Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Holiday, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 6:48PM Friday October 19, 2018 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Holiday, OH
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location: 39.21, -83.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 192321
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
721 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
Showers will develop this evening into tonight ahead of an
upper disturbance traveling to the ohio valley from the west.

More showers and strong winds will accompany a vigorous cold
front on Saturday. Cool and dry weather will follow the cold
front for Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Showers developing along a swath of short wave energy and
associated weak surface trough will push across the area this
evening into the overnight hours. Driven by an 80 knot 500 mb
wind, bulk of showers will occur along and south of i-71 where
mid level forcing and low level moisture convergence coincide.

Rainfall amounts will range up to a quarter inch in southern
locations. We will see wind gusts over 20 mph overnight as the
pressure gradient tightens well ahead of a strong cold front
due to arrive on Saturday. Patchy drizzle may be experienced
later tonight as showers end. Strong mixing and cloud cover will
help keep lows up in the mid and upper 40s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
A relative lull in precip will occur early Saturday, before a
potent cold front arrives with widespread showers Saturday
afternoon and evening. With only weak instability in a rather
shallow layer, kept thunder our of the forecast.

As temperatures climb back into the 50s, strong winds are
indicated starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through
Saturday evening and into Saturday night. Tapping into 40+ knots
at 850 mb, gusts close to 40 knots are likely for a brief time
late Saturday afternoon. Will continue to mention strong wind
potential in the hwo, while later shifts may view fresh guidance
and issue wind headline if necessary.

Precip will be ending Saturday night as high pressure and
downward motion move in under a confluent flow aloft. As
temperatures fall to near freezing, a few snow flakes may be
observed near the end of the event as the colder temps advect
in on the strong northwest flow behind the front.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A quiet, dry, and seasonable period is in store for the ohio valley
for this time frame.

Behind a cold front, Sunday will start out about 10 deg cooler than
normal - upper 40s to around 50. Monday will moderate nicely to near
normal with a good bit of sunshine and southwest flow advecting in
warmer air. High pressure will then build over the upper midwest and
keep the ohio valley in a cool surface flow that will marginally
hamper the direct heating from generally sunny skies. Expect mid 50s
to some upper 50s for the remainder of the forecast period, warmest
over kentucky. Overnight lows will be warmest Monday night as the
southwest flow keeps up - lower 40s most locations. Outside of this,
they should be slightly below normal in the middle to upper 30s.

The next chance of rain occurs at the tail end of the forecast -
Thursday night Friday as shortwave energy pushes east from a low in
the mid section of the country. European is progressive with the low
and has a much higher chance of showers for day 7 onwards, whereas
the GFS weakens the wave during this time and reinforces the trough
over the plains states. Split the difference on thurs night Friday
and have low chance pops with low confidence in the forecast at this
point in time. Remainder of the forecast seems pretty solid and
seasonable.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Several concerns in the aviation forecast today, beginning with
rain showers moving through the region right now. These showers,
for the most part, are not expected to impact aviation
conditions. However, ceilings will gradually lower through the
overnight hours, with periods of ifr ceilings expected at all
taf sites. These ifr ceilings should persist through early to
mid morning, eventually lifting to MVFR and thenVFR levels by
the 16z-18z time frame.

Wsw winds will continue through the overnight period, gradually
shifting to the west by morning. Sustained winds will increase
into the 10-15 knot range, and occasional gusts to around 20
knots are expected.

Winds will be even more of a concern on Saturday afternoon. Once
the winds switch to the northwest, they will increase into the
15-20 knot range, with gusts as high as 32-36 knots between 18z
and 00z. Another chance of showers will also occur late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, but conditions should remain
vfr.

Outlook... Gusty winds will continue into Saturday evening.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Coniglio
near term... Coniglio
short term... Coniglio
long term... Franks
aviation... Hatzos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH24 mi65 minWSW 810.00 miOvercast54°F41°F62%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6--SW10SW10SW8SW10SW9SW9SW8SW8
1 day agoNW7NW7N12N9N10N6N4N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE53E6N44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7SW7SW8SW9W9--W9SW9SW9SW7SW8SW11SW7SW11W12W11W14
G22
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G29
NW17
G24
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W11NW13NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.