Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Somers Point, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:45AMMoonset 4:29PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 636 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely until early morning, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 636 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A warm front will approach from the southwest this afternoon and then move through the area late tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday, pushing through the region Friday night into Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive late Tuesday or Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Somers Point, NJ
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location: 39.29, -74.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171044
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
644 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today. A warm front will lift
northward towards the area this afternoon and then moves through the
area late tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on
Friday, pushing through the region Friday night into Saturday. High
pressure returns for Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front will
arrive late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A special weather statement for patchy dense fog was issued for
the pine barrens in southern nj. Kacy and kmiv were both
reporting 1 4sm visibility at times. Based on satellite imagery,
the areal extent of the fog is rather limited and looks to
already be shrinking shortly after sunrise. The fog should
quickly dissipate by 8 am.

Additional tweaks were made with the pop weather grids for the
630 am estf update. This included lowering pops even further for
this afternoon based on latest trends in real-time observations
upstream of us and in model guidance.

400 am discussion...

a 1019 mb surface high was centered over upstate ny early this
morning. Meanwhile, a rather diffuse stationary front was
positioned south of the high across the coastal plain of
delmarva and southern nj. The frontal boundary becomes better
defined much farther to our west across the midwest states as it
interacts with a 998 mb surface low that was over southern mn.

Early morning goes-16 fog channel showing an area of fog over the nj
pine barrens. Mid-level clouds over northeast pa and northwest nj as
well as over the mid DELMARVA have prevented radiational fog from
developing thus far across the northern and far southern zones of
the cwa. The fog across southern nj could expand into southeastern
pa through daybreak before fog quickly dissipates by mid morning.

While an isolated pop-up shower cannot be ruled out near the
aforementioned stationary front (mainly delmarva), the morning will
predominately be a dry one.

Showers and storms could develop this afternoon mainly south of
philadelphia across the coastal plain of nj and delmarva, where
higher dewpoints (low 70s) will yield a more favorable convective
environment. Nonetheless, forecast soundings for these southern
zones reveal only modest instability (mlcape values below 1000
j kg). Models also show weak mid-level lapse rates that could
potentially limit the strength of convective updrafts. Accordingly,
there may not be many thunderstorms around this afternoon (capped
coverage to isolated). Owing to a lack of deeper synoptic forcing
available today, capped pops at 20-30 percent with the focus for
convective development primarily being sea- bay-breeze fronts.

Without much change in the airmass, high temperatures today will be
similar to yesterday- upper 70s lower 80s at higher elevations in
ne pa and NW nj and along the coast; mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
An area of low pressure will track east across the upper midwest
tonight. A warm front associated with the system is expected to
approach from the southwest this evening and then lift northeastward
through the forecast area overnight.

Models generally advertise a southerly low-level jet that
strengthens downstream of the midwest low tonight. Both operational
global models and hi-res cams indicate increasing coverage of
showers and storms overnight into early Friday morning as the
interaction between this low-level jet and approaching warm front
would yield forcing for ascent. Pops increase to likely across NE pa
and chance elsewhere by daybreak Friday morning. However, capped
thunderstorms at a slight chance with only modest instability
analyzed on model forecast soundings and given the unfavorable time
of day (diurnal min). Pwats are forecast to increase to above 2
inches overnight, so any storms that do develop could contain
heavy downpours.

Increasing cloud cover tonight should keep temps elevated overnight
and limit the extent of fog development. Forecast lows range from
the mid 60s in the southern poconos to the mid 70s in the urban i-95
corridor and coastal locales.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday looks like it could be a very active day across the forecast
area. The warm front should be north of the area by early Friday
with strong southerly flow behind it. This will bring an influx of
moisture to our area and we will see dewpoints rise back into the
low to mid 70s across the region. Instability will increase across
the area and the chances for thunderstorms will continue through out
the day. CAPE values range widely depending on the model but there
will be more than enough lift in place to sustain updrafts and the
development of thunderstorms. SPC has placed our region in a
marginal risk for severe storms with the main threat being damaging
winds.

What appears right not to be the greater threat for our area is
potentially heavy rainfall. While we have had a few days to dry out
across the majority of our area, there are still several spots that
have 3hr FFG values between 2-3 inches. Pwats will be in the 2-2.5
inch range and heavy rainfall will be possible in any storm that
develops. Wpc has included us in their day 2 excessive rainfall
outlook for Friday as the combination of high pwats, diurnal
heating, and the cold frontal passage has us primed for heavy
rainfall. Will not be issuing a watch at this time as the location
of heavy rainfall is difficult to pinpoint but the potential is
there for localized flash flooding. We have added the mention of
heavy rain into the grids.

The cold front will approach the region from the west on Friday,
crossing the region later Friday into Saturday. Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain will continue as the
front crosses the area. Storms will end from the northwest to
southeast early Saturday morning. The front will slowly move
offshore through the day Saturday and really gets a good shove
offshore as a shortwave upper trough crosses through the region.

With the front not clearing the region early, it will prevent the
low level moisture from clearing out quickly so Saturday will remain
a little muggy even though the Sun should break through and be
overall a pretty nice day. As the upper trough pushes through later
Saturday, we should have some cooler and drier air make it into the
region.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and a period of relatively
nice weather should continue for the start of the week with the high
shifting offshore on Monday. Another cold front will approach the
region from the west on Tuesday, crossing the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Additionally, a surface trough may develop in advance off
this next front and could serve as the focus for some convection to
develop.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Fog development overnight has been limited to the nj pine barrens
(acy and miv terminals). Visibility at acy has been as low as 1 4sm
but is highly variable. Visibility at miv has been steady in the
MVFR range though it could temporarily become lifr before 11z or
12z.

MainlyVFR expected for today and this evening with the better
chance for showers and storms this afternoon shifted to the south of
the TAF sites. Increasing chances for showers and perhaps isolated
embedded thunderstorms overnight tonight. Local temporary
restrictions to ifr possible if heavier showers or storms directly
impact a terminal.

Light and variable winds this morning will become sely and then sly
this afternoon and tonight between 4 and 9 kt.

Outlook...

Friday... Fog possible early morning. Sub-vfr conditions in showers
and thunderstorms.

Saturday... MVFR or lower conditions early in showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve toVFR by Saturday
the afternoon, may take longer at kmiv and kacy as they remain
closer to the boundary.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
Winds and seas below SCA criteria today and tonight. Seas should
hover around 3 feet through the period (lower in delaware bay).

Outlook...

Friday... Mainly sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

Guidance shows that the gradient will tighten up and southerly winds
will gust between 20-25 knots on Friday, mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Additionally, seas will rise but are expected to remain
below 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms possible Friday through
early Saturday, with locally higher seas and winds.

Saturday thru Monday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected
on the area waters through Monday.

Rip currents...

buoy observations indicate that the longer-period (8-9 seconds)
southeasterly swells generated by hurricane gert have
diminished to around 3 ft. With improving conditions today
compared to yesterday, the risk for dangerous rip currents will
be lowered, but still in moderate category.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... Meola
aviation... Klein meola
marine... Klein meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 12 mi49 min 74°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi67 min N 1 68°F 1017 hPa67°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 28 mi49 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 33 mi55 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 1017.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 40 mi49 min NNE 7 G 8 75°F 78°F1016.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 44 mi49 min SSW 1 G 1.9 73°F 77°F1016.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi127 min 67°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ12 mi43 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1017.2 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ24 mi42 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F97%1017.5 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ24 mi43 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F96%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW8N76344SE8SE8S6S6S63NE4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmE4E4E5------SE5E5SE3E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4
2 days agoCalmNE3CalmCalmSE5SE8S6SE6S6SE7S53SE4S4CalmCalmSE4S5S5CalmN4CalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Beesleys Point, New Jersey
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Beesleys Point
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Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.122.93.43.53.12.51.71.10.60.20.312.13.23.94.24.13.52.821.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Swamp Creek, Tuckahoe River, New Jersey
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Cedar Swamp Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:59 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.51.11.92.533.12.92.31.50.90.40.20.41.122.83.43.73.73.22.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.