Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 8:29 PM   Moonset 5:55 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 241004 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 604 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring cool and dry conditions today and Thursday.
Temperatures moderate by the end of the week and rain chances return.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A cold front attached to a surface low in southeast Canada will continue pushing through the Ohio Valley this morning. Winds shift to the west behind the front which will allow cooler, drier air to work in from the northwest. The magnitude of the diurnal temperature trace is likely to be suppressed due to CAA and some clouds today.
Forecast highs only reach into the lower 50s north of I-70 to the middle 60s south of the Ohio River. Winds are expected to start weakening by the late afternoon and cloud cover should begin to scatter which will give way to a chilly night for late April.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Surface high pressure builds in from the north tonight. Fairly favorable conditions for radiational cooling are expected although there could be some lingering lower level clouds and 850 hPa moisture. A Freeze Watch remains in the highlighting areas where temperatures are most likely to drop below freezing. Once cloud cover is better resolved in the mesoscale guidance, updated frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed.
Forecast lows range from the lower to middle 30s areawide.

Surface high pressure continues slowly drifting east on Thursday.
Winds remain out of the northeast which allows highs to remain suppressed in the upper 50s to middle 60s despite abundant sunshine.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A pattern change will be in the offing as we head into Thursday night and Friday. A mid level ridge will move east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Once we get on the back side of this ridge, a warm front will move northeast into the region. This front will bring an increase in moisture along with an enhanced low level jet.
The result will be an increasing chance for pcpn (showers, perhaps a few rumbles of thunder). After lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, increasing southerly flow will boost temperatures into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on Friday.

For Friday night into Saturday, the warm front will move northeast into the Great Lakes. Pcpn ongoing Friday night will diminish on Saturday as the region becomes warm sectored. After lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, highs on Saturday will warm into the 75 to 80 degree range.

The remainder of the weekend may be relatively dry as we remain warm sectored with just a low chance of a shower or storm. Temperatures will further warm into the upper 70s to the lower/mid 80s.

By Monday, a mid level trough will finally make in roads into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, pushing a cold front southeast into the region. This will bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms as the front interacts with an unstable airmass. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s west to the lower/mid 80s east.

By Tuesday, the front is forecast to exit to the east, bringing an end to the pcpn threat, which will allow high pressure to build back into the area for mid week. Temperatures will remain above normal in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR and IFR ceilings, with some VFR holes, are expected to continue through the morning for all sites before scattering for the Cincinnati sites by 1800z. Any lingering MVFR ceilings are forecast to finally scatter for the northern sites between 1800z-0000z. VFR conditions will persist overnight after 0000z for all sites.

Westerly winds will veer through the day to the north. Winds eventually subside to light and variable after 0000z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-065.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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