Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 8:15 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM

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FXUS63 KTOP 240521 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Many chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with severe weather potential during several of them

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Elevated shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted east as the upper wave and associated weak cold front moved east and south respectively. Benign conditions are expected for the rest of the day into early Wednesday with modified surface high pressure nosing in.
Northwest flow aloft under easterly surface winds bring small chances for more high based showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night via mid-level isentropic lift.

Coverage of precipitation should increase Thursday into Thursday night as low levels saturate on south to southeast low level flow under a moderate elevated mixed layer as upper ridging exits. Cloud cover may be more scattered early in the day so highs in the 60s may still be reachable and NBM temps are slightly cooler than guidance means. Deep moist convection is likely to form well to the west and southwest late in the day Thursday but the depth of the EML may be enough to keep much severe activity in check this far east.
Precipitation may persist into at least Friday morning as an upper trough moves into western Nebraska then northeast into the upper Mississippi Valley into Friday night. A dryline/Pacific front gets dragged through eastern Kansas through the day Friday though height falls are limited this far south and convergence along the dryline is not impressive. NBM PoPs look a bit aggressive especially for the afternoon. The main impact from this system could end up being synoptic winds with deep southwest flow developing in the dry air and some guidance suggesting Warning-level winds in deep mixing.
CAPE and shear will be supportive of severe storms Thursday night into late Friday if CIN can be overcome.

Moisture doesn't stray far Saturday as the next upper wave approaches. Instability will ramp up again during the day with moisture advection likely leading to at least scattered showers and storms with afternoon and evening CAPE again supporting severe potential. Unidirectional flow could give rise to some training storms with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches for some local heavy rain potential Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances back off into the late weekend though a weaker trailing upper wave suggests small chances even Sunday night and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR at terminals as high clouds are expected to increase overnight, accompanied by a 12-15 kft mid level cloud deck developing aft 14Z. Light north winds gradually veer to the east below 10 kts through the period. As next system arrives, may see a <10 kft stratus deck lift northeastward at the end of forecast period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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