Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 9:54PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est this morning through late tonight...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will cross the waters tonight into early Tuesday, with a cold front poised to pass through Tuesday night. High pressure will then take hold through Wednesday night ahead of another low pressure system likely to impact the waters late Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories will may be needed for portions of Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 130244
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
944 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure developing over the southeast will continue to
move northeast, traversing our area through the overnight. High
pressure will slowly build into the region through Wednesday
night, before moving off to the northeast. Another area of low
pressure will then gather strength over the southeast and move
northward along the coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning
in a similar manner to tonight's low. High pressure should
build toward our south into the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
For the mid-evening update, light rain continues to spread
northeast across the forecast area at a fairly rapid pace. Rain
is now about as far north as trenton and should reach
northernmost nj in another couple of hours, i.E., by midnight.

There may be some sleet mixed in with the rain in areas wellsouth-
southeast winds around 5 knots, become light and variable or
north and west of phl, especially at the beginning. However,
surface temperatures are well above freezing so this should not
be a problem.

Earlier discussion:
north of the low, and ahead of the cold front, plenty of
moisture and lift will advect across the area as several short
wave vorticity impulses move across the area. Temperatures
across the higher elevations of northeast pennsylvania and
northern new jersey will be cold enough for some snow and or
sleet to occur at the onset of the precipitation. However, as
warm air continues to move northward, all precipitation is
expected to change to rain overnight. Therefore, little
accumulation is expected, generally an inch or less.

Overall QPF amounts are forecast to be between 0.75-1.00
inches, with the highest across southern new jersey, delaware,
and maryland where there is the potential for up to 1.5-2.0
inches. Rainfall rates are not expected to be significant,
however, there is the possibility if rates reach up to 1 inch
per hour, some urbanized poor drainage flooding may occur. There
is a limited amount instability forecast, and is confined to
southern maryland, southern delaware, and southern new jersey,
so we will have a slight chance of thunderstorms there.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The coastal low will continue to quickly lift northward along
the delaware and new jersey coasts through the morning hours.

There will be ongoing showers across the area for a couple of
hours around and shortly after daybreak Tuesday. However, as the
low lifts northeastward, the showers will taper off from west
to east. The exception to this is that another band of showers
may develop during the afternoon for southern maryland, southern
delaware, and southeastern new jersey as a couple of more short
waves move across the area.

With the low moving to our northeast through the day, the
pressure gradient will tighten across the area, leading to gusty
winds. Northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected across
the area.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Summary: Wednesday will feature dry weather and mostly clear
skies. Another low pressure system will move up from the south
late Thursday into Friday bringing more extensive precipitation
to the region. Confidence for wintery weather has increased
somewhat with this forecast package. Isolated rain snow showers
or sprinkles flurries will be possible over the weekend,
especially toward the northern portion of the area. Otherwise, a
cold and dry weekend looks to be in order with high pressure
centered across the southeast. High pressure and dry weather
persists into early next week.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Upper trough moves out
as westerly flow sets up across the region. A few lingering
showers may stick around across far south nj and southern
delmarva through the early evening hours. High pressure will
build in from the west with dry and mostly clear conditions
expected through Wednesday night. Wednesday will be seasonably
cold with high temperatures struggling to climb above 40
degrees. Lows Wednesday night will once again fall into the 20s
for most locations across the area.

Thursday through Friday... A cut-off upper low positioned across
the ARKLATEX region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the ohio valley by another upper trough
digging southward through Friday. This will result in another
area of low pressure developing and moving up the east coast
late Thursday through Friday. With the colder air that will be
in place in the wake of the early week system and high pressure
anchored initially across new england, wintery mix (rain mixing
with snow sleet) is looking more likely at the onset of this
event, particularly our northern-most zones and higher
elevations where precip may remain a mix of rain snow or all
snow through the majority of the event. The onset mixed precip
type may easily be experienced across even our southern most
zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster with precip
onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less time to
warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more
widespread mixed precip will result. This will also depend on
the exact track of the low, which is still uncertain. All that
said, temperatures are expected to be too warm in most area for
any significant or measurable accumulations. The poconos may
have some light accumulations, however, if temps remain cold
enough. Even after precip begins, temperatures will warm
throughout the day into the upper 30s and 40s except the poconos
where temps are more likely to remain closer to the freezing
mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of rainfall with this system
as of now. Rain will come to an end by late Friday morning with
a few showers lingering through the afternoon hours.

Friday night through Monday... High pressure will begin building
from the west through the weekend with northwesterly flow
ushering in cooler air. A few light rain snow showers or
sprinkles flurries will be possible late Saturday and Saturday
night. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal into
early next week with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and
30s for most. Sunday and Monday look quiet under mostly clear
skies.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR early, lowering to MVFR then ifr late this
evening and overnight as rain increases across the area. East
winds will shift toward the east-northeast around 5 knots late
this evening and overnight.

Tuesday... Light rain begins to taper off during the morning
hours. Conditions will improve from ifr to MVFR as rain tapers
off, and may return toVFR during the afternoon. Wind shift to
the north-northwest during the morning and into the afternoon,
and increase to 10-15 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR with high clouds
moving into the area. High confidence. Winds 10-15 knots with
gusts to 20 knots inland and 25 knots along the coast.

Thursday through Friday...VFR turning MVFR with rain showers
moving into the area from southwest to northeast. Some mixed
precipitation is possible early Thursday, though little to no
accumulation expected. Remaining rain showers move off to the
north Friday afternoon, though some lingering drizzle and
showers will be possible through the evening. Lowest
visibilities over the higher elevation of the poconos and NW nj.

Low confidence. Winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
inland, 25 knots along the coast.

Friday night through Sunday... GenerallyVFR, though some snow
showers with temporary reductions to MVFR possible over the
poconos Saturday and Sunday, though confidence is not
particularly high on the timing of these. Winds 5-10 knots with
gusts possibly reaching 15-20 knots, mostly along the coast.

Marine
Small craft advisory is in effect starting later tonight and
continuing through the day Tuesday. Winds are expected to
increase out of the east to northeast overnight ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Strong winds will continue
during the day Tuesday as the low lifts to our northeast and
gust 25-30 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Lingering SCA conditions possible with SCA ending at 6
am. A few gusts to 30 knots possible through the early afternoon
before tapering off into the evening. Fair weather expected. Seas 3-
6 feet.

Thursday through Friday... Sub-sca conditions initially with wind
gusts picking up and approaching 30 knots over the open waters
Thursday night. Seas building to 6-12 feet into the afternoon
Thursday, lingering into Friday.

Friday night through Sunday... SCA conditions possible Friday night
with gusts 25-30 knots, diminishing to sub-sca over Saturday. Seas 5-
10 feet relaxing to 4-6 feet into the day Saturday, then 2-4 feet
Saturday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Davis
near term... Amc robertson mps
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis staarmann
aviation... Davis robertson mps
marine... Davis robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi30 min ENE 4.1 G 6 44°F 49°F1020.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi30 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 47°F1020.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi30 min NE 4.1 G 7 45°F 51°F1019.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi30 min ENE 8.9 G 11 46°F 53°F1019.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi36 min 45°F 50°F1020.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi168 min NE 1.9 47°F 1023 hPa47°F
FSNM2 39 mi30 min NE 8.9 G 11 43°F 1018.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi30 min NNE 7 G 8.9 44°F 1019.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi36 min NE 6 G 8 44°F 54°F1018.9 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi30 min 47°F 47°F
44063 - Annapolis 45 mi24 min ENE 9.7 G 12 46°F 52°F1019 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi30 min 47°F 1018.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi18 min NNE 9.9 G 11 47°F 54°F1019.2 hPa (-5.2)47°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi27 minNNE 72.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F44°F100%1021 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NE7E7--NE12E86E7E64NE7N4NE6N6NW5NE3
1 day ago------------------N4N5N5N8N7N11--656NE5CalmN4CalmCalm
2 days ago------------------Calm--CalmCalmW4W7SW8--SW8SW8SW6W3CalmCalmSW5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Tue -- 01:25 AM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:32 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:34 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:57 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.92.82.62.21.81.310.80.811.21.51.71.71.51.10.80.50.40.50.81.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Tue -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:30 AM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:46 AM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:55 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.30.5-1-1.4-1.4-1-0.40.71.21.61.71.3-0.4-1.4-1.8-2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.611.62

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.