Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 21, 2018 3:28 PM EDT (19:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 248 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night...
This afternoon..NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 248 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An area of low pressure will move near the delmarva coastline today before another low approaches from the west on Sunday and stalls out into early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible from late Sunday through Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211539
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1139 am edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure located along the north carolina coast early this
morning will move northward. The low is forecast to pass through
our region tonight. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure
located over lower lake michigan will move slowly to the south.

The low is expected to reach the southeastern states on Sunday
night and it should remain there during the first half of the
new week. High pressure located over the western north atlantic
is anticipated to gain some influence over our weather during
the middle of the week. A cold front may arrive from the
northwest on Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are beginning to lift into
the southern portions of delaware and eastern shore of maryland
this morning, well north of the strengthening coastal low. This
is associated with an enhanced area of lift and moisture as an
initial short wave vorticity impulse moves into the area.

Additional showers are developing across the area and will
continue to develop through the day as well. This will be the
first of a couple of moderate to heavy bands of rainfall that
move across the area. This first band will continue to slide
north through the day, but a second short wave vorticity impulse
just north of the advancing surface low will eventually catch
up to the first as the surface low approaches the area from the
south. Enhanced lift and moisture will develop again, leading to
another band of moderate to heavy rainfall that will develop to
our south later this afternoon and move into our area late in
the day and into the evening hours. The flash flood watch will
remain in place as the forecast heavier accumulations look to be
within the watch area.

As the low gathers strength, the pressure gradient will tighten
and we will see winds become rather gusty through this
afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds around 20 to 25 mph
will certainly add to the raw feel of the day. Winds may gust
around 30 to 40 mph along the coastal strip of new jersey and
delaware.

A rather cool day for late july as extensive cloud cover,
strong easterly flow, and rain will keep temperatures down
through the day. Highs will only reach into the 70s across the
region today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
The coastal low pushes northward, rather quickly, through our
forecast area this evening and making it well into upstate new
york by daybreak.

As the low pushes to the north, the axis of heavy rain will
shift northward. Convection should diminish, especially after we
lose any potential solar contribution (even if indirect),
leaving some scattered showers from south to north across the
region as we head towards Sunday morning.

With overcast skies, we won't see temperatures drop off much
through night. Lows will remain mild and generally in the 60s
across the region. Lows may drop into the upper 50s across the
higher terrain and remain int he lower 70s along the coasts of
new jersey and delaware.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Unsettle weather is expected from Sunday through the new week.

A mid level low is forecast to be located over ohio on Sunday
morning. The feature is anticipated to drift slowly southward
and it is expected to stall over the southeastern states from
Monday through Wednesday. The mid level low should become an
open wave by Thursday before beginning to drift to the east.

Surface high pressure over the western north atlantic should
gain some influence over our weather during the middle of the
week.

The expected weather pattern will result in the development of
a deep southerly flow of moist air into and over our region. As
a result, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day from Sunday through Thursday. The chance of precipitation
will be enhanced by impulses traveling in the mid level flow.

Those impulses are somewhat difficult to time in the forecast.

Also, there should be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours due to daytime
heating and increased instability. A surface trough may drop
into our region from the northwest on Thursday, also enhancing
the potential for rain at that time.

A mid level long wave trough is expected to settle over eastern
canada late in the week. The trough is forecast to begin
influencing the great lakes and the northeastern states. It may
push a cold front into our region on Friday which should signal
a change in our upcoming wet weather pattern.

The very humid air will likely result in a relatively narrow
diurnal temperature range from Sunday through Friday. Daytime
highs should favor the 80s, with overnight lows ranging mostly
from the upper 60s to the middle 70s.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions continue late this morning into the early
afternoon for the TAF sites. However, conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR through the afternoon in showers from south
to north. Ifr or lower conditions possible in heavy rain this
afternoon, mainly from kphl and south. Strong east winds around
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will be stronger
towards the coast with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots possible at
kacy.

Tonight... Poor flying conditions with ifr expected in showers
and thunderstorms. East to southeast winds around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up 25 knots through around 06z before the early
part of tonight dropping off overnight. Conditions will
gradually improve from south to north late tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday... Low ceilings and visibility restrictions are expected
in the morning with conditions improving mainly toVFR in the
afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind
5 to 10 knots becoming southeast around 10 knots.

Sunday night and Monday... Variable conditions with showers
likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Southeast wind around 10
knots.

Monday night and Tuesday... Variable conditions with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Variable conditions with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. South wind 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters of new
jersey and delaware, and has been expanded into delaware bay.

Winds and seas will increase out of the east through today as a
low pressure system starts to move up the mid-atlantic coast.

With a strong pressure gradient in place, winds will gust at
least small craft advisory levels into the early afternoon, with
gales developing through this afternoon and into this evening.

Seas will remain elevated through tonight. Winds will start to
decrease tonight and we should start to lose the gale force
gusts overnight. Gales are expected to diminish from south to
north late tonight, ending across the northern waters by
daybreak.

Outlook...

Sunday... Wave heights on our ocean waters are expected to
remain in the 5 to 6 foot range. As a result, a small craft
advisory will likely be needed at that time.

Sunday night and Monday... Small craft advisory conditions are
expected with southerly wind gusts around 25 knots. Wave heights
on our ocean waters should be in the 5 to 6 foot range.

Monday night and Tuesday... Wave heights on our ocean waters are
expected to remain around 5 feet range. As a result, a small
craft advisory will likely be needed at that time.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

a strong low pressure system will move up the east coast today.

This will create a strong onshore flow and seas will build
quickly through the day. As a result, we expect rough conditions
along the coast and have issued a high risk for the formation
of dangerous rip currents for today.

The surf is expected to remain agitated on Sunday as low
pressure moves to our north. As a result, there will likely be
at least a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents along the coasts of delaware and new jersey at that
time.

An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure moves up the middle atlantic coast today, there
will continue to be a southeast to east wind along the coasts
of delaware and new jersey. The onshore flow will cause tide
levels to increase above what they should be today.

While spotty minor flooding is expected along the coasts of
delaware and new jersey, there should be enough of a push into
delaware bay and the far lower delaware river to cause
widespread minor flooding in those areas. The tidal flooding
will likely be compounded by heavy rain around the time of high
tide. As a result, we have issued a coastal flood advisory for
kent and new castle counties in delaware, and for cumberland and
salem counties in new jersey. It is in effect from 4:00 pm
until 9:00 pm.

This should be a one high tide cycle event. The low is forecast
to move to our north tonight,

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for paz060-070-071-101>106.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for njz015>027.

Coastal flood advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt
this evening for njz016-021.

De... High rip current risk through this evening for dez004.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for dez001>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt
this evening for dez001-002.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt Sunday for
anz450>455.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Robertson meola
short term... Meola
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino robertson meola
marine... Iovino robertson meola
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 12 68°F 80°F1011.6 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi41 min NE 19 G 24 68°F 1011.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi41 min NE 18 G 21 69°F 1011.3 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi41 min 70°F 70°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi47 min ENE 15 G 23 68°F 82°F1011.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi39 min ENE 21 G 31 71°F 1010.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi47 min 71°F 1010.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi29 min NE 27 G 30 70°F 79°F1010.3 hPa (-3.6)70°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi41 min ENE 11 G 14 69°F 82°F1013.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi119 min NNE 2.9 65°F 1012 hPa65°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi41 min ENE 13 G 17 70°F 76°F1013.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi41 min 71°F 81°F1012.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi119 min NE 5.1 71°F 1013 hPa71°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi41 min 73°F 80°F1009.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi39 min ENE 23 G 29 74°F 1011.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi41 min NNE 6 G 15 68°F 82°F1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi39 minN 02.00 miRain70°F69°F100%1012.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi54 minNE 9 G 234.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist70°F68°F94%1010.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi35 minNE 13 G 231.50 miRain Fog/Mist73°F69°F87%1010.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi35 minno data mi70°F66°F90%1012 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi35 minNE 14 G 204.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F66°F97%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6E7E10
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E5E4E4CalmE7E5E6E9E10NE9NE10N13N3Calm
1 day agoE7E5SE5SE5S3S4CalmCalmCalmSE11SE7SE7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE7SE5SE7SE8SE9
2 days agoN4NW6CalmNW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4N5CalmNE3NE3E3NE4E8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
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Sat -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.61.81.91.91.71.41.10.90.70.60.70.91.11.21.31.21.10.80.60.40.30.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:45 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.60.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-00.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.