Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:14 PM CDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 282322
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
622 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
current WV and vis imagery show and upper low digging into the
southern rockies over new mexico. A short wave trough is rotating
around this low developing a surface low over the tx panhandle. As
this low pulls out of the region it will undergo further
cyclogenesis over the southern plains into the central plains
overnight tonight.

As a result of this system developing and low level clouds in place
today, highs this afternoon could only reach into the mid 50s. With
cloud cover only increasing, expect that temps only dip into the low
to mid 40s over the area. As broad scale lift and the warm front
approach from the south, expect showers and rain to lift into the
area from the southwest. The main threats with this system will
come as coverage and intensity of rainfall likely pick up after
midnight and reach peak intensity into the rush hour time frame on
Wednesday especially for areas along and south of i-70 as isentropic
lift increases. From here, the upper low will slowly pin-wheel
through the area into the mid and southern ms valley regions with
rain wrapping around behind the low itself creating a band of low to
mid level frontogenetical response in the deformation zone.

Temperature profiles are supporting only rain though so not
concerned with mixed precipitation types. Rainfall amounts
generally through Thursday morning could range from 1-2 inches with
locally heavier amounts possible. Flood concerns will likely
increase over some smaller river and creek basins, but due to the
precip event being spread out over a longer period of time, most
concerns should be limited. There will be some small potential for
some elevated storms to also develop over night tonight and again
for a period on Wednesday afternoon as shear and instability
increase. So a few rounds of embedded thunder are possible along
with maybe some small hail. But, overall strong storm potential may
stay limited as better quality overall moisture and the surface low
feature stay just southeast of the forecast area.

With the area remaining largely in the cool sector, highs on
Wednesday look to only reach into the 40 north of i-70 with some
upper 50s and possibly low 60s in very southern portions of the
forecast area.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
the axis of the upper low meanders over northeast kansas by Thursday
morning. Residual lift on the backside of the low develops scattered
showers over much of the CWA through early afternoon, gradually
coming to an end by the evening. Weak ridging aloft builds in
temporarily on Friday between systems with the best chance for
seeing partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures hover
below normal values in the middle 50s before the area warms back to
the 60s Saturday and Sunday, as stronger, easterly winds advect
warmer air westward. Great uncertainty still exists on the weekend
system dependent on cloud thickness, subsequent temps and
precipitation with the next incoming upper trough from the southwest
conus. Model guidance has had a difficult time resolving the timing
and track of this system, with multiple vorticity maxima rotating
through. Overall trend shows the initial wave developing the first
round of rainfall over northeast kansas on Saturday, inserting
highest pops on Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday have the upper
wave being ejected east by another shortwave trough, focusing much
of the moisture further south into oklahoma. Still could see rain
showers south of interstate 70 in east central ks, however qpf
amounts are generally light through Monday. Upper pattern remains
active through mid next week with both the GFS and ECMWF advertising
another upper low sweeping over the northern plains Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 621 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
deteriorating conditions are expected throughout the period.

Currently, MVFR ceilings are seen at all sites with lowered
visibilities expected when rain begins at the terminals. Mhk will
see continuous rain near 05z with top/foe near 09z. Winds will be
gusty in the morning, decreasing after 17z. Ceilings/visibilities
will vary between MVFR/ifr in the morning, with lifr ceilings
expected to begin after 17z for all sites.

Top watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Short term... Drake
long term... Prieto
aviation... Heller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi21 minENE 119.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1015.8 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi22 minENE 128.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1016.5 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi21 minENE 118.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5CalmCalmNE3NE3NE4CalmNE3CalmCalmNE4E6E6NE6E6NE10E7NE10NE10E9NE10E12E13E11
1 day agoNE7NE8NE3NE11N5N6NW6N6N7N8NW7N6NW9N7N10N8N11NE6NW6N8N6N6N6N5
2 days agoNW5NW7NW4N3NW4W4NW4NW3NW3CalmCalmW4W4CalmCalmW4W53E6NE10CalmN7N8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.