Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 8:43AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201905230115;;275800 Fzus51 Kphi 221314 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 914 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-230115- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 914 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft in the late morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until early morning.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 914 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the area today bringing dry and pleasant weather. A warm front will pass through the area tonight with a cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will again be nearby the area Friday and into Saturday. A cold front will likely cross the region late Saturday into early Sunday potentially stalling just our south towards the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221320
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area today bringing dry and
pleasant weather. A warm front will pass through the area tonight
with a cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday morning.

High pressure will again be nearby the area Friday and into
Saturday. A cold front will likely cross the region late Saturday
into early Sunday potentially stalling just our south towards the
start of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
For the 930 am update: areas, mostly inland, are warming up
quicker than previously forecast. Nearly all models have a cold
bias for multiple locations this morning. Consequently, adjusted
temperature forecast up slightly for inland locations today
(generally only a degree or two). Held off on making any drastic
changes as the sea breeze this afternoon will limit heating
through the mid and late afternoon depending on how quickly it
develops and how far inland it reaches.

Previous discussion... Generally expect a quiet day weather-wise
as surface high pressure shifts overhead and then crests the
area this afternoon. The airmass will be quite dry with light
winds an generally seasonal temperatures. Cloud cover will
generally be limited to cirrus. The flow will become more
southerly behind the high later in the day, and given this weak
onshore gradient expect a sea breeze to develop (despite a
somewhat limited thermal contrast) and push inland by late
afternoon. The main effect this may have is cool maxes along the
immediate coast relative to yesterday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Deep southwesterly flow tonight will result in warm air advection
aloft along with fairly robust moisture advection (pwats initially
around 0.5 inches Wednesday increasing to around 1.5 inches by
Thursday am). This combined with weak shortwave energy moving into
the flattening ridge will result in a chance of showers and possibly
a few elevated thunderstorms tonight into Thursday morning.

Currently the greatest elevated instability looks to reside over
eastern pa NW nj and consequently currently have highest pops QPF in
these areas. Think that initially dry low lvls and meager
instability will preclude any strong storms heavy rainers in this
time frame but a few locations could receive a few tenths of rain
under any stronger storms.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Longer term forecast looks on track and minor adjustments made
using latest guidance.

Thursday morning into mid afternoon looks dry with temperatures
rising into the upper 70s or lower 80s. South to southwest low level
flow will transport mid 60s dewpoints into the region by afternoon,
a noticeable increase from early morning readings around 50.

It looks like Thursday late afternoon into the evening is going to
be an active period. Low pressure currently moving northeastward out
of the plains will make a hard turn to east as it nears the western
great lakes. It then turns southeast as it rounds the top of the
southeast ridge. Guidance is in good agreement on the surface low re-
strengthening as it makes this turn, which will be accompanied by
strengthening wind fields. All in all, what appears to develop over
the mid-atlantic Thursday evening is a rather favorable environment
for severe weather, primarily damaging winds and large hail. As
night falls, a nocturnal inversion will probably start to develop,
cutting off the surface based instability. SPC has placed much of
central and eastern pennsylvania in an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms for Thursday with a slight to marginal risk eastward
to the coast.

Behind the front, high pressure will be firmly in control for what
looks like a warm and pleasant day Friday. Dry weather continues for
the overnight.

High pressure should allow dry weather to continue for most of the
day Saturday. A warm frontal passage is likely early on Saturday,
which should set up a warm afternoon away from the coast where a
lingering onshore wind will keep things cooler. By Saturday evening
and overnight, the next cold front will be approaching as the parent
low tracks through ontario. This will bring a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms.

The front should get just far enough south on Sunday to put us in a
true post-frontal air mass. It continues to look warm as well with
winds turning westerly. Mid to upper 80s are likely in most areas.

Very low confidence as model timings are drastically different with
the approach of the next frontal system. Best thinking at the moment
is another fairly warm day on Monday with a late day shower or storm
risk as a front approaches. This would yield drier weather for
Tuesday. However, much fine tuning will need to be done here.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today ...VFR conditions expected through the day. Light winds this
morning will shift to light southerly southwesterly by this
afternoon. These southerly winds may increase, initially at the
coastal sites, in the mid-late afternoon period as a sea breeze
develops and moves inland.

Tonight... MostlyVFR with increasing mid-lvl clouds, although
periods of MVFR rain will be possible particularly at kabe and krdg.

Winds will generally be light favoring a southerly direction.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Most of the daytime Thursday should be
vfr. Thunderstorms possible Thursday evening. Southwesterly winds
shifting to northwesterly Thursday night. Gusts to 20 kt possible
during the day Thursday.

Friday-Friday night... VFR. Northwest wind gusting up to 20 kt,
becoming northeasterly and decreasing Friday night.

Saturday-Saturday night... VFR expected most of the day Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening and overnight.

Winds gradually shifting from east to south on Saturday then south
to west on Saturday night.

Sunday... VFR. Light west-northwest wind.

Marine
Today tonight... Sub-sca conditions expected with northerly
winds this morning shifting to easterly and then
southeasterly southerly by the afternoon. Seas will be around
2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday-Sunday... A period of SCA conditions due to southwesterly
winds gusting near to above 25 kt is possible Thursday afternoon and
into the first part of the overnight. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip currents...

a low risk of rip currents is forecast for today, though a sea
breeze is expected to develop this afternoon.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online. However, it will be in a test phase
through this afternoon. Intermittent outages are possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franklin
near term... Carr johnson
short term... Carr
long term... Franklin
aviation... Carr franklin
marine... Carr franklin
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi54 min WNW 2.9 60°F 1024 hPa43°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi36 min 62°F 57°F1024.6 hPa
44091 25 mi54 min 58°F2 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi36 min NNW 4.1 G 7 63°F 66°F1025 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi48 min N 1.9 G 5.1 61°F 65°F1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi28 minN 710.00 miFair64°F42°F45%1025 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi30 minNNW 610.00 miFair64°F43°F46%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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NW10NW9NW6NW6NW7NW3N4N5NW5CalmCalmCalmW3NW7N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
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Wed -- 01:20 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:51 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.91.91.71.410.60.30.1-00.20.71.21.51.61.51.310.70.40.30.20.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:11 AM EDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:21 PM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:40 PM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.2-0.8-1.6-2.2-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.30.91.71.81.30.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.9-1.8-10.21.32.12.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.