Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 3:51 AM EST (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 331 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 331 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will push southeast of the area today. Low pressure will develop and move off the north carolina coast tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Thursday through Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170544
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1244 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system and front will approach from the great
lakes region overnight. Another low will develop off the coast
and affect the weather overnight and early Wednesday. More high
pressure will build towards the area late this week and remain
for the weekend. Low pressure and a cold front will move toward
the middle atlantic region for the start of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Snow was falling across most of eastern pennsylvania and
northwestern new jersey around midnight. The leading edge of the
precipitation along and approaching the interstate 95 corridor
was falling as rain.

A cold front approaching from the west will move across our
region during the balance of the night. Meanwhile low pressure
will continue to take shape off the middle atlantic coast.

The precipitation will work its way eastward. The boundary
layer is expected to begin cooling and the snow rain line will
progress eastward reaching the coast before daybreak.

It continues to appear as though the more substantial snow will
become focused in northern and central new jersey toward
daybreak. We will keep the snow total forecast going but it may
be a bit high in spots, especially in parts of southeastern
pennsylvania. We will keep an eye on trends and we may make some
minor adjustments in our next update.

Temperatures are forecast to fall about 5 degrees by daybreak.

A northwest wind around 10 mph is expected to develop in our
region.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Thursday
The accumulating snow should be over by midday for just about
the entire area. However, very light snow or flurries could
linger or redevelop during the afternoon near the coast as the
upper low and associated upper-level jet streak approaches from
the southwest.

High temperatures range from the mid 20s in northeastern pa to
mid 30s in central southern nj, philadelphia, and delmarva.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
Main focus of the long term is the warmup late this week
through this weekend and a storm system moving through the
region early next week. Most of the focus today was on the first
36 hours of the forecast, so overall made few changes from the
previous shift.

Trough axis swings through the eastern seaboard Wednesday
night, with a broad surface high building into the mid-atlantic
and southeast for the rest of the week into the weekend. After a
small- scale perturbation moves through the northeast Thursday
night (which should be dry), midlevel zonal flow will be present
Friday through the weekend, allowing the surface high to slide
eastward and promoting southwesterly surface flow to develop
east of the appalachians this weekend.

This pattern will result in a lengthy dry period and a distinct
warming trend after a chilly Thursday (when heights thicknesses
will be lowest, owing to the proximity of the trough). Forecast
highs are in the 50s for philly this weekend, based on a
consensus blend of statistical guidance... Though I leaned a
little on the higher side of consensus given the tendency for
mos to be on the low side in warming patterns.

Operational models develop a strong surface cyclone in the
central plains this weekend (with downstream ridging further
contributing to warmth Sunday and Monday in our area) before
lifting it rapidly northeastward into the great lakes and
adjacent southeast canada early next week. A strong cold front
will progress through the east Monday and Tuesday, with showery
precipitation developing near the front. Temperatures will
likely be warm enough for liquid in most locations for the
event, with the exception being the far northwest CWA during the
precip's waning stages.

Regarding timing, models generally agree on Monday afternoon
through Monday night. Given such good agreement this far out,
boosted pops to high chance or likely during this time frame.

The greater uncertainty lies with the intensity of the
precipitation (given the southern origins of the system and the
warmth it advects downstream, there is some potential for decent
precipitation totals, especially if embedded convection can
develop), extent of cold air on the upstream side of the system
(i.E., precipitation type issues as the system departs), and the
speed with which the precipitation moves out before the colder
air moves in.

As previously mentioned, did not change the details during this
time frame too much, but my initial thoughts were to go on the
warm side and on the quick side given typical model biases with
northeast- progressing inland surface lows originating from the
southern southwestern u.S.

By midweek, temperatures will be slightly cooler, and
conditions should dry out.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Conditions lowering to ifr in snow. A generally
light accumulation at krdg, kabe and kttn. Little or no
accumulation at kpne, kphl, kilg, kmiv and kacy. A light and
variable wind becoming northwest around 8 to 10 knots.

Wednesday... Ifr in the morning improving toVFR for the
afternoon. The snow is forecast to end between about 1200z and
1400z at most locations. A northwest wind around 10 to 12 knots
gusting near 20 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts. High
confidence.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR with light west or southwest
winds. High confidence.

Marine
Overnight... Seas at our nearby offshore buoys continue to
remain elevated between 4-6 ft this afternoon despite a light
onshore wind. We extended the SCA into tonight with the latest
guidance keeping seas around 5 ft through tonight.

Wednesday... Nw winds will strengthen in response to a deepening
coastal low that tracks just to the east of our waters. Expect
wind gusts to increase from S to N across the region during the
day with gusts around 25 kt. Seas will be steady state between 4
and 6 ft. The SCA continues for the coastal waters. Additional
sca was issued for the lower de bay for winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday: freezing spray possible near the
coast and in delaware bay. Small craft advisory conditions for
lower delaware bay and the atlantic waters, with gusty northwest
winds and seas near 5 feet slowly diminishing by Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday night through Sunday: sub-advisory conditions and fair
weather expected.

Equipment
Sudlersville nwr conts off the air overnight. Rdg temp turned
off and our et staff hopefully can resolve tomorrow. Data went
bad in a gradual fashion beginning ard 2325z. Ptw and ged have
faa comms issues.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 11 am est this morning for paz054-
055.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
paz062.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for paz060-
061-101-103-105.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for njz008>010.

Winter storm warning until 11 am est this morning for njz001.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
njz007.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for anz431.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Iovino
short term... Klein
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Cms klein
equipment... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi52 min N 6 G 7 33°F 32°F1026.6 hPa (-0.4)
FSNM2 15 mi52 min NW 15 G 16 34°F 1025.8 hPa (-0.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi52 min WNW 8 G 8.9 34°F 1026.7 hPa (-0.4)
CPVM2 17 mi52 min 34°F 29°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi52 min N 6 G 8.9 34°F 33°F1026.3 hPa (-0.4)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi52 min 34°F 1026 hPa (-0.4)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi52 min NW 8 G 8.9 34°F 32°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi52 min NNW 5.1 G 8 34°F 32°F1026.3 hPa (-0.7)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi142 min N 1 30°F 1027 hPa29°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi52 min 35°F 32°F1025.3 hPa (-0.9)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi52 min NNW 8 G 9.9 35°F 31°F1025.7 hPa (-0.8)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi142 min NW 2.9 37°F 1025 hPa36°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi52 min 33°F 32°F1026.6 hPa (-0.6)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi52 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 34°F 33°F1026.8 hPa (-0.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi52 min NW 8 G 11 32°F 34°F1027.6 hPa (-0.0)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi52 min NNW 9.9 G 11 35°F 31°F1024.8 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi70 minWNW 45.00 miLight Snow34°F32°F93%1027.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi77 minNW 75.00 miFog/Mist34°F28°F81%1026.4 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.9 hrsN 48.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1026.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi58 minNW 67.00 miOvercast36°F30°F82%1026.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi58 minno data mi36°F30°F79%1026.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi58 minNW 105.00 miFog/Mist33°F30°F89%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3NW7NW5NW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW8NW7
G18
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G18
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G15
NW10NW10NW9NW5N5N3NW4N5N4NW3NW3NW4NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     0.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:52 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:44 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.50.40.30-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.30.611.11.21.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:51 AM EST     0.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:52 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-0.9-0.5-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.50.8110.80.4-0-0.5-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.