Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:18PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:31PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1037 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming W 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the waters today and tonight before shifting offshore on Sunday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then cross the waters Monday. This will be followed by high pressure for the remainder of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231315
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
915 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure will gradually work its way across the canadian
maritimes today and tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
into the ohio valley today then just to our south tonight and
Sunday. A cold front will settle southeastward across our area late
Sunday night and Monday while a weak area of low pressure tracks
along it. High pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday before
slowly shifting eastward later Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Increased wind gusts just a bit in the far north to account for
observations in that area showing a peak gust of 58 mph at high
point nj (1800 feet asl) and certainly not respresentative of
the entire area. Vsbl satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving
out with the departing low, and is represented very well by the
current forecast. Temperatures also look on track, so no major
changes to the current forecast package.

Previous near term discussion below... .

Strong low pressure will drift to the northeast across canada's
maritime provinces and the gulf of saint lawrence today.

Meanwhile, high pressure will build from the western great lakes
and the ohio river valley toward the carolinas. The tight
pressure gradient between the two features will maintain a
strong west northwest wind in our region. Sustained wind speeds
should range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 or 40 mph.

Wind speeds are forecast to begin slowly diminishing during the
course of the afternoon.

Clouds are expected to linger through about mid morning, especially
over parts of eastern pennsylvania and new jersey. Very dry air will
build into our region for this afternoon, with a clear sky
anticipated at that time.

Maximum temperatures are expected to range from the lower 40s on the
pocono plateau to the middle 50s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
The strong low will move farther away to our northeast tonight as
high pressure settles in the carolinas and virginia. We are
anticipating a clear sky. The west northwest wind is forecast to
decrease to less than 10 mph early this evening with the wind
becoming light and variable overnight.

The ideal radiating conditions should allow temperatures to fall
into the 20s in much of our region. Readings may not drop below the
lower 30s in urban locations and in areas near the coast and
bays.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Summary... Mainly some rain later Sunday night and Monday with a cold
front and wave of weak low pressure; cooler Tuesday; warming takes
place Wednesday through Friday.

Synoptic overview... A large upper-level trough amplifies across new
england later Sunday and Monday with a cold front pressing
southeastward across our region. A trough remains in the east
through Tuesday, then the flow becomes more zonal for a time. An
upper-level trough amplifies into the plains toward late next week,
building a ridge to the east.

For Sunday and Monday... Surface high pressure is forecast to be
shifting east of the carolinas Sunday. An upper-level trough
amplifies across eastern canada and eventually into the northeast,
with a cold front arriving in our area Sunday night and Monday
morning. There looks to be limited moisture with the cold front,
however some showers should occur as it arrives. A short wave
embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft tracks from the midwest
Sunday to the mid-atlantic coast by late Monday. This eventually
looks to get absorbed with the incoming amplifying trough, however a
weak surface low associated with it tracks along the aforementioned
surface cold front as it settles southeastward.

While the guidance does vary some with how much shower activity
accompanies the front, the bulk of the guidance focuses more
precipitation with the wave of low pressure. The QPF looks to be on
the lighter side as the system should be moving right along. The
majority of this is anticipated to be rain, however if enough
cooling arrives across the north some snow could mix in. Overall
though it looks like the colder air arrives after the majority of
the precipitation ends. In addition, much drier air looks to move in
a bit faster from south to north during Monday and this should also
help to keep the more organized precipitation becoming more focused
across the southern areas with time. Prior to the arrival of the
cold front, a milder flow will occur Sunday allowing temperatures
away from the coast to get well into the 50s to near 60 degrees,
then cooling occurs during Monday and especially Monday night when
it turns colder.

For Tuesday... As an upper-level trough amplifies across the east,
some ridging across the midwest will drive an expansive high
pressure system eastward into our area during Tuesday. This should
drive much drier air southward despite a northeast low-level flow.

As a result, any precipitation lingering across the DELMARVA early
should rapidly end as low pressure moves out to sea. Our sensible
weather is then dominated by the aformentioned surface high building
over and to our north and northeast through Tuesday night, and this
will keep a chilly airmass in place.

For Wednesday through Friday... Looks like a sliver of tranquil
weather for our area as surface high pressure becomes entrenched
across our area and extends to the northeast. This is between an
eventual trough that ejects out into the plains toward the end of
the week, and low pressure east of the southeast coast. The trough
out west eventually will send low pressure northeastward from the
southern plains, however that will probably not approach until later
Friday night. In the meantime, a warming trend is expected to take
place after a chilly to cold start. The warming however may be
slowed closer to the coast given the surface winds may retain an
onshore component longer. For now, kept some rather low pops
especially for the western areas by late Friday.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Decreasing clouds this morning, clear this afternoon.

West northwest wind 16 to 22 knots with gusts of 28 to 36 knots.

Tonight...VFR under a clear sky. West northwest wind around 8 to 12
knots becoming variable 6 knots or less.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR as clouds increase and lower, especially at night. Some
showers possible toward daybreak Monday. West-southwest winds 10
knots or less.

Monday...VFR ceilings, which may briefly lower to MVFR with some
rain especially from the phl area southward. West-northwest winds
becoming northerly around 10 knots.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. Northeast winds around 10 knots,
becoming east to southeast less than 10 knots by later
Wednesday.

Marine
A west northwest wind at 20 to 30 knots is forecast to continue for
much of the day. Frequent gusts in the 30 to 40 knot range are
expected. Wind speeds will likely begin to decrease slowly this
afternoon. We will keep the gale warning in place until 6:00 pm for
the coastal waters of new jersey and delaware and for delaware bay.

The west northwest wind will continue to diminish tonight, with
conditions anticipated to fall below small craft advisory levels
shortly after midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday... The conditions are anticipated to be below small
craft advisory, however northeast winds increase later Monday night
and may gust to around 25 knots.

Tuesday... Small craft advisory conditions probable for a time,
especially for the atlantic coastal waters where seas will be around
5 feet.

Wednesday... The winds are anticipated to be below small craft
advisory criteria, however seas may linger around 5 feet especially
in the southern atlantic coastal waters.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt this evening for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino miketta
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gorse iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi41 min 44°F 46°F1017.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi35 min 43°F 42°F1017 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi41 min 1016.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi35 min 43°F 46°F1018.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi35 min 42°F 45°F1016.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi143 min W 8.9 42°F 1016 hPa24°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi35 min 44°F 47°F1015.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi35 min 42°F 1018.8 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi41 min 42°F 1018.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi41 min 43°F 46°F1018.8 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi35 min 45°F 17°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi35 min 46°F 1019.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi53 min W 16 G 21 42°F 44°F1020.3 hPa (+2.9)22°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi62 minWNW 19 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy45°F18°F34%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------NW18
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1 day ago------------------NE8NE10NE10NE12CalmNE5E3N5NE10E10--NE14NE12
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2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S10S10SE10SE10--SE10NE9E12E12

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:28 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.31.81.20.70.2-00.10.51.11.82.42.82.82.41.81.10.50.1-0.100.411.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Sat -- 12:11 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     2.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:07 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-1.3-2-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.40.31.62.22.42.11.60.6-1.3-1.8-2-1.8-1.4-0.71.21.82.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.