Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
George, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:54PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 9:54 PM EDT (01:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 758 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely this evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 758 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move away from the waters tonight. High pressure will settle over the waters on Thursday. Low pressure will approach the waters Thursday night before passing through Friday. A cold front will pass through Saturday and high pressure will return for early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed on Friday and may be needed Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260140
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
940 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure over the area this evening will move
into new england overnight. Weak high pressure tries to build
into the region late Thursday, before another low pressure moves
northward across the mid atlantic region Friday. This low will
combine with another low as it moves across new england Saturday
before moving into eastern canada. A cold front is expected
Saturday, with additional surface troughs Sunday into Monday.

High pressure across the great lakes and ohio valley Sunday will
build to our south Monday, and remain to our south through
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
930 pm update... Surface low pressure was positioned over the
forecast area. Low-level convergence combined with deeper lift
ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and some daytime heating
had been responsible for the development of showers and storms
across DELMARVA and southern nj late this afternoon and so far
this evening. This convection was not all that robust organized
but they were slow movers and efficient rainfall producers. Two
flood advisories were issued for these areas with localized
rainfall of 2-3". The threat of isolated heavy rain and even
thunder will quickly wane over the next few hours as convection
was in part diurnally driven. The back edge of the precip that
is currently west of i-81 in northeastern pa should exit the
region (mainly affecting NE pa and N nj) by around 2 or 3 am.

The dense fog advisory remains in effect for coastal nj thru
midnight although showers approaching the coast may help mix out
the dense fog late this evening. The opportunity for fog to
become dense again behind these showers will be fleeting as w-nw
winds behind a cold front advect drier air into the region.

6 pm update... Based on current web cams and satellite, we have
extended the dense fog advisory along coastal nj until midnight
after which time conditions should improve as a cold front moves
through. Otherwise, just some mostly minor adjustments to pop,
t td, and sky grids based on current conditions and trends.

Previous discussion... Low pressure is currently located over
delmarva and will continue to move to the north and east through
our area tonight. The associated upper trough will rotate
through the area through the overnight hours. A good amount of
energy associated with the upper trough will allow for the
continuation of showers late tonight with majority of the rain
ending between midnight and 2 am. Even though the system will
move off to the north of the area overnight, low clouds and fog
will be slower to clear as plenty are likely to remain through
the early morning hours, especially across the northern parts of
our area.

Precipitation is spotty this afternoon. Some isolated heavier
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, remain possible across
southern delaware and into southern new jersey as the Sun has
broken out across those areas this afternoon. We should lose the
convective potential as we continue to head towards sunset.

Some light rain was moving northward across northern new jersey
with just some spotty showers or drizzle remaining. Areas to the
north and west of philadelphia continue to see areas of fog
with varying visibilities.

We have taken down the dense fog advisory for the delaware
coast as the web cams show that things have cleared up nicely
there this afternoon. Dense fog advisory remains in place along
the new jersey coast through 7pm. Areas along the new jersey
coast show considerable fog this afternoon on area web cams.

Overnight lows will be mild and in the 40s to around 50 across
the region.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Thursday brings a brief return to high pressure and fair
weather across our area.

The day may start off a little cloudy, especially across
northern areas, but we should see plenty of sunshine through the
day. Winds will be out of the west to northwest around 10 to 15
mph.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s
across the majority of the area with upper 50s across the higher
terrain of the poconos and lower 70s across southern new jersey
and southern delaware.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
After a brief period of possible unsettled weather at the
beginning of the period, dry weather takes hold of the forecast
for the rest of the long term forecast.

On Thursday night, an area of low pressure will be approaching
the area from the southwest, before moving across the area
during the day Friday. There remains some timing and locations
differences with the low between the guidance, however, there is
better agreement than there was yesterday. They all indicate an
increase in moisture while several short wave vorticity
impulses slide across the area as well, especially during the
day Friday, which has the best chance of rainfall.

Once this low lifts to our northeast, it will combine with
another low pressure that will be moving out of the great lakes
region and across eastern canada and northern new england. This
will pull a cold front across the area during the day Saturday.

Low-mid level lapse rates increase ahead of the front while
there will be an increase in low-mid level moisture. This could
bring another chance of showers during the day as the front
moves across the area. Not much in the way of instability is
forecast, so we are not including thunderstorms at this time.

Behind this front, drier conditions return to the forecast.

The low pressure across eastern canada will stay near the
canadian maritimes through Monday, while high pressure across
the great lakes and ohio valley Sunday will build to our south
Monday. A couple of surface troughs will cross the area during
this time period, but are expected to remain dry. For Sunday and
Monday, there will be a pressure gradient in place between the
high to the south and low to the north, so a steady breeze with
gusts likely in the 20s is expected, with Sunday having the
strongest winds.

The high will remain to our south Tuesday into Wednesday,
keeping dry conditions in the forecast. Winds will remain out of
the west, and although a steady breeze is expected and slightly
gusty at times, winds are not forecast to be as gusty as Sunday
or Monday.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... At 0130z, conditions were highly variable (primarily
cigs) from terminal to terminal, ranging fromVFR at phl pne to
lifr at ttn and MVFR elsewhere. While a brief drop in CIGS and
even visibility cannot be ruled out late this evening, it will
only be short lived (and isolated in coverage) as winds shift
out of the w-nw behind a cold front. Conditions improve toVFR
generally from W to E during the 04-07z time frame.

Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions expected with clearing skies.

West to northwest winds pick up around 10-14z. Winds will be
around 10 to 12 knots with a few higher gusts through the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night... GenerallyVFR, although MVFR conditions may
begin late in the night across the southern areas as rain
approaches.

Friday... MVFR, possible ifr, with a chance of scattered
showers.

Friday night... MVFR conditions possible early with scattered
showers, becomingVFR during the evening and overnight.

Saturday... MostlyVFR. A chance of showers which may
temporarily lower conditions.

Saturday night-Monday...VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds
20-25 knots Sunday and Monday.

Marine
930 pm update... Dense fog advisory remains in effect until
midnight based on beach cams and satellite imagery.

Previous discussion... Dense fog on the waters is slowly eroding
from south to north. However, beach cams continue to show fog
up and down the coastline, although there are some breaks
occurring at this time. Therefore, we will leave the dense fog
advisory in place. The dense fog advisory runs through 7pm.

Otherwise, the delaware bay looks fairly quiet through
Thursday. Winds may near 25 knots Thursday morning but are
currently forecast to remain below SCA criteria.

The SCA on the ocean will remain in place, mainly for seas,
through Thursday. Winds may gust to around 25 knots early on
Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Small craft advisory continues due to elevated
seas.

Friday-Friday night... Elevated seas may linger into Friday and
Friday night.

Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels.

Sunday-Monday... Winds may approach small craft advisory levels
on Sunday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until midnight edt tonight for njz014-
024>026.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Fitzsimmons klein meola
short term... Meola
long term... Robertson
aviation... Fitzsimmons klein robertson meola
marine... Fitzsimmons klein robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi55 min N 8 G 9.9 58°F 54°F1005.9 hPa (+1.3)
FSNM2 17 mi55 min NW 11 G 13 62°F 1005.7 hPa (+1.5)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi55 min NW 9.9 G 11 61°F 1005.8 hPa (+1.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi55 min N 4.1 G 6 62°F 57°F1005.6 hPa (+1.5)
CPVM2 23 mi55 min 62°F 58°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi55 min 62°F 1005.4 hPa (+1.2)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi55 min W 6 G 6 61°F 55°F1005.4 hPa (+0.9)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi55 min NW 8 G 8.9 61°F 54°F1006.9 hPa (+1.2)58°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi55 min 62°F 54°F1004.4 hPa (+0.7)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 39 mi55 min NW 6 G 7 61°F 52°F1004.8 hPa (+0.7)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi145 min NW 2.9 60°F 1005 hPa56°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi145 min E 1.9 56°F 1004 hPa56°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD11 mi70 minNW 710.00 miOvercast64°F60°F88%1006.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.9 hrsNW 42.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F60°F96%1005.7 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD21 mi61 minno data mi63°F57°F84%1005.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi80 minNW 64.00 miFog/Mist61°F59°F94%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE7NE7NE8
G14
NE4NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmSE4NW5NW8NW6NW10NW7NW8
1 day ago--SE3E4CalmE3E5E6CalmE5E4E4E3E7E10E9E11
G16
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5SE6SE6S5SE7SE7SE9SE9S8--S9SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Pooles Island, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Pooles Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:20 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:52 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:54 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.81.11.41.51.51.31.10.80.50.30.30.40.611.31.51.61.51.31.10.80.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:41 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.70.70.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.80.70.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.