Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Absecon, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:15PM Friday July 28, 2017 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1210 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers early, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then 4 to 7 ft in the late evening and overnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers. Tstms likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds around 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1210 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will develop near the tennessee valley today and move along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Absecon, NJ
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location: 39.42, -74.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 281619
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1219 pm edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will
develop along the front near the tennessee valley today and move
along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low
will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into
the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Showers and thunderstorms over the dc bwi area tracking to the
east and moving into northeast md. With sb CAPE values 2000-3000
j kg across the delmarva, there is plenty of instability and
with surface dewpoints in the low 70s, there is plenty of
moisture with which to work. These storms are slowly moving, so
once they do make it into the region, the threat for flooding
and flash flooding will begin.

This afternoon and tonight... The stage is set for the second
high impact heavy rainfall event in less than a week across the
southern tier of the forecast area this afternoon and tonight.

The greatest concern over the next 24 hours will be flash
flooding. Here are a few points on this topic:
1) forecast confidence for the occurrence of heavy rainfall
is high.

2) there could be numerous occurrences of flash flooding late
this afternoon and tonight (i.E., not just a highly isolated
localized risk as we commonly see in summer-time flash flood
events).

3) a southward trend in the axis of heaviest QPF has been noted the
model guidance last night. This makes meteorological sense as the
sustained deeper convection needed to produce heavy rainfall rates
(greater than 2" per hour) will be favored in the unstable warm
sector along and south of the stationary front. We have seen several
events recently where this has happened and the heaviest rainfall
shifted farther south than earlier indications. We opted to trim the
northern tier of counties along i-195 in central new jersey and north
of the pa turnpike in eastern pennsylvania from the flash flood watch.

Otherwise the watch remains unchanged.

4) the axis of heaviest rain is looking like it could potentially
fall over the same areas south of the mason-dixon line that were
drenched with 3-6" (locally higher amounts) of rainfall since last
weekend. Since area basins and soils have not had time to recover,
it will not take nearly as much rain to flood.

5) the flash flood risk ramps up in DELMARVA late this afternoon
in concert with diurnal convection that develops along a
stationary front nearby. Complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms
containing torrential downpours is then expected to become
better organized as it expands northward into SE pa S nj this
evening. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue into the overnight.

There will also be a threat for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and into this evening, mainly
across delmarva. SPC has the southern two-thirds of the cwa
(south of i-78) in a d1 marginal risk for severe storms, which
represents a downgrade from the slight risk across DELMARVA with
yesterday's d2 outlook. The main convective threat would be
locally damaging winds from wet microbursts. Cloud cover,
especially over the southern half of area, should limit how much
the atmosphere can destabilize during the day, thus placing
some uncertainty on the severe setup.

Short term Saturday
The models are now trending back to a progressive solution that
pulls the coastal storm away from the area faster than
yesterday's runs were showing. There will still be rains and
gusty winds over the area Saturday morning, but the rains will
end from N W to S E during the day and into the evening. Kept
the 2 pm Saturday ending time for the flash flood watch, but it
may be able to be cancelled earlier if this latest trend holds
true.

Winds will become gusty as the low deepens and pulls away.

Highs will only be in the 60s over the lehigh valley and points
n W while highs in the low 70s will be over the delaware valley
and central nj. Highs over srn DELMARVA and the SRN tip of nj
could reach the upper 70s to low 80s on sat.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A couple of showers could linger across southern DELMARVA or se
nj Sunday into early Monday, but by-in-large fair weather will
return to most of the area. High pressure near chicago Sunday
will begin to usher in drier air from the N w. Temperatures will
be a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s over the SRN areas and low mid 70s across the north.

Lows will be in the 50s N W and low 60s S e.

The fair weather should extend deeper into next week as the high
continues to move across the ohio valley and then the middle
atlantic region. This and and rising h5 heights will contribute to
temperatures climbing back to above normal readings by mid-week.

Highs could reach the upper 80s with a few low 90s possible by
wed thu. An approaching front cloud bring a few tstms Thu afternoon
mostly to the N W areas.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Still some lingering MVFR CIGS at kacy, otherwiseVFR.

Showers and thunderstorms developing south and west of the
terminals this afternoon are expected to expand northeastward
later in the day. This activity is expected to organize become
widespread after sunset this evening and continue into the
overnight. MVFR conditions are anticipated but locally heavy
rainfall will lead to poor visibility (lifr) at times tonight.

The heaviest rainfall and poorest visibilities is expected to
setup just south of phl.

Ne winds around 5 kt this morning will veer slightly out of
the E and increase to 5-10 kt this afternoon, then back out the
ne again and increase to 10-15 kt tonight as surface low
pressure develops to our south.

Outlook...

sat Sat night... Widespread MVFR ifr slowly improving from N w
to S e. Winds becoming gusty. Sun... MostlyVFR, but a few
showers S e. Sun night thru tue...VFR expected. Patchy overnight
fog psbl.

Marine
A NE wind around 5-10 kt will develop across the coastal nj
waters as the morning progresses, but may briefly shift out of
the E this afternoon. A NE wind will strengthen tonight to
around 10 kt in the de bay and adjacent coastal waters and to
around 15 kt farther north in the nj coastal waters. Winds
should quickly ramp up across these northern areas to around 20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

high end SCA or low end gale conditions for Sat into Sat night
for both the ocean and the bay, gale watch continues for now on
the ocean with some uncertainty remaining wrt locations and
intensity of psbl gale. The gale watch was expanded southward into
the de coastal waters and lower de bay.

Sca expected Mon into Tue on the ocean. Sub-sca later Tuesday.

Rip currents...

based on the latest trends and guidance, we will carry a low
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. While
the flow will become onshore today, wind speeds will be light.

Waves in the surf zone are expected to be in the 2-4 ft range.

A high risk is likely Saturday through Sunday, and possibly
into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding is possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning along the oceanfront. While astronomical tides lower,
a surge potential of 1-2 feet may put some oceanfront sites
into the minor category at the time of high tide.

There is the potential for high surf with breakers of at least
8 feet along oceanfront beaches on Saturday and Sunday. A high
surf advisory may be needed. Beach erosion is also possible.

Climate
Daily rainfall records for today and Saturday at our climate
sites are listed below...

7 28 7 29
acy 2.05 (2012) 2.21 (1884)
phl 8.02 (2013) 3.53 (1980)
ilg 2.34 (1914) 1.85 (1913)
abe 3.00 (1969) 1.64 (1979)
ttn 2.35 (2012) 2.84 (1961)
ged 2.80 (2016) 1.07 (1969)
rdg 3.57 (1969) 2.51 (1961)
mpo 2.15 (1969) 4.59 (1969)
july total
abe: 8.21" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 10.42" set in 1969.

Rdg: 8.02" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 13.85" set in 2004.

July average temps: projecting, for now, phl 0.9 above normal,
losing 1.3 positive departure from the values through the 26th.

Ditto approximately the same loss at our other cli sites will
show mpo a little below normal, ttn and acy near normal, and all
other stations above normal.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for paz070-071-
101-102-104.

Nj... Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for njz016>027.

De... Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... Gale watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for
anz431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Klein mps
short term... O'hara
long term... O'hara
aviation... Klein o'hara
marine... Klein o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 6 mi53 min 75°F 76°F1010.9 hPa (+0.3)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 8 mi83 min ENE 8.9 80°F 1011 hPa70°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 40 mi53 min E 8 G 11 78°F 76°F1009.8 hPa (+0.0)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 44 mi53 min SE 8.9 G 8.9 76°F 1010.6 hPa (+0.0)
44091 46 mi53 min 74°F3 ft
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi53 min SE 8.9 G 11 77°F 81°F1009.9 hPa (+0.0)
BDSP1 49 mi53 min 79°F 1010.7 hPa (-0.4)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi53 min 83°F 80°F1009.9 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ5 mi59 minENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1010.5 hPa

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Last 24hrS8S9S8S7S8S9S9S8S8S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE3NE4NE5NE7E5NE7
1 day agoSE7E8E8E8E6E9
G18
E8E5E3CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6SW6S7S7
2 days agoE10NE4E8E8E9E7E9E6E5E3E4E4E4CalmE4CalmCalmN5N4NE7NE7NE8NE7E9

Tide / Current Tables for Absecon, Absecon Creek, U.S. Hwy. 30 bridge, New Jersey
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Absecon
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Fri -- 01:05 AM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:46 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.24.54.33.62.71.60.70.20.10.51.52.53.43.94.13.732.21.30.70.50.71.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ventnor City, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Ventnor City
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:51 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:18 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.6431.90.90.2-0.10.41.22.33.244.54.33.62.61.60.90.50.71.42.33.13.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.