Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday May 23, 2019 11:25 AM EDT (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:43PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1035 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will cross the waters by midday and a cold front will pass over the waters tonight. High pressure will gradually build overhead Friday through Friday night and a warm front will approach the waters Saturday. A weak cold front will move in from the north Sunday, but it will likely stall out nearby through Monday. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231336
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
936 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to move offshore today while low
pressure moves across southern canada. A cold front attached to this
low will cross our area this evening and early tonight. High
pressure will follow for Friday and Saturday. Another low and its
associated fronts will affect our weather Saturday night and Sunday.

After that, high pressure will build in for the beginning of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Changes for the 930 am update: no significant changes for this
update. The continuing morning convection is more persistent
than previously forecast. In most cases, this could limit the
threat for severe storms with rounds of storms later in the day.

However, with the warm front currently lifting through the
region, and given how dynamic this system is, I don't think that
is the case today. Therefore, I hesitate to make any significant
changes at this time.

Summary
a fairly active day will be in store for the area as the northern
periphery of the eastern us ridge flattens in response to a potent
shortwave lifting out of the upper midwest. At the surface the
primary low will pass to our north this afternoon, with an attendant
trough digging into area ahead of the system's cold front. In the
warm sector ahead of this trough deep southwesterly flow will
increase through the day advecting in low-lvl moisture with sfc.

Dewpoints climbing into the 60s by later this afternoon across most
of the area (mid-upper 60s southwestern parts of the forecast area).

This setup will result in a few waves of precipitation, with the
storm intensity generally increasing through the day.

Details
first, we will continue to see showers and the occasional
thunderstorm move in from the west through mid day in
association with isentropic upglide ahead of the sfc. Warm
front. Surface dewpoint depressions are generally > 10 degrees
at the moment so expect initial precipitation will not be
particularly heavy. Best chance for any thunder will be northern
portions of the area, closer to a shortwave evident on WV and
where elevated instability is highest.

The second potential round of storms is the MCS currently over the
upper midwest eastern great plains. This system may maintain itself
through the morning and eventually reach our area around mid-
afternoon. What state this convection will be in when it finally
approaches us is up for debate as there is poor agreement and
even run to run consistency between high resolution models as to
if this line will keep its strength through the day. Tend to
think there may be some weakening of the line given that the
thermodynamic environment at this time over the mid- atlantic
will be characterized by limited surface- based
instability meager lapse rates. That being said given some
convectively enhanced mid-lvl vorticity modeled over the line,
it may have enough upper support to withstand the worsening
thermodynamic environment. Consequently this bears some watching
although the main threat would likely be more heavy rain and
maybe hail given that lcls will be. Can't rule out heavier rain
and a hail wind threat if these storms materialize but lcls
should be high enough at this point to limit any tornado threat.

Outside of storms expect southwesterly winds with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s (outside of poconos and immediate coast). Although
clouds will be around for much of the day, some breaks in the
afternoon are possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
The final and potentially strongest round of storms may occur late
this afternoon into this evening ahead of the cold front. The best
severe parameter space will exist at this time over SE pa, ne
delmarva, and SW nj. This will be characterized by MLCAPE in the
1000-1500 j kg range, bulk shear around 50 kts (with 0-1 SRH values
increasing to 250-350 m2s2, and lcls lowering to < 1000m. There will
also be some enhanced lift as the upper jet noses southward.

Consequently all severe hazards would be possible with any storms
that form in this time period. One caveat (as exemplified by the 06z
hrrr run) is that storm coverage development in this period could be
hindered by stability following the earlier convective line (if it
maintains itself). Thus the severe weather threat in the late
afternoon early evening will become clearer as the actual
evolution propagation of that MCS is observed.

The cold front will push through sometime overnight (after
midnight), with drying behind the front in northwesterly flow ending
any lingering convection (although any storms today should move
fairly brisking eastward).

Long term Friday through Wednesday
A rather active pattern in the extended with high pressure remaining
across the south while low pressure systems move by to the north
during the weekend and into next week. Only made some minor
adjustments to the pops wx since the timing of the various
fronts short waves can be problematic in patterns like this.

Saturday looks mostly dry, then more showers tstms Sat night and
Sunday. More high pressure will be around for Monday and then the
next system may move north of the area Tue wed. Precipitation during
the period will be mostly of the showery TSTM variety, so mostly
scattered but locally heavy.

Temperatures will be near normal Fri sat, but then the high to the
south will begin to pump some above normal temperatures for Sun mon.

This high will remain close enough to bring more summer-like warmth
this upcoming week. High temperatures in many periods were raised
somewhat, but still below what some of the wpc numbers. We could
make a run at 90 degrees either both Sun and wed.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Scattered showers a perhaps a TSTM this morning as a warm
front passes through. After a break, withVFR conditions mostly,
more showers and tstms expected this afternoon. Timing advertised in
the previous tafs looks good, so few changes were made with them at
06z. The storms will lower CIGS vsbys to MVFR or lower for a period
mostly late afternoon across the terminals. SW winds 5 to 15 knots
with some g20 knots possible.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will be ending early
tonight with MVFR CIGS for awhile before improvement late tonight.

Ifr lifr conditions are possible at any terminals with a tstm, but
little confid in this with regards to timing attm. Winds will shift
from mostly SW to W or NW late tonight. Winds will become gusty
towards dawn Friday.

Outlook...

Friday thru Saturday... MostlyVFR.

Sat night thru Sun night... Scattered showers tstms with lower
cigs vsbys possible.

Monday... MostlyVFR.

Marine
A small craft advisory will be in place for atlantic waters north of
cape may from noon today until 7 am Friday morning, while a
small craft advisory is in effect for the southern atlantic
waters from 4pm to 7am Friday. Conditions will generally be
borderline as southerly winds increase through the afternoon
likely reaching around 25 kts by mid afternoon into this
evening. Seas will likely hover in the 4-5 ft range over the
atlantic waters by mid-afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
gusty erratic winds will be possible this afternoon into this
evening.

Sca conditions are expected to taper off tonight as winds shift to
westerly behind the cold front.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca conditions expected for Friday and through the
holiday weekend. There will be a few tstms Sat night thru sun
night. Locally higher winds and seas possible with the tstms.

Rip currents...

there will be a moderate risk of rip currents today in building
seas and southerly flow

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online and repairs have been completed.

However, it will be in a test phase through today to ensure it
is stable.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am edt
Friday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Carr johnson
short term... Carr
long term... O'hara
aviation... Carr o'hara
marine... Carr o'hara
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi55 min Calm G 2.9 70°F 69°F1021.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi55 min SSE 5.1 G 9.9 67°F 63°F1021.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi55 min 1020.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi67 min SSW 8 G 12 69°F 66°F1021.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi55 min SSE 13 G 15 66°F 67°F1021.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi55 min 66°F 63°F1020.6 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi55 min SSE 1.9 G 6 70°F 1020.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi55 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 68°F 69°F1020.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi55 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1020.6 hPa
CPVM2 43 mi55 min 67°F 64°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi49 min SW 12 G 12 67°F 66°F1020.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi55 min 76°F 1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi40 minSW 89.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F57°F64%1021.3 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi34 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast67°F55°F66%1021.3 hPa

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Last 24hr5E3SE3S3SW5SW8SW6SW5SW4------------------CalmCalmCalmS13S15SW8
1 day agoNW7N9NW12N8NW105N64NW3------------------CalmCalmCalmNE5CalmE7
2 days agoSW8SW9SW11SW9SW8W9W7W44------------------NW6NW46N9N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
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Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.12.221.61.20.90.80.91.21.72.22.83.13.33.12.82.31.81.41.10.911.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Thu -- 12:52 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:26 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:30 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.3-0.5-1.4-1.9-2.1-2.1-1.9-1.4-0.71.11.82.22.21.81.30.2-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.70.61.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.