Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brooklyn Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:37PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 432 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the north tonight before stalling out near the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure will track along the boundary, passing through the waters Wednesday and the boundary will drop farther south as a cold front Thursday. High pressure will briefly build toward the waters Friday before moving offshore during the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brooklyn Park CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181824
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
224 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain off of the mid-atlantic coast through
this evening. A cold front will approach the area tonight before
stalling out over central virginia Tuesday. Low pressure will
track along the boundary, passing through our area Wednesday.

The boundary will drop to our south as a cold front Thursday
through Friday. High pressure will develop off the atlantic
during the weekend and a cold front may approach by early next
week.

Near term through tonight
Surface high pressure will remain over the southeastern conus
into the atlantic ocean while and upper-level high builds
overhead. A west to southwest flow will around the surface high
will usher in high humidity while subsidence from the upper-
level high produces hot conditions. The heat and humidity will
lead to high heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees for many
locations through early this evening. A heat advisory is in
effect for the eastern panhandle of west virginia and washington
county maryland where the criteria for a heat advisory is 100
degrees. A head advisory is also in effect along the i-95
corridor from fredericksburg to baltimore where the criteria is
105 degrees. Elsewhere, heat indices are most likely to range
from the mid and upper 90s west of the blue ridge mountains to
the lower 100s east of the blue ridge mountains. Confidence was
too low for a heat headline across these areas at this time.

Max air temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s for most
locations.

The heat and humidity has led to an unstable atmosphere. Terrain
circulation and a weak pressure trough will act as lifting
mechanisms to produce isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the blue ridge mountains and shenandoah
valley this afternoon. This activity will propagate toward the
metro areas late this afternoon and evening, but convection
should dissipate shortly after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating. Still feel that coverage will be isolated widely
scattered due to the weak lifting mechanisms, weak shear
profiles and subsidence aloft. Having that been said, a couple
strong to perhaps severe storms cannot be ruled out due the high
heat and humidity.

A cold front will approach late tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will attempt to propagate into
our northern and central areas toward morning. Latest thinking
is that most of this should weaken due to a downsloping low-
level flow and unfavorable timing. Will continue with the slight
chance chance for a couple showers and thunderstorms.

In southern parts of the CWA where it will remain clearer, some
patchy fog is possible overnight. Lows will be in the 70s to
around 80.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The cold front will drop south Tuesday morning through our area
before stalling out near the potomac river Tuesday afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions are expected again, but for locations
near and north of the boundary it will not be quite as hot and
humid as Monday. The most intense heat and humidity is expected
across central virginia with heat indices around 100 to 105
degrees possible. There will be an increasing chance for showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be near and south of the boundary across
central virginia and the potomac highlands. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing torrential downpours along with locally
gusty winds hail. Despite drier conditions over the last several
days, intense rainfall rates may cause localized flood flash
flood issues.

The boundary will remain nearly stationary Tuesday night, and
low pressure will track along the boundary Wednesday, passing
through our area. Coverage in convection may dissipate overnight
Tuesday due to the loss of daytime heating, but more widespread
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire area
later Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Shear profiles will be a
bit stronger Wednesday, and instability will be significant.

Therefore, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential
downpours along with gusty winds hail. The boundary may begin to
shift farther south later Wednesday night as the low moves off
to the east.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Compared to yesterday, model guidance has trended further
south with the positioning of a surface front for Thursday. The
deterministic euro now keeps most of our area dry on Thursday,
while the GFS keeps the entire area rain-free. The eps has also
trended drier, but still suggests that some showers can't be
ruled out. The best chance for any residual showers would be
across southern portions of the forecast area, which will be
closer to the frontal boundary.

On Friday attention will turn to an upper-level low located over the
central mississippi valley. Winds will shift from easterly to
southerly as this system begins to approach from the west. Model
guidance differs on rain chances Friday afternoon, but some showers
can't be ruled out as weak low-level warm advection starts to occur.

Moving into the weekend, the upper-level low is expected to shear
out into more of an open wave as it progresses towards the great
lakes. Showers and storms will be possible out ahead of this system
Friday night though Saturday night. In association with this trough,
a seasonably strong wind field will overspread the area. Both the
gfs and euro show around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear over the area
Saturday afternoon, with varying levels of instability (euro: 500-
1000 ml cape, gfs: 1000-2000 mlcape). Predictability is low this far
out, but we will need to monitor the potential for some stronger
storms Saturday afternoon. Model guidance begins to diverge beyond
Saturday, but some rainfall can't be ruled out on Sunday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions are expected most of the time through tonight.

Patchy fog cannot be ruled out toward morning. An isolated
shower thunderstorm is possible this afternoon for kcho and kmrb
and perhaps early this evening for the terminals to the east.

However, most areas will remain dry.

A cold front will stall out near the potomac river later Tuesday
and Tuesday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
near the boundary. The best chance for stronger storms will be
near kcho. Low pressure will pass through the area Wednesday and
there is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the entire area.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout much of the long term period, potentially leading to
some periods of sub-vfr conditions at terminals.

Marine
A cold front will approach the waters through tonight before
stalling out nearby on Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds may
approach SCA criteria near the front overnight into Tuesday
morning, but confidence is too low for a headline at this time.

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through early this
evening... But most areas should remain dry. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible near the cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening, and some of these storms may contain gusty winds.

Low pressure will pass through the waters Wednesday, and there
is a likelihood for showers and thunderstorms, some of which
may contain gusty winds. Convection may begin to dissipate
overnight Wednesday behind the departing low.

Winds are expected to stay below the SCA threshold
thought the long term period, so no advisories are expected.

However, intermittent showers and thunderstorms will be possible
at times throughout the long term period.

Climate
Well above normal temperatures are forecast today through
Tuesday. Below is a list of daily record warm temperatures.

Washington dc area (dca)
date record high record warm low
june 18 97 (1944) 77 (2014, 1957)
june 19 99 (1994) 75 (2011, 1994, 1981, 1978)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept
at ronald reagan washington national airport since 1945.

Additional temperature records observed downtown date back to
1872.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
date record high record warm low
june 18 97 (1957, 1944) 75 (1957)
june 19 99 (1994) 74 (1905)
temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept
at baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport since 1950. Additional temperature records observed
downtown date back to 1872.

Dulles va area (iad)
date record high record warm low
june 18 94 (2007, 2006) 73 (2017)
june 19 98 (1994) 71 (2014)
temperature records for the dulles va area have been kept at
washington dulles international airport since 1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz003-011-013-
014-016-504-506.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz031-052>056.

Wv... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl kjp
marine... Bjl kjp
climate... Dfh rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 3 mi48 min SSW 8 G 11 91°F 1012.9 hPa
FSNM2 3 mi48 min SSW 7 G 12 91°F 1013.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 4 mi54 min WSW 6 G 9.9 93°F 78°F1012.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi48 min 88°F 1013.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 18 mi36 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 1014.1 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi48 min 81°F 75°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 18 mi48 min S 7 G 11 88°F 78°F1013.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 23 mi66 min S 15 G 15 80°F 77°F1015.2 hPa (-2.1)74°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi156 min SSW 4.1 88°F 1015 hPa72°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi48 min S 9.9 G 11 88°F 76°F1013.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 11 90°F 78°F1013.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi36 min SSE 14 G 18 80°F 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD5 mi72 minno data mi97°F72°F45%1013.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD5 mi72 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F73°F52%1013.4 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi76 minSSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F78°F71%1014.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD13 mi69 minS 610.00 mi90°F73°F59%1014.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi72 minS 1410.00 miLight Rain88°F73°F61%1014.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi71 minS 1010.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1014.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi69 minSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F72°F52%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE5SE4SE3S3SE6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5S64S8W5S7SW7SW5
1 day agoSW6NW4S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmN3Calm33S5S4SE7E7
2 days agoNE6N8N43CalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmW8W8--W9W55

Tide / Current Tables for Hawkins Point, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Hawkins Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:52 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.60.50.40.50.71.11.51.81.91.91.71.410.70.50.30.30.50.91.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:14 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:23 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.300.50.8110.70.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.20.60.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.