Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:53PM Thursday June 22, 2017 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:48AMMoonset 6:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 221122
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
622 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 248 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017
outflow from storms in south central NE last evening has pushed
southeastward into our area. A 40 kt low level jet out of the south
has intersected this outflow and this along with residual moisture in
that layer has supported additional storm development in north
central ks. The SPC meso analysis and short term models show that
as these storms move eastward the moisture and elevated cape
decreases so this activity should begin to weaken. Mid to high
clouds will likely linger through the morning, but mostly sunny
skies allows highs to reach the 90s again today. This evening a
stronger cold front pushes into the forecast area. Scattered shower
and storms are possible along the front although the chances remain
relatively low. A majority of the models show poor moisture quality
across north central ks when the front arrives. Further south the
low level moisture is better, but a strong cap remains in place.

Later in the evening mid level moisture appears to improve although
cin continues to be an issue. The relatively steep mid level lapse
rates may contribute to enough instability for storms if any to
produce small hail and strong wind gusts, but widespread severe
storms are not likely. Also, the deep layer shear is fairly weak to
support severe activity. Late tonight perhaps the mid level height
falls and forcing along the fronts aloft will allow for more shower
and storm coverage. In fact most of the models show most of the
precipitation is post frontal and mainly after midnight.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 248 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017
the model consensus has the cold front pushing south of the
forecast area Friday morning with dryer air moving south behind
it. So precip chances should be diminishing through the morning.

After that a surface high pressure system is progged to remain
over the central plains through Monday with northwest flow
overhead. This pattern favors cooler temps. The biggest
uncertainty involves mesoscale features and the prospects for
light precip. The ECMWF remains the biggest question mark as it
develops a surface low over southeast co and bring warm air and
moisture into central ks on Saturday as a result of the surface
low. None of the other guidance has anything as strong in the
mslp prog, although they do develop weak warm air advection (waa)
into southwest ks and southeast co. With the majority of solutions
showing a weaker WAA pattern further southwest of the forecast
area, have favored a dry forecast for Saturday night into Sunday
morning and only have some slight chance pops across north central
ks Saturday afternoon in case the WAA gets an isolated shower to
form. Models show little if any instability and forecast soundings
even indicate an inversion in place over the layer where the waa
is progged to occur so thunder appears to be unlikely. By Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night, there are some indications from the
models for some energy moving through the northwest flow aloft
while lapse rates gradually steepen. So have some small pops in
the forecast for this.

Better return flow is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday as the
surface high pressure weakens and moves to the east. This should
allow for low level moisture an instability to return to the
region. Models suggest there could be a low amplitude shortwave
move through the plains as the synoptic pattern deamplifies.

However models develop a fair amount of inhibition with an
elevated mixed layer advecting over the area as well. Regardless
of the CIN progs, the models seem to agree on decent QPF Tuesday
night into Wednesday. So the forecast has some chance pops towards
the end of the forecast.

Temps look to be below normal for Friday through Monday as the
surface high pressure system remains over the central plains.

Temps should trend back to and above normal by the middle of next
week as southerly low level flow brings warm air back north.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 619 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017
a few showers and storms may linger around mhk for the next few
hours otherwiseVFR conditions expected through this evening. Late
tonight a front will move through the TAF sites causing a wind
shift to the north. There is a chance for showers and storms along
and behind the front. Also, models are hinting at the possibility
of MVFR stratus moving in towards the end of the TAF period.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Sanders
long term... Wolters
aviation... Sanders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi77 minSW 610.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1007.3 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi78 minSE 810.00 miFair74°F66°F79%1007.2 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi77 minS 910.00 miFair75°F66°F76%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW11
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1 day agoSW7W7NW7SW8S6SW8S11S9S7S9S6S4CalmS6S7
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2 days agoSW6SW7
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W8W9W10W9W9SW7CalmE8E3CalmCalmCalmS3S5S6S6S6SW4SW8SW3SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.