Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Galena, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:16PM Thursday March 21, 2019 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 439 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming nw with gusts to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 35 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt...becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will strengthen as it moves off to the northeast tonight through Friday night. High pressure will return for the weekend before low pressure and its associated cold front impact the waters early next week. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. A small craft advisory will likely be needed later Saturday into Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Galena, MD
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location: 39.37, -75.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 212231
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
631 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves northeast through the
mid- atlantic region tonight and into new england on Friday.

Behind the low, a cold front will cross our region on Friday.

Over the weekend, the low will move farther away into the
canadian maritimes, while high pressure will build in from the
great lakes on Saturday and then shift to our south on Sunday. A
cold front is forecast to cross the area on Monday, followed by
high pressure for much of the remainder of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
No major changes with the 630 pm update. Some of the high
resolution models show the lull continuing for the next few
hours. However, based on the latest radar trends, with a broad
area of heavier rain off shore (which is on track to move on
shore later), and a pivot point starting to develop over the
region, stayed close to the previous forecast.

Low pressure continues to strengthen as it is currently near the
central chesapeake bay and moving northward. The highest rain
amounts so far have been over far northern DELMARVA and
portions of far SE pa (mostly chester, delaware, and upper
montgomery counties) where up to two 2 inches of rain has
fallen.

As we head through the evening, the rain will continue to fall
moderate to heavy at times with the heaviest continuing to be
over eastern pa (we are especially concerned with the western
suburbs, berks county, and the lehigh valley) as well as
portions of northern delmarva. Eastern nj may also get a round
of heavy rain later this evening as the area of heavy rain
current off shore moves on shore later. Even though rain
amounts in this area have been less than an inch so far, if the
heavy rain is coincident with the high tide, it could exacerbate
the tidal flooding. Additional information on the flooding and
coastal flooding is in the hydrology and tides coastal flooding
sections below.

By the overnight period, the heaviest of the rain will begin to wind
down as the center of low pressure cuts right across the area then
onward towards long island. Still expecting though that some lighter
rain and wrap around showers continue overnight especially for
northern and eastern zones. Also, as cooler air wraps in on the
backside of the low we actually expect rain to change over to snow
over the southern poconos where a couple inches could accumulate.

By morning, temperatures will generally be in the low 40s
except 30s over the southern poconos and NW nj.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
The low will continue to deepen through Friday as it moves ne
through new england. Main concern for Friday and beyond will be
strong winds on the backside of the system due to the strong
pressure gradient, deep mixing, and cold advection pattern.

Friday morning may end up mainly dry before a strong shortwave
associated with the main upper level low drops S E into the area.

This will result in scattered showers redeveloping that could
continue to be mixed with some snow across higher elevations in the
southern poconos. Otherwise main focus will be on the winds. Winds
will ramp up through the day and expect by mid to late afternoon
w NW winds will be 15 to 25 with gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph.

Winds will likely be even stronger for a time Friday night. Highs
Friday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s over the southern
poconos and NW nj to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Friday night... Secondary cold front crosses the area early in the
evening potentially resulting in a surge of stronger wind gusts.

Profiles indicate 40 to 50 knot winds in the boundary layer but
limiting factor for full mixing will be loss of heating with the
diurnal cycle. Nevertheless, still think there will be a good
potential for wind gusts at least 35 to 45 mph to be realized across
much of the area so wind advisory may end up be needed. Otherwise,
except for some scattered snow showers continuing in the southern
poconos conditions should become mainly dry. Lows by Saturday
morning will range from the 20s across the southern poconos and nw
nj to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.

For Saturday, the low pulls away into the canadian maritimes with
strong NW winds continuing in its wake as high pressure moves into
the ohio valley keeping a tight gradient over the area. Otherwise it
will be dry but seasonably cool under mainly sunny skies.

High pressure moves in for Saturday night and Sunday resulting in
winds finally diminishing with temperatures returning to
seasonable by Sunday afternoon under continuing mainly clear
skies.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
This extended forecast period will start out with a fairly strong
cold front passage on Monday, followed by canadian high pressure for
Tuesday through Thursday. On Monday a shortwv trof is forecast to
move east into the ohio valley with moisture spreading ahead of it
across the mid-atlantic region. Both the latest GFS and ecmwf
are showing precip spreading across the area on Monday and
continuing into Monday night in association with this feature
and with the frontal passage.

Temperatures ahead of the front on Monday should be warm enough for
rain everywhere, but fairly strong cold advection behind the front
may result in precip changing to snow from north to south Monday
night. No significant snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a bit below normal,
but may moderate to near normal again by Thursday.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight... Low pressure will intensify as it moves
northeast through coastal de and nj this evening and tonight.

This will result in relatively poor flying conditions through
most of tonight. CIGS will generally range between low MVFR and
ifr. Vsbys will beVFR at times but will be lower in areas of
heavier rainfall. Precip should end from south to north during
this evening, but CIGS will remain mostly ifr overnight. Winds
will veer from ene to NW with the passage of the low
Friday... Conditions should improve toVFR by mid-morning but nw
winds will likely gust 25 to 30 kt during day. Brief local MVFR
conditions are possible in scattered showers.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...VFR conditions expected but NW winds
will continue to gust 30 to 35 kt.

Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions with winds
generally 10 kt or less.

Monday and Monday night... MVFR countdowns possible in areas of
rain or snow showers. Winds around 10 kt shifting from SW to n
on Monday.

Tuesday...VFR conditions with NE winds around 10 kt.

Marine
Easterly and southeasterly gale force gusts are expected to continue
through the evening hours. A gale warning is now effect for the
delaware bay and the delaware and nj coastal waters. There may be a
lull in the gale conditions late tonight as the wind direction
shifts to northwesterly. However, by Friday morning, wind speeds are
expected to be above gale force once again. Northwesterly gales will
then continue through the day on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... Northwesterly gales continue for much of
this period, but wind speeds should gradually drop off late
Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday into Monday... Winds and seas are expected to be below small
craft advisory conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... Northeasterly winds are likely to
increase starting Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas
should subsequently increase as well.

Hydrology
During the last 24 hours, forecast models have been trending upward
with their qpf, especially across SE pa. The 72 hour precip
forecast, out of the marfc, now has a large swath of 1.50 to 3.00
inches of rainfall across the southern poconos, berks county,
the lehigh valley, the philly suburbs, and NW nj.

As a result, our river stream forecast points are responding. We now
have about a dozen gages in at least caution action stage. While we
will see a significant response across nj, SE pa has a greater
chance to see water over banks. Across the intricate passaic basin
in northern nj, there are about 5 gages now forecast to climb above
caution stage. If the heaviest rainfall expands east into this area,
minor flooding would then be expected. The millstone river in the
raritan basin could also see some minor flooding.

With the heaviest rainfall expected across SE pa, this is where we
are seeing the most significant rises. Portions of the schuylkill
and brandywine are now expected to flood. The smaller creeks and
streams across SE pa and across northern delaware will also see
levels approach or exceed bankfull. Additionally, the perkiomen
creek, the neshaminy creek and portions of the lehigh system,
especially the headwaters of the little lehigh need to be monitored.

In terms of timing, the heaviest rains will fall between 18z today
and 06z tonight. Poor drainage and low-lying flooding, like it
always does, will initiate first. That will start to develop this
afternoon. This rain runoff will move into fast responding creeks
this evening. That water will then bleed into the larger rivers and
streams overnight.

If the rainfall and the flooding comes to fruition, I would expected
river flooding to persist across SE pa through at least the day
tomorrow. The passaic basin in nj responds more slowly. Any flooding
that might develop there will be slower to do so and most likely
last into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
No changes to the coastal flood warnings advisories have been
made this afternoon, with the general expectation that
widespread minor coastal flooding will occur with this evening's
high tide. Local moderate flooding may be observed in coastal
locations of middlesex and monmouth counties, though stevens
institute ensemble guidance is indicating the more likely
outcome is for levels just under moderate flood stage in most
locations.

In the advisory area of coastal new jersey and delaware, concern
is increasing for somewhat higher levels than guidance is
currently suggesting. Winds have been stronger than expected
this afternoon, with gale-force gusts occurring on delaware bay
and the atlantic waters for the past couple of hours. Models
have trended a little higher with projected gauge levels this
evening, and this makes sense owing to recent conditions. Though
widespread minor flooding is the more likely outcome in these
areas, some spotty instances of moderate flooding cannot be
ruled out. Minor flooding is also expected on the tidal
delaware river overnight.

Additionally, the slowing trend of the associated coastal low
with today's model runs leads to somewhat increased potential of
another round of minor flooding for Friday morning's high tide,
especially on the new jersey coast. If current trends continue,
additional advisories for this high tide will be required.

Strong offshore flow will commence on Friday, which will end
the coastal flooding threat for subsequent high tides.

No flooding is expected on the upper eastern shore of
chesapeake bay.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flood watch until 6 am edt Friday for paz060>062-070-071-
101>106.

Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 6 am edt Friday for paz070-
071-106.

Nj... Flood watch until 6 am edt Friday for njz007>010-012-015>019.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Friday for njz020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for njz016.

Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 6 am edt Friday for njz015-
017>019.

Coastal flood warning until 2 am edt Friday for njz012>014.

De... Flood watch until 6 am edt Friday for dez001.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Friday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for dez001.

Md... Flood watch until 6 am edt Friday for mdz008-012.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc
marine... Amc johnson
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 13 mi40 min E 14 G 16 51°F 48°F1004.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi40 min E 11 G 17 51°F 47°F1002.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi40 min E 12 G 14 50°F 44°F1004.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 23 mi40 min 1003.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 30 mi40 min E 14 G 19 51°F 45°F1003 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 33 mi124 min E 6 50°F 1006 hPa50°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi40 min ENE 13 G 16 50°F 1002.4 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi40 min ENE 15 G 19 50°F 1001.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 35 mi40 min E 8.9 G 13 50°F 47°F1002.4 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi40 min 50°F 50°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 40 mi40 min 51°F 1001.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi40 min 50°F 46°F1005.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi34 min ENE 19 G 22 52°F 45°F1001.6 hPa (-5.2)52°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD14 mi3.6 hrsENE 103.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F94%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E12------------------NE8NE10NE10NE12CalmNE5--N5NE10E10--NE14NE12
G23
1 day agoS8S5------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S10S10SE10SE10--SE10NE9
2 days agoSE5Calm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE3NE6NE7S8S10S12SE10S7

Tide / Current Tables for Sassafras River, Betterton, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.09 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:31 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2-2.1-1.9-1.4-0.61.422.32.21.70.7-1.3-1.9-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.20.71.72.22.21.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.