Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Havre de Grace, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:31 PM EDT (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:24PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the area today, then move offshore Friday and remain positioned there through the weekend. Low pressure may approach the area from the south early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havre de Grace city, MD
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location: 39.54, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 241831
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
231 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
Surface high pressure across the mid-atlantic today will move
offshore on Friday. Weak disturbances will cross the area over
the weekend into early next week, before a potential low
pressure system approaches later in the week.

Near term through tonight
Quiet weather is expected through tonight. Surface high pressure
overhead this afternoon will slide offshore by Friday morning.

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected, with some
patchy fog possible in the favored valleys. Lows will be mainly
in the 50s, except 60s in the urban centers and along the
chesapeake and tidal potomac river.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Southerly return flow will develop on Friday as the surface high
moves into the western atlantic and upper level ridging builds
overhead. This will help to usher in increasing warmth and
moisture. Much of the area should still see mostly sunny skies
and dry weather, however across the higher terrain of the
potomac highlands, and possibly into the shenandoah valley late,
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop in the
afternoon evening. Highs will reach the 80s area-wide.

Any showers thunderstorms should largely dissipate Friday night,
although a shower or two remains possible across the potomac
highlands into western maryland. Lows will be considerably
milder given increasing low level moisture, with lows in the 60s
to locally near 70f.

Moisture increases further on Saturday with persistent southwest
flow, and precipitable water values may exceed 1.75". Highs will
reach into the mid 80s, and that combined with dew points in the
mid upper 60s will lead to the development of moderate
instability. A weak disturbance is progged to be nearby the
region as well. Thus, showers and thunderstorms become
increasingly likely by the afternoon and evening. Shear values
are relatively low, so while organized severe activity is not
anticipated, a stronger storm or two is possible. In addition,
given very high precipitable water values, and wet antecedent
conditions, some isolated incidents of flooding are also
possible.

Shower thunderstorm activity should wane with the loss of
daytime heating Saturday night. A muggy night is forecast with
lows in the 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
On Sunday, high pressure will be situated off the eastern
seaboard near bermuda. A south to southwesterly flow will be in
place over the region. The southerly flow will lead to the
inflow of tropical moisture into the region. Models are showing
pwat values above 1.5", possibly reaching 2.0". A stationary
front is expected to be located somewhere to our north in pa and
new york. The influx of high precipitable water values along
with the boundary to the north will lead to the formation of
disorganized convection throughout the region. Thunderstorms and
heavy showers will be possible throughout the region. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Monday into Tuesday, a southerly flow is expected to continue
leading to further transport of tropical moisture into the region
from the gulf of mexico. Pwat values may be slightly lower on
Monday and Tuesday, with the boundary to the north possibly
moving back southward as a backdoor front before a cold front
from the west moves through the our northern parts of our
county warning area. These boundaries will act as a convergence
zone and help provide the lift needed to allow convection to
kick off and lead to the chance for thunderstorms and heavy
showers. Temperatures look to trend upward through the early
parts of the week with temperatures peaking in the 80s to
possibly near 90f in some locations.

Wednesday, a high pressure system will be situated over the
northeastern us. A weak east to southeasterly flow will be in place
over our region. The flow off the bay coupled with existing pwat
values will lead to the ideal conditions for the formation for
further convective showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr is expected through Friday night as high pressure builds
across the area. The chance for fog at any of the terminals
through the period looks slim, although mrb would stand the
highest chance. Winds will be generally less than 10 knots
through tonight. Southerly flow will then become established
Friday. A disturbance will likely bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday.

On Sunday, a southerly flow will be in place with disorganized
showers and thunderstorms possible, along with potential for
sub-vfr conditions. The unsettled weather will continue into
Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Marine
North to northeasterly around 10 knots are expected for the
remainder of today. As high pressure moves offshore tonight
into Friday, southerly flow will develop, but should remain
below SCA criteria. Some of the wider waters of the bay may
reach SCA criteria Friday night as southerly flow increases, but
confidence is low. Winds may also be marginal on Saturday,
although the larger threat may come from thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with storms creating
strong gusts both Sunday and Monday. The southerly flow over
the chesapeake may also lead to the need for a small craft
advisory on both Sunday and Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies have lowered this afternoon, however minor flooding is
still possible at washington alexandria early Friday morning.

Flooding at any other sites are not anticipated.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Jmg
aviation... Mm jmg
marine... Mm jmg
tides coastal flooding... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi43 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 72°F1019.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 72°F1019.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi43 min 81°F 69°F1019 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 27 mi43 min S 5.1 G 8 81°F 66°F1019.3 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi49 min S 7 G 8.9 79°F 1019.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi43 min SSE 7 G 8 77°F 1019.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi43 min S 2.9 G 6 78°F 70°F1019.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 40 mi43 min 75°F 66°F1018.8 hPa
CPVM2 41 mi43 min 74°F 60°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi43 min 79°F 1019.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 44 mi71 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 1020.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi121 min E 6 77°F 1020 hPa56°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi31 min SSW 7 G 8 76°F 70°F1020.7 hPa (-0.9)51°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD6 mi95 minSE 77.00 miClear82°F46°F28%1020 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi46 minSE 410.00 miClear81°F57°F45%1020 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm------------------CalmCalmNW5NW10N10NE10N8N6NE5CalmS5S5SE7S4
1 day agoE4E4NE4CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW6NW5
G15
NW6NW8N10N6CalmN5N5NW5
2 days agoCalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4--------E6E7NE4E4NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Thu -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.61.11.72.12.42.42.21.81.410.70.60.711.522.22.32.11.81.41

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:07 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.41.41.91.91.61-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.21.422.11.91.40.2-1.4-1.9-2-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.