Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 3:35PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build in tonight into early Tuesday before a low pressure system moves up near the delmarva coast Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222009
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
409 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure in southeast virginia will move east of new jersey
later tonight while a weak cold front in central pennsylvania
crosses our area. Low pressure in north carolina Tuesday will pass
east of the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night. Weak high pressure is
left behind over our area on Wednesday. Stronger low pressure
organizes in the ohio valley Wednesday night sending its associated
fronts through the mid atlantic states early Friday. Then high
pressure follows on Saturday. However another storm system should
develop over the nations midsection Sunday, threatening to mar a
portion of Sunday or memorial day with a period or two of
showers.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
An occluded frontal boundary approaching the area from the west this
afternoon and evening is expected to move across the area tonight.

The associated warm front is expected to stay to our south as an
area of low pressure moves off the DELMARVA coast later this
evening. North of the warm front and low pressure, there will
continue to be showers moving across the area, with the heaviest
rainfall across southern new jersey and delware late this afternoon.

The majority of the showers are expected to dissipate this evening
and overnight.

There will be plenty of moisture around through tonight, especially
before the frontal boundary pushes through the area. As winds become
light and variable, it is possible that some fog may develop. How
thick it becomes is uncertain as there is some vorticity forecast to
move across the area, and positive low level lapse rates, so there
could be enough weak lift and turbulence to prevent it from become
widespread dense. So no dense fog advisory is planned at this
time.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday/
The frontal boundary that moves across the area overnight is
expected to stall to our south. An area of low pressure is forecast
to move along this boundary from the south, as the first low
pressure lifts to the northeast. The low pressure, nor the frontal
boundary, is expected to make its way back into our area during the
day, however there will be a chance of showers to lift across
portions of the area later during the day on the north side of the
low. The greatest chance for showers will be across southern
delmarva and souther new jersey. With no instability forecast, we do
not expect any thunderstorms across our area.

Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/
12z NAM not applied for this discussion. It was not off to a
good start today.

Hazards: it seems almost inevitable that some sort of hydro
related products will eventually be needed by next Monday in
this pattern but whether its more than nuisance flooding fls's
is debatable. All we know is that widespread 1.5 to 2.5"
occurred in less than 12 hours over parts of the DELMARVA and
southeast nj today with a fairly large area of 3+ in southeast
nj. Suspect isolated MAX amt of 4" today with small streams and
rivers still rising late today. Legacy dix stp was best with
considerable low bias in dox sta/stp and the mrms products.

500mb: 500mb: a sharpening and unusually strong high amplitude
trough in the nations midsection will closed off and weaken as
it moves to new england Friday, with ridging to follow this
weekend. The next trough will be organizing in the great lakes
region early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Wednesday-Saturday near
normal warming somewhat Sunday and Monday, ahead of the next
trough.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/22 gfs/nam MOS for
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then the 12z/22 gfs
mex MOS for Thursday with the 15z wpc guidance for Thursday
night-next Monday. We did modify guidance temps downward
Thursday and Sunday in response to ggem and ECMWF cooler
pattern.

The dailies...

forecaster confidence is below average on details the entire
period.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Depending on the path of the
next coastal... A pretty good chance of rain far southeast and
probably dry north where a nice Wednesday is expected. SREF pwat
is down.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Looks wet in warm air advection.

Questionable how much warming can occur with what looks to be a
neg tilt southern extension of the trough moving toward our area
and causing a triple pt low to approach. That also may permit a
better chance for isolated thunderstorms. SREF pwat back up to
1.5".

Friday... Partly sunny and a breezy west wind should develop
with afternoon warming and only a small chance of a residual
shower in the north.

Memorial day weekend... A good start is anticipated Saturday.

Sunday and Monday should see a period or two of showers and
possible thunderstorms. Still plenty of uncertainty but its not
looking to be a picture perfect weekend.

Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Ifr conditions remain across the TAF sites this afternoon as low
clouds and rain continue across the area. There has been some breaks
in the low level clouds, revealing some slightly higher cloud decks
across the area, so it is possible that there could be some
temporary MVFR conditions develop. But with the amount of moisture
around the area, we expect the lower clouds to fill back in.

An occluded cold front is forecast to move across the area overnight
tonight. As this front moves across the area overnight and toward
daybreak Tuesday, it is possible for conditions to improve to MVFR
from west to east. It is entirely possible that conditions may
improve toVFR during the day Tuesday, especially for abe and rdg.

But we will keep MVFR conditions further south across ilg, phl, pne,
and ttn. Ifr conditions remain in the forecast for acy and miv as
there is the possibility they may be affected by an area of rainfall
that lifts into our southern areas north of an area of low pressure
to our south.

Generally east-southeast winds will continue across the TAF sites
this afternoon north of the warm front to our south. However, winds
are expected to become light and variable this evening and
overnight. As the occluded frontal boundary moves across the area,
winds will become north-northwest to north-northeast. Speeds through
the next 24 hours are expected to be 5-10 knots or less.

Outlook...

forecaster confidence on details is below average through Friday
morning.

Tuesday night...VFR conditions north and possibly the entire area
but a risk of MVFR/ifr in showers vicinity kmiv/kacy. East to
northeast wind.

Wednesday...VFR except possible MVFR/ifr conditions during the
morning kmiv and kacy. East to northeast wind gusts to 15 mph.

Thursday...VFR CIGS with probable periods of MVFR/ifr in showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Easterly winds probably becoming
southeast to south at night.

Friday... Improving conditions after any early morning showers end
with mainlyVFR expected. Westerly wind gusts to 25 kt possible
in the afternoon.

Saturday...VFR. Westerly wind.

Marine
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
tonight through Tuesday. Wind directions will begin out of the
southeast this evening and overnight, before becoming north-
northwest to north-northeast late tonight into Tuesday as an
occluded front moves across the area.

Outlook...

forecaster confidence on this outlook section is below average
Tuesday night and Wednesday then above average thereafter.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... May need an SCA for hazardous seas
for the de atlantic coastal waters. Otherwise northeast to east
wind with gusts generally under 20 kt.

Thursday... SCA probable for the well organized ohio valley low.

East to southeast winds build the seas to between 5 and 8 feet
on the atlantic waters.

Friday... SCA may continue for leftover hazardous seas on the
atlantic portion of our coastal waters. Westerly wind develops
with nearshore gusts to 20-25 kt.

Saturday... Marine headlines not likely.

Hydrology
Hazards: it seems almost inevitable that some sort of hydro
related products will eventually be needed by next Monday in
this pattern but whether its more than nuisance flooding fls's
is debatable. All we know is that widespread 1.5 to 2.5"
occurred in less than 12 hours over parts of the DELMARVA and
southeast nj today with a fairly large area of 3+ in southeast
nj. Suspect isolated MAX amt of 4" today with small streams and
rivers still rising late today. Legacy dix stp was best with
considerable low bias in dox sta/stp and the mrms products.

Tides/coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are at some of their highest of the year
this Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Some onshore flow will
contribute positive departures and its probable that a few
locations along the atlantic coasts of de and nj will exceed the
minor coastal flood advisory threshold. It only takes about .6
to .7 feet above high tide to reach the threshold. It's all in
the details, which are yet to be confidently determined. The sit
and etss modeling forecasts minor with a small chance of a moderate
episode if, prior to high tide, onshore is strong enough for enough
duration. Right now... No action needed.

Climate
Record daily rainfall at acy has a good chance of exceedance.

1.19 inches is the daily record set in 1909. As of 359 pm...

1.85 inches fell.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drag 408
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Drag 408
aviation... Drag/robertson 408
marine... Drag/robertson 408
hydrology... 408
tides/coastal flooding... 408
climate... 408


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi51 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 68°F1015 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 12 mi33 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 67°F1014.9 hPa (-1.6)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi45 min 64°F 66°F1014.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi45 min N 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 65°F1014.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi45 min N 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 65°F1015.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi45 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 64°F 65°F1014.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi45 min 63°F 1014.3 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi33 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 66°F1015.3 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 39 mi45 min ESE 7 G 8 64°F 1014.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi45 min ESE 8 G 8.9 64°F 1014.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi45 min SE 5.1 G 6 66°F 69°F1014 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi45 min 64°F 64°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi45 min 65°F 1014.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi33 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 66°F1014.6 hPa (-1.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi33 min SE 5.1 G 6 64°F 66°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi35 minESE 310.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1015.2 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast65°F62°F90%1015 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8--SE9SE7SE6SE5SE6SE3CalmCalmE3E4E3E6E4E3E4--CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3
1 day agoE10E9E8E6E6SE3SE5E3CalmE3E3E3E6E6E6E5CalmS6SE9SE7SE6SE7SE7SE6
2 days agoSW5------Calm--SW6W4N5N5NE8NE7NE9NE8N8NE7E10E11NE11E11E12NE9E9E8

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:37 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.81.21.72.42.93.23.22.92.41.91.41.10.911.31.82.22.52.52.31.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:56 PM EDT     -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-0.90.81.522.11.81.1-0.8-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.70.91.41.92.11.81.1-1.1-1.8-2.1-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.