Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:20PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:47 PM EDT (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 738 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Saturday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft... Except around 3 ft near the mouth of the patapsco. Scattered showers this evening.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will strengthen as it moves toward the canadian maritimes through tonight. High pressure will return for the weekend before low pressure and its associated cold front impact the waters early next week. The gale warning may be need to be continued into Saturday morning, but otherwise a small craft advisory will likely be needed Saturday into Saturday night. Small craft advisories may also be needed Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230014
afdphi
area forecast discussion... Resent
national weather service mount holly nj
814 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
The coastal storm which has been impacting the region will continue
to pull away tonight. A cold front will also move through tonight,
with gusty northwest winds continuing through Saturday. High
pressure will bring dry and mild weather on Sunday. A cold front
will move through Monday with showers possible. A large high
pressure center will bring dry but cool weather for the middle part
of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The areal coverage of the showers is decreasing now and the
rain graupel showers are mostly passing offshore. Lingering
activity through 11pm or so will be covered by small chc pops or
slgt chc pops in the fcst. Snow showers will be possible in the
late overnight across the SRN poconos. Gusty W to NW winds will
continue as the deep low well offshore continues to move away.

Only minor adjustments were made to temps winds for the evening
updates.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
The low over the canadian maritimes finally lifts away late
Saturday, and high pressure will build in from the west. Dry
conditions on tap, but gusty northwest winds continue, until
finally subsiding late.

Sunny with highs in the 40s to low 50s, except in the 30s in the
southern poconos.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... A fairly quiet extended forecast across the area, with
the exception of a strong cold frontal passage Monday night. A
shortwave trough will move toward the region, driving a weak
surface low to move across the central u.S. Toward the mid-
atlantic along a cold front. This shortwave will reinforce the
longwave trough to our northeast as it does so, thus ushering in
colder air. High pressure will build across the great lakes
into the region Tuesday. By Thursday, the high will move off the
coast, leading to milder return flow as we close out the
workweek. More rain is possible as we head into Friday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. There is some indication
that an area of low pressure may develop off the southeast coast
by Friday, however this remains uncertain and will need to
continue to be monitored.

Dailies...

Saturday night and Sunday... Quiet with temperatures
near normal. Lows Saturday in the mid 20s north to the low 30s
across southern delware. Highs recover to seasonable values as
southwesterly flow develops ahead of the next cold front. Most
locations will top out in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday night and Monday... Precipitation overspreads the region by
early Monday morning. Mild temperatures continue with lows
staying in the 40s for the most part. Highs will range from the
mid 40s across the southern poconos to the low 60s across
southern delaware. Precip looks to stay all rain during the day
Monday, though a changeover to snow may begin by evening across
the southern poconos.

Monday night and Tuesday... Precip continues across the region as
the cold front continues to advance southward. As the freezing
line makes its way southward, rain will transition to a mix of
rain and snow, eventually transitioning to all snow. It is still
a little unclear how far south this will occur, but at this
point, it looks as if temperatures will cool enough before
precip moves out the area for some snow showers to make their
way into the greater philadelphia metro. Any accumulation would
be very light, though it is still too far out to discuss totals
at this point. Precip should move out the area by Tuesday
afternoon as skies begin to clear. However, it will be much
cooler Tuesday with highs only making it into low 40s for much
of the area.

Tuesday night through Friday night... A relatively quiet period
overall. Cold Tuesday night with lows dropping below freezing
across the area, even into the teens across the southern
poconos. Highs gradually moderating Wednesday through Friday, as
high pressure works its way from the great lakes to the western
atlantic; many locations look to make it into the upper 50s to
near 60 by Friday. Uncertainty in the exact timing of rain
Friday and Friday night, as a cold front makes its way toward
the mid-atlantic, while a wave of low pressure rides along the
stalled cold front to our south from earlier in the workweek.

Went with a blended approach for now, including only a slight
chance for showers early Saturday morning.&&

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Lingering shower activity should dissipate soon after
0z. GenerallyVFR, although occasional MVFR ceilings possible
at rdg and abe and cannot rule out a passing snow shower at
those sites through midnight. Wnw winds remain elevated at 15 to
20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday...VFR. NW winds still around 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35
kt. By mid to late afternoon, winds should start to diminish with
gusts falling below 30 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Sunday night...VFR, except MVFR possible late
Sunday night. Wnw winds Saturday night will become westerly then
southwesterly on Sunday and through Sunday night. Lingering
gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible early Saturday night, otherwise
speeds 5 to 10 kt.

Monday-Monday night... MVFR and possibly ifr Monday with rain
showers. Winds shifting from southwesterly to westerly to
northerly on Monday with speeds 5 to 10 kt.VFR by Monday night
with winds northerly or northeasterly at around 10 kt with gusts
to 20 kt.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming
easterly at 5 to 10 kt on Wednesday. Gusts to 20 kt possible
Tuesday morning.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all waters. Northwest
winds 20-30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt gusts through tonight.

Showers early.

Saturday... Northwesterly gales continue for much of this
period, but wind speeds should gradually drop off late Saturday
into Saturday night.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday... Sub SCA conditions with northwesterly winds
of 10 to 15 knots. Some higher gusts possible Sunday and Monday
afternoon of 15 to 20 knots. Wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday... SCA conditions possible with northerly winds 20 to 25 knots,
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Waves of 4-7 feet
possible.

Wednesday through Friday... Sub SCA conditions with northerly
winds of 10 to 15 knots Wednesday turning more southeasterly by
Friday with speeds dropping to 5 to 10 knots. Waves generally 2
to 4 feet.

Hydrology
Much of the precipitation is winding down across the area. It
has been more showery this evening with some graupel mixed in.

Many of the gages that were rising earlier today have crested
and are now falling. The exceptions are:
the gage at pemberton on the north branch rancocas is expected
to remain below flood stage, but slowly rise towards actions
stage tomorrow.

The gage at blackwells mills on the millstone river will climb above
action stage late tonight, but is forecast to remain below
flood stage. It will begin falling by Saturday morning.

The gage at pine brook on the passaic river will climb above action
stage shortly and then continue to slowly climb to near flood stage
Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... O'hara
short term... Franklin
long term... Davis
aviation... Franklin o'brien po
marine... Davis franklin
hydrology... Rk po


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi29 min 46°F 48°F1005.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi29 min 45°F 1005.6 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi35 min 44°F 1005.5 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi29 min 45°F 26°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi35 min 45°F 47°F1005.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi29 min 44°F 1006 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi47 min WNW 23 G 25 45°F 45°F1006.7 hPa (+2.7)28°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi35 min 46°F 47°F1003.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi137 min NW 8 46°F 1005 hPa38°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi29 min 44°F 43°F1003.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi35 min 1003 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi137 min WSW 5.1 48°F 1001 hPa34°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi35 min 46°F 48°F1005.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi29 min 45°F 46°F1003 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi35 min 45°F 49°F1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi62 minW 18 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy45°F28°F53%1005.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi67 minWNW 14 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F30°F57%1005.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi57 minW 12 G 227.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F32°F61%1003.7 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi53 minno data mi45°F24°F44%1005.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi53 minWNW 10 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F28°F50%1006 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi53 minWNW 18 G 2910.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy43°F28°F56%1005.7 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N10N3NW5NW11NW15
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1 day agoE7E8E8E4CalmE3NE3CalmCalmN4NE5NE5CalmCalmCalmNW3N5NE4NE3NE5N15E11NE15NE16
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmNE4E6E9

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
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Fri -- 02:36 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:39 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:20 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0-00.20.50.91.31.51.51.41.10.70.3-0-0.2-0.20.10.40.81.11.31.21

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:37 AM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:12 PM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1-0.7-0.30.20.711.10.90.60-0.5-0.9-1-1-0.7-0.20.30.70.90.80.60.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.