Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:51 PM   Moonset 3:37 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 819 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - E winds 10 kt - .becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W late. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ500 819 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will approach today then pass through the region tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west over the weekend while low pressure passes well to the south. The high will move overhead Monday and Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Saturday night and again on Tuesday.

FXUS61 KPHI 191041 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 641 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure near Nova Scotia will continue to shift east today.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will track through southern Canada as a trailing cold front sweeps across our area tonight. The front will eventually stall along the Southeast coast over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Central Plains. High pressure will build east with time through Tuesday, before another cold front approaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will then return on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
In the wake of a backdoor cold front, high pressure will remain centered near Nova Scotia and the Gulf of Maine with ridging extending southward across the Mid-Atlantic for Friday. However, an area of low pressure cutting across the Great Lakes will send a cold front across the Appalachians tonight, as that high pressure and ridging quickly gives way. A steep inversion with low clouds trapped across our region along with chilly northeast flow in the boundary layer will result in another generally gloomy day, though as the ridge shifts east, winds will turn more southeasterly, allowing for a little milder air to push in.
Additionally, while the day will start off chilly with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for most spots, cloud bases will be noticeably higher along with an absence of any drizzle, compared to the damp conditions Thursday morning. The exception will be right around the Pocono Plateau and some of the adjacent ridgetops into NW NJ early this morning. Highs will reach farther into the 50s, with even some low 60s possible from around Philadelphia southward into the Delmarva.

This afternoon as a weak pre-frontal shortwave trough and some isentropic lift combine, scattered light showers will begin to spread eastward across Pennsylvania, with isolated showers possibly reaching the I-95 corridor toward sunset. Scattered showers will then spread eastward across the coastal plain toward midnight, then gradually taper off from west to east, with just some lingering activity along the coast after sunrise on Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will only be around a tenth of an inch. Some patchy fog may develop at times overnight, but dense fog is not expected.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The cold front will be located offshore by Saturday morning leaving behind a few showers in its wake, mainly along the coast. All showers will come to an end by late morning giving way to a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon as high pressure builds over the High Plains. Despite the frontal passage, the front lacks any push of "cold" air, so while drier air follows in its wake, temps on Saturday will be relatively mild and seasonable. Model soundings continue to suggest that our boundary layer will be well-mixed with downsloping WNW surface flow, thus used the 850mb technique to get our high temps on Saturday. Mostly mid to upper 60s with a few spots (especially away from the coast) that may approach 70 degrees. Clear skies are expected for Saturday night with light winds. Will have to monitor the potential for some frost development across N NJ and the Lehigh Valley in which the growing season becomes active.

For Sunday, the forecast remains tranquil and dry. High pressure over the Central CONUS will broaden as it extends its ridge axis east. Will have to keep eyes on a stalled boundary along the Southeast Coast on Sunday where an area of low pressure develops along it before moving into the western Atlantic. However, any shower activity is expected to remain south of the Delmarva.
Otherwise, just an increase in clouds is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with temperatures running a few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure located over the center of the country over the weekend will shift east on Monday before moving south of the area and offshore on Tuesday. At the same time, an area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes on Tuesday lifting into southern Canada Tuesday night. A trailing cold front associated with the low will bring a chance for some rain showers during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe. Have continued to carry an areawide chance of PoPs (30-50%), with a targeted area of likely PoPs (up to 60%)
across the Poconos and north Jersey. After the frontal passage on Wednesday, another area of high pressure builds over the Midwest allowing dry conditions to return for Thursday.

Temperatures during the long term period will be near-normal through Wednesday. Thereafter, temps look to lean below-normal as upper trough settles over the Northeast late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Ceilings generally MVFR with unrestricted VSBY. Quite a bit of variability in ceilings though, ranging from 015-030 and even some low VFR possible at times. Those ceilings may continue to vary in that range much of today, so low confidence in the TAFs there. Light NE winds veering to more of a southeasterly direction around 5-10 kt by this afternoon. Some light showers coming into ABE/RDG in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front, potentially lowering VSBY to MVFR in the evening.

Tonight...Ceilings lowering into the 008-015 range for the most part, with scattered showers spreading in from west to east across the I-95 terminals in the evening, reaching the coast by midnight. Rain will be light, but some MVFR VSBY possible at times in mist. Would not rule out some occasional IFR VSBY overnight with BR or patchy fog, especially ACY. Light SE to S winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering sub-VFR possible early with isolated showers, especially near KMIV/KACY, otherwise VFR expected. W-NW winds.
Moderate confidence.

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR expected. W-NW winds expected through Monday night, becoming E-SE winds on Tuesday. No significant weather expected. High confidence.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect currently for all the ocean zones due to elevated seas from stronger NE winds on Thursday and Thursday night. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters through late tonight as seas around 6-7 ft this morning gradually lower toward 5 ft into tonight. Otherwise, winds are gradually easing this morning, ENE 10-15 kt, tending SE 5-10 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Fair weather. No marine headlines expected. Winds up to 20 kt possible on Saturday night. Seas of 2-4 feet through Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

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Worton Creek entrance
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Fri -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:17 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Worton Creek entrance, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:19 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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