Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:12PM Saturday January 19, 2019 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 938 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft...building to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain through the day, then a chance of rain or snow showers through the night.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will move northwest of the area this evening, with the trailing cold front sweeping through on Sunday. High pressure will slowly build back in early next week. Another low pressure system will approach the region by Wednesday. A gale warning may be needed Sunday night and Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200224
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
An expansive area of low pressure will approach the region from the
west tonight and pass over our area overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning bringing a significant winter storm to the
region. Low pressure moves across southern new england then out to
sea late Sunday. Strong arctic high pressure will build quickly into
the mid-atlantic through the early part of next week resulting in
very cold and dry conditions. Another area of low pressure will move
across the great lakes and into southeastern canada late Tuesday
into Wednesday pushing a cold front into the region Wednesday.

Near term through Sunday
Rain snow line continues to creep to the north, and the
transition line is now along or north of a line from around
reading to doylestown to trenton. Across the lehigh valley,
southern poconos, and northern nj, moderate to locally heavy
snow continues. The rain snow line continues to lift to the
north, and shortly after midnight or so, expecting a wintry mix
of sleet and freezing rain, then a period of freezing rain
across carbon, monroe, and warren counties. MAX snow amounts in
the far northern areas will range from 6-8" (will bump up a bit
from earlier forecasts), along with up to 0.20" of ice. Winter
storm warnings remain in effect for the far northern zones, and
for now, will not make adjustments to the winter weather
advisories, as there may still be some wintry precip as that
line lifts north.

Timing: the bulk of the precip falls tonight through Sunday
morning with this winding down as the cold front moves through
during the 15- 19z time frame Sunday.

Winds: late tonight into Sunday morning, a very strong
southerly low level jet is expected to develop with 925 850 mb
winds progged to reach 70 90 knots over the area as the warm
sector moves in. There will be lots of moisture in play with
rain continuing at this time with some indications a convective
type line could develop even if it doesn't actually produce
lightning. Nevertheless, this could potentially bring very
strong, even damaging winds, down to the surface. Not confident
in this though and this will need to be handled as a "short-
fused" type product situation, if needed. Then, following the
passage of the cold front, expect strong NW winds to develop
potentially gusting 30-40+ mph tomorrow afternoon into the
evening along with rapidly falling temperatures. This could
result in at least some scattered power outages with more
significant problems possible in the far north in the areas that
still may get more snow ice.

Flash freeze: as mentioned above, strong cold front moves
through NW to SE late morning into the early afternoon with
rapidly dropping temps to values well below freezing. This will
result in quick refreezing of wet slushy surfaces causing very
ice conditions.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
The beginning of the week will feature deep winter arctic cold,
but dry conditions. Temperatures will continue the fall (from
Sunday) and drop into the single digits and low teens across
most areas. Mercury readings across the southern poconos may
reach as low as -5 by dawn Monday. As bad as the cold is, wind
chills will be brutal with sub-zero readings in most areas and
readings around -20 to -25 across the poconos. Proper
precautions against the cold will be required to be safely
outdoors Monday. Dry weather is expected Monday and into Tuesday
as high pressure builds in. Readings Tuesday morning will also
be very cold, but temperatures will moderate by days end back
into the low 30s S E and low mid 20s N w.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The midweek period looks unsettled as of now since another h5 trough
will be advancing from the midwest and low pressure is expected to
form along it. Another wet white storm is envisioned with
confidence on storm track and p-types low at this time. More
arctic cold looks to follow this system.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr and lower conditions as precipitation overspreads
the region from southwest to northeast. All rain expected at
miv and acy; precip has changed to rain at ilg, phl pne, and
ttn; rdg and abe start as snow then quickly go over to sleet and
freezing rain, then rain overnight. Main snow and ice
accumulations occur at rdg and abe. Low confidence on the timing
of the precipitation type changes. Easterly winds around 10
knots, turning southeast or south toward morning (some gusts to
20-25 knots possible overnight mainly at acy). A low- level
southerly jet around 2000 feet overnight into early Sunday of
40-50 knots results in low- level wind shear.

Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions to start, then rapidly improving by
late morning or afternoon as the precipitation ends. An abrupt wind
shift to the northwest occurs by midday with winds increasing to 15-
25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots (highest during the
afternoon evening). Low confidence on timing for improvement to
vfr.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Northwest winds 15-20
knots with gusts to around 30 knots, diminishing Monday night.

Tuesday...VFR. Northwest winds 10-20 knots, diminishing by late
afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday... Sub-vfr conditions possible with the chance
for some snow to a rain snow mix.

Marine
East to southeast winds tonight will increase to advisory
levels, then become more southerly early Sunday morning. The
passage of low pressure and a strong cold front will result in
an abrupt wind shift to northwesterly during Sunday with a rapid
increase in the winds as bitterly cold air pours in across the
region. The gales may not fully take hold until the afternoon or
evening, however will maintain the gale warning as is although
did extend the end time to 23z 6pm Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Gale warning through 23z 7pm
Monday due to a bitterly cold airmass and deep mixing. The warning
may need to be extended into a portion of Monday night. Due to the
bitterly cold air and strong winds, freezing spray is expected
especially later Sunday night through Monday. As of now, looks like
moderate ice accretion rates will be achieved and therefore issued a
freezing spray advisory.

Tuesday... The conditions (winds) are anticipated to be dropping
below small craft advisory early.

Wednesday and Thursday... Winds may increase to small craft advisory
criteria Wednesday then decrease through Thursday. Seas could remain
at 5 feet or higher on the ocean waters.

Hydrology
With the trend toward warmer solutions, models indicate that
the threat for heavy rain along the i-95 corridor has increased.

Consensus of operational model solutions suggests a swath of
1-2+ inches in this general area. These totals have been
observed to generate localized flooding on several occasions
during the past few months.

Additionally, there are indications that some of the rainfall
may result from convection, especially late tonight into early
Sunday morning. Should rainfall rates approach exceed half an
inch per hour, urban and small stream flooding is likely to
occur, especially in the quickly responding basins within and
surrounding the philadelphia metro.

River flooding is possible, but appears to be more likely if
qpf exceeds the current forecast (i.E., widespread totals of 2+
inches).

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore continues across the region, and will increase tonight
and into Sunday morning. With the approaching full moon, the
threat of coastal flooding will increase by Sunday morning's
high tide. However, winds are expected to become more southerly
late tonight, which should mitigate a more substantial coastal
flooding event. To this point, guidance continues to advertise
mainly minor flooding, though models do tend to exhibit a low
bias in these sorts of events. Notably, the stevens institute
ensemble guidance does suggest potential for spotty moderate
flooding, especially on the northern new jersey coast. Also
noteworthy is the potential for heavy rainfall tonight and
Sunday morning, which may exacerbate coastal flooding owing to
contributions from freshwater runoff. At this point, however,
think widespread minor flooding is more likely on the new jersey
and delaware atlantic coasts, along delaware bay, and the tidal
delaware river, for Sunday morning's high tide. Some locally
moderate coastal flooding remains possible.

As a result, we have issued a coastal flood advisory for the
above-mentioned areas. As flow will become strongly offshore by
Sunday afternoon, coastal flooding is not expected with high
tides following Sunday morning's.

At this time, coastal flooding is not expected for the eastern
shores of chesapeake bay.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Sunday for paz060>062-
103-105.

Flood watch through Sunday afternoon for paz070-071-101-102-
104-106.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 am to 3 pm est Sunday for
paz070-071-106.

Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Sunday for paz054-055.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Sunday for njz007>010.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 11 am est Sunday for
njz012>014-020>027.

Flood watch through Sunday afternoon for njz012>019.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to noon est Sunday for njz016.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 am to 3 pm est Sunday for
njz015-017>019.

Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Sunday for njz001.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 11 am est Sunday for
dez002>004.

Flood watch through Sunday afternoon for dez001.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to noon est Sunday for dez001.

Md... Flood watch through Sunday afternoon for mdz008.

Marine... Freezing spray advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Monday for
anz430-431-450>455.

Gale warning from 8 am Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for anz430-
431-450>455.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson mps
short term... Fitzsimmons johnson
long term... Fitzsimmons johnson
aviation... Gorse mps staarmann
marine... Gorse mps
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi29 min N 5.1 G 6 39°F 39°F1007.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi29 min NNW 6 G 7 37°F 1007.9 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi29 min 42°F 42°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi35 min ENE 7 G 8.9 37°F 38°F1007.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi29 min 41°F 1006.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi77 min ESE 11 G 12 42°F 38°F1008.4 hPa (-6.0)42°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi35 min E 9.9 G 12 37°F 38°F1008.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi107 min ESE 4.1 40°F 1008 hPa38°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi29 min ENE 8 G 9.9 37°F 35°F1008.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi107 min ESE 8.9 42°F 1011 hPa40°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi35 min 47°F 39°F1006.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi29 min ESE 30 G 34 41°F 40°F1006.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi29 min NNE 1 G 4.1 39°F 38°F1007.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi32 minNNE 41.75 miRain Fog/Mist37°F37°F100%1007.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi37 minESE 72.50 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist43°F42°F100%1006.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi23 minno data mi38°F36°F93%1007.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi23 minWNW 42.00 miRain Fog/Mist44°F39°F85%1007.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi23 minENE 42.00 miRain Fog/Mist37°F37°F100%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E6E6E3E5NE6E5NE7NE8E9NE5NE7NE4
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4SW3SW4SW3W3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE5NE4NE5E4E5E5E3NE3NE3NE3E4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:36 AM EST     0.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.40.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.81.11.31.41.20.90.60.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:59 AM EST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.