Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:37PM Friday October 20, 2017 1:07 PM CDT (18:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 201744
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1244 pm cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 355 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
surface low pressure trough over eastern colorado this morning will
deepen through the day increasing the pressure gradient across
central and eastern kansas. Gradient winds are expected to increase
to advisory levels generally along u.S. 81 highway by afternoon with
gusts to near 42 mph and sustained winds around 30 mph. Therefore
will issue a wind advisory for ottawa, cloud and republic counties.

Water vapor imagery this morning at 08z shows a shortwave over
southeast new mexico as well as an increase in high level moisture
across the plains with increasing cirrus over kansas. Today the wave
over new mexico this morning is forecast to lift northward across
western kansas this morning then into the dakotas by evening. Model
sounding S show increasing moisture centered around 850 mb by this
afternoon with cumulus developing across northeast kansas. High
temperatures today are expected to be a cooler than yesterday due to
the presence of clouds, but will still be above normal with readings
in the upper 70s.

Tonight good moisture advection occurs as the low level jet
increases. Models are in agreement with increasing cloud cover as
stratus deck forms across central and eastern kansas. There may be
enough ascent amid an increasing EML tonight for a few isolated
thunderstorms, but looks to be better focused across nebraska and
iowa. Will leave a small chance in after midnight and expect most
areas to remain dry. Lower boundary layer will remain mixed tonight
and along with the cloud cover will keep temperatures mild with lows
in the mid 60s.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 355 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
forecast remains largely on track for a few elevated showers and
storms on Saturday morning before the main neutrally elongated
progressive upper trough emerges from the rockies into the
afternoon. This trough will cause lee side cyclogenesis to take
place ahead of it over southern ks increasing moisture transport
into the area. Mid 60 degree dewpoints should pool along and ahead
of the cold front. This will set the stage for destabilization to
take place into the early and mid afternoon time frame. Concerns
with convection firing too early are due to a fairly strong EML in
place over northeastern and east central ks. But most model
sounding data has this EML more quickly eroding into the late
afternoon as lapse rates aloft steepen with the advancing trough.

Mid level lapse rates should be around the 7c km range which yields
mlcape values in 1500-2000 j kg range. Can't rule out any hazards
with the a quickly developing line of storms expected as the cap
breaks with strong cold frontal lift and forcing for ascent moving
overhead with effective shear values easily between 40-50 kts
overspreading the area. Also, 0-3 km helicity values could easily
be above the 200 m2 s2 range, which presents some concern for low
level rotation as well. Initial storm modes would likely be
discrete supercellular (with a hail and non-zero tornado threat)
then quickly forming a line of storms as shear vectors run mostly
parallel to the front with strong winds becoming the main hazard.

Pwat values will be high with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere,
so heavy rain will be of concern with all storms, but the
progressive nature should minimize the flash flooding threat
overall.

Main message for Saturday continues to be the awareness of severe
weather safety with many outdoor activities typical of a fall
football Saturday.

The rest of the weekend after Saturday night and into the work week
should remain dry and pleasant temperature wise for fall with more
seasonal temperatures in place. High temps will see some low 70s
but mainly remain in the 60s while lows should bottom in the 40s and
perhaps some 30s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1240 pm cdt Fri oct 20 2017
vfr conditions are expected through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Strong southerly winds will continue through much
of the period with sustained winds near 15-20kts and gusts
24-30kts. A strong LLJ of ~60kts will result in widespread llws
after 03z at all terminals overnight, continuing through 13z.

MVFR stratus is expected to overspread mhk near 05z and the topeka
terminals near 07z. The low level cloud cover may begin to
scatter lift near the end of the period.

Top watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for ksz008-020-034.

Short term... 53
long term... Drake
aviation... Baerg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi75 minS 1510.00 miFair74°F59°F60%1014.5 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi76 minSE 18 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy72°F57°F59%1015.8 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi75 minS 16 G 2410.00 miFair74°F59°F60%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S9S9SE6SE5E5SE6S7S6S5S7S6S11S9S10S10S8SE4S9S12
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1 day agoSW9S11
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S8S9S9S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS45S6S7
2 days agoS12S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.