Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:07PM Friday January 18, 2019 5:23 PM EST (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 338 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain and sleet.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain or freezing rain or snow through the night.
ANZ500 338 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move across the area tonight. A strong low pressure system will affect the area over the weekend. High pressure will slowly build back in early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and a gale warning may be needed Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 182104
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
404 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue moving away from the coast tonight and
high pressure builds toward the north across southeastern canada
yielding a brief period of quiet and dry weather. An expansive area
of low pressure will approach the region from the west on Saturday
and pass over our area overnight Saturday night and early Sunday
morning bringing the first significant winter storm to the region.

Strong arctic high pressure will build quickly into the mid-atlantic
through the early part of next week. Another area of low pressure
will move across the great lakes and into southeastern canada late
Tuesday into Wednesday pushing a cold front across the region
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Still lots of low stratus across the area this afternoon but as the
tail end of a cold front moves through this evening followed by
ridging from high pressure to our north expect a period of at least
partial clearing this evening. These partly cloudy skies early will
degrade to cloudy by morning as the next system approaches. Lows
will be mainly in the 20s with upper teens across the southern
poconos and low 30s across southern portions of the delmarva.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Still expecting a significant storm to affect our region Saturday
into Sunday. Confidence is increasing our northern zones will reach
winter storm warning criteria so we have upgraded to a winter storm
warning as far south as a line from berks county pa to sussex warren
counties in nj. Farther south towards the i-95 corridor confidence
is lower so no headlines yet but we have trended the forecast a bit
colder based on arctic high to the north which should help low level
cold hang on a bit even here.

Here are the details:
timing: no major changes in timing with 12z models. Most of the
precipitation should be in the period from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning (heaviest Saturday night), with the
precipitation quickly ending behind the system's sharp cold front
Sunday.

Storm track: from a distance, the differences in the track of the
center of the low look rather minor between the models, but even
these small differences (generally within 25-50 miles of each other)
will have major implications for impacts within our area.

Of the major operational models, the NAM appears to be the furthest
se, while the GFS is the farthest north. Thinking track will lean
towards the middle of this spread, close to the i-95 corridor, but
that temps north of here will lean towards the colder models (nam)
which will have implications on p-type... More snow, sleet, and
freezing rain.

Precipitation type: this still remains the most challenging aspect
of the forecast. Even if the models were spot on with the track,
there could still be discrepancies related to cold air damming
(which may be one of the issues with the GFS being too fast to warm
up especially in the nw). Also, there will be a very sharp
temperature gradient right over the area with the i-95 corridor
right in the middle of this with temps both at the surface and aloft
expected to be close to freezing as heavy precip moves in. For these
reasons, any small changes could significantly affect p-types. If
models trend closer to the nam, then the southern poconos, lehigh
valley, and far NW nj could see all snow, otherwise, a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet is likely for these areas. It is likely
that regardless of solution, southern delaware and coastal nj will
see mostly rain, with possibly a brief period of a rain snow mix. In
between these two areas it where it gets tricky. For the in between
areas, the most likely scenario is that the precip will begin on
Saturday as snow or rain snow mix, eventually changing to heavy rain
at some point Saturday night, changing back to all snow for a brief
period before it ends. During these transitions a period of sleet
and freezing rain will be possible.

Ice and snow amounts: ice and snow amounts will be highly dependent
on the duration of the precipitation types so confidence still only
moderate at best. Trended higher on ice snow amounts for most areas
near and north of i-95. Up to a couple tenths of an inch or more of
ice look possible with with 7+ inches of snow likely over the
southern poconos and portions of NW nj.

Hydrology: system still looks to deliver 1-2+ inches of QPF with
models in overall good agreement on this. For areas near as well as
s E of i-95 that should see a change all rain, the rain could be
heavy enough to lead to urban small stream flooding issues Saturday
night into early Sunday. However lots of uncertainty here given p-
type challenges and overall threat looks to have lowered some over
portions of northern nj due to more snow ice looking likely. For
this reason, no hydro headlines.

Sunday afternoon and Sunday night: in the wake of the sharp cold
front that moves through by late Sunday morning into the afternoon
expect rapidly falling temps and strong winds. This will lead to a
rapid freezing wet slushy surfaces and could lead to power outages
for areas that see significant icing. Northwesterly winds could gust
as high as 40 mph along the coast, up to 35 mph elsewhere. This will
lead to subzero wind chills by Monday morning.

Long term Monday through Friday
Upper level trough associated with this weekend's storm will slowly
lift off to the northeast into the day Tuesday. Highs will be well
below average Monday with single digits forecast across the poconos
to low 20s across delmarva. Lows will be even colder Monday night
with below zero values possible across the poconos and NW nj.

Temperatures moderate to a degree Tuesday, though much the area will
likely stay below freezing. A short ridge builds into the area
Wednesday before a cold front moves across the region Wednesday
night. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of period, ranging
from upper 30s to the north to low 50s across the southern portions
of the area.

Some uncertainty exists as to what happens after the front moves
through Wednesday night. The ECMWF develops another strong coastal
storm system, similar to this weekend's storm, while the gfs
develops a much weaker solution as a storm moves more off to sea.

Another blast of cold air moves into the region as a deep trough
moves into the region. Went with a blended guidance approach to
accommodate this uncertainty. Will need to watch whether this system
cranks into a resemblance of this weekend's storm.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon... Residual MVFR ifr CIGS and variable
vfr MVFR vsbys will continue, with only gradual improvement to
mainlyVFR by sunset. Winds light variable becoming light west to
northwest. Very low confidence with CIGS vsbys; moderate confidence
with winds.

Tonight... MainlyVFR expected this evening. However, winds will
slacken again overnight, and there is at least some chance of patchy
fog. Confidence is too low for TAF mention at this point, but will
continue to monitor. Low confidence.

Saturday...VFR conditions in the morning with winds becoming
easterly or northeasterly around or under 10 kts. However,
conditions will deteriorate rapidly during the afternoon with
precipitation moving in late from west to east. Precip will likely
be snow initially at the philly terminals northwestward, but may
begin to mix with sleet, freezing rain, and rain by evening. Miv acy
may see mostly rain. Moderate confidence with overall evolution, but
low confidence with timing and precipitation types.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday... A long duration of restrictions,
mainly ifr or worse, through most of Sunday. A plethora of
precipitation types is possible, with mainly snow, sleet, and
freezing rain at rdg abe; a mixture possible at the philly
terminals, though this period may be mainly rain; virtually all rain
at miv acy. As a cold front moves through on Sunday, precipitation
may quickly transition to snow before tapering off.VFR conditions
will rapidly move in by Sunday evening. Light northeast or east
winds Saturday night becoming strong gusty northwest Sunday
afternoon and night. Low confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected.

Northwesterly winds gusting to 25 to 35 kts on Monday diminishing to
5 to 15 kts on Tuesday. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible with a
chance of rain or snow. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kts, with stronger
gusts possible, especially near the coast. Low confidence.

Marine
Tonight... A continuation of fair weather. NW winds mostly around 10
knots early tonight will veer around to NE by dawn Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night... SCA conditions, with southerly or
southeasterly winds gusting to 25 kt are likely to develop by
Saturday evening and continue overnight. Also expect seas over the
ocean waters to build to 6-9 feet by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday... A cold front on Sunday will bring an abrupt
shift to northwesterly winds. With this wind shift, gale force gusts
are expected and this could continue into Monday. Freezing spray is
also likely.

Monday night... Gale force winds gusts will continue through the
day into the late evening hours before diminishing to sca
criteria through the overnight. Seas will also gradually
diminish through the overnight.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Sub SCA expected during the day with
marginal SCA criteria winds and seas ramping up overnight.

Wednesday... Marginal SCA winds and seas are expected to persist
through the day before gradually diminishing into the evening hours.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides will be high over the weekend due to the full
moon. It will take a positive tidal departures of +0.7 to +0.9 to
begin causing minor flooding.

An onshore flow is expected to develop on Saturday, causing tidal
departures to increase at that time. While the wind is anticipated
to become southerly on Saturday night, lowering atmospheric pressure
will help to keep water levels from decreasing quickly. As a result,
there will likely be widespread minor coastal flooding with Sunday
morning's high tide along the oceanfront and along parts of delaware
bay. Spotty moderate flooding is possible.

It should be a one tide cycle event. Water levels are expected to
decrease sufficiently by Sunday evening's high tide to prevent
another round of coastal flooding.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning from 1 pm Saturday to 1 pm est Sunday for
paz054-055-060>062.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for paz103-105.

Nj... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for njz009-010.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday for
njz001-007-008.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning from noon to 6 pm est Sunday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Davis
aviation... Cms
marine... Fitzsimmons staarmann
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi35 min S 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 38°F1019.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi35 min W 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 35°F1019.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi35 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 38°F 40°F1020 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi35 min W 7 G 8 38°F 40°F1019.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi113 min WNW 4.1 40°F 1019 hPa35°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi41 min 38°F 39°F1018.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi35 min ESE 7 G 8 36°F 1019.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi41 min S 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 38°F1019.3 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi35 min 38°F 38°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi35 min 39°F 1019.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi23 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 37°F 38°F1020.7 hPa (+1.3)36°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi35 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F33°F93%1020.3 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi32 minWNW 56.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze36°F30°F82%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5NE8E8------------------NE5N4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW4Calm
1 day agoW7W7W6------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmNE8NE8--NE8SE8SE7S7S5
2 days agoN4CalmCalm------------------W3SW3S4S3CalmCalmW5SW5SW6W7W9W7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:27 PM EST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:35 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.100.20.50.8110.80.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.5-00.71.422.32.32.11.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:01 AM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:01 AM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM EST     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:50 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 PM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:26 PM EST     -0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:41 PM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.111.41.71.91.70.8-1.3-1.9-2.2-2.3-2.2-1.8-1.20.51.522.221.50.8-0.9-1.4-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.