Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:05PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:40 AM EST (05:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 8:38PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1210 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1210 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A broad surface high will build into much of the eastern u.s. Late this week before moving offshore this weekend. A strong surface low will develop in the central plains this weekend, lifting northeast into southeast canada early next week. This will bring a strong cold front through the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will build back into the region during the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190516
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1216 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
A broad surface high will build into much of the eastern u.S.

Late this week before moving offshore this weekend. A strong
surface low will develop in the central plains this weekend,
lifting northeast into southeast canada early next week. This
will bring a strong cold front through the area Monday night and
Tuesday. High pressure will build back into the region during
the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
With clear skies and light winds, many areas away from the
urban corridor along i-95 are radiating well, and temperatures
are falling off. Will make adjustments to hourly grids based on
latest surface obs, and will end up lowering overnight lows by
several degrees, especially in northern nj and the pine barrens
of nj.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
A modest warming trend is expected Friday as the 1000 to 500 mb
thickness increase. Pressure gradient will be rather weak
tomorrow with the high to our south. Consequently winds should
be light (10 mph or less) through the day.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A warm and dry weekend followed by an inclement start to the new
week...

model solutions remain rather stable through Tuesday of next
week, with the midlevels featuring generally zonal flow through
the weekend followed by some ridging downstream of a negatively
tilted trough moving through the midwest great lakes late this
weekend into early next week. The trough passes the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with reinforcing perturbations in
transient northwest flow Wednesday. Model discrepancies become
large by this time, as phase differences among the ecmwf, gfs,
and cmc become pronounced. However, in terms of sensible
weather, think the Tuesday night through Wednesday night period
should be dry before uncertainty becomes high enough at the end
of the long term for at least mentionable (slight chance) pops.

Not much to discuss sensible-weather wise this weekend, as a
strong surface high in the southeast moves offshore. Statistical
guidance remains consistent in bringing temperatures near or
slightly above 50 for the philadelphia metropolitan area this
weekend but remain muted in warming it up much more than this.

Given the stubborn zonal flow (i.E., lack of increased
amplification downstream of the developing trough in the central
u.S.) depicted, the plateau of temperatures around 10 to 15
degrees above average Saturday through Monday makes sense,
though I do wonder if models are underdoing the amplification
somewhat. As such, I kept things close to MOS guidance, but did
bump maximum temperatures a degree or two during this period.

Isentropic ascent downstream of the negatively-tilted trough on
Monday may lead to warm-advection precipitation in the northern
mid-atlantic and northeast, which required keeping increasing
pops Sunday night and Monday, especially north of the mason-
dixon line. Such regimes tend to be favorable for freezing rain
or sleet (i.E., a low-level warm nose), and did retain mention
of this in the far northern CWA Sunday night and Monday morning.

As the strong cyclone in the plains moves northeast into the
great lakes and southeast canada Monday night and Tuesday, a
strong cold front will sweep through the mid-atlantic during
this period. Models continue to show decent QPF in vicinity of
the front, with some disagreement on timing (gfs fast; ecmwf
slow; cmc in between). Timing continues to favor Monday night,
though it has slowed in the past couple of days to include
Tuesday morning (and perhaps most of the day in the
northern eastern cwa). Given the strong consistent agreement
among models Monday night, introduced categorical pops during
this period and increased pops a little bit through the day
Tuesday. Precipitation may be showery, especially close to the
front, but large-scale lift will be pronounced, suggesting a
more widespread rain may occur. Should showers convection
develop, QPF may be locally enhanced, and this will need to be
watched as the event approaches. A rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out either, given cold midlevels with the approaching
trough, though this threat looks too low for mention at this
time.

There are some indications of upstream perturbations moving
through the transient northwest flow Tuesday night and
Wednesday, which may lead to flurries or snow showers in the
poconos, but the signal is not agreed upon amongst the
operational models. Kept Tuesday night through Wednesday night
dry as a result, but temperatures will fall back to seasonal
averages as colder high pressure builds into the area.

The 12z ECMWF keeps the high entrenched in the mid-atlantic
through Thursday, but the 12z cmc is quick to bring a developing
low through the area late in the long term (with some indication
of this in the GFS as well, though pushed off to our southeast).

Will add slight chance pops for Thursday at this time, though
this may be on the fast aggressive side.

Aviation 05z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Skc few250. Variable winds less than 5 kt.

Friday...VFR. Skc few250. W-sw winds less than 10 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday... PrimarilyVFR, though
increasing clouds should occur Sunday. Winds generally west
around or below 10 kts. High confidence.

Sunday night and Monday... Sub-vfr conditions possible with
increasing chances of rain or showers during the period.

Generally light and variable winds becoming south or southeast
around or below 10 kts. Low confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday... Periods of sub-vfr likely with a good
chance of rain showers, especially through Tuesday morning.

Southeast winds becoming west or southwest after frontal passage
on Tuesday (probably by the afternoon). Winds may become gusty
after frontal passage and in vicinity of showers. Medium
confidence.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions tonight through Friday. Gusts to 20 kt
possible for nj coastal waters in the afternoon.

On the delaware bay, winds and seas should stay below sca
criteria through Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night: marginal advisory
conditions may occur off the northern central nj coast;
otherwise, sub-advisory conditions and fair weather expected.

Sunday through Monday: sub-advisory conditions, with an
increasing chance of rain or showers by Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday: advisory-level winds possible (south
or southeast before frontal passage; west after frontal passage),
with a good chance of rain or showers.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson mps
marine... Cms fitzsimmons johnson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi41 min 29°F 33°F1020 hPa (+0.7)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi71 min WNW 4.1 26°F 1019 hPa14°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi41 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 27°F 32°F1019.8 hPa (+0.9)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi41 min W 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 1020.6 hPa (+0.8)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi41 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 31°F1019.6 hPa (+0.5)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 43 mi131 min Calm 21°F 1020 hPa18°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi41 min 29°F 32°F1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
BDSP1 46 mi41 min 28°F 35°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi41 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 30°F 32°F1020 hPa (+0.9)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi41 min 29°F 32°F1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi41 min 26°F 33°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi41 min WNW 1 G 1.9 29°F 29°F1019.7 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair24°F14°F65%1019.6 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair18°F14°F84%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW14NW13NW15
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NW12NW8NW17NW13NW9NW12NW14
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NW9W3W3W3CalmNW4NW4Calm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmNW7N6NW8NW12
G20
NW12NW12NW12NW14NW13NW13NW13NW14NW10NW12NW12NW10NW11NW13NW13NW15
G21
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2 days agoNW3W5CalmN3N3NE3E3NW34E7E9E8E8E6E9E6NE5NE3CalmNE5NE6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:44 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:53 AM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:15 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.621.20.50.1-00.41.12.133.63.83.52.9210.3-0.1-0.10.41.222.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Beesleys Point, New Jersey
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Beesleys Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:59 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:32 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:58 PM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.30.60.2-00.31.32.43.23.73.73.32.61.70.90.2-0.2-0.20.51.52.42.93.13

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.