Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:46 PM EST (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 3:20PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 632 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of snow this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 632 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will move out to sea tonight. High pressure will return on Saturday before weak low pressure possibly impacts the waters early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 152312
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
612 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Surface low pressure, off the delmarva, will track northeast
into the open atlantic this evening. High pressure, centered
over the southeastern united states, will nose into the region
early on Saturday. This will be short-lived as a cold front,
coming in from the north, will move into or through the area on
Saturday night and Sunday. This front will then stall before
lifting northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday. A
cold front will progress through the region around the middle of
next week. Another system may affect the area near the close of
next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Our upper level jet enhanced light snow event was gradually
coming to an end early this evening. The back edge of the
accumulating snow was along the interstate 95 corridor around
6:00 pm. It should be off the coast in the 7:00 to 8:00 pm time
frame.

Snowfall accumulations in the 1 to 3 inch range were common,
except in the poconos and far northern new jersey and in parts
of northeastern maryland and central and southern delaware where
totals were less than an inch.

Gradual clearing is anticipated for tonight as the system moves
farther off the coast.

A west wind should increase to 5 to 10 mph. Minimum
temperatures are forecast to favor the teens in much of eastern
pennsylvania and northern new jersey, and the lower and middle
20s in southern new jersey and on the upper delmarva.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Shortwave energy rotating around the based of the large scale
trough is forecast to move across the great lakes and northeast
states on Saturday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure
will pass to our north but a northwest flow behind this
disturbance will help steer a cold front southward into the i-80
corridor by the late afternoon.

Even with the deepest, more organized synoptic lift staying to
our north, models show a ribbon of low-level
convergence frontogenetical lift near the front that could
support some snow shower activity across the i-80 and i-78
corridor during the mid to late afternoon. We are currently only
expecting minor accumulations. Elsewhere, expect clouds to
increase as the day progresses.

Forecast high temperatures range from the lower 30s across the
i-80 corridor to the lower 40s in DELMARVA and coastal nj.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Overview... The period starts with a deepening surface low off
delmarva. This low will track to the northeast overnight into
the open atlantic. Surface high pressure, centered across the
deep south, will push up into the mid-atlantic by daybreak
Saturday. This high won't hang around long. A cold front, coming
in from the north, will move into or through the forecast area
Saturday night into Sunday. This front will back up as a warm
front Sunday night into Monday. Another cold front will push
through the region in the Tuesday Wednesday timeframe. Surface
high pressure is expected on Thursday. This will elide to a warm
front later on Thursday into Friday and a cold front very late
in the period. Both of these fronts are associated with low
pressure moving across the eastern great lakes.

Temperatures... For reference, normals for kphl are around 30
and in the middle 40s. Sunday will be slightly below normal.

Monday and Tuesday will be above normal with some mid-50s
possible across portions of the coastal plain. Wednesday looks
to be about normal with Thursday slightly below. Friday will
rebound once again with above normal temperatures. Once again,
portions of the coastal plain could see temperatures top out in
the middle 50s.

Precipitation... Small pops have been inserted late Sunday and
maintained into Sunday night. This associated with the warm
front in the vicinity. Small pops will continue into Monday and
through Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday will be pop free
behind the mid-week cold front. Some chance pops will be
inserted into the grids on Friday.

Winds... Fairly benign through the period. Moist noticeable
winds will be right ahead and behind the cold front Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Impacts... While the forecast will see a roller coaster week
with temperatures and multiple chances of precipitation, none
are expected to create widespread hazardous weather at this
time.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This evening... Improving toVFR with snow ending. Light and
variable wind.

Overnight...VFR. Clearing. West wind 4 to 8 knots.

Saturday...VFR. Mostly clear in the morning, then increasing
clouds. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night... GenerallyVFR with light and variable winds.

Medium confidence.

Sunday... GenerallyVFR. Light northeast winds to start the day
and southeast to finish. Increasing clouds and a small chance of
precipitation later in the day. Medium confidence.

Sunday night and Monday... GenerallyVFR, though brief sub-vfr
conditions are possible with light rain or snow, especially
north of phl. Light winds generally transitioning from southeast
to southwest during the period. Low confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday: sub-vfr conditions possible, with
scattered showers during the period, especially on Tuesday.

Winds primarily southwest at 5 to 15 kts. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR. Decreasing clouds
and showers on Tuesday night. No precipitation expected on
Wednesday. Winds west or northwest 10 to 20 mph. Medium
confidence.

Marine
N-nw winds expected increase this evening and become nwly as
low pressure intensifies while tracking to our east. Opted for a
sca instead of a glw for tonight and Saturday with winds
generally in the 25-30 kt range. However, a brief ramp up in
winds are expected late tonight when pressure rises behind the
offshore low are greatest. An isolated gust to near gale force
at our offshore buoys is certainly a possibility.

Outlook...

Saturday night: residual advisory-level northwest winds in the
evening will diminish overnight. Gale force gusts during the
evening can't be ruled out. Seas below criteria.

Sunday and Sunday night: sub small craft advisory conditions.

No headlines anticipated. There may be some light rain in the
afternoon and overnight with potential for some visibility
restrictions.

Monday and Monday night: sub small craft advisory conditions.

No headlines anticipated. Scattered showers, at times, could
create visibility restrictions.

Tuesday: southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels by
afternoon with seas also building. A chance of showers and
visibility restrictions.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions
expected due to northwest winds behind the front and building
seas.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for paz070-
071.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz102-
104-106.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
njz012>027.

De... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
dez001>003.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for mdz008-
012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 1 am est
Sunday for anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Saturday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Iovino
short term... Klein
long term... Kruzdlo
aviation... Iovino kruzdlo
marine... Klein kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 24°F 39°F1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi47 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 25°F 37°F1013.8 hPa (+0.0)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi47 min 25°F 41°F1013.3 hPa (-0.3)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi47 min Calm G 1 26°F 39°F1014.1 hPa (+0.0)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi47 min N 11 G 14 25°F 43°F1013.3 hPa (+0.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi47 min 25°F 43°F1013.4 hPa (-0.3)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi137 min NW 2.9 25°F 1013 hPa25°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 27°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
FSNM2 39 mi47 min Calm G 2.9 26°F 1013.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 27°F 46°F1013.8 hPa (-0.0)
CPVM2 42 mi47 min 28°F 25°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi47 min 28°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 28°F 43°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi1.8 hrsN 00.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist23°F21°F93%1014.2 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi56 minN 04.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F24°F96%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3N6N4--------------------------CalmCalm--CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW11SW7CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSW5W5W5W8W8NW10
G19
NW8NW7NW8NW9CalmNW8CalmNW4
2 days agoNW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:11 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:21 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:27 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.20.30.611.31.51.51.20.70.3-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.10.411.62.12.32.32.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:26 AM EST     2.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     -0.04 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:38 AM EST     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:35 PM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:10 PM EST     2.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:49 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:07 PM EST     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.90.71.6221.60.7-1.2-1.8-2.1-2.2-2-1.7-1.111.92.22.11.71.2-0.5-1.3-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.