Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little Creek, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:40 PM EST (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 9:53PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 917 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 917 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure is moving into atlantic canada this evening. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through Wednesday, before moving across to the north of our area on Wednesday night and Thursday. An area of low pressure will develop near the panhandle of florida late Wednesday, then track northeast along the coast of the mid atlantic Thursday into Thursday night before heading northeast into atlantic canada Friday. High pressure will then return later Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Creek, DE
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location: 39.22, -75.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 140224
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure is moving into atlantic canada this evening. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west through Wednesday,
before moving across to the north of our area on Wednesday night
and Thursday. An area of low pressure will develop near the
panhandle of florida late Wednesday, then track northeast along
the coast of the mid atlantic Thursday into Thursday night
before heading northeast into atlantic canada Friday. High
pressure will then return later Friday through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Forecast remains on track as of 9:30 pm. Light precip passing
south of DELMARVA is drying up, and precip chances continue to
diminish over the next couple of hours.

Clouds will gradually start breaking up through the night. A
few flurries could make their way into carbon and monroe but at
this point expect it to generally be dry tonight. Temperatures
will drop to near or below freezing across most of the cwa, but
the winds and clouds will prevent a big plunge in temps, and
also should limit city suburb differences.

Short term Wednesday through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure will be building in from the west on Wednesday
with drying at all levels. Winds will remain a bit gusty as
pressures continue rising but generally expecting gusts no
higher than 20-25 mph. The drying should allow a decent amount
of sunshine, but with strong cold advection, temps will struggle
to rise much, with most of the region having their coldest day
of the season thus far. Many areas will get stuck in the 30s
while warmer areas should reach the lower 40s. The extremes will
be the poconos, where it will likely stay near freezing, and far
southern de nj, where temps may read the middle 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Tuesday
The first winter weather event of the season is gearing up to
impact the mid-atlantic and northeast Thursday through Friday as
a developing nor'easter slides along the coast.

High pressure centered over the eastern great lakes Wednesday
evening will build east overnight, and then parks itself over
new england through the end of the work week. Unusually cold air
will be in place during this time. Meanwhile, 500 mb closed low
over the gulf coast will track east Wednesday night, and
surface low pressure develops and begins to intensify over the
southeast. The surface low will track along the coast Thursday
and Thursday night, will be just south of nyc by Friday morning,
then departs during the day with the 500 mb low following
behind it.

Overrunning precip develops out ahead of the low late Wednesday
night, and some rain and or a wintry mix will move into
southern portions of delmarva. Going through Thursday morning,
with temperatures below freezing for for most of the region,
precip starts out as snow for all but southern de and extreme
southeast nj. Up to an inch of snow will fall across southern nj
and delmarva, and between 1 and 2 inches of snow will fall
along and south of i-78 through midday Thursday before warmer
air surges northward and changes precip to all rain. A prolonged
period of moderate to locally heavy rain at times will then
fall through Friday.

North of i-78, a prolonged period of snow will fall through the
day Thursday. As the warmer air continues to lift to the north,
a shallow layer of below freezing temperatures will remain in
place. 850-750 mb temps will warm to +4c to +5c, and this sets
the stage for a period of freezing rain across the southern
poconos, the lehigh valley, and northern nj Thursday night and
Friday morning. Up to 1 4" of ice is possible for the southern
poconos, and up to 1 10" of ice is possible from along i-78 to
i-80.

Surface low pressure, followed by the 500 mb low, will then
quickly track from nyc to the canadian maritimes on Friday.

Precip tapers off from south to north.

High pressure then builds in from the north and west for the
weekend. Conditions should be dry, and highs will generally
range from the upper 30s in the southern poconos, to the 40s for
most of the region, to the low 50s for southern delmarva.

Some upper levels disturbances may pass through the region for the
start of the new work week. Will carry slight chance low chance pops
for now.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions. There is a small chance for
MVFR ceilings redeveloping, primarily across the lehigh valley
for a brief period around 06z, but the chance is too low to
include in the tafs at this time. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots
gusting around 18 to 22 knots. High confidence overall, low
confidence on the potential for low clouds late tonight.

Wednesday...VFR expected. Northwest winds continued 10-15 knots
gusts 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Winds becoming
light and variable, shifting to northeast. High confidence.

Thursday through Friday... Deteriorating conditions through the
day Thursday. Precipitation will overspread the terminals from
south to north with MVFR or lower conditions expected. Precip
may start as snow as far southeast as ilg phl pne ttn, then
shift to fzra pl before going to rain potentially late, though
odds of plain ra at abe rdg are lower. Precip will continue
through Thursday night, gradually ending from south to north
Friday afternoon. Northeast winds around 10 to 20 knots
(strongest towards kacy) with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible
through Thursday night becoming northwest around 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots possible on Friday. Wind shear likely
Thursday night into Friday. Low confidence.

Friday night through Sunday... Improving conditions Friday night
with a return toVFR expected to occur late. West to northwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots Saturday, lighter Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure is moving up towards atlantic canada. Winds
northwest for rest of this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts
will generally range 25 to 30 knots. As a result, a small craft
advisory remains in effect for our coastal waters and for
delaware bay.

Waves on our ocean waters are expected to build to 5 to 7 feet.

Waves on delaware bay should increase to 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions continue through
Wednesday. Northwest winds will diminish later in the day. Seas
are expected to drop below 5 feet Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Winds diminish as high pressure shifts to the
northeast. Looks like we may drop below small craft advisory for
a time.

Thursday through Friday... Winds and seas will increase
as a coastal storm develops to our south and starts to move up
over our waters. Seas will build on Thursday becoming 6 to 12
feet. East to northeast winds will increase during the day
Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30 knots overnight with higher
gusts. Winds will turn to the northwest on Friday, remaining
around 15 to 25 knots. Gale warnings seem likely for later
Thursday through Friday.

Friday night... Gale force gusts are expected to end before
Friday night but small craft advisory conditions will continue.

The northwest winds will start to diminish overnight and lose
their gustiness by early Saturday morning. Seas are expected to
drop below 5 feet Friday night.

Saturday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Meola 99
near term... Johnson mps 99
short term... 99
long term... Mps
aviation... Iovino johnson meola 99
marine... Iovino meola 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 6 mi47 min W 14 G 17 46°F 53°F1021 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi47 min NNW 17 G 20 1021.6 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 26 mi47 min NW 17 G 23 47°F 54°F1020.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 29 mi47 min WNW 9.9 G 13 45°F 46°F1021.1 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 32 mi47 min NW 17 G 22 47°F 54°F1021.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi47 min W 6 G 9.9 46°F 49°F1021.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi47 min 46°F 50°F1020.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi47 min WNW 13 G 15 46°F 50°F1022.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi47 min 46°F 55°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE9 mi45 minW 710.00 miOvercast46°F35°F67%1022 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ17 mi47 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast45°F36°F71%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE5NE4NE5NE7NE7E12N6N6NW6NW9W11W11W7W9W17
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1 day agoCalmS4CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3E3SE4CalmCalmE6E4E5E5NE3CalmN3E4E4E8
2 days agoSW7W6W6W6W6W6W7W5W5W3W3NW5NW6CalmNW4NW4CalmW6W5W4SW3SW3S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mahon River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mahon River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EST     4.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:27 PM EST     5.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.64.443.32.41.61.111.62.63.855.75.75.34.53.52.41.510.91.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Back Creek entrance, Nantuxent Cove, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Back Creek entrance
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Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:35 PM EST     6.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.85.35.24.43.221.20.80.71.534.55.4665.44.2321.30.80.81.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.