Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:08PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:03PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 939 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Sat..E winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ400 939 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A surface low will move into new york and new england this afternoon and evening, with an attendant cold front moving through the northern mid-atlantic by this evening. The low will lift northeastward into the canadian maritimes Wednesday and Thursday, as high pressure builds into the northeast in its wake. Low pressure in the northern gulf of mexico and southeastern u.s. Late this week may develop into a coastal low this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean City, NJ
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location: 39.28, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231354
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
954 am edt Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis
A surface low will move into new york and new england this
afternoon and evening, with an attendant cold front moving
through the northern mid-atlantic by this evening. The low will
lift northeastward into the canadian maritimes Wednesday and
Thursday, as high pressure builds into the northeast in its
wake. Low pressure in the northern gulf of mexico and
southeastern u.S. Late this week may develop into a coastal low
this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A few adjustments to hourly temperatures and winds for the mid-
morning update. Cold front is entering WRN ny and NW pa attm.

Previous discussion...

the next vort MAX to affect the region is positioned in the
upper great lakes and adjacent south-central canada at 03z. It
will dig southeastward into the northern mid-atlantic this
afternoon, with an attendant surface low progressing into the
vicinity of southern new york by the end of the period. A cold
front will extend southwestward from this low and should be
moving through the area late this afternoon.

Meanwhile, mid- and upper-level cloudiness has developed and or
moved into the area, extending both from the aforementioned
vort MAX and also far downstream of hurricane willa in the
eastern pacific. Operational models want to clear central and
southern areas during the day, but I am somewhat skeptical given
the rapid approach of the vort MAX and the fairly strong lift in
advance of it. Although I do think some improvement in sky cover
will occur based on latest infrared satellite imagery, the
rather stubborn nature of the current deck and the increasing
large-scale ascent downstream of the vort MAX will likely keep
skies at least partially cloudy today. The latest met MOS is
warm (generally about 3-6 degrees warmer than our forecast), but
its performance in the last two weeks has been relatively poor.

Decided to use a raw-model blend for temperatures today, which
keeps temperatures somewhat cooler and is reasonably close to
forecast continuity. Should sky cover be sunnier than forecast
for longer than forecast, temperatures may need to be raised
(perhaps considerably) in later updates.

As the lift maximizes this afternoon in advance of the vort max,
the northern CWA will likely be close enough to the maximum in
ascent to see a few showers this afternoon. The NAM nest
suggests a narrow band of showers farther to the south (to near
the mason-dixon line) near or just ahead of the cold front.

Given the strong dynamics in play, certainly cannot rule this
out, but there is little support from other guidance at the
moment, so kept pops minimal south of i-80 for now.

Precipitation amounts should be light spotty.

Other main sensible weather story today is winds, with west-
southwest surface flow in advance of the front mixing down
fairly strong flow near the top of the boundary layer (westerly
25-35 kts). Then, as strong cold advection commences just
upstream of the front, the boundary layer will temporarily
steepen, allowing for a brief period of stronger gusts from the
northwest (25-35+ mph). I raised wind gusts a little bit in the
grids, but there may be a brief period where the gusts are a
little higher than the forecast suggests. Questions regarding
frontal timing preclude me from getting more aggressive.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The vort MAX will slow down tonight as it reaches new england,
with strong midlevel cyclonic flow encompassing the area. The
cold front will sweep off the coast early in the period, with
gusty northwest winds lowering by late evening and overnight.

However, winds will stay elevated enough to prevent temperatures
from plunging. Statistical guidance is in reasonable agreement
keeping temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s across most of
the area, with perhaps chillier readings in the more susceptible
valleys and pine barrens as well as the poconos and far
northwest new jersey.

Once again, the proximity of areas north of interstate 80 to the
trough and cold air aloft combined with favorable northwesterly
fetch suggests spotty showers will occur from time to time in
the poconos and vicinity. Not sure about the prospects for
measurable precipitation, but think there is a high enough
probability to maintain slight-chance pops in portions of
carbon monroe counties overnight. Temperatures will likely be
cold enough to see a few flakes mix in and have made mention of
this in the grids. As alluded to above, no impacts of note are
expected from the precipitation that occurs.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The main long-term forecast focus is on the coastal storm set to
affect the region this weekend.

Before the coastal storm takes shape, the rest of the week
should be mainly dry. Temperatures will be chilly as the
longwave trough will remain entrenched in eastern north america.

A surface high will build from canada southeastward into new
england through the end of the week. Meanwhile, the surface low
reaching southern new england tonight will lift northeastward
and intensify as it enters the canadian maritimes by Wednesday
night. This will promote fairly strong north to northwest flow
on Wednesday, so expect another day of raw breezy conditions.

Though temperatures will be cold Wednesday night, winds may stay
somewhat elevated, preventing much frost freeze potential where
the growing season continues. The pressure gradient should
begin to diminish on Thursday, though it may still remain a
little breezy during the afternoon. By Thursday night, the
surface ridge should approach the area, and this will be the
night where frost freeze potential is fairly high (outside of
the highly-urbanized portions of the philly metro).

The longwave trough axis will pivot northeastward by Friday as
upstream ridging develops in tandem with a digging deepening
trough in the central u.S. This will occur as the remnants of
willa progress into the southeastern u.S. And northern gulf of
mexico through the end of the week. As the associated surface
low progresses off the southeast coast Friday night, the
upstream vort MAX will begin to lift northeastward as an
upstream perturbation rapidly deepens digs southeastward. This
evolution will result in a highly-amplified longwave trough in
the eastern u.S., increasingly acquiring a negative tilt. As a
result, the surface low is projected to trek very close to the
east coast this weekend. The 00z operational models are in
fairly decent agreement for this time range, with typical biases
apparent (gfs weak east with the low; cmc strong west). Timing
issues remain, with the GFS somewhat slower, but increasingly,
the GFS is looking like an outlier with timing track, with the
ecmwf cmc fairly agreeable.

By 12z Saturday, the cmc ECMWF place the low near or just east
of chesapeake bay with a substantial fetch of anomalously high
moisture just downstream (i.E., north and east). Rain should
begin in earnest Friday night and continue through Saturday,
though given trends, substantial portions of the CWA may become
dry-slotted by afternoon evening. Temperatures are warm enough
for liquid southeast of the poconos and far northwest new
jersey. On the other hand, if precipitation moves in fast enough
Friday night into the higher terrain north of i-80, temperatures
may be cold enough for some snow. Will need to watch this
potential closely as confidence in the system's timing improves
with later forecasts. Main change to the forecast was to bump
pops Friday evening night across the CWA and include them all
the way to the far north by late in the night. This required
inclusion of chances of rain or snow in these areas. Warm
advection and system progression should allow any snow to become
all liquid on Saturday.

Model QPF is somewhat variable, but there is reasonable
agreement regarding widespread 1-2 inch rains across the area.

The GFS is suggestive of higher amounts near the track, with
some hints of this in the cmc as well. A lot of this rainfall
may occur in a 6-12 hour window, which may be sufficient for
some localized flooding. Will denote this in the hwo.

Another issue will be winds, with models hinting at gusts
approaching advisory levels in southern eastern portions of the
area (especially near the coast). With soaking rains, this may
result in some impacts, as the increasingly soggy ground may
allow for winds to knock down a few trees power lines.

Model agreement degrades rapidly on Sunday, with major
differences in the the orientation depth progression of the
longwave trough in the eastern u.S. The GFS lingers the low off
the mid-atlantic coast for most of the weekend, whereas the
ecmwf blasts the low north northwest while allowing secondary
development offshore. The cmc is similar to the ECMWF but does
not feature appreciable secondary low development offshore. The
end result is a colder wetter close to the weekend gfs-wise,
warmer drier close to the weekend ecmwf-wise, and warmer and
almost entirely dry close to the weekend cmc-wise. Given the
uncertainty, made few changes to the forecast Sunday and beyond.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts
with occasional gusts to 20 kts or so during the afternoon. A
cold front will move through the area late in the afternoon and
early evening, with winds becoming west-northwest thereafter.

Winds may become briefly stronger gustier after the frontal
passage. General timing looks to be 20z to 00z from west to
east. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds decreasing to around 10 kts.

High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday:VFR with breezy northwest winds
during the day (20-30 kt gusts possible Wednesday; slightly
lower Thursday). Winds around 10 kts Wednesday night. High
confidence.

Thursday night:VFR with light and variable winds. High
confidence.

Friday: mainlyVFR, though increasing cloudiness during the
day. Winds becoming east-northeast and increasing to 10 to 15
kts, potentially stronger near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday: conditions becoming sub-vfr with rain
likely. East to northeast winds 10 to 20 kts with stronger gusts
likely, especially near the coast.

Marine
615 am update: upped the start time of the small craft advisory
to 2 pm this afternoon based on latest hi-res guidance
suggesting a period of gusts nearing advisory levels by late
this afternoon near and especially after frontal passage.

So now the small craft advisory is in effect from 2 pm today to
6 pm Wednesday for all marine zones.

Previous discussion...

fair weather and sub-advisory conditions exist on the waters
currently, but this will change with time as low pressure moves
into southern new england by this evening. Southwest winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kts this afternoon in advance of a cold
front moving through the area by early this evening. Once the
front passes, winds will switch to the northwest and strengthen,
with gusts to 30+ kts possible across the waters overnight.

Cannot rule out the potential for a few gale-force gusts, but
this looks too brief isolated for upgrade to the current small
craft advisory.

Outlook...

Wednesday: small craft advisory in effect for all waters. Fair
weather.

Wednesday night: advisory-level northwest winds will likely
continue. Fair weather.

Thursday: northwest winds may remain near or just above advisory
levels. Fair weather.

Thursday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected. Fair weather.

Friday: sub-advisory winds seas expected, though conditions will
deteriorate as east-northeast winds increase to near advisory
levels by late afternoon. Seas will begin to rise fairly quickly
during the day as well.

Friday night and Saturday: conditions will rapidly deteriorate
to gales as east-northeast winds quickly increase upon the
approach of a coastal low. Storm-force winds are not out of the
question. Rain and visibility restrictions likely.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Wednesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Cms po
short term... Cms
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms
marine... Cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 10 mi30 min 59°F 62°F1018.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi48 min SW 5.1 58°F 1017 hPa44°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 30 mi30 min SW 6 G 7 58°F 60°F1018 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi30 min SW 5.1 G 8 64°F 1018.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi30 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 59°F 62°F1017.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi36 min WSW 6 G 8.9 62°F 61°F1018.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi108 min SW 5.1 60°F 1019 hPa46°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ12 mi24 minW 910.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1017.4 hPa

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Last 24hrSW7SW11SW11SW10SW7S3CalmSW5SW6S3CalmS4CalmS4S6S4S7S4S6SW6SW86SW6W9
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NW4W6W3NW6NW7W4W4NW4CalmW3W4W5CalmW4W3W763
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City, 9th Street Bridge, New Jersey
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Ocean City
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:45 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:57 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.1-00.41.32.33.344.23.93.12.11.10.40.10.20.91.92.93.74.143.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.500.10.81.933.84.34.43.82.91.910.30.10.51.42.53.54.14.33.931.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.