Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bowleys Quarters, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:21 AM EDT (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 432 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A semi-stationary frontal boundary just north of the mason-dixon line will move south this afternoon and remain over the waters through early Sunday...before lifting north as a warm front late Sunday afternoon. A cold front will cross the mid-atlantic Monday night with canadian high pressure then building over the area through Wednesday. A small craft advisory is likely Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bowleys Quarters, MD
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location: 39.33, -76.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 290747
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
347 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary just north of the mason-dixon line will move
south this afternoon and remain over the region through early
Sunday... Before lifting north as a warm front late Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will then cross the mid-atlantic late Monday. Weak low
pressure moves into the region Tuesday before a surface trough
develops Wednesday as strong low pressure develops over the
tennessee valley and heads towards the mid-atlantic Thursday and
Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
Latest surface analysis indicates that the warm front has return to
the northern reaches of the forecast area. South of the front not
only is it warmer, but its also more humid... With requisite amounts
of increased instability as well. Isentropic lift and copious shear
has been acting on this airmass discontinuity, and producing a swath
of showers and thunderstorms. East of the appalachians there is a
capping inversion in place, and thus the storms have mostly been
losing their root in the boundary layer. However, precipitation
has been overspreading the northern reaches of the forecast
area rather quickly, and have bumped pops up considerably
petersburg-metro dc northward through sunrise. This activity
will be raining itself out through dawn, but will leave behind
implications for the daytime hours.

There is ample ridging in place today, with plenty of warmth
supporting temps to rise to/above 90 degrees. In light of this heat,
mucape forecast to increase to 2000-3000 j/kg... Or higher... With
minimal cin. But, the northern portion of the forecast area will
first need to recover from the early morning rainfall. Have shaved a
degree or two off high temps across northern maryland and eastern
west virginia. In turn, this would provide a differential heating
boundary. Believe that would be enough in this volatile air mass for
late day showers/thunderstorms to develop. While heavy rain would be
primary threat (due to atypical precipitable water for late april),
would not rule out localized strong wind gusts or large hail in
taller storms (and thunderstorms today likely to be quite tall). Spc
concurs, placing the northern forecast area in marginal risk.

Thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage upon loss of
diurnal heating. However, there will be enough fuel lingering to
justify chance pops overnight.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/
Similar considerations apply to Sunday's forecast, ie: the lingering
surface boundary and a warm/unstable air mass to its south. An
east/onshore flow across northeast maryland may provide a
stabilizing influence, and focus storms in the potomac highlands,
where terrain/upslope will provide another lifting mechanism. This
time, instability will wane with sunset. And, since flow will be
onshore, have no reason to dispute slightly cooler high temperatures
per superblend... Which still are about 10 degrees above normal.

On Monday, a deep low pressure system will work from the plains to
the great lakes, which will drag a cold front toward the forecast
area. Gfs/ecmwf timing is a little closer then previous, though
differences remain. Focus would be on the afternoon-evening hours.

However, instability does not look nearly as strong as during the
weekend, but there still will be ample shear and favorable
timing for a few strong thunderstorms.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/
Per the 29/00z gefs, the h5 low over the upper great lakes early
Tuesday lifts northeastward towards quebec, followed by slight
height rises through Thursday. On Thursday, a digging h5 trough
moves into the tennessee valley, and slowly makes it way towards the
northeast u.S.

The surface reflection of the upper levels reveal strong northwest
flow on Tuesday, followed by a saddle point in the surface pressure
field and stalled frontal boundary as low pressure develops in the
tennessee valley on Thursday and slowly makes its way to the
chesapeake bay region.

It should be noted that the deterministic 20/00z ECMWF has a closed
upper low for the thu/fri system as opposed to an open, albeit slow-
moving, wave per the 29/00z GEFS solution. This is to be expected
with the GEFS as the various solutions are damping out details of
the position of the upper low, and the 29/00z GFS deterministic has
a substantial, deep, cut h5 low. Both the 29/00z GFS and ECMWF seem
to be in harmony with similar solutions.

At this time, the sensible outcome of this strong low pressure
system looks to be a considerable, slow-moving nor'easter rainstorm
for the region in the Thursday-to-Friday timeframe.

Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/
Showers and thunderstorms will be working across northern terminals
this morning. At this point, have been reserved in forecasting
restrictions, but did offer 06z tafs that were more pessimistic.

Will be monitoring activity and adjust as needed. Ifr likely within
thunderstorms, but direct strikes will be limited. Suspect a more
widespread MVFR possible.

Early morning activity likely to linger past daybreak before
breaking apart. Ample daytime heat will lead to scattered late day
thunderstorms, with local flight restrictions and gusty winds likely.

Areal coverage once again the mitigating factor.

Threat of flight restrictions will linger overnight/into Sunday
morning, with areas of fog possibly developing. Daytime Sunday will
carry a renewed thunderstorm risk, although areal coverage and
strength of storms potentially could be less.

A cold front will cross the terminals Monday afternoon/evening, with
yet another opportunity for thunderstorms/local AOB ifr.

PrimarilyVFR should prevail thuesday-Wednesday.

Marine
There will be several opportunities for thunderstorms this weekend,
each of which could carry locally strong wind gusts. Early this
morning will be the first round, although most of the winds likely
won't mix to the water. The same can't be said for late day Saturday
(today) into tonight, and again on Sunday. Finally, a cold front
will arrive Monday night.

In advance of the front, the gradient wind will increase from the
south. That will be the first chance at small craft advisories.

Marine warnings possible prior to that.

Northwest flow on Tuesday will likely bring small craft conditions
to the waters. As low pressure moves through the region in the
Thursday-to-Friday timeframe, additional small craft advisories may
be required.

Tides/coastal flooding
Water levels have retreated to near normal, with no complications
anticipated this weekend. That should be the case for much of the
week. By the end of the week though, a coastal low is likely to
cause elevated water levels once again.

Climate
The time periods to watch will be high temperatures today, and
warm overnight lows this weekend. Here are the record highs/warm
lows through the weekend:
washington dc...

Saturday 29 april... 91 (in 1974)/68 (in 1956)
Sunday 30 april... 92 (in 1942)/67 (in 1983)
bwi airport...

Saturday 29 april... 91 (in 1974)/67 (in 1956)
Sunday 30 april... 92 (in 1910)/63 (in 1983)
dulles airport..

Saturday 29 april... 87 (in 1996)/62 (in 1996)
Sunday 30 april... 86 (in 2007)/64 (in 1983)
also of note... The warmest night time low at dca in april is 69
degrees. That could be challenged tonight.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lee
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Lee
aviation... Hts
marine... Hts/lee
tides/coastal flooding... Hts
climate... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 9 mi63 min SSW 11 G 17 71°F 63°F1015 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi63 min SSW 8.9 G 12 73°F 1014.2 hPa
FSNM2 13 mi63 min SSW 8 G 13 73°F 1014.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 13 mi51 min S 9.7 G 12 66°F 1015.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi63 min W 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 65°F1014.2 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 20 mi51 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 1014.6 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi63 min 66°F 66°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 25 mi63 min 70°F 1014.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi51 min SSW 14 G 18 68°F 1014.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi81 min S 16 G 17 67°F 60°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 31 mi63 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 64°F1013.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi63 min 71°F 61°F1013.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi63 min NNW 7 G 8.9 70°F 61°F1013.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 43 mi171 min W 4.1 68°F 1017 hPa65°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 48 mi63 min S 8 G 11 71°F 67°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD5 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F69°F94%1015.6 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi83 minSW 810.00 miFair69°F66°F93%1013.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi87 minno data mi73°F66°F79%1014.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD20 mi27 minSW 96.00 miFog/Mist71°F68°F90%1015.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi41 minS 117.00 miFog/Mist72°F68°F88%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW7W5W6E10SE11SE11SE10SE9SE6SE5SE3E3CalmSE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmE5E4SE6SE5SE5SE5SE6SE8SE8SE11
G16
SE11SE9SE11SE7SE6E4S3S4SE6S3CalmCalmNW3
2 days agoNW5NW5--NW7NW5NW5CalmCalmSE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmS3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:12 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.80.50.30.20.20.40.81.31.82.12.121.71.30.90.60.30.20.30.50.91.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.81.11.21.10.70.2-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.10.30.50.60.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.