Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:06PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1235 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Showers likely late.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft late. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1235 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will continue to drift farther out to sea tonight and Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to move through our region Tuesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and it should pass over or near new england and southeastern canada Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230121
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
921 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to drift farther out to sea tonight and
Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to slowly move through our
region later Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to develop along the
front and it should pass over or near new england and southeastern
canada Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure follows for Friday and
Saturday, then another cold front may approach from the west on
Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
High cloudiness continues to move across the region this evening
well in advance of a strong cold front. A light southeasterly flow
will increase the low-level moisture through the overnight, however
this process looks to be gradual. There are even some spots of a mid
level cloud deck. Overall, maintained the trend of increasing clouds
through the overnight and this will probably play a role in how much
fog develops. We kept the fog as patchy for now given some
uncertainty in how widespread it will become especially closer to
daybreak. It is possible that at least patchy dense fog develops
very late tonight. The model forecast soundings indicate that a
stratus deck develops overnight for much of the area, as cooling in
the boundary layer significantly strengthens a low-level inversion
with some moisture pooling beneath it. Some indications of this
already starting to take place across far southeastern new jersey,
as of 01z. As a result, some fog with areas of low clouds are
maintained with slightly more cloudiness indicated especially
north and west of the fall line given the light southeasterly
low-level wind component.

Temperatures once again have dropped quickly earlier this
evening despite the presence of higher level cloudiness, however
dew points are low enough combined with light to calm winds.

This temperature drop should slow and start to level off
overnight as some fog and or low clouds develop with also some
rise in the surface dew points occurring. The hourly temperature
grids were adjusted based on the latest observations, then some
tweaks were made thereafter to account for trends.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
A strong cold front will continue to advance eastward toward our
region in the wake of the departing high pressure. This will result
in a strengthening southeasterly flow to occur allowing for an
uptick in the moisture advection. Some fog (possibly locally dense)
and low clouds persist in the morning, with the fog dissipating
before the low clouds. Some sunshine is expected to break through at
times in the afternoon Monday. Several models are also hinting at a
few light showers across mainly northern nj and eastern pa, so have
continued with slight chance pops in the afternoon. The main shower
activity will hold off until Monday night.

The low clouds may keep temperatures down a bit from what the mos
guidance has, particularly for northern nj and pa. Still, highs
should reach the mid 70's in DELMARVA and 60's to low 70's in the
lehigh valley, poconos and northern nj. There should be enough
mixing in the afternoon to allow the southeast surface wind to
increase some.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
A deepening mid level long wave trough will be in the process
of settling over the eastern half of the country on Monday night
and Tuesday. A negative tilt short wave is forecast to lift
northeastward on the front side of the trough and its axis
should pass over our region early on Tuesday.

A slow moving cold front is expected to extend from the eastern
great lakes to the eastern gulf of mexico on Monday evening.

The boundary will move eastward and it should arrive in our
region late on Tuesday.

The slow forward progress of the front will allow it ample time
to tap into gulf moisture and eventually into some atlantic
moisture as it approaches and moves into our region. As a
result, we are anticipating moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

We have increased our rainfall projections mainly into the 1 to
2 inch range with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the
recent dry spell, we are not expecting any flooding issues other
than some poor drainage flooding. Leaf-clogged drains will
enhance the possibility of ponding of water on roadways.

We remain under a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

The negative tilt short wave and the approaching cold front
suggest the potential for a qlcs set-up. If a narrow convective
line develops, it should work its way from west to east across our
region from late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain is anticipated to linger near the coast
into Tuesday evening until the front begins to make its way out
to sea.

The cold front and its associated cloud cover and precipitation
will continue to move slowly eastward on Wednesday as a wave of
low pressure develops along the boundary and moves up into new
england and vicinity. The axis of the mid level long wave trough
is forecast to pass overhead on Thursday and it should finally
kick the surface system well to our east.

Surface high pressure is expected to begin building into our
region from the southwest and south on Thursday before it slides
out over the ocean on Friday and Saturday. We should experience
some clear for late in the week and the early part of the
weekend.

The model guidance differs in handling the timing of our next
cold front. It appears as though it will arrive around Sunday,
so we will indicate a chance of showers at that time.

Daytime temperatures should be near 10 degrees above normal on
Tuesday. Readings are forecast to drop back near normal on
Wednesday. Slightly below normal temperatures are anticipated
for Thursday with readings rebounding to normal or slight above
normal for Friday and the weekend.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR should continue through about 06z, then areas of
low clouds and or fog is anticipated to develop at all terminals.

The lowest conditions may not occur until closer to daybreak,
as ceilings and or visibilities lower to ifr or even lifr. The
timing of when the conditions drop to and below MVFR is of
lower confidence. Winds mainly light and variable to calm.

Monday... Areas of MVFR ifr ceilings and ifr lifr visibilities with
fog in the morning, then the visibilities improve toVFR by about
15z. The ceilings should improve toVFR at most terminals by early
afternoon. The timing and exact degree of restrictions will be fine-
tuned with subsequent TAF issuances. Light and variable winds,
becoming southeast and increasing to around 10 knots especially in
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... Conditions lowering to
MVFR and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible, along with a south wind gusting around
25 or 30 knots.

Wednesday... A chance of morning showers with conditions
improving toVFR.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Wave heights look to be in a fairly stable state of around two feet
through Monday morning, then build in the afternoon but stay under
four feet. Winds will be at or below 10 knots into Monday, then
increase to around 10 knots during the afternoon. Some fog is
possible overnight and Monday morning especially nearshore.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... A small craft advisory is in effect
for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots. Localized gale force
gusts are possible on Tuesday. Waves on our ocean waters should
build to 7 to 10 feet.

Tuesday evening... A small craft advisory may need for southerly
wind gusts near 30 knots. Waves on our ocean waters are
forecast to be 7 to 10 feet.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday night... A small craft
advisory may be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of 5
to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around 10
to 20 knots.

Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Equipment
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown, though
we'll try to have an answer Monday afternoon.

Weather observations at kvay should be incomplete through Monday
morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Gorse
short term... Gaines gorse
long term... Iovino
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gaines iovino
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi100 min E 2.9 59°F 1027 hPa58°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi52 min 66°F 66°F1027.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi52 min E 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 62°F1027.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi94 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 57°F 64°F1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi74 minN 010.00 mi49°F46°F93%1028.6 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi76 minSE 410.00 miFair62°F61°F96%1027.3 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SE6SE8SE8SE8SE7S6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE8SE6SE5SE6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW7SW5CalmW4NW7NW6NW9NW11NW10NW12NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.10.10.40.81.21.41.41.31.10.80.60.30.20.10.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:40 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     2.33 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.1-0.9-1.5-2-2.1-1.5-0.30.91.92.321.10.2-0.8-1.5-2-2.3-2.1-1.2-0.111.71.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.