Thursday, March22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Millville, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday March 22, 2018 5:51 AM EDT (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 346 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Occasional flurries early this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening, then 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 346 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. In the wake of the departing nor'easter, high pressure in canada will slowly build south towards our region through the end of the week. A low pressure system propagating from the southern plains to the southeastern u.s. Should remain south of our region late this weekend. High pressure builds over our region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millville, NJ
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location: 39.39, -75.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220904
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
504 am edt Thu mar 22 2018

In the wake of the departing nor'easter, high pressure in canada
will slowly build south towards our region through the end of
the week. A low pressure system propagating from the southern
plains to the southeastern u.S. Should remain south of our
region late this weekend. High pressure builds over our region
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Remainder of the winter storm warning has been canceled as only
areas of light snow remain in the northeastern portions of the
region. No significant additional accumulation is expected, and
we should see snow continue to diminish across our region.

In the wake of the departing low, should have a relatively
tranquil, albeit cold day. Thanks to the northwesterly flow,
cold air advection, and fresh snow pack, temperatures will be
10 to 15 degrees below normal, with highs forecasted between the
lower 30s in the poconos and mid 40s elsewhere. This is slightly
below MOS guidance as that tends to have a warm bias immediately
following a snow event. While there will be some melting thanks
to the temperatures above freezing, expect much of the region
will keep a substantial snowpack going into this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Thanks to clearing skies, temperatures tonight are expected to
be lower than what we saw this morning, with lows tonight
forecasted to be generally in the 20s across the region. As a
result, any water on the roads from snow melt during the day
could freeze leading to slippery conditions on area roads
tonight into early Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday... Clearing skies on Thursday night will be short lived as
a mid and upper level low, digs quickly southeast over the
region through the day. This will result not only in increasing
clouds, but also possibly some rain and snow showers, especially
along and north of the i-78 corridor through the day. As noted
in the previous forecast, the ECMWF continues to show dry
conditions this day, and moisture could be very limited with
little chance for moisture advection before this event. However,
lower resolution models tend to underforecast precip with these
types of clipper systems, so kept pops close to the previous

Did not spend much time on the forecast beyond Friday to focus
on wrapping up the winter storm event. From the previous
discussion... Another strong vort MAX moves southward from
eastern canada on Saturday as a separate vort MAX moves west-
to- east through the central u.S. And interacts with the digging
perturbation. Attendant surface low in the central plains
Saturday looks to be shunted southward somewhat as it tracks
into the ohio tennessee valleys. Just how far south is a
challenging question, with considerable disagreement among the
operational guidance. The GFS looks especially suspicious,
though, given its very progressive evolution of the northern-
stream vort max. The 12z cmc ECMWF are slower and (as a result)
have the track of the southern- stream system a little farther
north. This may give the DELMARVA peninsula a chance for some
precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, there are
some indications that as the surface low intensifies off the
coast that wraparound (light) precipitation may affect the
eastern CWA on Sunday (aided by the passage of the main
northern-stream vort max). Cannot discount chances of rain
and or snow for much (if any) of the area during this period, so
kept slight-chance pops in the grids. If the southward-
deflection of the southern-stream system occurs later than
anticipated, this may bring somewhat heavier precipitation into
the area (especially delmarva). A low- confidence forecast
exists for this period, to be sure.

Strong ridging develops early next week as the strong cyclonic
vortex meanders eastward off the atlantic coast. This should bring a
prolonged dry period to the area along with a warming trend. A
system may affect the region by mid to late week, but models have
large timing differences. Generally included slight-chance to low-
chance pops on Wednesday for now, but temperatures fortunately look
more seasonal by then.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected with only high clouds (15000
agl or higher). Northwesterly winds near or below 10 kt. High


Friday: potential for MVFR or lowVFR CIGS and rain snow
showers, especially north of abe-ttn. Northwest winds 5 to 15
kts with potential for gusts to 20 kts or so. Moderate

Friday night and Saturday:VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts,
potentially lighter during the night. High confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday: some potential for sub-vfr conditions
with light rain and or snow. Winds north to northeast under 10 kts
Saturday night and 10 to 20 kts on Sunday. Very low confidence.

Winds continue to diminish, but expect to see gale force
conditions continue through at least sunrise on the lower
delaware bay and the coastal waters. On the upper delaware bay,
small craft advisory conditions will continue towards sunrise.

Today and tonight... Winds and seas will continue to subside,
but expect SCA conditions to continue on the coastal waters for
much of this period. On the delaware bay, winds and waves will
likely subside below SCA criteria by mid day.


Friday and Friday night: may see a lull in winds on Friday
morning, but they should increase again by afternoon evening to
advisory criteria.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected. A
slight chance of rain and or snow late, especially near south of
delaware bay.

Sunday: advisory-level northeast winds expected, with some potential
for gales (though this is low confidence). Some potential for rain
and or snow.

There were several record daily maximum snowfalls set yesterday,
march 21st. This occurred at philadelphia, wilmington and allentown
(which smashed their daily record). Atlantic city just missed the
daily snowfall record.

Location record for 3 21 actual snowfall 3 21 18
-------- --------------- -----------------------
phl 4.7" (1932) 6.7"
acy 5.9" (1889) 5.7"
ilg 5.4" (1964) 6.7"
abe 4.3" (1964) 13.2"

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until noon edt today for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz430.

Gale warning until 6 am edt early this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms johnson
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson
climate... Gorse

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi57 min N 32 G 38 36°F 1007.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi51 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 35°F 39°F1007.3 hPa (+1.3)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 30 mi51 min 31°F 40°F1008.7 hPa (+0.7)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi141 min NW 7 32°F 1008 hPa32°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 32 mi81 min NW 7 31°F 1006 hPa31°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 32 mi51 min NW 11 G 16 34°F 38°F1009 hPa (+0.7)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 33 mi51 min 34°F 39°F1006.8 hPa (+1.3)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 35 mi57 min 34°F 40°F1008.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 38 mi51 min 32°F 40°F1008 hPa (+0.7)
BDSP1 41 mi51 min 34°F 43°F1008.4 hPa (+0.8)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 42 mi51 min NNW 24 G 30 36°F 39°F1008.1 hPa (+1.1)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi57 min 34°F 40°F1009.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi75 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 33°F 41°F1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ2 mi57 minNW 910.00 miOvercast33°F32°F96%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE16
1 day agoE8NE10NE11NE12NE12
2 days agoW4W5W7W8N10N9N9NE9--5--E11E10E9E7E3E3CalmE3E4NE7NE7NE6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Millville, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Port Elizabeth, Manumuskin River, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Port Elizabeth
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.