Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Norris, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:00PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 6:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 916 Pm Edt Tue Sep 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Wednesday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..Wind variable less than 5 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 916 Pm Edt Tue Sep 19 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Hurricane jose will move northeastward through Wednesday and then stall well offshore of the mid atlantic coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will build southward from eastern canada during the second half of the week and then remain anchored over the region into early next week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Norris, NJ
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location: 39.23, -75.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200525
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
125 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane jose will move northeastward through Wednesday and
then stall well offshore of the mid-atlantic coast through the
weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will build southward from
eastern canada during the second half of the week and then
remain anchored over the region into early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Dangerous surf and rip currents along with coastal flooding are
the main impacts from hurricane jose.

Hurricane jose continues to move northward well offshore this
evening. Its effects are very noticeable at the shore areas and
they diminish as you proceed N w. Showers that were across most
of nj de earlier have decreased to just a few patches with more
spinning well offshore. Pops have been lowered for the overnight
periods and cloud cover mostly unchanged with fewer clouds
across the W areas attm.

Low temperatures were not changed, but some edits to the hourly
temps dew points were made.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the ohio valley and
eastern great lakes then north of hurricane jose. This will weaken
the steering flow and allow jose to slow down and meander southeast
of CAPE cod during Wednesday. While the pressure gradient remains on
the tightened side and there will be a northwest breeze, it is not
expected to be all that strong. There should be enough subsidence to
the west of jose to result in more sunshine although at least some
cloud cover is expected especially across the northern half of the
area.

Some guidance hinting at a few showers possible across the northern
zones especially in the afternoon, however the chance looks to small
given a lack of overall forcing and therefore we continued with a
dry forecast. High temperatures are closer to the warmer GFS mos as
some subsidence should allow a bit more warming especially for
the southern and western areas.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Jose is expected to become a post-tropical storm Wednesday night or
Thursday and meander about 400-500 miles east of the nj coast
through the end of the week and possibly all the way into early next
week. The large-scale pattern through the duration of the long term
looks to be amplified, featuring persistent troughing over the
western conus, downstream ridging over the eastern CONUS and
tropical activity over the western atlantic.

Owing to upper ridging and surface high pressure over our area, a
clear signal for warm and dry conditions exists for the next 7 days.

No mention of rain through the entire period. Northerly flow regime
is typically indicative of cold air advection. In this upcoming
pattern, persistent northerly flow around the backside of jose and
away from the center of the surface high will actually yield warm
air advection as the core of the heat (owing to a maximum of
subsidence) will be located underneath the anticyclone that will be
anchored just to our north and west throughout the period. High
temperatures in the 80s will be common across the area (except
cooler in the 70s at higher elevations in NE pa NW nj and along the
coast), which are 5-10f above normal for late september. Sunday and
Monday should be the warmest days of the period (temps 10-15f above
normal) with the center of the anticyclone expanding toward the
northern mid-atlantic region. There is a potential that a few spots
could reach 90f (particularly the urban centers) on one or both of
these days.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR overall, although some MVFR ceilings can occur for a
time.

Wednesday...VFR with cloud bases at or above 4000 feet.

Northwest winds around 10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. However, patchy radiational
fog cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning at the typical fog-
prone terminals (rdg, abe, miv) but setup for fog becomes less
favorable each successive night as drier air works into the area.

Light N winds.

Marine
Tropical storm warning remains in effect for the ocean zones. We
decided to continue overnight in collab with akq okx. Winds have
been somewhat slower to decrease this evening. Strong gusts are
still psbl with showers. A gale warning remains in effect through
this evening for lower delaware bay, and a small craft advisory
continues for upper delaware bay.

Wednesday, the strongest winds should be over our northern
coastal waters however these will diminish through the day. The
seas will take some time to subside.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday... Seas in our coastal waters will
slowly subside in wake of jose Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas
may briefly drop below SCA levels of 5 ft on Thursday. Thereafter,
seas should start to increase again to 5-7 ft Friday into the
weekend with jose meandering offshore and then with long-period
swells from hurricane maria gradually propagating up the
eastern seaboard this weekend. Winds vary between n-nw and n-ne
and remain below 25 kt thru the outlook period.

Rip currents...

hurricane jose continues to push powerful swells into the coasts
of delaware and new jersey through tonight. As a result, there
is a high risk of dangerous rip currents and heavy surf tonight.

Significant beach erosion, localized dune overwash and minor
damage to piers have been reported today.

It will take some time for these large waves swells to subside
and despite the surface wind more northwesterly on Wednesday.

A high risk for rip currents is expected for Wednesday. The
high surf advisory has been extended through 600 a.M. Wednesday
with 8-10 foot breaking waves reach the coast.

Jose is expected to stall well offshore through the end of the
week and into the weekend. Long-period swells will enhance the
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents during this
time. The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with
waves subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long-
period swells from hurricane maria may arrive this weekend,
which could raise the risk to high again.

Tides coastal flooding
The coastal flood warning has been extended to cover this
morning's high tide for the counties of atlantic, CAPE may and
cumberland in new jersey and for the delaware counties of sussex
and kent. A lingering surge around 2 feet in those areas will
likely produce moderate flooding this morning.

The surge is forecast to be closer to 1.5 feet along the coasts
of ocean county and monmouth county. As a result, a coastal
flood advisory for minor flooding should be sufficient for those
areas, as well as middlesex county and southeastern burlington
county. The same is true for salem county in new jersey and new
castle county in delaware.

We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today's high tide
along the delaware river upstream from the commodore barry
bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of chesapeake bay.

Minor tidal flooding will likely linger into tonight and
Thursday.

Equipment
Ksmq observations are not being sent out. There is a comms
problem and technicians are on site this afternoon to
troubleshoot.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High surf advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
njz014-024>026.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 am this morning to 1 pm edt this
afternoon for njz012>014-020-026-027.

Coastal flood warning until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
njz021>025.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm edt
this afternoon for njz016.

De... High surf advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
dez004.

Coastal flood warning until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm edt
this afternoon for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Tropical storm warning for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz430.

Gale warning until 6 am edt early this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein
tides coastal flooding... Iovino
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 17 mi51 min N 21 G 25 1009.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 19 mi45 min NW 18 G 19 73°F1009.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi45 min N 11 G 20 73°F1008.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 23 mi123 min WNW 4.1 70°F 1011 hPa67°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 31 mi45 min N 21 G 24 72°F1009.5 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 34 mi45 min 72°F1008.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi45 min 74°F1010.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi63 min NW 4.1 69°F 1008 hPa67°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi45 min N 12 G 16 71°F1011.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 45 mi51 min 75°F1010.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi51 min N 6 G 8.9 76°F1011.7 hPa
BTHD1 48 mi153 min 5 ft
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi45 min 73°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ10 mi39 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast73°F66°F81%1009.6 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ17 mi38 minNNW 7 G 1610.00 miOvercast71°F66°F84%1009.5 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE24 mi95 minNW 910.00 miOvercast69°F69°F100%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N10N13
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1 day agoNE7N6NE8NE8NE8N10NE11NE12NE8NE11NE12NE12NE8NE15NE11NE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE5NE4N8N86N75E7SE7SE4E3E4E3E5NE5NE6NE5NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Bivalve, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Bivalve
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:24 PM EDT     6.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.33.71.90.6-00.21.334.86.26.76.45.542.40.90.100.92.54.466.86.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Elizabeth, Manumuskin River, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Port Elizabeth
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.55.14.22.81.40.3-0.10.21.12.43.74.75.254.33.11.70.6-00.10.823.44.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.