Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Havre de Grace, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:09 AM EDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:58PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 442 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Rest of the overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 442 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to the south today. Low pressure will move northward along the mid-atlantic coast tonight and it will pass through our area Thursday. The low will intensify to our northeast Thursday night through Friday night before high pressure returns for the weekend. Low pressure may impact the waters early next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for portions Thursday night through Saturday and a gale warning may be needed for the waters Friday afternoon and Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havre de Grace city, MD
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location: 39.54, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200755
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
355 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will slowly build to the south today. Coastal low
pressure will develop over north carolina tonight and the low
will pass through our area Thursday. The low will intensify as
it moves off to the northeast Thursday night through Friday and
high pressure will return for the weekend. Low pressure may
impact the area early next week with more unsettled conditions
possible.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface high pressure overhead this morning will gradually slide
south and east this afternoon. A return flow will allow for a
milder afternoon, but there will be plenty of high and mid-level
clouds well ahead of the next system. MAX temps will top off in
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Two potent shortwaves associated with the northern stream of the
jet will phase together over the great lakes into the
southeastern CONUS tonight. The positively tilted upper-level
trough will swing toward neutral and even a negative tilt toward
morning. This means that coastal low pressure is expected to
develop to our south over north carolina tonight. Guidance
continues to trend stronger and farther west with this system,
and that makes sense given the strong upper-level ridge
currently over the rockies.

A plume of warm and moist air from the atlantic will overrun the
surface colder air in place, resulting in increasing chances for
rain tonight. For this evening, most areas will end up dry
during the commute. However, late this evening and overnight
rain is expected to quickly overspread most of the area.

The coastal low will pass through the area Thursday and the
upper-level low associated with this system will close off as
the trough axis continues to swing to a negative tilt. This
means that forcing will be quite potent with this system, and
when combined with the moisture streaming in from the
atlantic... A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely.

Rainfall amounts around 1-3 inches are most likely, especially
from near i-95 toward the blue ridge and catoctin mountains,
just northwest of the surface low and along the track of the
upper-level low. There will be a tight gradient between
significant rain vs little or no rain that is most likely to
setup over the potomac highlands. However, given the westward
trend with guidance, even across these areas there will be
likely pops.

As for a flood threat, confidence is still low at this time due
to the recent dry conditions and the fact that most of the rain
will fall over a 12-18 hr period. However, should the higher
rainfall amounts be realized then there is a possibility for
some creeks and streams to rise out of their banks later
Thursday, especially from near interstate 95 to the blue ridge
and catoctin mountains.

The low will move off to the northeast Thursday night and it
will phase with more northern stream energy over new england on
Friday. This northern stream energy will swing through our area
Friday, and with cold advection and potent shortwave energy this
will cause a bkn CU deck along with isolated scattered showers.

Would not be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or have
small hail as well due to the abundant amount of cold air aloft
underneath the subsidence inversion. Mountain snow showers are
likely during this time, with accumulations likely along west of
the allegheny front.

The low will intensify off the new england coast late Friday and
Friday night while high pressure builds over the central conus.

The strong gradient from this along with strong pressure rises
suggest that gusty northwest winds will develop. It will feel
quite chilly due to the gusty winds as well. However, most areas
will end up dry Friday night with just a few snow showers near
the mountains. Frequent wind gusts around 30 to 45 mph are
likely with some gusts around 50 mph possible, especially in the
mountains. The best gradient and pressure rises do not quite
align perfectly with peak heating, but assuming the low rapidly
intensifies which most guidance suggests that it does... Then the
windy conditions are still more likely than not.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
A split upper level flow pattern will be in place during the
long term period, with a highly amplified northern stream and
more progressive southern stream. Over the weekend, surface high
pressure and shortwave ridging will replace the influence of the
vertically stacked low moving into the canadian maritimes. There
will still be enough of a gradient that winds will remain a bit
gusty Saturday. Dry weather is expected though. With 850 mb
temperatures at their nadir on Saturday, highs will likely be
5-10 degrees below normal, then rebound closer to normal on
Sunday as the surface high quickly moves offshore and warm
advection ensues.

Considerable model spread develops early next week as a northern
stream cold front shortwave trough drops south from canada and
southern stream energy ejects out of the intermountain west, and
their subsequent interaction. Faster solutions would have
precipitation arriving as early as Monday, while the slower
solutions would favor Tuesday. Low pressure may develop along
the front and stall its southward progress. Such a solution
would likely result in a longer period of precipitation. While
the amount of cold air on the northern side of the front is
uncertain, some wintry weather can't be ruled out at some point
within the system, particularly in the higher elevations.

Regardless of the exact details, some precipitation will become
increasingly likely across the area during this time frame.

Temperatures will depend on the exact frontal positioning, but
likely take a dive from above normal to below normal as the
front passes.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will bringVFR conditions through this evening.

Coastal low pressure will cause rain and subvfr conditions late
tonight through most of Thursday. Ifr conditions are expected
during this time. Rain may be locally heavy Thursday.

Northwest winds will cause improving CIGS vsbys Thursday night
as the low moves away. A few showers are possible Friday, and
small hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon early
evening. Gusty northwest winds are likely Friday night as low
pressure intensifies to our northeast.

Vfr conditions are likely through the weekend as high pressure
builds into the area. Northwest winds gusting AOA 25 kt will
remain possible through Saturday before tapering off Saturday
night.

Marine
High pressure will move offshore today and a return flow will
develop. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below SCA criteria, but gusts around 15 knots are expected this
afternoon into tonight.

Coastal low pressure will pass through the waters Thursday.

Did issue an SCA across the middle portion of the bay and the
lower tidal potomac river where confidence is highest for sca
wind gusts due to a strengthening gradient. The SCA may need to
be expanded farther north in area, but confidence was too low at
this time.

The low intensify Thursday night into Friday as it moves to the
northeast and it will intensify even further later Friday into
Friday night. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for
the waters Thursday night into Friday a gale warning may be
needed for the waters later Friday through Friday night.

Gusty northwest winds will continue into Saturday, with small
craft advisories appearing likely. The winds will subside
Saturday night as high pressure moves overhead, then become
southerly on Sunday as the high moves offshore.

Tides coastal flooding
Coastal low pressure will pass through the waters Thursday. An
onshore flow in response to the low passing through will cause
elevated water levels, and minor flooding is possible for
sensitive areas later Thursday into Thursday evening. The flow
will turn offshore later Thursday night.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Ads
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi45 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 48°F1029.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi39 min E 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 47°F1029.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 27 mi39 min Calm G 1 35°F 42°F1029.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi45 min 1028.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi39 min W 1 G 1.9 36°F 45°F1028.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi39 min Calm G 1 39°F 1029 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi45 min Calm G 1 39°F 1028.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 40 mi39 min 34°F 46°F1028.9 hPa
CPVM2 41 mi39 min 42°F 32°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi39 min SW 8 G 8.9 39°F 44°F1029.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi39 min 37°F 1028.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi159 min Calm 30°F 1030 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi69 min SSE 8 G 8.9 42°F 45°F1029.9 hPa (-0.6)31°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi87 minWNW 310.00 miFair32°F28°F87%1029.8 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE3NE6NE7S8S10S12SE10S7S8S5
1 day ago------------------E6NE7E7E9NE8NE7NE9NE7--CalmE6E6S7SE5Calm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Wed -- 04:32 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:07 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.30.80.3-0-00.30.91.522.22.11.81.40.90.40.100.30.91.62.22.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:19 PM EDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:58 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2-1.8-1.4-0.61.21.92.22.11.60.6-1.4-2-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.40.21.62.22.321.4-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.