Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 732 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Widespread showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary front will remain south of the waters until a cold front moves into the area Monday. Weak high pressure can be expected Tuesday, followed by another weak front Wednesday. High pressure will return Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 282237
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
637 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system stalls over ontario tomorrow. Two cold
fronts associated with this low are expected to move through our
region, one on Monday, and another late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in over the region on
Thursday. Another low pressure system is expected to approach
the region Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
A weak short wave will move across the SRN areas this evening and
showers and perhaps an isolated TSTM will accompany it. We will have
high chc low likely pops across DELMARVA SE pa SRN nj this evening
for this shortwave. Later tonight, a more generalized area of
showers will affect the area with mostly chc pops in the grids for
this. Clouds will remain across the area all night, so low
temperatures will not be that cool. Readings will only fall into the
upper 50s (north) and low 60s elsewhere. Overall rainfall totals
will be mostly 1 10th to 1 4 inch, but locally higher totals in
isolated tstms.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday, memorial day, looks to feature cloudy conditions across the
area with some improvement later in the day. Showers will be across
the N E areas during the morning, but these will move away by
afternoon. Temperatures will be cool early, but then jump once the
clouds begin to thin. High temperatures will range from the low 70s
north to the low 80s over delmarva. Winds will switch from
onshore... To wrly at 5 to 10 knots.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
The main thing to watch through the long term period will be the mid
and upper level low that is expected to mostly stall out over
ontario early this week.

Monday night... Added fog to the forecast... Areas along the coast
and patchy inland. It clears aloft, though some cirrus at times.

That leaves Mondays stratus deck likely to settle to the sfc as
fog... Possibly dense in a light wind field with the weak sfc
ridge overhead.

Tuesday and Wednesday... A secondary cold front (the first one, a
rather weak and dissipating one is expected tomorrow) is expected to
move through the region either late Tuesday or early Wednesday at
the same time a mid level short wave trough digs along the south
side of the main low. Synoptic scale lift isn't especially
impressive through this time period, but there could be enough
instability both days to support some thunderstorms. Despite the
cold front, temperatures through this period should stay near or
even slightly above normal, with highs generally in the 70s and 80s.

Thursday... With a surface high building over the region, this looks
to be the day with the best chance of dry weather of the week. It
also looks like the coolest day of the work week, with temperatures
slightly below normal.

Friday through Sunday... As mentioned by the previous shift, the
details in this period are uncertain at this time as it will be
highly dependent on how the mid and upper level low evolves. At this
point, there are rather large differences both between models and
with run to run consistency. Therefore, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a guidance consensus through this period.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are across the area this afternoon as the onshore
flow continues. When the daytime heating developed earlier, some bkn
MVFR CIGS formed across SRN nj and delmarva. Conditions will lower
this evening with little confid in the timing of the occurrence.

Generally MVFR will develop around sunset and ifr will develop
overnight. Scattered showers (isolated thunder) will be across the
area as well. No enough of a chc for thunder to include in the tafs
attm. Winds will be mostly E to SE around 10 knots this afternoon
and 5 to 10 knots tonight. Monday... Low CIGS should continue into
the morning before improvement late.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... Some possible fog or low clouds to start
Tuesday, otherwise generallyVFR through Wednesday. There is a
chance for showers and thunderstorms each day which could also lead
to conditions belowVFR.

Thursday...VFR is anticipated with dry conditions.

Friday... Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. If any affect
the TAF sites, it may result in MVFR or lower conditions.

Marine
We will continue with the SCA flag for the northern nj coastal
waters as previously outlined. While conditions have been sub-sca
today, a gradual increase in seas is expected overnight with the
continuing SE flow across the waters. Scattered showers are expected
overnight. There is a chance for a thunderstorm too, mainly across
delaware bay and possibly the delaware ocean waters.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below
sca criteria. However, seas may begin to build above 4 ft on Friday.

Rip currents... Waves along the coast are forecast to be in the
2 to 3 foot range the rest of today with a period of 7 to 8
seconds. A southeast to east wind of 10-15 mph should continue.

It appears as though the risk for the development of dangerous
rip current will be low for much of the day. However, it may
begin to approach moderate toward evening as wind speeds
gradually increase.

The outlook for Monday is still a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents. We expect a 2-3 foot east or southeast swell
and a south or southwest wind to develop from southern nj southward
(atlantic and CAPE may counties in nj and sussex county de).

A somewhat enhanced but still low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents may develop for monmouth county and possibly
the beaches of northern ocean county nj where an east or northeast
wind of 15 mph may persist through the entire day.

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore flow continuing into the evening hours and the
continued high astronomical tides should result in another round
of minor coastal flooding tonight. As a result, the coastal
flood advisory continues for the high tide cycle tonight. It
covers the coastal counties of new jersey and delaware, as well
as the counties along delaware bay and the lower delaware river
up to the area just below the commodore barry bridge.

Based on the guidance and on the fact that the astronomical
tides are decreasing as we move away from the new moon,
tonight's coastal flood advisory should be the last one for a
while.

Climate
May rainfall as 2 pm today:
acy 7.11 inches ranked #2. Record 8.80 1948. Por 1874.

Phl 6.12 inches. Ranked #11 record 9.46 1894. Por 1872. #10 is
6.65" just last year.

Ilg 5.70 inches. Ranked #16. Record 11.99 1894. Por 1894.

May rainfall in central de without todays amts... Ie through the 27th
smyrna 7.33
kenton 6.10
dover 6.03 and 6.50 (two different deos reported sites)
townsend 5.61
blackbird 5.63

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for njz012>014-
020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon edt Monday
for anz450>452.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag johnson 636 Monday night
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate... Drag 636


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi40 min E 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 67°F1011 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 8 mi30 min E 9.7 G 12 65°F 1011.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi40 min E 5.1 G 7 65°F 1010.8 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi40 min E 8 G 11 65°F 1010.7 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi40 min 65°F 65°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi40 min ESE 6 G 8 66°F 68°F1010.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi30 min E 9.7 G 12 65°F 1010.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi40 min 65°F 1010 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi70 min ENE 8 G 8.9 65°F 65°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 25 mi30 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 1011 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi40 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 68°F1011.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi100 min ENE 1.9 65°F 1010 hPa62°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi40 min ESE 5.1 G 7 65°F 67°F1011.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi40 min 64°F 67°F1011 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi100 min ESE 5.1 63°F 1011 hPa63°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi40 min 66°F 71°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi30 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 1010.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi40 min NE 1 G 2.9 67°F 67°F1009.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi40 min E 7 G 11 64°F 66°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi25 minNE 310.00 miLight Rain66°F66°F100%1011.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi20 minE 510.00 miOvercast64°F62°F94%1010.8 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi72 minESE 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist64°F62°F94%1011.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi76 minENE 48.00 miOvercast67°F66°F97%1010.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi76 minno data mi67°F64°F93%1010.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi16 minENE 79.00 miLight Rain65°F64°F100%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E7SE5E7E7E6CalmSE7E6E5E5NE3
1 day agoW14W12W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3SE3SE5E3CalmNW4NE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE6CalmCalmSW3W7SW3SW6SW5SW4W7W8SW6W7W6W12W15
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Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
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Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:17 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.30.20.30.611.51.82.12.121.71.30.90.50.30.20.40.60.91.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:14 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:21 PM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.40.10.511.21.310.60-0.5-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.5-00.40.60.60.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.