Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Brooklyn Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:17PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:33 AM EDT (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 432 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through late tonight...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming light. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure has moved east of nova scotia. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brooklyn Park CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230759
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
359 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

High pressure has moved off the coast of nova scotia. A frontal
boundary is situated over the mississippi valley with an area
of low pressure over southern manitoba. The front will push into
the mid atlantic tonight before becoming wrapped into the
northern low once it moves over the upper great lakes. Upper
troughing will remain north of the region during the second
half of the week.

Near term today
After an extended period of tranquil weather the weather pattern
will become much more complex for the next 24-36 hours. As
written in the synopsis high pressure has pushed east of
atlantic canada while weak pressure frontal boundary stretches
the length of just east of the mississippi river. Another area
of low pressure is centered near winnipeg. This is associated
with a developing upper level trough.

As the high moves away both low pressure areas will push east.

Over the next 18-24 hours these two will merge into an upper
level low over the upper great lakes. For the day expect to see
increasing clouds but a continuation of the above average
temperatures. Highs in the mid 70s except cooler in the west
where cloud cover will be greater.

Precipitation chances will increase spread east as the day

Speaking of temperatures - according to our daily climate
summaries iad has been 6.2 degrees above normal so far this
month. Dca is 6.4 degrees above. Bwi 6.5 above.

Dca is 1.58" below for the month on precipitation. Bwi 0.96"
below. Iad 0.81".

Short term tonight through Wednesday
Tonight looks like the most active period time of weather. Front
will be crossing the forecast area between 00z and 12z, with the
band moving east of the mountains after 03z. Ahead of the front winds
are expected to be 30-40 knots at 2000 feet. The winds will be
turning in that layer as well. The missing ingredient will be
cape. But area is outlooked overall as being in a marginal risk
east of the mountains - a sliver of nelson county is included
in slight risk. Still, gusty showers with isolated thunder can
be expected, and given that low level wind field we'll have to
keep eyes on the radar this evening into the overnight hours.

Qpf of around 1" can be expected. Lows in the 60s east of the
mountains, 50s west.

Tuesday the front moves off the coast - but models really don't
take it very far offshore. As a result we have chance pops over
much of the region. QPF will be low. Wind field will still be
out of the southwest, so temperatures will still be quite warm
for late october. Much of the region will top out in the lower

Afterwards the upper trough will draw closer to the northeast
us. Temperatures Tuesday night will still be above normal, but
somewhat closer to normal as lows drop back into the upper 40s
east of the mountains. Likewise Wednesday's highs will be in the
lower to mid 60s, much more like what a "normal" late october
would be.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Ridging will build back into the region later Wednesday night into
Thursday and remain in place through at least Friday. At the same
time, a low pressure system will track from the upper midwest,
through the great lakes region, and then northeastward into canada
towards hudson bay. The associated cold front will gradually push
eastward, moving into the mid-atlantic states during the
Saturday Sunday time period. Potent upper level energy diving
southeastward behind the front may also act to help develop an area
of low pressure along the front before pushing eastward offshore.

In terms of sensible weather, fair weather is expected for
Thursday Friday with chilly but seasonable morning lows (30s 40s)
and near or above normal highs (60s-70). Chances for rain will then
increase over the weekend, especially on Sunday as the frontal
system passes through. Temperatures may be above normal on Saturday
at least prior to frontal passage, but will fall below after frontal

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
Models have been insistent on dense fog forming. However it
appears that a low cloud deck is now taking shape, as both dca
and bwi have dropped to around 500 feet in the past 30 minutes.

We will keep track of these during the next several hours.

Ceilings should becomeVFR by 14z.

Tonight will be active as a line of showers isolated
thunderstorms moves through the mid atlantic. There will be a
strong low level wind field associated with this. Showers could
bring 40 knots to the surface, and there will be low level speed
and directional shear as well.

Showers subVFR ceilings will be possible Tuesday morning east
of the blue ridge thenVFR. Fog will be possible Tuesday night.

PredominantlyVFR expected Wednesday night through Friday. However
there is the possibility of fog br and sub-vfr conditions each
morning, mainly cho mrb.

Sca in effect this afternoon for the larger waters of the
bay potomac. Tonight showers could bring 35+ knot winds to the
waters. As a result a gale warning is in effect for those
larger waters with an SCA in effect for the others. This may
need to be upgraded as well.

Sca may be required for Tuesday.

Conditions should return to sub-sca levels Wednesday night and
persist through Friday as high pressure builds into the region.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels are expected to rise rapidly later today and tonight as
strong southerly flow spreads across the area. Minor flooding is
likely at the more sensitive sites of annapolis and straits point
but also possible at all sites. Highest risk will be during
tonight's and Tuesday's high tide cycles. Water levels should fall
by Wednesday as winds turn westerly.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Tuesday for

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz538-542.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz530-535-536.

Products... Woody! Mjm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 3 mi45 min E 7 G 7 63°F 1024.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 4 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 61°F 70°F1024.1 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 11 mi33 min S 7.8 G 12 63°F 66°F1024.7 hPa (-0.8)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi45 min 65°F 1023.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 18 mi33 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 68°F1 ft1024 hPa (-0.9)
CPVM2 18 mi45 min 63°F 63°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 18 mi45 min E 1 G 1.9 60°F 66°F1024.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 23 mi33 min SE 8 G 8 65°F 68°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi63 min Calm 52°F 1024 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi45 min W 1 G 1.9 62°F 67°F1024.2 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 35 mi33 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 69°F1024.6 hPa (-1.1)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi33 min SE 7.8 G 12 67°F 68°F1 ft1025.2 hPa (-0.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 65°F1025 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD5 mi1.7 hrsno data mi62°F60°F93%1024.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD5 mi39 minNE 43.00 miFog/Mist61°F61°F100%1024.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi48 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist63°F62°F100%1025.1 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD13 mi48 minN 02.50 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1025.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi1.7 hrsSE 78.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1024.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi53 minSE 74.00 miFog/Mist63°F60°F94%1024.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi48 minN 00.50 miOvercast59°F58°F99%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmE5E3SE4E6SE6SE5SE7SE7SE5SE3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE4
1 day agoW3CalmCalmE4SE43SE4E4E7E6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW5W6W6NW9NW6NW64NW86NW73NW34W3W3NW3NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hawkins Point, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Hawkins Point
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Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.