pressure will build into the region for the early part of next
week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A deep upper trough, along with a sharp cold front out ahead of an
arctic airmass, will continue to track eastward through the great
lakes and ohio valley tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure over the
eastern gulf of mexico will lift to the north and east and move off
the mid-atlantic coast tonight.

Several shortwaves will move into the northeast and mid-atlantic
region out ahead of the approaching trough, and mesoscale banding of
precip will develop mainly across de and southeast nj. Models also
picking up on a new low forming just off the eastern seaboard
sometime late tonight and into daybreak Wednesday.

There are still differences among the global and short range models.

The first bands of precip will move into the DELMARVA and southern
nj just after midnight tonight, and then the bulk of the precip
moves in shortly thereafter.

The big question is where this banding sets up. Latest hrrr showing
bulk of precip holding off until after daybreak Wednesday, and even
much farther west than most models seem to indicate. Hires-arw keeps
the bulk of the precip across southeastern zones, generally to the
east of i-95. Gfs, nam, and ECMWF bring the precip a bit closer to i-
95 in southern nj and southeast pa, but not as far west as the hrrr.

Another question will be the timing of onset of precip. It is
currently fairly dry with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to
low 30s, so it will take some time to moisten up the column to
support rainfall. Temps will remain well above freezing where it
is expected to rain, so no ptype issues expected.

Based on these trends, will go ahead and bring the swath of likely
pops to and just west of the i-95 corridor and bring swath of
measurable QPF a bit to the west as well. For the most part,
heaviest precip should be on the order of 1 4" to 1 3" qpf.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Rain continues, mainly along and south and east of i-95 corridor,
Wednesday morning as low pressure lifts out to sea. Rainfall should
wind down during the late morning hours, but with rapid
intensification of that low offshore, possible for some wraparound
precip to make it back to the nj coast around lunchtime. Not much
additional QPF expected, but would not be surprised if there was
some additional couple of hours longer than forecast.

Meanwhile, cold front works its way through the region from late
morning through the afternoon. Front should be through the fall line
by noon, and then will clear the coast by mid-afternoon. With tight
nw pressure gradient developing and onset of caa, winds will
increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph from midday on.

Temperatures will be turning cooler than today, especially in the
poconos, but the coldest air will hold off on arriving until
Wednesday night.

Highs top off in the low to mid 50s, except in the poconos, where
highs will be in the 40s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Wednesday night through Friday night:
high pressure will be in place during this period with mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will slowly warm as winds go from northwesterly
ahead of the high pressure to southwesterly on the backside of the
high pressure. Highs will generally be in the 40's with some spots
in the 50's on Friday. Overnight lows will drop down into the 20's
and 30's. Model guidance may be a bit warm in the pine barrens and
in the delaware water gap given a favorable radiational cooling
setup.

Saturday and Saturday night:
some limited transport of moisture is possible ahead of an
approaching cold front. Some lift along the front may result in
a few showers. Another feature to watch is an area of low
pressure expected to track from near florida northeastward to
just offshore of the carolinas. Some ensemble members do bring a
period of rain northward into the region. However, the general
consenus is for the cold front to continue to push the low
pressure further out to sea. With warm air advection ahead of
the front, temperatures have the potential to be warmer than the
ensemble average which has been coming up the past few runs.

Highs could reach 60 in many locations Saturday before turning
colder Sunday behind the front. Northwest winds at night should
keep lows warmer and generally in the 30's.

Sunday through Tuesday:
a fairly strong push of cold air advection will occur behind the
front. This will lead to another period of more winter like
temperatures across the region with stronger northwest winds,
gusting perhaps to 25 mph on Sunday. Some moisture associated with a
pocket of mid-level vorticity on the backside of a departing trough
may spark a few rain or snow showers across most of the region
Sunday and Sunday night. Higher terrain could act as another lifting
agent as well for the moisture. This outcome however depends on how
progressive the trough is moving through the area. Highs Sunday and
Monday will generally be in the 40's and warming into the 50's on
Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the 20's and 30's.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Sw winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt rapidly diminish
to less than 10 kt this evening, and then become lgt vrb late
tonight.VFR through most of tonight. Bkn-ovc deck moves in from
south to north mainly after 06z. MVFR conditions in -ra br expected
for terminals to the south and east of i-95, mainly at the kmiv and
kacy TAF sites, and there may also be a period of ifr conditions
late tonight as well. There may be a brief period of MVFR conditions
in -ra extending back towards the i-95 terminals of kttn-kpne-kphl-
kilg after 07z. Will use prob30 for those sites given uncertainty.

Wednesday... Rain continues in the morning and gradually tapers off
through 12-15z. Conditions lift toVFR. Winds become NW 5-10 kt
after 12z, and then increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
after 16z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday night:VFR, northwesterly winds
becoming westerly by Thursday but at or under 10 knots. High
confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-vfr possible with some showers.

Southerly wind gusts 10-15 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night:VFR, winds shifting to northwesterly with
gusts from 20-25 knots in the afternoon. Medium confidence.

Marine
Will cancel the SCA for de bay as wind gusts have fallen below 25
kt.

Wind gusts should fall below 25 kt on de bay this evening, and then
sca ends on de ocean waters later this evening as pressure gradient
relaxes. Conditions on nj ocean waters should remain above sca
criteria for most of tonight.

Rain moves in from the south late tonight and will continue through
Wednesday morning before moving out to sea. A cold front moves
across the waters Wednesday afternoon, and then NW winds increase to
15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Went ahead and issued a SCA for de bay
as current SCA was cancelled, but a new SCA for the ocean waters
will be issued for at least Wednesday afternoon when current sca
expires.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday night: sub-sca seas and winds from
Thursday onward. West winds shifting to southerly Friday into
Saturday with gusts of around 15 knots at times. Any westerly wind
gusts near 25 knots will diminish quickly Wednesday evening but seas
may linger near five feet through the entire night.

Sunday and Sunday night: winds shifting to northwest with 25-30 knot
gusts possible at times. Seas building but look to stay under five
feet at this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz454-
455.

Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm est Wednesday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines mps
marine... Gaines mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi53 min S 6 G 13 56°F 49°F1017 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 18 mi43 min S 9.7 G 12 54°F 1017.5 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 23 mi43 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 1016.9 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi53 min 55°F 46°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi53 min SSW 8.9 G 13 60°F 1016.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi53 min SSE 6 G 11 58°F 47°F1017.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi53 min 59°F 1016.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi43 min S 14 G 16 56°F 1016.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi53 min W 6 G 9.9 60°F 54°F1016.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi83 min S 20 G 22 58°F 52°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi53 min SSW 7 56°F 1018 hPa38°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi53 min 58°F 48°F1016.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi53 min SSW 6 G 9.9 58°F 46°F1017.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 37 mi53 min SSW 21 G 23 56°F 51°F1017.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi53 min 56°F 50°F1019.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi53 min S 8.9 62°F 1017 hPa42°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi43 min SW 14 G 16 59°F 1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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W12
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G12
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G12
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1 day
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NW22
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G26
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NW14
G20
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NW15
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G27
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G25
NW17
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NW8
G14
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S9
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G24
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W30
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G38
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G29
NW22
G28
NW27
NW25
G31
NW22
G30
W23
G28
NW25
G31
NW26
G32
W24
G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD19 mi85 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F37°F46%1017.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD21 mi38 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F44°F67%1017.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi43 minS 810.00 miFair57°F41°F55%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6SW7SW7CalmSW7SW7SW10SW12SW16
G19
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SW11SW11SW12
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SW11S11
1 day agoW9
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G21
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W9W6W4W7W8W8W9W8W6W7W7SW4NW8W13
G20
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W7W7W12W13
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2 days agoS8S7S10SW9S16
G22
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G23
SW14SW11S16
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SW9W18
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G26
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NW8
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:46 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:21 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.20.80.60.50.60.91.21.41.51.310.60.200.10.30.71.31.82.22.42.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:06 AM EST     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:17 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:00 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-1-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.40.50.50.30-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.60.910.90.60.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.