Saturday, March24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:17PM Saturday March 24, 2018 12:37 AM EDT (04:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:00PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 848 Pm Edt Fri Mar 23 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with isolated gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 848 Pm Edt Fri Mar 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure becomes prominent across southeast canada into the northeast united states this weekend as low pressure heads out to sea off the carolinas Sunday morning. That low probably becomes a large and strong storm in the western atlantic early next week, sending large long period swells over 7 feet westward into mid atlantic coastal waters. Eventually, a warm front will likely lift north of our area Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Lake, NJ
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location: 39.29, -74.99     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240036
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
836 pm edt Fri mar 23 2018

High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday while an area
of low pressure passes to our south Saturday night. High
pressure will then build across the northeast later Sunday, then
across much of the east coast through early next week. A warm
front will likely lift north of the area Wednesday. Then a weak
cold front may move across the area later Wednesday or early
Thursday, before a storm system moves toward the east coast late
Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
630 and 9 pm: very little change expected.

Mid afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southeastward across central pa. There
is a weak surface reflection of this disturbance marked by a
subtle wind shift (from w-nw to nw) along a surface trough that
was moving southward through our region.

Mainly virga spreading SE through our area given the very dry
sub- cloud layer (large t-td depressions of 15-25 degrees) that
is backed up by a lack of obs reporting precip. Kept a mention
of isolated showers and sprinkles (snow showers and flurries
over the higher terrain).

Clouds should diminish from west to east tonight as drier air
works in. The pressure gradient remains tight enough to inhibit
winds at most locations from decoupling tonight, except at the
typical sheltered valleys in eastern pa and northern nj as well
as the nj pine barrens. Consequentially, forecast low
temperatures are approximately 3-6 degrees lower in these
favored radiational cooling spots (mid 20s) vs the urban coastal
locales (near 30).

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Saturday's weather will be similar to today with no significant
changes in the large-scale pattern over the next 24 hours. The
region will be embedded in northwest flow around the backside of
the low pressure to our north west. A rather diffuse surface
trough cold front looks to progress southward through eastern pa
and much of new jersey during the afternoon.

Following the passage of the mid-level shortwave trough this
afternoon, the next one digs southward toward the area about 30
hours later. Clouds will start to filter in from the north late
in the day, but with the deeper lift moisture ahead of this next
system not arriving until Saturday night, expect mostly sunny
skies during the day, except perhaps transitioning to a partly
sunny deck in the late afternoon across northeastern pa and
northern nj.

Given the similarities in thermal profiles and mixing potential
in the boundary layer tomorrow compared to today, a blend of
the bias- corrected mav met guidance was used for to populate
temps for Saturday. Highs ranging from the mid 30s in the
southern poconos to the upper 40s along and south east of the
i-95 urban corridor equate to 5-10 degrees below climo.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Fairly quiet weather for much of the long term period, before
unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.

An area of low pressure will will pass far enough to our south
Saturday night that our area avoids another major snow event.

However, several short wave vorticity impulse are forecast to
move across the area Saturday night through Sunday, while some
enhanced low-mid level moisture and low-mid level lapse rates
increase during the day as well. This could lead to some
isolated snow showers overnight Saturday into Sunday, although
it is a small chance at this time. Any showers during the day
may melt enough to fall as rain. Otherwise, a cool, breezy
period is expected Saturday night through Sunday.

The high pressure that builds across the northeast Sunday
builds down the east coast Monday through Tuesday. This will
keep dry conditions across the area Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal Monday and Tuesday,
but a warming trend begins by Tuesday.

The potential for unsettled weather returns for the middle to
end of next week. A warm front will likely lift north of the
area Wednesday. As this happens, some light precipitation may
fall across portions of the area, especially northeast
pennsylvania and northwest new jersey. If the precipitation fall
early enough, temperatures may be cold enough for a wintry mix
to occur, possibly a brief period of freezing rain. A weak cold
front may move across the area later Wednesday or early
Thursday, keeping a slight chance of showers in the forecast
into Thursday. However, this front may lift back northward into
the area as an area of low pressure moves up the appalachians
and toward the area late Thursday into Friday. This storm system
could bring a round of gusty winds and rainfall to the area
late next week. Right now it looks like temperatures would be
warm enough for all rain.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...VFR sct-bkn near 6000 ft. An isolated shower
or sprinkle possible thru about 02z but confidence coverage too
low to mention in 18z tafs. A slight wind shift is expected
early this evening from about 290-310 degrees to 320-340 degrees
with the passage of a surface trough. A few gusts of 15-20 kt
this evening.

Saturday...VFR. Though CIGS may start out around 3 kft agl in
the late morning early afternoon, it should be few to sct. Cigs
increase to 3.5-5 kft agl after 18z and could become bkn near
abe-ttn in the late afternoon. NW winds around 10 kt.


Saturday night-Sunday... GenerallyVFR. Slight chance of
isolated snow showers which may temporarily lower conditions.

North to northeast winds gusting 15 to 20 knots. Moderate

Sunday night... GenerallyVFR. East winds gusting 15-20 knots.

High confidence.

Monday-Tuesday night... GenerallyVFR. High confidence.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR. Slight chance of showers. Gusty
south winds 15-20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Through tonight... Nw winds 5-15 kt gusting to 20 kt through the
remainder of the afternoon and tonight. However, issuing short
fuse-duration SCA for anz450-51 for gusts to 25 kt through 05z.

Seas 2-4 ft in coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the de bay.

Saturday... Nw 5-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft in coastal waters and 1-2 ft
in the de bay.


Saturday night... Conditions expected to be below advisory

Sunday-Sunday night... Small craft advisory conditions possible.

Monday-Wednesday... Winds expected to be below advisory levels,
but seas likely to remain well above advisory levels on the atlantic
waters. Its early, so we're not sure, but there is a chance that
a developing strong ocean storm in the western atlantic could
send 8 to 10 foot 15 second period swells west into our coastal
waters Tuesday or Wednesday.

Nj new state record for march snowfall established per the nj
state climatologists office-dr david robinson
#1 jefferson township - morris county 44.3" so far. 2018
#2 rockaway township - morris county 43.9" so far 2018
#3 canistear reservoir (sussex county) 43.0 -1958 the previous
record til yesterday. Cooperative observer reports are no longer
taken at canistear reservoir for a direct comparison.

Below based on cooperative observer reports past century.

1913-1914 22.7
1957-1958 19.4
1955-1956 18.8
2017-2018 16.6 ranked 4th snowiest march statewide
all regions below are top 10!
northern nj (sussex,passaic,bergen,warren,morris,essex,hudson)
2017-2018 26.4 new record
1915-1916 25.6
central nj (union,middlesex,hunterdon,mercer,monmouth,somerset)
1955-1956 21.4
1913-1914 19.5
1966-1967 18.6
1957-1958 18.2
2017-2018 17.4
southern nj (burlington,atlc,cumberland,salem,camden,gloucester,ocean
cape may)
1913-1914 25.8
2017-2018 ranked #9 with 10.9"
the four climate sites in our mount holly forecast area with
snowfall data are now in their top 5 snowiest march's on record.

Snowiest march's on record...

philadelphia - currently tied for second.

1) 17.7" in 1941
2) 15.2" in 2018
2) 15.2" in 1914
4) 13.4" in 1958
5) 12.4" in 1993
allentown - currently at fourth.

1) 30.5" in 1958
2) 21.6" in 1993
3) 21.3" in 1960
4) 20.7" in 2018
5) 18.3" in 2017
wilmington - currently at second.

1) 20.3" in 1958
2) 14.2" in 2018
3) 13.9" in 1993
4) 13.4" in 1960
5) 13.3" in 1914
atlantic city - currently at fifth.

1) 17.6" in 1969
2) 15.6" in 2014
3) 13.4" in 1960
4) 12.7" in 1956
5) 9.6" in 2018
1-day snowfall records in march...

atlantic city, 5.7 inches on 3 21 18 is the 7th highest.

Wilmington, 6.7 inches on 3 21 18 is the 6th highest (2-day
total of 8.1 inches is tied for the 7th highest).

Allentown, 13.2 inches on 3 21 18 is the 4th highest behind
16.7 inches on 3 13 93, 16.5 inches on 3 20 58 and 13.8 inches
on 3 3 60.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Drag klein 836
short term... Drag klein
long term... Robertson
aviation... Drag klein robertson
marine... Drag klein robertson 836

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 22 mi50 min NNW 2.9 G 14 41°F 41°F1019.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi56 min NW 15 G 22 41°F 1020.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 27 mi128 min W 2.9 38°F 1020 hPa22°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 31 mi50 min 39°F 40°F1019.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi68 min W 4.1 37°F 1018 hPa23°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 36 mi50 min WNW 14 G 19 40°F 41°F1019.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi50 min 39°F 41°F1020.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi50 min WNW 6 G 8.9 37°F 40°F1020.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 42 mi56 min 40°F 42°F1020 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi50 min 41°F 41°F1019.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi56 min 38°F 41°F1021.3 hPa
BDSP1 48 mi50 min 40°F 46°F1020 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ7 mi44 minWNW 810.00 miFair35°F21°F59%1019.7 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ20 mi43 minNW 810.00 miFair39°F26°F60%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6NW6W6W6NW7W7W8W8NW11NW11
1 day agoNW12NW11
2 days agoN9N7N11

Tide / Current Tables for Mauricetown, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:16 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:22 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for East Point, Maurice River Cove, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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East Point
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Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:08 AM EDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.