Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:46PM Saturday November 18, 2017 10:46 AM EST (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 951 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except flat near the mouth of the susquehanna. A chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 951 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move across the waters late tonight into early Sunday morning and high pressure will build to our south later Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181507
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1007 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the east coast this morning while
an area of low pressure tracks across the midwest. The low will
move northeastward and strengthen across the great lakes region
later today and tonight. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the mid-atlantic region early Sunday morning while the
low progresses through the saint lawrence valley on Sunday. High
pressure will build to our south Monday into Tuesday, before a
cold front moves across the area Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday night and
Thursday. The high weakens to our south by Friday while another
area of low pressure approaches.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
An area of low pressure will continue to move out of the ohio
valley today and into the eastern great lakes late this
afternoon into this evening, while a large trough moves through
the great lakes and mississippit valley through the day. Our
area will remain under a west to southwest flow aloft, with
several short wave vorticity impulses forecast to move across
the area.

The first round of showers associated with the first of several
short wave vorticity impulses is moving through central
pennsylvania this morning and approaching our western counties.

Latest near term guidance continues to indicate the showers will
move through eastern pennsylvania through the late morning and
into the early afternoon hours, then across central and
northern new jersey later this morning and into this afternoon.

Portions of delaware and maryland, as well as southern new
jersey may also get some showers through the day, but the most
likely areas are along and north of the i-95 corridor. There are
some higher reflectivities across central pennsylvania, but
these area at 5,000 feet or higher, which would indicate some
frozen precipitation aloft. As the showers move across the area,
temperatures are expected to be above freezing, so any frozen
precipition is expected to melt to a cold rain.

Additional showers are expected through the afternoon as
the additional short wave vorticity impulses move across the
area.

Winds later this afternoon could become gusty around 15-20 mph
at times as some mixing may occur as tempertures warm a little
during the day and tap into the stronger winds aloft. However,
the stronger winds will come overnigt into Sunday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
The surface low in the great lakes region early this evening will
continue deepening and moving northeastward through the st. Lawrence
valley as a strong cold front approaches the eastern seaboard late
tonight. A synoptically-induced low-level jet will be screaming
along and just downstream of the cold front. With substantial low-
level isentropic lift combined with differential cyclonic vorticity
advection downstream of the main vort max, deep large-scale ascent
will accompany the front, allowing for a band of widespread showers
to develop. General quarter to half inch QPF is expected in the
northern part of the area (where lift will be stronger), but most
everyone should see at least some precip as the front
approaches moves through the area. Water loading will likely aid in
downward transport of the stronger winds aloft, so strong wind gusts
may occur in proximity to showers. There are some indications of
shallow thin instability in close proximity to the front, so a
rumble of thunder is not impossible. However, the more likely threat
is contributions to surface wind gust potential via convectively
induced downdrafts.

The timing of the frontal band(s) of showers looks to be after
midnight, with potential for a relatively dry period earlier in the
evening.

As the front races eastward, winds will become westerly and
northwesterly and rapidly increase as cold air advection commences
and strong mixing occurs. The wind threat may be enhanced with the
showers but will continue well after the front has passed (see
forecast discussion for Sunday below).

Temperatures are likely to stay elevated tonight in advance of the
front, with little or no decrease in temperatures through the
evening early overnight hours. After frontal passage, the
temperature plunge begins. Notably, precipitation should be all rain
for the southern poconos through 6 am Sunday, as temperatures should
be just starting to make the drop by this point.

Long term Sunday through Friday
The period starts out with a strong cold frontal passage early
Sunday morning. A brisk westerly wind behind the front can be
expected on Sunday. The combination of CAA and daytime heating will
lead to steepening boundary-layer lapse rate and favorable mixing
profiles shortly after sunrise. Bufkit momentum transfer from
nam GFS profiles favor frequent wind gusts of at least 40 mph thru
about mid afternoon. It appears that gusts across the area will be
on the cusp of a wind advisory (greater than 45 mph), especially
from about mid morning thru midday, if the strongest CAA arrives in
concert with the greatest pressure rises (cold conveyor belt) low-
level jet. The models have trended 1-2 mb weaker with the surface
low (982-984 mb) as it passes to our north during the morning, yield
a wind advisory setup that is marginal enough to hold off at this
time. Temperatures are forecast to fall during the morning, then
struggle to rise much during the afternoon as CAA offsets surface
heating.

There is a potential for lake-effect snow streamers to reach the
higher elevations of northeastern pa (poconos). It now appears that
the bulk of these snow showers should hold off until after sunrise
Sunday evening. Although snowfall accumulations are expected to be
minor, a brief snow squall could potentially lead to locally
hazardous travel in the poconos if convection can be sustained this
far downstream (low confidence at this point).

W-nw winds will remain breezy Sunday night with low pressure
continuing to strengthen over southeastern canada and high pressure
building to our southwest. A cold night is in store with continued
caa over the mid atlantic but the winds should keep the boundary
layer well mixed, preventing temperatures from dropping too much
overnight. Lows range from the mid 20s in the poconos to mid 30s in
the cities and along the coast.

High pressure builds across the southeast u.S. Monday. Cool
temperatures (10 degrees below normal) and dry weather can be
expected to start the work week. High pressure moves offshore on
Tuesday. Southerly return flow around the high will yield a
moderating trend with temperatures returning to near normal by
Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will likely move thru the area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The previous forecast was blended with wpc
guidance and low chances for rain was introduced to the forecast as
a result. Models generally show an area of low pressure developing
along the front which would enhance rainfall. However, with large
spread in the models regarding the location and timing of secondary
low development, confidence in the forecast is lower than normal for
the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period.

Cool and dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and Friday with
high pressure build in. Forecast high generally range between 40-45
degrees on Thursday and 45-50 degrees Friday.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Conditions should remainVFR this morning with showers
moving in from the west around or after 16z. CIGS may stayVFR
through much of the day, despite the occasional rounds of
showers. However, brief sub-vfr conditions may occur in
proximity to any rainfall, especially abe and rdg where a tempo
for MVFR conditions has been updated. It is possible kacy kmiv
see little or no rainfall today. Winds should be generally
southerly around 10 kts, with potential for gusts up to 20 kts,
especially at kmiv kacy. Confidence in CIGS vsbys is average
with winds well above average.

Tonight... Conditions should gradually deteriorate at all sites to
sub-vfr (primarily cigs), with a band of showers likely to move
through between 06z and 12z. Gusty erratic winds and convective
turbulence may occur in proximity to showers. Outside of
showers, southwest winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts are
possible, with a quick switch to west or northwest after cold
frontal passage late tonight or early Sunday morning. Winds
will likely become stronger quickly after the front passes, with
gusts 30 to 40 kts likely. Confidence in overall evolution is
above average, but in timing of CIGS wind switch is below
average.

Outlook...

Sunday... CIGS quickly rise toVFR in most areas Sunday morning
although stratocu behind a cold front could keep high-end MVFR
cigs lingering into the late morning in a few spots. Breezy w
winds 15-20 kt will gust to around 35 kt (possibly higher gusts
to near 40 kt). Moderate confidence on CIGS in the morning; high
confidence otherwise.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. W-nw winds gusting 15 to 25
kt. High confidence.

Monday night...VFR and light winds. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. W-sw winds gust 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Potential for rain to move in late
Tuesday night-Wednesday morning (greatest chance is along the
coast). Sub-vfr CIGS possible. Low confidence.

Marine
Gale warning has been issued for delaware bay starting at 1 am
Sunday (with small craft advisory conditions likely beginning
today), and a gale warning remains in effect for the atlantic waters
beginning at 1 pm today. Strong south to southwest winds will begin
rapidly this afternoon, with occasional gusts to gale force likely
over the atlantic waters. As a cold front approaches late tonight,
strong gusts may occur in proximity to showers before a switch to
west northwest winds late tonight (or early Sunday), with frequent
gale-force gusts likely thereafter for the entire marine area. Seas
in the atlantic should rapidly build to 5-8 feet by this evening and
potentially higher overnight.

Showers are also possible today, especially for delaware bay and the
new jersey coastal waters.

Outlook...

Sunday night... Gale warning was extended into Sunday night for
the waters. There may be a brief lull in the winds early Sunday
evening before restrengthening a bit late in the evening and or
overnight as the low deepens well to our north and the pressure
gradient tightens overhead.

Monday through Tuesday night... SCA will be needed, initially for
winds and seas on Monday, just for seas Monday night, then for
winds and seas on Tuesday.

Wednesday... Winds and seas likely to drop below SCA criteria.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a potential for blow out tides on Sunday, especially
in the delaware bay and the tidal portion of the delaware river,
where strong w-nw winds will effectively drain water out of the
bay. The low tide Sunday afternoon evening seems to be the most
susceptible for low water concerns that could impact navigation
in the area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 5 am est Monday for
anz450>455.

Gale warning from 1 am Sunday to 5 am est Monday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Cms robertson
short term... Cms
long term... Klein
aviation... Cms klein robertson
marine... Cms klein
tides coastal flooding... Klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi76 min S 8 49°F 1014 hPa38°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi1.8 hrsS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F38°F79%1013.2 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi55 minS 810.00 miFair46°F37°F73%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S7S5
1 day ago--------NW10
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2 days agoE8E7E6NE4E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW5W5--

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Sat -- 04:03 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.61.10.70.50.611.41.821.91.61.10.60.2-00.10.411.72.32.72.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:32 PM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 PM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.6-1.4-10.71.6221.50.6-1.3-1.9-2.2-2.2-2-1.6-0.91.222.32.11.71.1-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.