Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 2:20PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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location: 39.4, -84.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 231404
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1004 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Return southeast flow will allow temperatures to modify today.

A warm front will push northeast through the region tonight,
bringing a few showers to the area. Temperatures will continue
to warm on Friday as southerly flow increases. A low pressure
system over the central plains will slowly move into the great
lakes and ohio valley this weekend. Warm temperatures will
continue along with an increasing threat of showers and

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Cirrus spilling into the region will continue to be thin. But
some thicker mid clouds will move in from the west later in the
day. Still should be a good amount of Sun area wide. Forecast
temperatures look reasonable at this point.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday/
Models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of positions and
of subsequent forecasts of synoptic scale systems.

For tonight, a mid level ridge will build northward and eastward
into the ohio valley. As this occurs, a warm front will push
northeast through our area. Clouds will thicken this evening
with a few showers possible for locations north of the ohio
river overnight as this area will be on the southern fringe
of better moist/isentropic lift farther to the north. Lows will
bottom out early, then steady out or slowly rise toward morning
as southerly flow increases. Temperatures will range from the
lower 40s northeast to the upper 40s southwest.

On Friday, the ohio valley will be warm sectored in the wake of
the warm front while a mid level ridge axis shifts east. Models
are indicating quite a bit of low level moisture in the return
low level southerly flow. This will likely result in stratus
clouds early on which will likely convert over to low level
cumuliform clouds during the afternoon. As a result, have kept
skies mostly cloudy. Despite cloud cover, stiff southerly winds
with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range will boost highs into the
mid and upper 60s.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
An unsettled pattern will be setting up over the ohio valley through
the weekend, turning more progressive but continuing to be active
going into the early part of next week.

On Friday night, the iln CWA will be within a regime of generally
low pressure, stuck between highs off the southeast coast and over
northern ontario. The 500mb pattern will be amplifying in the
vicinity of the ohio valley, even as relatively tranquil conditions
are expected at the start of the long term forecast period on Friday
night and Saturday morning. Well within the warm sector, heights
will be rising as ridging builds into the mississippi valley, with a
frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary across michigan and new
york. To the west, a complex stacked low pressure system will begin
to take shape over the plains, moving slowly east -- near st louis
by Sunday morning, then finally clearing the ohio valley by Monday

Confidence continues to increase in the overall timing and placement
with this system, though the 00z ECMWF solution remains slightly
slower than the 00z gfs. The first part of Saturday is generally
expected to be dry, outside of a few showers developing in the
continued isentropic ascent. It is expected that there will be
several rounds of showers (and potentially thunderstorms) along with
this system, running primarily from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon. Though the overall motion of the low will be slow, the
juxtaposition of upper support, low level moisture transport, and
500mb vorticity advection will result in the possibility of multiple
time periods in which showers and possibly thunderstorms will be
able to develop. There continues to be strong agreement in a well-
defined wave moving through the region late Saturday evening through
Sunday morning, and this period has been timed out with categorical
pops. On either side of this (Saturday afternoon and Sunday
afternoon) the forcing is not as well defined, but showers and
storms will be possible -- without seeing the mesoscale details,
getting more specific on timing is not yet possible. Thunder has
been included as a possibility on both days as well. This system
will have a respectable feed of theta-e and a tight/compact 850mb-
700mb low, so forcing and moisture should be sufficient for
widespread precipitation. In general, the modeling of instability
has been very fickle -- changing slightly from run to run, never
higher-end, and largely limited by the moist profile and poor mid-
level lapse rates. Building off of that analysis, with questionable
instability, the possibility for heavier rainfall or strong storms
is less certain -- also owing to differences in model specifics and
a pattern that is not necessarily a classic setup for either threat.

Nonetheless, with decent moisture and some turning in the wind field
near the low, there is at least a low-end potential to watch and
refine the forecast for in the next few days.

As the low weakens and moves away from the area late Sunday into
Monday, the weather pattern over the ohio valley will become very
wavy -- characterized with short wavelengths and progressive
motions. A narrow ridge behind the stacked low will provide a
reasonable chance for dry conditions for early Monday, but the busy
500mb pattern will mean that this dry period will not stick around
for long. Though there are some timing and amplitude differences
(even within the GEFS member spread) the next wave is expected to
move through Monday night into early Tuesday, producing widespread
precipitation across the area. However, until timing is better
handled, pops will be kept at 50 percent for this feature.

Subsidence behind the wave will likely lead to drier conditions
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The continued warming trend into Saturday is likely to bring
temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with warmest
conditions in the southeastern cwa, where precipitation is more
likely to hold off until later. Precipitation will keep the
temperature forecast a little lower for Sunday, before warming again
slightly on Monday -- with the air mass changing very little in
general, as the main boundary will remain well north of the area.

This will change after Tuesday, as the Monday night / Tuesday wave
will bring a cold front into the region, beginning a slight cooling
trend going into the middle of the week. Nonetheless, temperatures
should still remain above normal, even on Wednesday.

Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure will move off to our east today while a warm
front organizes to our southwest and moves northeast toward the
region. Mid and high level clouds will thicken today as they
move in from the west. Easterly surface flow will veer to the
southeast with some local gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.

For tonight, a mid level ridge will build northward and shift
east into the ohio valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front
will push northeast through our region. A strengthening low
level jet will focus most of its convergence and strongest moist
ascent into wisconsin and michigan. However, models continue to
hint that a few showers will still be possible, especially for
the northern terminals as this region will be on the southern
extent of the better waa/lift. Clouds will gradually lower into
the 6000-9000 foot range through early morning, then they will
briefly lift back up to around 15000 kft once the warm front
passes by. In addition, winds will increase from the south late
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
off to our east and low pressure moving into the central/southern
plains. The low level jet will become strong enough warrant a
period of non convective llws in the terminals as we approach
06z and then waning toward 15z Friday. Models still indicate
the potential for MVFR ceilings toward 12z as low level
moisture is advected north. Some models suggest ceilings in the
1500 to 2500 foot range by Friday morning.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings possible on Friday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities likely Saturday night into Sunday along with a
chance of thunderstorms.

Iln watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman
near term...

short term... Hickman
long term... Hatzos
aviation... Hickman

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Butler County Regional Airport, OH4 mi30 minESE 810.00 miFair43°F19°F40%1032.5 hPa
Hook Field Municipal Airport, OH13 mi28 minESE 710.00 miFair42°F9°F26%1032.5 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH22 mi30 minESE 910.00 miFair45°F18°F34%1032 hPa
Dayton, Dayton-Wright Brothers Airport, OH23 mi30 minE 7 G 1610.00 miFair40°F19°F45%1032 hPa

Wind History from HAO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE9N9NE8E10
1 day agoCalmE4--NW5N10
2 days agoS3S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.