Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:38PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 2:23 PM EST (19:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1212 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 3 seconds.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 1212 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the region today before moving offshore on Wednesday. Strong low pressure will impact the region at the end of this week. High pressure briefly returns by Sunday. A clipper-like system may affect portions of the region early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean City, NJ
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location: 39.28, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181424
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the region today before moving
offshore on Wednesday. Strong low pressure will impact the
region at the end of this week. High pressure briefly returns by
Sunday. A clipper-like system may affect portions of the region
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast remains on track, so no significant changes will be
made to the database. Gusty NW winds diminishing a bit already,
so will update the hourly grids based on the latest surface obs
and satellite trends.

Highs will range from the upper 20s to low 30s across the
southern poconos to the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere under
mainly clear skies.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Quiet weather on tap for this period as the region gets a break
between systems. For tonight, center of high pressure moves se
toward the carolina coast with ridging extending north through
the mid atlantic region. This will result in mainly clear skis
with diminishing winds. Lows will range from the upper teens
across the southern poconos and NW nj to the low to mid 20s
elsewhere. This ridge will continue to dominate our weather for
Wednesday as the high moves offshore with mainly sunny skies and
temperature rebounding into the 40s.

For Wednesday night, the high continues to move offshore as a
deepening upper trough digs toward the gulf coast associated with
the next developing storm. Some high cloudiness will start to move
in late at night well in advance of this system. Also, with the high
moving offshore taking the core of the colder airmass with it
temperatures will not be as cold Wednesday night. Generally expect
lows ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s... Coldest north and
mildest south.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Another wet storm will affect the area Thursday night through
Saturday. Heavy rain and localized flooding look increasingly
likely with this system, with potential for some strong winds on
Saturday.

00z operational models are continuing to converge on a solution
regarding the late-week storm affecting the eastern u.S. Though
notable differences remain, particularly with the farther west
and deeper cmc solution, the general notion of a quickly-
developing surface low near the northern gulf coast Wednesday
night racing northeastward to the vicinity of the
northern central appalachians by Friday is largely agreed upon
by the latest model simulations. This will place our CWA well
within the warm sector of the system, and with the precipitation
onset looking likely to hold off until at least Thursday
afternoon, the system will mostly feature rain for our region.

Unfortunately, given the highly anomalous tropospheric moisture
content advecting into the region in advance of the system,
heavy rain and localized flooding look possible, if not
probable, with this one.

Consider the following: bufkit GFS soundings in our CWA indicate
pws greater than 1.25 inches Thursday night into Friday with
warm-cloud depths exceeding 10 kft. Using the kiad sounding
climatology (available from spc) as a guide, forecast pws would
be near exceeding record territory. Additionally, there is an
increasing signal for marginal elevated CAPE to develop in
advance of the dry slot set to reach the area on Friday. The
00z ECMWF continues to depict high QPF aligned north-south along
the nose of the dry slot. Notably, the GFS is much quicker to
move this precipitation offshore, so the convective
influence and duration are somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, the
consistent look of the ECMWF gives me pause, and I decided to
include slight chances for thunder Friday afternoon both for the
precipitation developing downstream of the dry slot and for the
precipitation near the core of the midlevel vort max. The
contributions from convection almost certainly will produce
locally heavier rainfall. Finally, the cmc NAM show impressive
qpf with the moderate-to-heavy rain Thursday night, with 1-2
inches widespread with localized totals near above 3 inches. The
gfs ECMWF are not much below these magnitudes, and given the
above-mentioned thermodynamic environment, these totals are
certainly plausible. With antecedent wet conditions, such qpf
would almost certainly produce at least a few instances of
flooding.

Some uncertainty remains with the track intensity of the low and
the precipitation evolution in advance of the system, so stay
tuned to the latest forecasts, as detail changes remain
inevitable.

Friday night and Saturday... The system will move northeastward
quickly, as precipitation becomes spottier and confined more to
the northern portions of the cwa. As cold air filters in,
chances for snow showers increase on Saturday in the poconos and
vicinity. Not expecting major impacts at this time, as
precipitation will likely be on the wane and quite light.

However, the surface pressure gradient on the south side of the
system will be quite strong, so another gusty day should be
expected. Widespread gusts 25-40 mph are anticipated.

Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will take quite the ride.

Readings will warm Thursday through Friday (warming... Not
cooling... Thursday night), reaching 60+ in the urban corridor
southeastward on Friday. Then temperatures will drop on Saturday
by as much as 15-20 degrees.

Sunday should be sunnier, less windy, and colder as high
pressure briefly moves in. The 00z ECMWF maintains previous
continuity in moving a clipper-like system into the area on
Monday, with temperatures cold enough for some light snow near
and just downstream of the corresponding vort max. At this time,
questions regarding the track timing intensity of the system
preclude nothing more than slight-chance pops for the northern
half of the cwa, but this will necessitate watching as some
minor travel impacts may occur where this system tracks.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR skc. NW winds around 15 kt with gusts generally up
to 25 kt.

Tonight...VFR with mainly clear skies and winds becoming light
and variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night:VFR. Winds becoming SW 5-10
knots for Wednesday then diminishing to light and variable
Wednesday night.

Thursday: increasing cloudiness with rain moving in from the
southwest during the afternoon.VFR conditions to start will
probably become sub-vfr by late afternoon, especially south west
of phl. Light east to southeast wind, though speeds may exceed
10 kts near the coast by afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday: prolonged sub-vfr expected with
moderate to heavy rain, possibly becoming more showery by Friday
afternoon. Southeast to south winds 10 to 20 kts with higher
gusts near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Friday night: lingering sub-vfr possible with showers likely
diminishing with time (though may be more prevalent north of
phl). Southwest winds 7 to 15 kts. Low confidence.

Saturday:VFR conditions possible, but lingering showers north
of phl and development of a stratocumulus deck may promote
periods of sub-vfr (low confidence). Winds becoming west to
northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts
(possibly exceeding 30 kts; moderate confidence).

Marine
Nw winds diminishing a bit on the waters, so will go ahead and
cancel the gale warnings that were in effect. With winds gusting
25-30 kt, and with seas averaging 4-6 feet on the ocean, will
issue small craft advisories for all waters. For northern nj
waters, SCA will run until 7 pm. For southern nj and de ocean
waters and de bay, SCA will run until 4 pm. Sub-sca conditions
then on tap for tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Thursday night and Friday... With increasing southeasterly
winds, advisory-level winds seas are expected to develop
Thursday night and Friday. Seas may approach 10 feet on the
atlantic waters on Friday. Rain likely Thursday night and Friday
morning with visibility restrictions possible, probably
becoming more showery by Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday... Winds will switch to the west, with
showers diminishing moving northeast away from the region
during the period. Advisory-level winds probable through the
period, with gales possible on Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz430-
431-452>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz450-
451.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Fitzsimmons mps
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms fitzsimmons mps
marine... Cms fitzsimmons mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 10 mi53 min 41°F 45°F1018.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi53 min NW 8 40°F 1018 hPa16°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 30 mi53 min NNW 16 G 24 41°F 43°F1018.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi53 min 1019 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi53 min NNW 18 G 20 40°F 42°F1018.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi53 min NNW 14 G 17 41°F 43°F1019.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi113 min NW 8 43°F 1019 hPa18°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ12 mi29 minNW 1210.00 miFair43°F19°F40%1018 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE19
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N13N14NW15NW11NW11NW12NW10W10W8W7NW7W8W7W12
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2 days agoNE12NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City, 9th Street Bridge, New Jersey
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Ocean City
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Tue -- 02:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:07 AM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 PM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.122.83.33.53.42.82.11.30.80.40.30.81.52.32.93.23.22.821.20.50-0

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:45 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.53.23.63.73.42.721.30.70.40.51.122.73.23.43.32.71.810.400.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.