Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:58PM Monday April 23, 2018 5:42 AM EDT (09:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 433 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 433 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move off the new england coast today. An area of low pressure over the tennessee valley and southeast u.s. Will approach the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230800
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
400 am edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today. A low pressure system
will bring unsettled weather to the region tonight through the
middle of next week. A brief ridge ridge of high pressure will
build in later in the week, ahead of the next low pressure
system toward the weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will move off of the east coast today as a cut-
off low pressure system moves up the east coast from the
southeast u.S. Winds will persist out of the southeast ahead of
the low pressure system. Clouds will thicken through the day
today. Temperatures will modify some into the middle 60s. Some
light rain could overspread the region from the southwest to
northeast later today into tonight. The first areas to
encounter this rain will be the central shenandoah valley.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As the cut-off low and a couple of pieces of upper level energy move
into the mid-atlantic region Tuesday, additional rounds of light to
moderate rain will develop and overspread most of the region. This
rain should gradually taper to showers Tuesday night and end from
southwest to northeast. However, the ending time may be delayed as
the next upper level disturbance will be quick on the heels of the
Monday night and Tuesday low pressure system. Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler Tuesday due to cloud cover and rainfall
and about 5 to 10 degrees milder Tuesday night due to the same two
factors.

Low pressure will be moving northeast away from the area Wednesday
morning, leaving a chance for some residual showers in its wake.

Another quick moving shortwave will move through Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning. Some showers will be possible with this
system as well, especially Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday
will be below average, thanks to the cloud cover and precipitation
expected over the area.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The area of low pressure will depart off to the northeast on
Thursday leading to dry conditions and slightly below normal
temperatures.

The forecast becomes much more uncertain for Friday. Several
different shortwave disturbances will interact as they move across
the CONUS between now and Friday. The high number of these complex
interactions lend themselves to high uncertainty in the forecast for
Friday through Sunday. The GFS forms a surface low in the southeast
Thursday night out ahead of a compact shortwave, and then proceeds
to track that low up the east coast on Friday giving us a round of
rain. On the other hand, the euro keeps the shortwave and attendant
area of low pressure suppressed to the south and weaker in nature.

Roughly half of the members in the 00z GEFS give us over a tenth of
an inch of rain, and only a few members of the 12z eps gave us over
a tenth of an inch with this system. So, to summarize... There's at
least a chance for rainfall on Friday, but it's an uncertain
forecast to say the least.

Another upper-level trough and associated weakening cold front will
approach the area from the west this weekend. Most model guidance
keeps us dry with the passage of this front, but some light
precipitation can't be ruled out. Temperatures this weekend are
expected to remain slightly below average.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions expected through Monday with light and variable
winds, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and tonight.

Winds southeast around 10 knots Monday and Monday night. MVFR
conditions are possible at the cho terminal Monday night with some
light rain approaching from the southwest.

MVFR conditions possible at all terminals Tuesday and Tuesday night
due to light to moderate rain. Winds east 10 to 15 knots Tuesday
becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day on Wednesday sub-vfr
conditions possible during this time.

Vfr conditions are likely on Thursday. Conditions
could potentially drop to sub-vfr on Friday if a coastal low were to
develop, but the forecast is highly uncertain at this point.

Conditions will likely return toVFR for the weekend.

Marine
No marine hazards expected overnight through Monday. Winds southeast
10 to 15 knots Monday. Small craft advisory conditions possible
Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds southeast becoming east 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Monday night and Tuesday.

Winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots gusts to 20 knots Tuesday
night.

As the storm system from Tuesday exits Wednesday morning, some gusty
winds are possible across the marine areas, with SCA criteria winds
possible during that time. Gusty winds also possible Thursday
morning, but not looking as strong as on Wednesday at this time.

No marine hazards are expected Thursday through Sunday at this
time.

Hydrology
While we had significant rain a week ago, its been pretty dry since
then. That said, 1-2 inches of rain looks likely across the region
Monday night through Wednesday, which could lead to some minor
hydrology issues and cause river and stream rises, potentially up to
flood stages. Will be closely monitoring this for potential need of
any flood watches over the next day or so.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches the waters from the southeastern u.S.

Late Monday into Tuesday, a persistent onshore flow will
develop. This will yield increasing tidal anomalies, and the
possibility of coastal flooding toward the middle part of the
work week.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz534-536-537-543.

Synopsis... Klw
near term... Klw
short term... Klw
long term... Kjp
aviation... Klw kjp
marine... Klw kjp
hydrology... Klw
tides coastal flooding... Klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi42 min SSE 1 G 1.9 52°F 55°F1029.7 hPa (-0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi42 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 53°F 55°F1029.2 hPa (-0.4)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi42 min E 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 1029.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi49 minESE 410.00 miA Few Clouds51°F30°F45%1029.5 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1028.2 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE4E9E10E10NE95565E5SE85E5E4E3SE6E4CalmSE3S6SE4SE8SE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmNE43CalmCalmSW4CalmSE4SE3SW3S3CalmCalmE4E4N4NE4
2 days agoW6NW8NW11NW16
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NW7NW7NW3NW4E6CalmCalmN5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
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Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:18 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:33 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.22.8332.521.40.90.60.40.71.32.22.93.23.22.92.31.81.20.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:21 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:36 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.22.8332.621.40.90.50.40.61.32.22.93.23.22.92.41.81.20.80.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.