Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:11PM Sunday August 20, 2017 6:52 AM CDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 201114
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
614 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 345 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
there are two shortwaves of interest this morning. One is over
eastern NE and supported the development of an MCS currently moving
into portions of northeast ks. A low level jet around 30 kt out of
the southwest is intersecting this associated cold pool and allowing
additional storms to form. There is a fair amount of instability
ahead of this outflow so expect that convection could continue until
the low level weakens in a few hours. The short term models have
been struggling with the overall coverage and propagation of this
mcs. So far most of the solutions are too far north with the track,
therefore confidence on how far to the south storms will reach is
not certain. There is a chance that storms could reach i-70 by
sunrise. The more intense convection looks to remain over ne, but
wind gusts up to 50 mph could be possible within the strongest cells
across far northeast ks and 35 mph with the gust front the next few
hours. Another shortwave is over ok and moving northeastward through
out the day. It may be providing enough lift for the isolated storms
currently in southeast ks, and could allow them to persist through
the late morning. Therefore have kept the pops in locations near the
i-35 corridor.

The outflow from this MCS could reside in our area through
the afternoon and be the focus for isolated to scattered storms.

There appears to be limited forcing later today besides the weak
shortwave that tracks over southeast ks, so if storms can form
expect mainly isolated coverage. The area of least inhibition
happens to be the area with the most cape, which is east central and
southeast ks. The MUCAPE this afternoon is forecasted to be upwards
of 4000 j kg, which is enough to support strong convection. There is
very little deep shear so updrafts might not maintain strength for
long, but isolated hail and localized downdrafts could be possible.

Highs today will reach the mid to upper 90s with a few locations
hitting the lower 100s. These temperatures along with dew points in
the mid 60s to mid 70s will cause heat indices to reach the lower to
mid 100s. Tonight southwest flow aloft opens up the potential for
weak shortwaves to track over the region as evident in some of the
models. These waves could provide lift for further development.

Confidence is pops tonight is low given the variability in the model
solutions and the lack of a clear cut scenario.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 345 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
Monday continues to bring a variety of forecasting problems. Models
remain consistent in the upper wave now over northwest mexico
reaching western kansas late tonight and coming on northeast during
the day. Fairly persistent cirrus over eastern arizona and new
mexico early this morning looks to move in during the day, though
could hold off until the mid afternoon. Precipitation chances look
to be generally increasing from the late morning through the
nighttime hours as precipitable water values reach around 2
inches. There is small potential for overnight storms to linger
into the morning, then large-scale forcing ramps up with the
approaching wave and dewpoints again in the upper 60s to mid 70s
contributing to little convective inhibition and 1500-3000 j kg
ml CAPE for the afternoon. Deep shear is not very strong but
enough with the CAPE for minor severe weather potential. The
western wave then merges with a wave and cold front coming
southeast out of the northern plains Monday night for more
widespread thunderstorm potential and heavy rain threat. Outside
of precip and deeper cloud, heat index values look to be peaking
in the mid 90s to near 100 Monday afternoon. Overall the potential
for clear and long- term viewing of the eclipse is low though
could see scenarios for at least brief breaks in the clouds.

Cold front should push south of the area by mid afternoon Tuesday
for decreasing precip chances through the day. Dry conditions then
still anticipated into the late week with surface ridge in place.

Some chance for convection returns Saturday in warm air advection as
the northwest flow aloft backs somewhat.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 609 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
some convective debris should give way to mostly clear skies by
late morning. The winds are currently our of the northeast, but
will gradually veer to the south through the morning. There is a
slight chance for an isolated storm this afternoon through the
overnight.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Sanders
long term... 65
aviation... Sanders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi59 minN 03.00 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist69°F68°F96%1013.7 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi60 minNE 610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain71°F68°F90%1014.4 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi59 minNNE 8 G 1910.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity73°F64°F76%1014 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3SE4E5E5E5SE9E8SE8SE6SE4E5E3SE8S10S7S4S5SW5N9
G17
Calm
1 day agoCalmNW7CalmS6S4S95
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W8W7W9W8W6SW4SW4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmN4NW4CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W6W6W8W5NW8NW9NW11
G17
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W8W5W5W4W3SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.