Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kings, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:52PM Monday April 23, 2018 5:40 AM EDT (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:07PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 433 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 433 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move off the new england coast today. An area of low pressure over the tennessee valley and southeast u.s. Will approach the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230731
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
331 am edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
Large high pressure over the northeast united states will
continue to move east today and then move off the new england
coast tonight. Low pressure over the gulf coast states will lift
to the north and east and affect the mid-atlantic region during
the mid-week period. Another low may affect the region late in
the week, followed by a cold front next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A midlevel vort MAX will be moving offshore this morning while
an upper low over the mid-south drifts eastward into the
tennessee valley today. In between, pronounced midlevel ridging
will seep eastward into the mid-atlantic. This will permit
mostly sunny skies and warmer conditions today (as midlevel
heights and 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase). GFS nam bufkit
soundings show about 2-3 degrees of warming today versus
yesterday with similar mixing heights. Surface temperatures were
about 3-6 degrees warmer than the simulated values as depicted
in these soundings on Sunday. A blend of mav met guidance
represented these displaced values well for today (and are in
excellent agreement, in general). Combined this with a blend of
the previous forecast and 2-m hrrr-simulated temperatures for
today.

Dew points tanked yesterday during the afternoon, which was
poorly simulated by virtually all models (a typical bias this
time of year). Model soundings indicate mixing that reduces dew
points about 2-4 degrees below a statistical consensus blend. I
dropped dew points by this amount in the grids for today,
basically everywhere. This may not be enough in some spots and
will likely require some monitoring editing during the day.

In addition, the sea (bay) breeze will again develop and move
onshore today. It appears high-resolution simulations were
somewhat too aggressive in moving the sea bay breeze onshore on
Sunday, but there are a couple of differences in today's
environment. First, surface temperatures will be warmer,
allowing for a stronger temperature gradient from the ocean to
land. Second, synoptic-scale flow will permit a return of
southerly southeasterly flow, which should allow the sea bay
breeze to move inland more readily. So, the forecast used a
blend of the more aggressive wrf-arw nmm to the somewhat slower-
to-materialize hrrr. This will again have impacts on temps dew
points during the afternoon, particularly in southern eastern nj
and coastal delaware, which was also considered in the forecast
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The upper low in the tennessee valley will continue to trudge
toward the appalachians tonight, with downstream ridging
progressing through the area tonight. A predecessor vort max
will progress into the central southern mid-atlantic late
tonight, and attendant lift will allow mid and upper-level
clouds to increase late tonight in southern western portions of
the cwa.

In advance of the increasing clouds, relatively clear skies and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop readily during the
evening hours. Therefore, even with the increasing cloudiness
allowing for the temperature drop to slow stop after midnight, i
went a little below the consensus statistical blend for lows
tonight given its predilection for being too conservative with
the nocturnal cooling (especially of late). Think the potential
for patchy frost exists again in the usual trouble spots (pine
barrens; valley locations to the west northwest of the philly
metro), but this will certainly be more limited than the past
few nights. Forecast lows are about 3-5 degrees warmer than
those seen early this morning.

Models keep precipitation in association with the upper low and
the predecessor vort MAX to the south west of the CWA through
the night. Slowed the onset of mentionable pops considerably
late tonight as a result. I also slowed the onset of increased
cloudiness to some degree, with the thinking that models are
probably on the aggressive side with the movement of the low
(typical bias with these setups).

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Low pressure will be over central kentucky and tennessee
Tuesday morning, and a warm front will extend out ahead of it,
and that warm front will be just southwest of the delmarva. That
warm front lifts to the north and east during the day Tuesday,
and developing rain ahead of that front will lift into the
delmarva, southeast pennsylvania, and southern new jersey in the
afternoon.

Upper trough with closed low digs into the tennessee valley in
the evening, and a secondary low forms off the southeast u.S.

Coast Tuesday night. This system lifts along the coast Tuesday
night, and then it appears as if the 2 systems merge over the
delmarva peninsula Wednesday morning. With strong onshore flow,
pwats will range from 1.25" to 1.50" after midnight Tuesday
night, and as a result, there may be a period of heavy rain.

Low pressure lifts to the north and east during the day. Dry
air will build along the coast in the afternoon, and rain tapers
off from south to north by Wednesday evening.

From there, unsettled weather looks to continue as an upper low
passes through the region. Will keep chance pops in the
forecast Thursday night and Friday.

For the weekend, the cmc-gdps has low pressure affecting the
region while the ECMWF has a low forming as a cold front passes
through the region, but the low stays well offshore. The GFS is
similar to the ecmwf. Will carry chance pops in the forecast
through Saturday.

High pressure builds back into the region for the start of the
new week.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with winds becoming southerly or southeasterly
around 5 to 10 kts. Sea bay breezes will develop and move inland
this afternoon, with somewhat stronger south to southeast winds
once the boundary passes. These boundaries will pass
miv acy ilg during the afternoon and may reach the philly
terminals late in the day. High confidence inVFR; moderate
confidence with winds.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid upper cloudiness late. Winds
becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions, especially
Tuesday night Wednesday morning as periods of rain will develop
across the region. East wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise, generally light winds
(less than 10 kt) are expected. Moderate confidence on flight
categories, but low confidence on the timing of any flight
category changes.

Thursday and Friday... GenerallyVFR conditions, but scattered
showers could result in occasional MVFR conditions. West winds
on Thursday eventually shift to the south on Friday. Low
confidence on flight categories and wind.

Marine
Winds seas will remain below advisory levels through tonight,
but southeast winds will be increasing through the period,
becoming 10 to 20 kts this afternoon and tonight with gusts
approaching advisory levels late tonight. Seas will slowly build
to 2-4 feet through the period.

There is some chance of patchy fog early this morning and again
late tonight, with some visibility restrictions possible but
expected to be fairly localized.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... East to southeast winds will increase
to 15- 20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts, and seas build up to 10 feet
on the atlantic coastal waters. Wind gusts to 25 kt are also
expected on the delaware bay. Winds shift to the west and
diminish to 10-15 kt late Wednesday. Seas remain elevated.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Winds shift to the northwest.

The main question will be how long seas remain above 5 feet on
the coastal waters. Current forecast is for elevated seas into
late Thursday, but there is still considerable uncertainty with
this.

Friday... Depending on if a coastal low develops, we may see
increasing southeasterly winds. If this happens, we could once
again reach SCA criteria.

Fire weather
Dew points were quite low on Sunday, allowing relative humidity
values to drop well below 30 percent across the area for a
lengthy period of time during the afternoon. Though winds were
generally light, the combination of low relative humidity and
fairly dry fuels allowed for the development of some wildfires.

Similar conditions will exist today. Winds will be below red
flag warning thresholds, but much like Sunday, sea and bay
breezes will develop and move inland during the day. As these
boundaries pass, winds may shift and increase rather suddenly.

For any preexisting fires, the passage of the sea bay breezes
may cause erratic conditions affecting fire growth spread.

Should winds be stronger than projected, a special weather
statement will likely be required indicating the increased
potential for wildfires.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday
for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 am edt Wednesday
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
fire weather... Cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi40 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 48°F 54°F1029.9 hPa (-0.0)
CPVM2 23 mi40 min 53°F 42°F
FSNM2 25 mi40 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 53°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi40 min E 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 1029.6 hPa (-0.4)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi40 min Calm G 1 41°F 53°F1030.4 hPa (+0.4)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi40 min 53°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi40 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 53°F 55°F1029.2 hPa (-0.4)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi130 min Calm 42°F 1030 hPa35°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi40 min 45°F 52°F1029.8 hPa (+0.5)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi40 min Calm G 1 44°F 49°F1030.2 hPa (+0.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi40 min 50°F 55°F1030.4 hPa (-0.3)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi130 min Calm 51°F 1029 hPa43°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi30 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 1029.9 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD19 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair37°F36°F99%1030.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD21 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1030.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F41°F67%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE5E5E7SE6NE6NE7CalmSE6SE7SE3SE3SW3S3SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4N4W4W3W7S5S8S6SE5S5SW4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3W4W7NW12
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N3----NE6NE5CalmN4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
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Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:34 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.821.91.61.20.90.60.50.60.91.31.82.32.52.62.421.61.20.80.60.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.50.80.90.80.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.