Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 920 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Rest of today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft late this morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Scattered tstms.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 920 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak high pressure will be across the middle atlantic region today and tonight. Low pressure will cross north of the area Friday and Saturday. Its associated front will slowly cross the area Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area Sunday. Another disturbance will bring some showers to the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221329
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
929 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will be across the middle atlantic region today
and tonight. Low pressure will cross north of the area Friday and
Saturday. Its associated front will slowly cross the area Saturday.

More high pressure will be over the area Sunday. Another disturbance
will bring some showers to the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The weak front is beginning to slowly lift north, leading to
warm and muggy conditions today. Highs today will generally top
off in the upper 70s to low 80s across the poconos and NW nj,
and in the mid to upper 80s across the lehigh valley and much of
nj. Highs will be around 90 in the delmarva. Highs will be
several degrees cooler, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s,
right along the shores.

A weak surface trough coincident with a mid and upper level
short wave trough develops across western pa and tracks east
through the day. This may touch off a few late day showers and
thunderstorms across the lehigh valley and poconos. Will cap
pops at slight chance, as confidence and coverage is low.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Ny lingering showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of i-
76, will taper off this evening.

High pressure continues to drift offshore tonight. Return flow
setting up behind the departing high will usher an increasingly
humid airmass into the mid-atlantic and northeast. Surface dewpoints
will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s, and pwats will climb to
around 2".

Meanwhile, moisture and some shortwave energy associated with what
is currently tropical storm cindy over the tn valley lifts into the
appalachians tonight, and then towards the northeast after midnight.

With ml MUCAPE values approaching 1000 j kg across northern nj and
the poconos, there is the potential for some thunderstorms in the
pre-dawn hours. Latest model guidance holds bulk of precip off until
after 12z Friday, so will cap pops at chance across the region.

However, given the tropical nature of the airmass, can expect
locally heavy rain.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
There will be some unsettled conditions across the region during the
beginning of the long term. A low pressure system will move across
the great lakes and southern canada Friday through Saturday. A slow
moving front, an upper level trough and moisture from cindy will all
reach the area by Saturday. This will bring chcs for showers and a
few tstms Friday and a better chc for rains Saturday. We now have
likely pops for most areas Saturday. There is still some
differences with regards to if the best moisture arrives over
our area, or gets shunted off to the east. Temperatures will be
a bit above normal Friday and closer to normal for Saturday,
with more clouds expected.

Behind the departing system on Sunday, most areas will have fair
weather with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be
mostly in the low mid 80s over the region.

The weakening upper trough will move across the northeast and middle
atlantic region Monday night and Tuesday. We have included some small
chc or slgt chc pops for these periods. Temperatures will be a
little below normal with highs in the upper 70s north and low 80s
across SRN nj and delmarva.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MostlyVFR conditions are expected through today and this
evening. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
west of the fall line (including krdg and kabe) this afternoon
and evening, but the coverage is expected to be very limited so
have not included it in the tafs at this time. Southwesterly winds
increase to 5-10 kt with gusts up to 17-18 kt this afternoon.

A sea breeze may develop this afternoon, shifting the winds to
southeasterly. The TAF sites that have the highest chance to be
affected by a sea breeze are kacy and kmiv.

Tonight... Any lingering shra tsra near krdg and kabe will taper
off this evening. Winds are expected to be light and variable.

MVFR ifr conditions are possible, mainly after 06z as lower
clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms begin to move in
from the southwest.

Outlook...

fri and Fri night... MostlyVFR. Sct showers and a few tstms.

Sat... A period of MVFR or ifr expected. Showers. Sat night thru
Monday... MostlyVFR. Sct showers Monday.

Marine
Light winds this morning become S 8-12 kt this afternoon and
tonight. Ocnl gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon. Seas will
average 3-4' on the ocean and waves will average 1-2' on de bay.

Outlook...

fri... Sub-sca with a chance of showers and tstms.

Fri night thru Sat night... SCA on the ocean and sub-sca on del
bay. Showers with a chance for tstms.

Sun thru mon... Sub-sca with sct showers Monday.

Rip currents...

we are forecasting a low or low enhanced risk for the formation
of dangerous rip currents today. The southerly short period
swell and long period southeasterly swell are both forecast to
slowly subside this morning. A light offshore wind will shift
southeast today.

Even with a low risk... The bigger diurnal difference in the tide
cycle as we approach the date of this months new moon could mean
some rapidly changing conditions. If you're a poor swimmer (dont
overrate your swimming skill please), you should absolutely swim
within sight of the life guards. And... If you get caught in a
rip current or the backwash of the incoming waves is tiring,
relax and remain calm! It's much easier to think about escape
and for the lifeguards to rescue.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the
new moon on Friday. That, combined with increasing southerly flow,
looks to result in minor coastal flooding with the afternoon and
evening high tide primarily for the atlantic coastal areas and the
shores of the delaware bay. Will go ahead and issue a coastal flood
advisory for those areas this evening, as departures will range from
around 1 foot to 1.5 feet. This is enough to hit minor coastal flood
advisory thresholds. Minor coastal flooding may continue with the
Friday afternoon and evening high tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt
this evening for njz012>014-020-022>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt
this evening for dez003-004.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson mps o'hara
marine... Drag mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi96 min WNW 1.9 74°F 1017 hPa68°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi48 min 73°F 62°F1016.4 hPa
44091 24 mi36 min 66°F2 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi48 min E 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1016.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi90 min 74°F 77°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi70 minENE 510.00 miFair74°F66°F76%1017.5 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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SE3SW3S5SW5SW6SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE5Calm
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:50 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.40.2-0-0.10.10.611.31.41.210.70.40.1-0.1-0.10.10.61.21.61.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     2.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:04 PM EDT     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:25 PM EDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.1-3.4-2.7-1.20.52.12.82.51.50.3-0.8-1.8-2.6-3-2.6-1.10.72.43.53.42.41.1-0.3-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.