Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:35 PM EDT (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the area today, then move offshore Friday and remain positioned there through the weekend. Low pressure may approach the area from the south early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241930
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
330 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure across our region will gradually shift offshore
Friday. A weak cold front moves southward across at least parts of
our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then stalls in our area
through Monday. A secondary cold front moves through during Tuesday,
followed by high pressure Tuesday night before it moves offshore
during Wednesday. A warm front may approach on Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
High pressure centered over the great lakes ohio valley continues to
build east tonight.

Clear skies and light winds on tap for tonight, and this should
result in radiational cooling away from the urban centers. Lows will
range from the mid 50s in most of nj and eastern pa, upper 50s in
the delmarva, and in the lower 60s along the i-95 corridor from
trenton to philly. Patchy radiational fog is possible, mainly in the
sheltered valleys.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
High pressure continues to build east on Friday. Winds shift to more
of a southwest flow and tap into some gulf of mexico moisture.

Surface dewpoints will rise into the 50s and humidity levels along
with temperatures will creep up a bit. Afternoon sea breezes will
likely not make as much westward progression due to the increasing
offshore wind. Most likely areas that could sea breeze will be right
along the nj coast.

Warmer temperatures expected with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s, except a bit cooler in the mountains and along the
coast.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Summary... Very warm and more humid over the weekend, although some
cooling should occur Sunday into Monday. Increasing chances of
showers thunder during the holiday weekend, with perhaps some
drying as we go through next week.

Synoptic overview... The flow aloft is forecast to become more blocky
in nature with a closed low in the west and a closed low in the
vicinity of the central gulf coast. Meanwhile, a ridge is near the
plains with some troughing sliding near the great lakes and
northeast. This offers not much change, however the details become
less clear especially with the extent of impacts associated with a
cold front sliding southward from new england later in the weekend
and early next week. In addition, tropical moisture is forecast to
surge northward from the gulf of mexico associated with the
aforementioned trough aloft and surface low development. This all
occurs as a ridge remains situated off the southeast u.S. Coast. The
theme in the guidance continues to show increasing chances for
convection during the holiday weekend. It does not appear to be a
washout, however there looks to be times where it will be
convectively active. The trough in eastern canada and the northeast
may then amplify enough during Monday and Tuesday along with the
passage of a cold front to push the deeper moisture to our south and
east.

For Friday night... High pressure at the surface is forecast to be
centered in the western atlantic. The flow across the mid-atlantic
is more zonal, however a short wave trough is forecast to be
shifting east-southeastward from the midwest and upper great lakes.

A continued southwesterly flow will allow for increasing moisture
advection therefore it will start to become a bit more humid through
the night. A precipitable water surge to around 1.5 inches is
forecast to overspread at least the southern half of the area toward
daybreak Saturday. The gradual increase in surface dew points will
result in a warmer night, and some higher level clouds may cross the
area at times.

For Saturday and Sunday... A ridge remains centered off the southeast
u.S. Coast with a ridge into the plains and closed low out west.

Some northern stream energy however allows for a short wave trough
to slide eastward from the great lakes region while a more
pronounced upper-level trough moves across the canadian maritimes.

The latter has surface low pressure tied to it and a trailing cold
front is forecast to settle southward into our area. The forecast
challenge continues to figure out how far south this front gets
Sunday and how strong the southwestward push from high pressure is
for a time. Prior to this, southwesterly flow will maintain very
warm and humid air across the region. A plume of precipitable water
around 2 inches overspreads the area Saturday. Within this plume,
increasing instability along with some northern stream short wave
energy should initiate some convection especially from late morning
through the afternoon on Saturday. This should be mostly focused
across the western zones to start, potentially tied to a weak lee
side trough and terrain circulations, then shift eastward through
the day. Convection on Saturday could be enhanced some if the short
wave trough from the west ends up providing more support.

There will be additional convection on Sunday especially in the
afternoon and evening as the surface cold front sags southward which
should provide a bit more convergence. While the deeper tropical
moisture plume may reside just to our south, plenty of moisture in
our area combined with possible slower storm motion and training may
result in a local very heavy rain flood threat. The extent of this
is of lower confidence at this time.

For Monday and Tuesday... The overall pattern does not change much,
although there may be more of an influence of an upper-level trough
in the northeast. While a residual frontal zone should be in our
vicinity Monday, low pressure is forecast to track well to our north
with another cold front moving through during Tuesday. Some
convection should occur especially Monday, however the extent of it
is less certain. There will be a tropical moisture plume still just
to our south, and if this is more involved across our area then an
enhancement to daytime convection is possible. Despite another cold
front moving through on Tuesday, showers thunder may end up being
more limited especially if a short wave trough is a little faster
and allows for some drying to occur from the northwest.

For Wednesday and Thursday... A trough aloft may still be across the
gulf coast beneath a ridge to its north. The ridge across parts of
the great lakes should shift eastward some, allowing surface high
pressure to build into our area. A front will be lurking to our
south with tropical moisture residing to its south, therefore the
placement of this will be key regarding any shower thunder chances
for parts of our area. More uncertainty at this time frame as
convective changes will depend on the track of a trough aloft as
well as a plume of tropical moisture as high pressure shifts
offshore.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR and clear skies will continue. With high
pressure building in from the nw, N winds should gradually weaken
and may become light SW by evening. Another factor is the sea breeze
front which is already apparent on radar as of early afternoon. This
will cause a wind shift to the SE at around 10 kt at acy by 19z or
so, and also miv a couple hours later. This sea breeze could reach
phl and nearby terminals around 23z to 00z. High confidence except
for sea breeze timing.

Tonight...VFR with clear skies continues. With high pressure
offshore, winds will be SW around 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Friday... StillVFR and mostly clear skies. High pressure moves
farther offshore and SW winds will increase to 10-15 knots with
possible gusts up to 20 knots. Moderately high confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR. Southwest winds less than 10 knots.

Saturday and Sunday... Times of sub-vfr conditions with some showers
and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible at times due to a
chance of some showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds shifting to the SE through this evening at less than 10 kt,
and will become SW tonight. Pressure gradient tightens on Friday,
but think there will be a strong enough inversion to keep wind gusts
capped at sub-sca criteria. Best chances for 25 kt wind gusts Friday
afternoon will be in northern nj ocean waters, where the ambrose jet
may result in locally stronger wind gusts. Seas on ocean 2-4
feet.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... Southwesterly winds may gust to near 25
knots at times. The overall mixing should be limited some due to a
much warmer airmass moving over the cooler waters. Seas should be 4
feet or less.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria, however a cold front from the north sags into our
area and this will have an impact on the wind direction.

Tuesday... The conditions should be below small craft advisory
criteria.

Rip currents...

the risk of rip currents through this evening is low. Despite
an onshore component to the flow with speeds 8-12 kt, wave
heights and swells are forecast to be near 2 ft.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi47 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 72°F1019.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8 81°F 66°F1019.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi47 min 81°F 69°F1019 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi47 min 75°F 66°F1018.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 72°F1019.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 40 mi125 min E 6 77°F 1020 hPa56°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi47 min SSE 7 G 8 77°F 1019.5 hPa
FSNM2 43 mi53 min S 7 G 8.9 79°F 1019.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi47 min S 2.9 G 6 78°F 70°F1019.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi47 min 85°F 64°F1018.3 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi47 min 74°F 60°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi44 minS 810.00 miFair79°F51°F38%1019.4 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.7 hrsSE 77.00 miClear82°F46°F28%1020 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------NW10N9N9N10CalmCalmSE44S9S9S8
1 day agoNE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmNE5CalmCalmS3S4W7NW14N10N11NW7NW8NW12NW12
G17
NW11----
2 days agoS12S11S10SE4SE5SE3CalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalmS3E6SE8SW8SE5S8SE6E54E3NE4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:56 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.81.21.82.53.13.33.332.521.51.10.91.11.62.12.6332.72.31.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:07 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.41.41.91.91.61-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.21.422.11.91.40.2-1.4-1.9-2-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.