Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:05PM Friday September 21, 2018 8:17 AM EDT (12:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 2:18AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 735 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through Saturday morning...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front will approach from the great lakes this evening, cross the waters tonight into Saturday morning, and then stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will then return northward next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210905
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
505 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region tonight into Saturday, stalling
to the south of the region through Monday. The boundary then lifts
north as a warm front on Tuesday, followed by a cold front on
Wednesday. A brief return to high pressure is expected for the end
of the week. High pressure returns for Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure off the canadian maritimes will continue to bring an
onshore component to the surface flow this morning, though it will
be gradually veering to the south and southwest with time. Until
then, expect a low-cloud deck to persist, especially away from the
coast (where upslope effects contribute to the associated lift).

Meanwhile, a strong vort MAX approaching the great lakes and ontario
will allow a strong surface cyclone to progress rapidly east-
northeast into quebec late this afternoon. A strong cold front will
extend south-southwest into the lower great lakes and ohio valley by
21z. Large-scale lift downstream of the vort MAX combined with
boundary-layer instability in the warm sector to our west will allow
the front to develop convection readily by afternoon. A squall line
should mature fairly quickly and move into western new york and
pennsylvania late this afternoon. The front will remain well west of
us through this time, and the threat of severe weather in our area
is minimal today as a result.

This morning, a predecessor vort MAX will move through new york and
new england, with subtle lift in advance of the perturbation. This
may generate some showers (as per the 00z NAM nest; the hrrr is
generally less aggressive) in the poconos, far northwest new jersey,
and the lehigh valley. Maintained some pops here through midday,
though any rainfall would be quite light. As the vort MAX progresses
eastward this afternoon, this threat will wane, and pops are
generally unmentionable during this time frame.

Temperatures today are a real challenge, and it will be tied closely
to the persistence of the cloud cover. Statistical guidance has
trended downward considerably over the past 48 hours, with consensus
in the mid to upper 70s in the urban corridor. I went on the higher
side of consensus (but only by about a degree or two), as the bias
has been for statistical guidance to be too stubborn with the
persistence depth of cloudiness in recent days.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Main challenge tonight is forecasting the longevity of the squall
line to our west.

As the cold front sweeps eastward into the northeastern mid-
atlantic, nocturnal cooling will rapidly diminish any boundary-layer
instability downstream of the squall line. Expect a fairly rapid
decrease in strength to this convection (especially as the storms
will also begin to move away from the cooler midlevels in proximity
to the attendant vort max). The NAM nest suggests convection may
survive into the poconos before diminishing rapidly in the lehigh
valley and northern new jersey between 03z and 08z. I did increase
pops in these areas (including some likely pops this evening) and
expanded mentionable pops to the urban corridor, but by this point,
any remaining showers look sparse weak. Cannot rule out a strong
gust even in the absence of thunder given the strong flow aloft, but
the stable and stabilizing boundary layer will likely preclude
a damaging wind threat for our cwa. The SPC has shifted the
marginal risk of severe storms primarily out of our CWA (except
the poconos), which is quite reasonable given the 00z hi-res
simulations and forecast soundings overnight.

Other concern is timing the associated cold front, which will be
moving into the area fairly quickly late tonight. Sped up the timing
a little bit based on latest guidance and a general slow bias models
have in these regimes. May even see some clearing (with shift to
northwest winds) in the northwest CWA by daybreak.

Forecast lows are a statistical guidance continuity blend, with
readings in the 50s in the poconos and the 60s elsewhere except
perhaps the immediate coast. The forecast is somewhat low-confidence
owing to potential effects from precipitation and cold-frontal
timing uncertainty.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Saturday... The cold front will sag south of the region early
Saturday, becoming nearly stationary just south of our forecast
area. Generally expecting some cooler and drier weather across the
region on Saturday as northwest flow is across the region.

Saturday night through Sunday... The flow starts to turn more to the
north northeast by Sunday morning. High pressure will build to the
north of the region with the surface front off to our south. We kind
of get squeezed between the two systems and a stream of mid level
shortwaves move through our area on Sunday. While it won't be an
overly wet day across the region, we will see cloud cover increase
and a chance for showers will be present, especially across delmarva
and southern new jersey.

Monday through Tuesday... The high pressure to our north will remain
in place through at least Monday before starting to shift offshore
on Tuesday. The front to the south will try to push northward as a
warm front but that will be blocked by the strength of the high to
the north, suppressing much, if any, northward progress. The front
starts to push northward again late Monday into Tuesday as the
departing high removes the blocking across our area. The warm front
will lift through our area on Tuesday bringing increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms. With a couple of shortwaves rotating
through, we should have enough lift to support convection continuing
through Tuesday night, although it may be scattered or isolated.

Wednesday... A brief break in the weather may occur ahead of a cold
front arriving on Wednesday. The front will cross the region and
again we will see an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Southerly flow ahead of the front will increase
moisture across the region and pwats will start to rise near 2
inches, leading to efficient rainfall within any shower or storm
that develops. Although it looks like Wednesday will be a fairly
cloudy day, any breaks in the clouds will help increase surface
instability and help in the development of thunderstorms. As the
front pushes to the east, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
coverage from west to east. While some lingering showers may remain
into the overnight, we should start to see some drying out occur in
the developing northwest flow.

Thursday... The cold front pushes well south of our area, stalling
closer to the carolinas. High pressure will build across the
northern mid-atlantic and into new england on Thursday. As the high
slides across to our north, we should see the northwest flow turn
more to the north or northeast Thursday. If the high can build a
little further south, we may be able to squeeze out a dry day across
the region. However, with easterly flow developing, we could see
some scattered showers develop. Therefore, continue to mention a
chance for some showers in the forecast.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... CIGS appear to be lifting slowly across the area.

Though occasional lower MVFR CIGS may develop, especially at
rdg abe, gradual improvement is expected at the terminals, which may
remain predominantly or at least occasionallyVFR at the philly
terminals southeastward. Winds light southeasterly. Low confidence
in cigs; high confidence in winds.

Friday... Continued slow improvement with CIGS toVFR, even at
rdg abe. Southeast winds around 10 kts in the late morning becoming
south to southwest in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Friday night... CIGS may lower to near or even slightly below MVFR as
a cold front approaches. Cannot rule out a shower after midnight,
especially at rdg abe, but chances are too low for TAF inclusion at
this point. Southwest winds around below 10 kts becoming more
westerly late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Northwest to north winds
around 5 to 10 knot becoming north around 5 knots overnight. MVFR
conditions possible Saturday night, mainly at kmiv kacy.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Conditions may drop to
MVFR ifr at times in showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of
kphl. Northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots.

Monday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Conditions may drop to
MVFR ifr at times in showers and thunderstorms. East winds around 10
to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Higher gusts possible at
kacy.

Monday night through Tuesday... MVFR or lower conditions in showers
and thunderstorms. East winds around 10 to 15 knots becoming
southeast on Tuesday. Gusts around 20 knots possible.

Marine
Onshore flow this morning will veer to southerly during the
afternoon and increase. Advisory conditions are not expected during
the daytime hours, but gusts will approach or possibly even exceed
slightly 20 knots by late afternoon. As winds continue to veer to
southwesterly tonight, gusts should exceed 25 knots on all atlantic
waters through the overnight hours, gradually diminishing by
daybreak Saturday. Seas may approach five feet as well, though
models are trending a little bit lower.

Made no changes to the small craft advisory tonight. Gusts may
approach advisory levels on delaware bay, so will need to monitor
latest model output to determine if an advisory will be required
here as well. For now, conditions look too marginal.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday... West northwest winds on Saturday will turn
to the north and then northeast for late Saturday night through
Sunday. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet.

Monday through Tuesday... Tightening pressure gradient will allow for
winds to start gusting around 25 to 30 knots on Monday and
continuing through mid-day Tuesday. Seas will rise and exceed 5 feet
on Monday, possible by late Sunday night in the southern waters. A
small craft advisory will likely be needed.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk of rip currents today, as medium-to-
long period easterly swell continues with waves in the surf zone
of 3 to 5 feet.

Tides coastal flooding
Tolchester beach continues to rise and has exceeded minor flood
advisory levels. Therefore, we have issued a coastal flood
advisory for kent county, md through this morning.

A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the lower
eastern shore of maryland along chesapeake bay. The cambridge
gauge has crested and continues to fall. Expect some minor
flooding near church hill, kent island, denton, and other
locations near the bay, choptank river, and other tidal
tributaries.

Water remains trapped in delaware bay, the tidal delaware
river, and the back bays due to the persistent onshore flow.

However, high tide has passed at these gauges, and any spotty
minor flooding should slowly diminish through the early morning
hours.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt this morning for mdz012.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 am edt this morning for mdz015-
019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Saturday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Meola
aviation... Cms meola
marine... Cms meola
tides coastal flooding... Cms meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi29 min SE 5.1 G 8 68°F 73°F1024.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi29 min S 7 G 8 71°F 1023.7 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi35 min S 6 G 8.9 71°F 1023.6 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi29 min 71°F 68°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi29 min Calm G 4.1 71°F 78°F1023.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi29 min 72°F 1023.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi17 min SSE 11 G 12 71°F 76°F1024.8 hPa (+1.0)67°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi29 min S 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 74°F1024.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi107 min S 1.9 66°F 1024 hPa64°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi29 min S 5.1 G 8 69°F 69°F1024.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi107 min Calm 65°F 1024 hPa63°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi29 min 69°F 78°F1025.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi17 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 76°F1024.6 hPa (+1.1)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi35 min SSE 5.1 G 6 71°F 74°F1023.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi29 min SSW 5.1 G 8 70°F 76°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi32 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F69°F94%1024.4 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi82 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1024.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi23 minS 510.00 miOvercast74°F64°F74%1024.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi23 minno data mi72°F66°F82%1023.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi23 minS 310.00 miOvercast70°F66°F87%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5E5SE6SE5SE6E6E5E5E7E5E8E10SE10
G15
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1 day agoNW9N9N11N9N10W9NW8NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS7S5CalmSW5CalmW6NW5NW10
G15
--W8NW6W6NW6NW4W5NW5NW5NW7NW7NW5CalmW8NW4NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.