Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:18 PM EDT (01:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 733 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 733 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight. The boundary will stall to the south Monday before returning north as a warm front Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday and Wednesday night before high pressure possibly returns late in the week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202255
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
655 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through
our region this evening. The boundary is forecast to stall to
our south on Monday. Weak low pressure is expected to move from
the eastern great lakes to new england on Tuesday and Tuesday
night and it should pull another cold front through our region
on Wednesday. The front is anticipated to stall to our south as
weak high pressure influences our weather on Thursday and
Friday. The boundary is expected to return northward as a warm
front over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of mid afternoon, cold front is beginning to push southward
into the CWA but still north of the i-95 corridor. Ahead of it,
some showers have developed in the unstable airmass and are
moving through portions of southern nj. No lightning yet but ml
capes over the southern part of the CWA are in the 500-1000 j kg
range so lightning remains possible through the afternoon with
convective cells. The aformentioned front will move southward
through the latter part of the afternoon and be across the
delmarva extending eastward across southern nj by this evening.

Additional showers with the chance of storms will remain
possible ahead of it with the activity tending to becoming
confined to areas mainly near and especially south of the i-95
corridor through the latter part of this afternoon as the
airmass starts to dry out behind the front as it passes
southward. I don't expect any severe weather but brief heavy
downpours will be possible and given that diurnal mixing alone
is bringing some wind gusts to around 20-25 mph it's possible
some gusts of 30 to 35 mph could occur with some of these
showers or storms.

Heading through this evening, showers diminish across the south
by mid evening as the front continues to push southward
clearing the coast. Beyond this time expect skies becoming
mainly clear with light winds out of the north as high pressure
noses down and advects in cooler and drier air. Given the
saturated ground, some fog formation definitely possible
overnight but the limiting factors will be the dry air advection
and winds that may be just a bit too strong in the boundary
layer for widespread fog. For this reason, limited fog in the
grids to patchy across a few limited areas based on output from
fog tool. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 50s
north to the low to mid 60s south.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Finally a quiet, dry day on the way for Monday. High pressure
will crest over the area leading to plenty of sunshine, light
winds, and comfortable humidity levels with any fog quickly
burning off by mid morning. There will be some high clouds
around... Especially over eastern pa during the afternoon hours
but any precip with the next wave stays west of the forecast
area through the day. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s except low 70s over the southern poconos.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
We will not be making much change to the forecast for the long-
term period. It continues to appear as though we will receive
some precipitation from Monday night into Tuesday night,
followed by a drying trend for Wednesday through Friday.

Moisture is expected to return over the holiday weekend.

We should remain on the periphery of a mid level long wave
trough over eastern canada during the work week.

Weak low pressure is forecast to pass across the southern and
eastern great lakes on Monday night and Tuesday. Moisture will
be on the increase ahead of the system. We will continue to
indicate a chance of showers and an increasing potential for
thunder at that time.

A short wave trough is expected to drop southeastward toward
our region on Tuesday night. The trough and its associated
surface cold front are forecast to arrive early on Wednesday. We
will continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Tuesday night ahead of the frontal boundary.

Dry air is anticipated to build down from the north for the
period from Wednesday through Friday.

The mid level long wave trough is expected to drift eastward
over the weekend, allowing a ridge to take hold over the western
north atlantic. The resulting flow is forecast to bring an
increase in moisture along with the potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the holiday weekend.

Temperatures for the period from Monday night through Sunday
are expected to be typical for this time of the year with highs
mainly in the 70s and lower 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with winds becoming more northerly or even
northeasterly by daybreak. Speeds generally under 10 kts. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR with winds veering from northeast to east during
the late morning to southeast south by afternoon. Speeds
generally 10 kts or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions varying betweenVFR and MVFR. Brief
periods of ifr may occur in precipitation.

Wednesday through Friday... MainlyVFR. Some late night and
early morning visibility restrictions are possible.

Marine
Winds have been slow to come up but we keep the small craft
advisory in place over the ocean waters until 2z as there will
still likely be some gusts to 25 knots late this afternoon into
this evening. Also, seas should remain around 5 ft. Expect
winds seas to diminish below SCA conditions by the overnight
hours with sub SCA conditions then persisting through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Iovino
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi49 min E 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 69°F1016.5 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi49 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 1016.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi49 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 1016.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi49 min NNE 6 G 7 81°F 69°F1016 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi49 min 72°F 70°F
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi39 min NNE 5.8 G 12 74°F 1016.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi49 min WSW 1 G 1.9 73°F 68°F1016.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi49 min 75°F 1015.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi79 min W 1 G 1 80°F 65°F1016.8 hPa (+0.7)67°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi49 min 73°F 67°F1016 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi49 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 78°F 65°F1016.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 42 mi109 min NNW 4.1 80°F 1016 hPa70°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi109 min Calm 78°F 1016 hPa70°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi34 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1016.9 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD22 mi25 minno data mi82°F66°F58%1015.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi44 minN 45.00 miFog/Mist75°F69°F83%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5NE5NE5E3E3NE6E6E6E10E8E9NE9--E10E14E18
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1 day agoE7E6NE9CalmNE5NE5NE6NE5NE5--NE6NE5--NE3NE5E5E4E3E5E5E5--E3NE4
2 days agoCalmN7W7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5E5E4E4E5--E5SE8E7E7E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Sun -- 12:18 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.51.310.70.50.40.50.71.11.51.92.22.221.71.410.70.50.40.50.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:41 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:27 PM EDT     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.40.7110.80.50-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.4-00.30.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.