Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little Creek, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:41PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:38 AM EST (05:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 1:13PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 938 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 938 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight, followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Creek, DE
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location: 39.22, -75.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 110244
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
944 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight,
followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also
pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will
usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another
weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by
high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Cloudiness will increase tonight ahead of a stout mid- level
shortwave and accompanying surface trough. Deeper columnar
moisture should be confined from the lehigh valley and southern
poconos in pa eastward into northern nj. There will be
sufficient lift for the development of precip, but it's expected
to be spotty and light. A few snow showers have already
developed in the berks and western chester area, but no
accumulation is expected with these showers, only flurries.

With the mid and upper levels saturated with respect to ice, and
the atmosphere at or below freezing, snow will be the primary
precip type. The fast movement of this system gives the
aforementioned area a 3-5 hour window for some spotty, light
snowfall. Snow ratios are 10-12:1 and only expecting up to
several hundredths of an inch of qpf, so a dusting to a half
inch is possible, generally from sussex county nj southwestward
into berks county pa. Cannot rule out isolated one inch amount
amounts, especially the southern poconos.

Given the expectation of a potentially bigger event (see long term
section below), the snowfall map on our website remains centered on
that event, and does not reflect any accumulation whatsoever for
tonight. Tonight's snowfall expectations are far short of advisory
criteria. Therefore it will be highlighted in the hwo, and if need
be, handled with a special weather statement (sps). We held off on
issuing a sps for now, given some uncertainty in the temporal and
spatial extent of the event.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Any snow showers are expected to wrap up by sunrise. Gradual
clearing will take place from west to east during the morning,
with additional stratocumulus cloud development during the
afternoon, especially northwest of the fall line. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Sunday, but still below
average. In addition, the airmass will be more stable, so
westerly wind gusts will be capped around 15 mph.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
The extended forecast period features a continuing large- scale
trof over the eastern uw, although the trof is forecast to
become much flatter toward the end of the week and into next
weekend. There will be a number of shortwv trofs rotating more
or less rapidly through the main trof, with associated surface
lows and frontal systems. Timing of the shortwaves becomes more
doubtful at longer ranges. Also, their rapid movement means
limited access to moisture and precip production.

One of the more potent systems is forecast to approach the mid-
atlantic Monday night and then move through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves past to the north into
new england, and its associated very strong cold front will cross
the area on Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front Monday night into
Tuesday morning, a broad area of UVV is forecast to develop, likely
leading to some light precip. P-type is an issue, with mostly snow
over the poconos and lehigh valley, but a mixed bag or just rain
farther S e. 2 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate in the poconos.

All precip will change to snow by late Tuesday as cold air blasts in.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be dominated by very
gusty NW winds and strong caa, as the deepening surface low moves
slowly NE through new england and into canada. Wind chills in the
teens and single digits are likely.

A clipper type system is expected to pass near the mid_atlantic
sometime thu-fri, although the timing and track are rather uncertain
at this time. This system could bring some light snow to the area,
as temperatures are forecast to remain quite cold.

Current guidance suggests a moderating temperature trend for next
weekend with temps perhaps returning to near normal.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... There is a small chance for MVFR ceilings in light
snow showers after 06z tonight at kabe, kttn, and krdg. However,
confidence is too low to include in the tafs. Elsewhere,VFR.

Winds west- southwest AOB 10 kts. Confidence: average.

Monday...VFR. Southwest winds 10g15 kts. Confidence: above average.

Outlook...

Monday night... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially north of
phl, with a wintry mix of precipitation possible. Winds
generally light and predominantly southerly. Low confidence.

Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially early in the
day, with wintry mix possible generally north of phl. Winds
becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts
after cold frontal passage. Confidence medium in general
evolution but low on timing.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR with very strong
west to northwest winds likely. Speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts
to 40 kts possible. Medium confidence.

Thursday and Friday... GenerallyVFR but local MVFR possible in
rain or snow showers. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts with
potentially higher gusts. Medium confidence.

Marine
Sca continues through 6am Monday for the atlantic coastal
waters. Wind gusts right around 25 kt are expected to continue
through at least some of the night.

On the delaware bay, winds have already dropped below 25 kt, so
the SCA was allowed to expire at 5 pm.

Both winds and seas are expected to subside on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Generally sub-sca conditions Monday
night, but advisory conditions likely by Tuesday as southwest
winds increase and seas build. After cold frontal passage late
on Tuesday, winds will switch to west or northwest and become
quite strong.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Gale-force west or northwest winds
quite probable.

Wednesday night... Residual gale conditions becoming advisory-
level conditions during this period.

Thursday and Friday... Sub-advisory conditions are forecast at
this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Franck johnson
short term... Franck
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc franck johnson
marine... Amc franck johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 6 mi51 min SSW 14 G 17 35°F 47°F1017.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 11 mi69 min SSW 2.9 31°F 1018 hPa30°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi57 min WSW 22 G 25 39°F 1018.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 26 mi51 min WSW 18 G 20 39°F 43°F1017.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi51 min 33°F 46°F1017.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 29 mi51 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 43°F1017.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 32 mi51 min WSW 6 G 11 35°F 45°F1018.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi57 min S 1 G 1.9 34°F 44°F1017.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi51 min 37°F 1017 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi51 min SW 14 G 17 40°F 43°F1017.7 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi51 min 39°F 46°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE9 mi43 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast34°F33°F97%1017.9 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ17 mi45 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast36°F30°F79%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W9W8W8W6W8W7SW5SW9W9W16W14
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W10SW4SW5S5S6S6S6S6S7
1 day agoS5S5SW3W4N3CalmN6N5N5N13N13N11N9N11NW10NW9NW8NW10NW9W7W6W7W6W10
2 days agoS4W3W4NW5NW6NW6N6CalmN6NW4NW5W3W5CalmS4S10S7SW4S5S4S4S5SW5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Mahon River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mahon River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:14 AM EST     5.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:53 AM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     5.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:27 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.82.13.54.65.154.43.52.41.30.70.50.91.93.34.55.25.24.83.92.71.50.60.1

Tide / Current Tables for Back Creek entrance, Nantuxent Cove, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Back Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:10 AM EST     5.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     5.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:14 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.63.955.65.34.43.32.31.30.40.212.43.74.85.65.64.93.82.71.60.6-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.