Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 1:52 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 457 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - .
Rest of this afternoon - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 457 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move through the region on Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times this weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 181916 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly track out to sea on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly track east and will drag a cold front across the region Friday and Friday night. The front becomes stationary south of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. The next frontal system looks to affect the area Tuesday night through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A stalled frontal boundary is positioned over southern Delaware, with upper 60s/low 70s south of the front under partly cloudy skies, and 50s/low 60s north of the front with overcast skies and some patchy drizzle. This will be the general theme through the rest of today, though patchy drizzle should gradually cease from south to north as the afternoon goes on.

For tonight, expect relatively dry and quiet conditions. Some patchy fog is possible but guidance has become less enthusiastic about fog chances. Winds will diminish slightly but a weak onshore flow remains. Expect overcast skies and temperatures falling down into the low to mid 40s.

Friday will start out dry as the weak onshore flow regime persists. Cloudy conditions are expected through the day as low- level moisture continues to funnel in. A cold front will approach, with some afternoon showers possible (20-40% chance)
from the I-95 corridor on west. Not expecting anything impactful overall though as the strongest forcing will be well to the north and there will be no instability. Rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths for those that see any rain Friday afternoon. Temperatures will get into the upper 50s/low 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Cold front slowly works its way across the region Friday night and will be offshore by Saturday morning. There does not look to be much lift or moisture associated with this front, and QPF should be on the order of 1/10 inch or less. Perhaps up to 2/20 inch of QPF is possible for southern Delaware as low pressure passes through the Mid-Atlantic, but well south of the local forecast area.

The front continues to move offshore through the weekend, but the tail end of the front will extend back through the Mid- Atlantic and back through the Gulf Coast. High pressure builds in from the north and west and conditions dry out for most of the weekend. Low pressure develops on that old front will will pass through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, but this system looks to be well south of the region, and any rainfall should be south of Delaware.

Near normal temperatures on tap for Saturday with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Cold air advection will be underway for Saturday night and Sunday with a below normal air mass spreading into the region. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s and low 40s, and then highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure slowly works its way through the East Coast for the start of the new week, moving offshore and south of the region by Tuesday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves north of the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. For now, will generally carry chance PoPs for that timeframe, but there will be a slug of likely PoPs for the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley Tuesday night. Cold front passes through behind the departing low on Wednesday. Conditions dry out for Thursday.

Temperatures return to normal levels for the first half of the week, dropping below normal for the end of next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Today...Conditions have lifted to MVFR this afternoon for everyone. That should continue through the rest of today, and have rather high confidence that will prevail. Winds will be out of the north/northeast around 10 kt with higher gusts near the coast, upwards of 20-25 kt at KACY.

Tonight...Prevailing MVFR and gradually lifting ceilings, possibly going to VFR late. Winds out of the east around 5-10 kt. Guidance has generally backed off on IFR CIGs and fog resulting in visibility restrictions, but can't rule it out completely and put the probability around 20% for reduced VSBYs and IFR CIGs .

Friday...Ceilings bordering on MVFR/VFR with VFR visibilities.
Winds veering to more of a southeasterly direction around 5-10 kt. Low confidence overall in timing of VFR and whether it will be prevailing VFR or MVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA.

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect currently for all the New Jersey ocean zones. For the rest of the ocean zones, the SCA goes into effect at 21Z. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters through early Friday evening as seas will be around 4 to 8 feet. Some gusts in the 25-30 kt are possible off the New Jersey coast through this evening. The SCA may need to be extended beyond 22Z Friday as some of the guidance has 5 foot seas lingering, but confidence was not high enough to extend just yet.

On the Delaware Bay, no marine headlines are anticipated as east/northeast winds will remain around 10-15 kt.

Outlook...

Friday night...The SCA may have to be extended into Friday night for the ocean for elevated seas around 5 feet. VSBY restrictions in showers possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...A prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions and fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452-453.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ454-455.

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Pooles Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:16 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pooles Island, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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