Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:44 AM EDT (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move east of the waters through Monday. A low pressure system will affect the region Tuesday. A small craft advisory is likely for portions of the waters Monday through Tuesday. Gales are also possible for portions of the waters on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211534
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1134 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the area will move offshore later today
but continue to influence our weather into Monday. A cold front
approaching from the west is expected to approach the region on
Tuesday. Low pressure will move along the front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Another low will affect the area Thursday before
more high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
This afternoon... Sunny. Light wind becoming southeast during
the afternoon. High temps a couple of degrees warmer than ydy.

Looking at the ECMWF 925 mb modeled temperatures current
thinking is that many locations in south jersey and delmarva
come close or even reach 80. This matches up better than the
cooler GFS values based on and old rule of the 10am temperature
+10 degrees for the afternoon high. MAX temps about 10 to 15f
above normal with the greatest positive departures i95
northwestward. Looks very good for 75-79 virtually everywhere
i95 corridor northwestward with support from the 00z 21 ec 2m
temp fcst at 18z today. It will be slightly cooler high terrain.

The 74 we're fcstg at kmpo is 3f short of the record of 77 -
1959. Effective sea breezing along the coast this aftn with
water temps in the 60s... Which are still significantly above
normal for this time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Clear and nearly calm but patchy fog may form toward dawn Sunday,
especially SE of i-95 where shallow moisture may increase enough
for fog. Certainly a dewy late night early morning. The fcst is
a 50 50 blend of the GFS nam MOS with countryside temps lowered
2-3f below the blended guidance and not much above this mornings
mins... Ranging from zero to +10 of normal depending on location.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure will still be in control of the weather for Sunday and
Monday. Moisture will begin to arrive over the area however. This
will result in some cloudiness and areas of fog for Sunday morning
and increasing clouds for Monday. This will likely keep temperatures
a few degrees cooler than Saturday, but readings will still be above
normal for this part of october.

A slow moving front and a upper trough will arrive from the ohio
valley Tuesday-Wednesday. As it approaches, it slows, as low
pressure will be deepening across the tenn valley area. The low will
move along the front, just west of our region tue-tue night. This
should bring a period of showers and gusty winds to the area. Pops
are mostly in the likely low categorical range at this time. Qpf
thru 12z wed. Could reach 1 2 to 1 inch over much of the area.

The latest ECMWF model does have a few spots closer to 2 inches
of QPF however. Some of the guidance suggests that some tstms
are also possible. We will not have tstms in the grids at this
point, but will have to consider as we get closer to the event.

Temperatures will be above normal Tuesday, but then fall to
normal Wednesday as the front passes. Pops will decrease back to
chc or slgt chc levels after the front moves offshore.

There will still be a few sct showers around Thu as the upper low
crosses the area. After that, high pressure with drier air is
expected for fri. Temperatures will be near normal for both of these
days.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through today...VFR with a few cirrus, especially this afternoon.

Light north to northeast wind trending southeast during this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with some cirrus. The ifr st fog may develop,
especially southeast of i-95 toward dawn Sunday... Also the river
valleys in NE pa and NW nj.

Outlook...

Sunday... A little fog or stratus early... OtherwiseVFR,
Sunday night and Monday... Low clouds and fog are possible from
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise... MainlyVFR.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Conditions lowering to
MVFR and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
evening, along with a south wind gusting around 25 to 30 mph.

Wednesday... Conditions improving toVFR.

Marine
Winds and seas well below SCA criteria through tonight.

Light N winds 5-10 kt will veer over the next 24 hours,
becoming east around midday and then s-se late today and
tonight.

Seas in our coastal waters of around 2 ft through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Monday... Sub-sca conditions with fair weather.

Monday night... SCA developing on the ocean. Chance of showers.

Tue-tue night... SCA conditions on the ocean and del bay. Showers.

Wed-wed night... SCA on the ocean. Sub-sca on del bay. Chc showers.

Fire weather
Rh values are likely to drop to around 25% this afternoon but
light winds will limit the risk for a rapid rate of spread of
any wildfires.

Climate
**top 5 warmest october on record for phl and abe and probably
for rest of our forecast area**
our 330 am forecast for the next 7 days, then adding the
day8-11 from ftprha GFS 2meter MAX min temps yields the
following projections for average temperature in october.

Phl projects warmest october on record. The 64.7 degrees
projected average is more than 7 degrees above the october 30
year avg of 57.5. The projected positive departure is the same
as it is for the first 20 days of the month.

Previous top 3 average temps for october in phl
1. 64.5 2007
2. 63.5 1971
3. 62.7 1947
to drop out of the top 3 warmest the phl avg would have to
be 2 degrees lower than currently forecast.

Abe 60.3 or nearly 8 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5.

This is #2.

1. 60.8 2007
2. 60.3 2017 projected
3. 59.5 1984
4. 59.3 1947
5. 58.8 1971
the values below are the october departures from normal through
the 20th (yesterday).

Phl 7.2
ilg 7.1
abe 8.5
mpo 6.9
rdg 7.7
ttn 7.8
acy 7.0
55n 5.0
ged 6.5
the last two years in phl ending 10 20 17 is the warmest in the
period of record dating back to 1872... Averaging more than 3
degrees above normal.

Ditto allentown, wilmington being the warmest in their
respective periods of record.

Equipment
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and was recovered. Its
return to service date is unknown.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag gaines
short term... Drag
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag o'hara
marine... Drag o'hara
fire weather...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi44 min Calm G 0 68°F 65°F1028.4 hPa (+1.2)
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 12 mi34 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 1028.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi44 min Calm G 1 64°F 62°F1028.2 hPa (+1.3)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi44 min 64°F 67°F1027.8 hPa (+1.2)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi44 min 65°F 69°F1027.8 hPa (+1.4)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi50 min N 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 67°F1027.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 64°F 65°F1028.4 hPa (+1.2)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 40 mi74 min NNE 2.9 66°F 1028 hPa46°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 41 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 63°F 1 ft1029.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi44 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 64°F 1028.4 hPa (+1.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi44 min S 1 G 4.1 66°F 70°F1028 hPa (+1.4)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi44 min 68°F 66°F1027.5 hPa (+1.2)
CPVM2 49 mi44 min 64°F 59°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair69°F44°F41%1028.3 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair62°F50°F64%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW9N10NW10NW10NW9NW6NW7SW3W5NW5NW3W4CalmN3NW4CalmCalmN3W3NW4NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoW8SW11W11SW8SW9SW7SW6SW4SW5SW3W3CalmCalmCalmW3W4NW3NW3NW4W4NW6NW6NW7N7
2 days agoNW5Calm5SW5SW8SW9SW6SW4SW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:12 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:54 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.12.621.51.111.21.62.12.62.82.72.31.71.20.70.50.611.62.433.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:29 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     2.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:42 PM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.5-1.10.41.4221.70.9-1.1-1.8-2.1-2.2-2-1.6-11.11.92.22.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.