Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:51PM Saturday February 24, 2018 5:19 AM EST (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 337 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will approach the waters as a warm front this morning and it will remain nearby through tonight before eventually moving to the north Sunday. A cold front will pass through from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East, MD
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location: 39.58, -75.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240924
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
424 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will move slowly northward tonight
into Sunday. A low pressure system will cross to the north of our
area with its attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High
pressure will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold
front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed by an
area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday and perhaps
intensifying along the coast early Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Several changes were made to the forecast today. Fog is getting
dense in chester county and the maryland eastern shore. Have
issued a dense fog advisory through 8 am for these areas, and
there is at least some chance the advisory may need to be
carried eastward into delaware given short-term model forecasts
and recent trends in dov ged surface observations. Visibility
should improve by mid to late morning, but patchy fog and even
some drizzle look to remain through much of the day across the
area.

This leads to concern number two, which is the forecast highs today.

Inherited forecast simply looks too warm for the given pattern.

Despite potential for rising cloud bases (albeit gradually) during
the day, the overcast will very likely stick around. Though it has
been a warm february, it is still february -- and with my
pessimistic sky forecast today, I am awfully skeptical temperatures
will reach the upper 50s in portions of SE pa S nj. Generally, i
lowered temperatures 3-5 degrees across the area, and I am wondering
if this is enough, especially if this morning's observations agree
with the colder nam. Forecast temps may require more fine-tuning in
future updates, but I felt that starting the trend downward was
warranted.

Several midlevel perturbations move northeastward into the northern
mid-atlantic today, and with favorable positioning of the northern-
stream 250-mb jet MAX (right-entrance region dynamics in play)
combined with low-level isentropic ascent along north of a
baroclinic zone stretching zonally across the region, periodic bouts
of rain look to occur in the CWA beginning this afternoon,
especially north of the mason-dixon line. There is still some
variability in timing of the precipitation, so I kept hourly pops in
the 50-80 percent range for the afternoon until there is more solid
agreement amongst the hi-res models. Nevertheless, rain is a pretty
good bet in pa nj this afternoon with diminishing chances in
southern md de. QPF is generally a quarter inch or less through 00z
Sunday, though amounts may be a little higher than that in the
poconos and lehigh valley if the more aggressive models are
correct.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
One round of rain should be diminishing and moving away from the
region during the evening hours, but conditions will likely once
again be favorable for low clouds, fog, and drizzle during this
time. Trended pops downward during the evening hours, but maintained
categorical pops after midnight as the next round of rain is
expected to move in. Kept mention of fog through the night, but
generally kept drizzle confined to the evening hours, as steadier
rain is more likely after midnight, especially north of the mason-
dixon line.

This next round of rain will occur as yet another vort max
approaches the region in midlevel southwesterly flow between 06z and
12z Sunday. Isentropic ascent poleward of the quasi-stationary
baroclinic zone will allow for precipitation to break out again
(with help from the steady 250-mb jet MAX to our north). The
enhanced ascent provided by the stronger vort max, the slowly
poleward-moving warm front, and the considerable upper-level
divergence aided by the jet MAX will likely lead to more formidable
rainfall totals during this period. Generally, amounts should be
approaching a half inch to an inch north of the mason-dixon line by
night's end with lighter amounts to the south. Fairly decent
agreement among hi-res models on qpf, so confidence is slightly
above average.

Temperatures will not fall too much as the warm front makes its move
(slowly) northward, overcast conditions continue, and warm advection
curtails nocturnal cooling. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper
30s in the poconos and northwest new jersey to the mid to upper 40s
southeast of the fall line. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures
in the poconos, as models tend to have a warm bias in this area
north of warm fronts, and even a couple degrees cooler could mean at
least a chance for some isolated slick spots. For now, chances are
too low for mention.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A progressive mid-level flow pattern will provide changeable weather
for the Sunday through Friday time period, with normal to slightly
above normal temperatures through most of the period.

A warm front associated with a low pressure system moving NE through
the great lakes region will lift north Sunday morning before its
associated cold front pushes east during the afternoon and evening
hours. The passage of this cold front will bring an end to any
lingering rain and rain showers. As precipitation from this system
ends Sunday night,rainfall totals are still expected to range
between 1 and 2 inches. This will cause ponding of water on roadways
and in poor drainage areas, and rises on small stream, but no
significant stream and river flooding is anticipated at this time,
especially given the longer duration of the event. Please see hydro
section below.

High pressure from the tennessee river valley is then expected to
build east, bringing dry weather to the region from late Sunday
night through most of Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected
Monday into Tuesday with a northwesterly flow (but still above
normal), followed by warmer temperatures on Wednesday as a
southwesterly flow once again establishes itself over the area.

Another cold front is expected to cross the area Wednesday night but
with limited moisture, precipitation amounts will be light. A
potentially more significant rain storm could move in later Thursday
and Friday as low pressure develops near the mid-atlantic coast.

Some light snow is even possible on Friday in the far north with a
northwest flow as the system moves NE away from the area.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Ifr to lifr conditions in very low clouds and fog,
with the densest fog southwest of philly. CIGS should slowly rise
after daybreak but may remain ifr for much of the morning. Timing
the improvement in CIGS vsbys is very uncertain, but current
thinking is that this may be slower to occur than previous forecasts
indicated. Winds generally southwest under 10 kts, becoming more
variable after daybreak. High confidence through daybreak, but low
confidence thereafter.

This afternoon... Some improvement to MVFR or evenVFR possible,
especially at acy miv, but periods of rain will likely move in from
the west this afternoon. Sub-vfr vsbys CIGS in the steadier rain are
likely. Winds becoming northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight... Prolonged sub-vfr conditions likely as fog drizzle are
expected this evening followed by steadier rain after midnight.

Winds generally east or northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday... Ifr conditions expected with limited improvement
through the day. Confidence is low that we will return toVFR during
the day. East to southeast winds will become southwest to west by
the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Improving toVFR through the night. Rain showers will
taper off through Sunday evening and conditions are expected to
improve. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. West to
northwest winds becoming gusty to around 20 knots on Monday.

High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds,
generally around 10 knots or less, becoming more south to
southeast late. High confidence.

Marine
Generally sub-advisory winds seas expected through this evening.

However, winds will begin to increase on the northern central nj
coastal waters late tonight as east to northeast winds begin to
crank up in response to an approaching storm system. Have issued a
small craft advisory for these areas beginning at 3 am Sunday.

Another concern is visibility restrictions this morning. Dense fog
is occurring off the maryland coast, and surface visibilities
are now deteriorating in delaware and in coastal southern new
jersey. As a result, a dense fog advisory was issued for
delaware bay and the atlantic coastal waters of southern new
jersey and delaware through 10 am.

Visibility restrictions may continue most of the day, though
visibilities may improve somewhat, and rain chances will
increase this afternoon and tonight, especially off the nj
coast.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on the
area waters.

Sunday and Sunday night... Seas are expected to build and exceed
5 feet on the ocean on Sunday. Winds also pick up through the
day Sunday with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Conditions will
improve late Sunday night. A small craft advisory has been
issued.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected
on the area waters.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through the weekend could result in minor and
poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rain is expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when up to additional inch of rain will fall.

By the time the rain ends Monday morning, the region will have
received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since Thursday, with the
highest amounts falling over the northern third of the forecast
area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be rises on areas
rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today based on
our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this morning; and
for rainfall, amounts through noon today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.2 or 7.5f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.2-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 43.0 or 7.7f warmer than the 35.3 norm. Tied
with last year. #2 40.6 in 1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.6 or 6.6f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.6-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.0 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.2-1925
42.0-2018
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent monthly pcpn
phl ranked #10 with 5.28" (0.21 as of noon daily)
ilg ranked #8 with 5.49" (0.49 as of noon daily)
abe ranked #16 with 4.29" (0.07 as of noon daily)
acy ranked #2 with 6.12" (0.28" as of noon daily)
wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation is that acy will exceed the
previous all time record rainfall for february, by the end of the
weekend.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for paz101-102.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz452>455.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz430-431-
453>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz450-451.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Miketta
aviation... Cms miketta
marine... Cms miketta
hydrology... Staff
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi49 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 45°F 40°F1021.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi49 min 45°F 43°F1021.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi55 min 45°F 45°F1021.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi49 min S 4.1 G 6 46°F 45°F1021.5 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi49 min Calm G 2.9 46°F 1021.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi49 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 44°F 1021.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi49 min Calm G 1 46°F 44°F1021.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 42 mi109 min SSW 4.1 47°F 1022 hPa47°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 47 mi49 min 45°F 42°F1021.5 hPa
CPVM2 48 mi49 min 44°F 44°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE17 mi28 minWNW 66.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1022.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD17 mi81 minSSW 41.38 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1022 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E7E6E5E4NE5E5E4E4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW4SW7W3SW6SW3SW4
1 day agoN7NE8N7NE10N6NE8NE8NE10NE10E10NE7NE9NE14NE12E8E10
G18
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2 days agoSW7SW6SW7SW6SW8W6SW12SW11S8S13SW11SW11SW11SW6NW3CalmW12
G17
CalmCalmNE14N9N8N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
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Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:41 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:43 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.21.51.61.30.80.3-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.30.20.91.62.22.62.62.31.81.40.90.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:53 AM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:11 PM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:50 PM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.81.71.1-1.1-1.7-2-2.2-2.1-1.7-1.10.41.31.82.11.91.50.7-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.