Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:02PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:48 PM CST (22:48 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 112111
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
311 pm cst Mon dec 11 2017

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 306 pm cst Mon dec 11 2017
strong winds will persist through the afternoon and despite
continued caa, above average temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern remains highly amplified with a blocking
pattern across the western conus. Broad northwesterly flow could
be found over the central u.S. With water vapor imagery depicting
a compact PV anomaly dropping southeastward through iowa and
illinois. At the surface, a 1004 mb cyclone was stacked beneath
the upper wave with a 1030 mb surface high following close on its
heels in montana and saskatchewan. A surface trough passed through
the region earlier in the day with winds veering to the northwest
throughout the morning. A modestly strong 20 ubar km pressure
gradient coupled with strong mid to lower tropospheric flow of
40-70 kts and deep boundary layer mixing momentum transport led to
strong winds of 20 to 25 kts with gusts of 35 to 40 kts. As the
low pulls eastward and diurnal decoupling takes place, winds will
decrease through the evening and remain below 10 kts on Tuesday as
the surface high passes through.

The cloud cover forecast is somewhat uncertain for this evening
and tonight owing to the stratus dropping southward across the
eastern half of nebraska. While the location of the cloud shield
has been well-resolved by some of the high-res guidance, the
stratus has failed to mix-out as progged by most of the solutions.

Thus, have increased cloud cover for the afternoon and evening
but have the clouds exiting by midnight.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 306 pm cst Mon dec 11 2017
the west coast block breaks down around the end of the work week,
but the forecast through much of the next seven days remains dry.

Waa ensues on the backside of the departing ridge on Tuesday
evening as downslope air spreads eastward. H850 temps will rise to
+10 c Wednesday morning ahead of a sharp h500 shortwave. The area
will see a near-repeat of today's weather on Wednesday, complete
with gusty northwesterly winds and highs well above average in the
50s to near 60. A broader upper tropospheric wave will track
southeastward over the northern CONUS on Thursday coupled with a
weak surface trough reflection. Many medium range solutions bring
a deeper moisture plume attendant with this wave and produce light
precip in regions of upper level diffluence. This have increased
pops for Thursday during the day evening, but the overall impacts
with this precip should be minimal.

Longer range guidance begins to diverge significantly once the
upper pattern breaks down for the weekend. Both the GFS ec are
hinting at the system for this weekend, though the morphology of
the system varies greatly amongst the solutions. At this point,
the bulk of any associated precip looks to stay south and east of
the cwa.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1135 am cst Mon dec 11 2017
northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts over 35 kts will
develop and persist for much of the afternoon, gradually
decreasing through the night. LowVFR stratus stratocu will drop
south from nebraska this afternoon, but is progged to remain
above MVFR and dissipate tonight.

Fire weather
Issued at 306 pm cst Mon dec 11 2017
very high to locally extreme fire weather conditions will persist
for the rest of the afternoon along and south of the kansas
river; however, a plume of higher moisture is working southward
from nebraska and pushing dewpoints up into the mid to upper 20s.

Rh values in these areas have risen into the 30 to 40 percent
range, and this trend should continue further south later today.

Winds will remain blustery from the NW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph.

Top watches warnings advisories
Red flag warning until 6 pm cst this evening for ksz020-021-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

Short term... Skow
long term... Skow
aviation... Skow
fire weather... Skow


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi55 minNW 21 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F28°F40%1018.8 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi56 minNW 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast52°F28°F40%1018.3 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi55 minNW 23 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Windy53°F27°F37%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W6W7W9W11W8W7NW23
G32
NW20
G27
NW24
G31
NW18
G28
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G30
1 day agoNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmSW3NW4W5W7W6W7W5W6W6NW11NW13NW9W11
G18
W7
2 days agoNW10W6W9
G18
W4W4W3W4W6W6W6W5W5NW6NW8NW8NW8NW13NW14
G20
NW17
G20
NW15NW15
G21
NW12NW11NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.