Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Betterton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:51PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:46 PM EST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 639 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect Sunday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog this evening. Widespread drizzle and light rain likely this evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt late. Waves 1 ft...building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt... Diminishing to 35 kt late. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 639 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the middle mississippi river valley tonight, strengthening as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada through Sunday. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely overnight Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Betterton, MD
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location: 39.37, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240000
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
700 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A powerful storm system tracking through the great lakes will
bring rain to the area tonight and tomorrow. A cold front will
cross the region late tomorrow, with very strong winds behind it
on Sunday night and Monday. High pressure builds in with cooler
and dry weather for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. A weak
frontal system may bring some light rain or snow late Wednesday
into Thursday. Additional unsettled weather is likely for the
end of the week as another storm system develops nearby.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Surface high pressure centered off the new england coast will
continue to move offshore overnight as a weak low pressure
system from the coastal carolinas moves toward the mid-atlantic
region. Meanwhile, a warm front associated with a stronger low
pressure system moving through the great lakes region is
expected to reinvigorate the coastal low during the late
overnight hours, allowing warmer air... Both aloft and at the
surface... To surge northward, which in turn will slow, then
reverse the normal nighttime downward trend in temperatures
across the forecast area. This will result in above-freezing
temperatures overnight for most locations except for the far
northern counties (carbon monroe sussex)where a few hours of
subfreezing temperatures could result in a period of freezing
rain, especially at the higher elevations. We have issued a
winter weather advisory for those areas. It is in effect until
midnight.

Rain will start out on the light side, but then pick up and
become heavy at times during the late overnight hours as an
onshore flow interacts with lift associated with the advancing
warm front, secondary low pressure system, and an upper level
jet. The heaviest totals (1 to 1.5 inches) are expected across
the DELMARVA and southern nj, with up to 1 inch possible north
of the fall line (eastern pa, northern and central nj). With
3-hour FFG values near or over 2 inches in the south, and
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches in the north, flood watches have not
been issued. However, given the expected synoptic situation,
convective-like downpours are possible which may result in
rainfall rates high enough to produce localized flash flooding
in a few spots. In addition to all this, a few rumbles of
thunder are also possible.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Heavy rain will gradually subside during the morning hours as
the warm front lifts northeast and its companion cold front
pushes in from the west. Easterly winds will shift to the south,
with temperatures surging into the upper 50s to near 60 south
and even into the low 50s in the north. Then as the cold front
moves through starting in the early afternoon hours in the west,
the wind will abruptly shift to the west, and temperatures will
begin to fall. Winds could gust to around 55 mph in the post
cold front environment in the north, and these gusts, in
combination with soggy ground, could result in downed
trees... Especially in the higher elevations. A high wind warning
has been posted for this area for Sunday afternoon through most
of Monday. Strong winds may be delayed into the evening hours
further south, so a high wind watch remains in effect for those
areas.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Sunday night through Monday... The winds ramp up on Sunday night
as the upper jet crosses the region. Winds aloft are impressive
and around 140-200 kt at 500mb as the jet rolls through. Even
winds at 850mb are strong and in the 60-80 kt range. While winds
aloft are especially robust, we won't be seeing the strongest
of them mixing down to the surface as the timing is just not
right for ideal mixing to occur. However, expect a good deal of
wind to make it to the surface in the strong cold air advection
and it will remain quite gusty overnight and then continue
through Monday. Winds will start to come down through the day on
Monday as the gradient starts to weaken some.

High wind warning is in effect for portions of nj and pa
through 6pm Mon as confidence is higher that we will reach 50
mph gusts or greater. We keep a high wind watch up for the rest
of the areas where confidence is a bit lower. This will allow us
a chance to get a better look at the new data and then decide
if a warning or advisory would be the way to go. Either way, be
sure to secure any loose items outside as they will be sure to
blow around in these winds.

In addition to the gusty winds, some pretty cold air will move
into the region. While it won't be the coldest air we have seen
this year so far, it will drop temperatures on average around 20
degrees from Sunday to Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the
30s north and west of the i-78 corridor and in the 40s through
the i-95 corridor and points south and east.

As we head into Tuesday, we see a relatively dry period start
across the region. High pressure will build across the mid-
atlantic through midweek, eventually crossing just to the north
of our area. At this point the models start to diverge and show
varying solutions as to what will affect the region. The ecmwf
is stronger with the high and has it taking its time as it
crosses the area, moving to the north and then offshore on
Thursday. This solution would keep us dry through much of the
week. The GFS has the high crossing to the north of the area on
Wednesday with a clipper-type system moving quickly through late
Wednesday into Thursday. The canadian has a similar solution to
the GFS but there are enough differences in timing and strength
to throw some doubt into the forecast. While the atmosphere
appears to be pretty dry, don't expect much would fall to the
ground in the GFS scenario but since the pattern is unsettled at
this point, we will continue to mention at least a slight
chance of precipitation through the midweek period and then see
if the models can become better aligned in the coming days.

For the end of the week, there is the potential for a coastal
storm to develop off of the southeastern us coast. Models keep
it offshore but another low inland over the ohio valley will
track into our area, bringing the chance for another round of
wintry precipitation.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Conditions lowering to ifr in rain. The wind should
favor the east around 4 to 8 knots.

Sunday... Ifr in rain during the morning. The rain should end
with ceilings lifting toVFR in the afternoon. Variable wind
less than 10 knots in the early morning, becoming southwest
around 6 to 10 knots during the late morning and early afternoon
hours at which time low level wind shear is possible. A cold
front from the west should pass through our region between 20z
and 22z. The wind direction will shift to the west and speeds
are forecast to increase to 14 to 18 knots with gusts of 24 to
28 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. West northwest winds 10 to 20
kts with gusts to 40 kts possible Sunday night, increasing to 20
to 30 kts with gusts 45+ kts possible Monday. Moderate
confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15
kts. High confidence.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Rain snow showers with
sub-VFR conditions possible. Light winds. Low confidence.

Thursday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts, with possibly
higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions exist on the waters currently and
should remain this way through tonight. However, conditions will
deteriorate quickly on Sunday as onshore flow tonight becomes
more southerly during the day. Advisory conditions should
commence on the atlantic waters during the morning. Winds will
continue to veer to southwest or west by afternoon. By this
point, advisory-level winds are anticipated on delaware bay.

The only change to the small craft advisory was to change the
start time for delaware bay to noon. Otherwise, the advisory
continues through 6 pm, with gales commencing as winds shift to
westerly thereafter.

Periods of rain will occur tonight and tomorrow, with
visibility restrictions probable and possibly even some embedded
convection as well. Given the strong winds aloft,
erratic strong wind gusts may occur with the more showery
precipitation on Sunday. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled
out.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Very strong west winds will develop
Sunday night and Monday, with gales likely everywhere and storm-
force winds possible (especially off the coast of northern new
jersey). The gale watch for delaware bay and the southern nj de
atlantic waters was upgraded to a gale warning, and the storm
watch continues for the northern nj coastal waters for this
period. With such strong offshore winds, blowout tides are
likely to occur, perhaps with the Monday morning high tide but
more likely with the Monday evening high tide.

Monday night... Winds will rapidly diminish during this period,
but residual gale-force gusts are possible in the evening. At
least advisory-level winds are expected through the night.

Tuesday... Lingering advisory conditions possible, mainly over
the atlantic waters.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Sub-advisory winds seas
expected.

Hydrology
The majority of the rain will fall this evening through midday
Sunday.

Using the 1.00 to 1.50 of qpf, there are responses at our
forecast points. No flooding is currently forecast, but models
do put some crests near bankful. Over the weekend, keep an eye
these forecast points... The north branch rancocas at pemberton,
the millstone river at blackwells mills, the passaic river at
millington and pine brook, and the rockaway river at boonton.

Outside of the passaic river, flooding potential is low on our
other mainstem rivers.

So as the event unfolds tonight, look for minor flooding across
areas of poor drainage and in low-lying areas. Some smaller
creeks that have been prone to high water the last six months
will be prone once again this weekend. This water will
runoff make it into the above mentioned larger creeks and
streams on Saturday night. Rises can be expected late tonight,
Sunday, Sunday night, and maybe into Monday. If flooding occurs
at any of our forecast points, it appears the flooding wouldn't
initiate until Sunday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... High wind warning from 2 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for
paz054-055-060>062-101-103-105.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for paz070-071-102-104-106.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for paz054-
055.

Nj... High wind warning from 2 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for
njz001-007>010.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for njz012>027.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for njz001.

De... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for dez001>004.

Md... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for
anz450>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for anz430-
431-452>455.

Storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm est Sunday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Iovino miketta
short term... Miketta
long term... Meola
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Cms
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi47 min ENE 8.9 G 12 37°F 39°F1025.1 hPa (-1.2)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 16 mi47 min ESE 4.1 G 8 38°F 39°F1025.3 hPa (-1.7)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 28 mi47 min E 11 G 13 38°F 37°F1025 hPa (-2.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi47 min ESE 6 G 7 38°F 1024.8 hPa (-1.4)
FSNM2 28 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 12 37°F 1024.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 28 mi47 min 1024.4 hPa (-2.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi47 min ESE 6 G 8.9 38°F 39°F1024.3 hPa (-1.5)
CPVM2 32 mi47 min 38°F 38°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi47 min 38°F 1024 hPa (-1.6)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi47 min ENE 8 G 11 38°F 38°F1025.3 hPa (-1.5)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi137 min ENE 4.1 38°F 1024 hPa37°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 39 mi47 min NNE 9.9 G 11 38°F 39°F1025.2 hPa (-1.4)38°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 45 mi47 min 40°F 40°F1024.7 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi62 minN 02.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist39°F39°F100%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm------------------NW4NW4CalmNW4NW6N6N6CalmN5NW5NW5NW4N4NW4
1 day agoN4------------------SW5CalmCalmS4SW5SW5SW4S5NW5--W10W10CalmCalm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Betterton, Maryland
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Betterton
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Sat -- 05:56 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:29 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.410.60.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.20.71.21.61.71.61.20.80.3-0-0.3-0.3-00.40.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:34 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:05 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:09 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:01 PM EST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-1-1.7-2.1-2.1-1.9-1.4-0.61.322.22.11.50.6-1.3-1.8-2-1.8-1.4-0.811.72.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.