Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:49PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:39AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1207 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late in the evening. Showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1207 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will approach from the west and move through the region tonight into early Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the region on Wednesday followed by high pressure for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181614
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1214 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west and move through the region
tonight into early Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday
through Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the region on
Wednesday followed by high pressure for the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Area of showers and thunderstorms off the central nj shore
finally moving offshore.

Other than some patchy drizzle or sprinkles, looks like dry
conditions mostly on tap for the mid afternoon period. Surface
dewpoints well into the 70s across the region, making it feel
quite oppressive. Some breaks in the clouds are possible, and
should occur in the next hour or so, and this will help
destabilize the atmosphere. Owing to strong heating and
anomalously high moisture content in the boundary layer,
forecast models indicate a moderately unstable environment
(sbcape of 2000-3000 j kg) to sustain strong convective updrafts
this afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate just ahead of
the cold front across the higher terrain in central and
northeastern pa during the mid afternoon. These storms are then
expected to move eastward into eastern pa late this afternoon
and the i-95 corridor this evening. Convection may linger into
the overnight near the coast. Cams have come into much better
agreement with the above- mentioned timing of storms.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of the CWA for
this afternoon and evening. The watch does not include the
southern poconos (higher ffg) and southeastern nj into southern
de (higher FFG and greater uncertainty if storms maintain
intensity to produce excessive rainfall rates by the time they
move into our far southeastern zones late this evening or
overnight). Pwats are forecast to increase to between 2.25-2.5,
which is +2 to +3sd above climo for this time of year. While
storm motion should be fast enough to preclude widespread heavy
rainfall, upstream corfidi vectors show a potential for
convective training that could lead to locally heavy rainfall
totals. With nwp support from cams, there is a potential for
isolated rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches. The flash flood threat
may peak after sunset this evening as convection (and associated
cold pools) starts to weaken with the loss of heating. Storm
motion may subsequently decrease with high rainfall rates (2+
inches per hour) still occurring.

Spc has included most of the forecast area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Have added
damaging winds to the weather grids with that being the primary
severe thunderstorm threat. However, isolated large hail and
even a tornado is possible this afternoon and evening.

Today will feel very muggy with dewpoints rising into the mid 70s
and even near 80f across DELMARVA and far southern nj. Heat indices
are expected to peak into the mid 90s across the urban i-95 corridor
and near 100f in delmarva. Held off on a heat advisory but heat
indices will only be a few degrees below issuance criteria. Humid
conditions continue into tonight, especially along and east of i-95,
where forecast lows are in the mid 70s.

Short term Saturday
The cold front should be offshore by Saturday morning with all
precipitation having come to an end. As the upper trough pushes
through later Saturday, we should really start to see the dry air
filter into the area. Saturday will be a fairly nice day with the
sun shining across the region. Models are showing a slug of moisture
crossing the region as the upper trough moves through. However, it
appears to weaken as it moves over the mountains to our west and
peters out before reaching our area. We will continue to keep the
forecast mostly dry at this time, although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out later in the day Saturday. Best
chance for anything to reach the ground looks to be across the
northwestern zones so have included a slight chance for showers
later Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
High pressure will build in for Sunday and a period of relatively
nice weather should continue for the start of the week with the high
shifting offshore on Monday. Another cold front will approach the
region from the west on Tuesday, crossing the area on Wednesday.

Models continue to show a surface trough developing on Tuesday in
advance of the cold front. This trough, combined with a shortwave
moving through the mid levels, will spark off some convection on
Tuesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be accompany the
cold front on Wednesday, with the storms ending from west to east on
Wednesday evening. A few showers may linger early Thursday, mainly
along the coast. High pressure, accompanied by some cooler air, will
build down from canada and across our area for the end of the
week.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MVFR patchy ifr conditions slow to scatter out, but should lift
toVFR early in the afternoon.

Showers and storms are expected to redevelop after 18z this
afternoon mainly in vicinity of western terminals (abe-rdg),
then move eastward through the i-95 terminals this evening
(between 23-03z) and eventually our eastern terminals (miv-acy)
late in the evening. A period of ifr restrictions are likely
when these storms move through.

Winds will predominately be out of the south today and tonight.

Speeds will generally be 10 kt or less. However, they could increase
to above 10 kt for a period this afternoon with occasional gusts up
to 20 kt possible. Much stronger winds are possible with storms.

Outlook...

Saturday... Fog possible early. Otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions
expected. Northwest to west winds around 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Westerly winds around 10
knots or less.

Monday and Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Southerly winds
around 10 knots or less.

Marine
A SCA was issued for the coastal atlantic waters and delaware bay
from late this morning through this evening. Despite less than ideal
mixing profiles in southerly flow (warm air above the relatively
cooler waters), 25 kt winds are only 200-300 ft off the deck. Deeper
mixing on land could easily transport these higher winds down to the
surface in our nearshore waters. Seas in the coastal waters are
forecast to increase to around 5 ft late this afternoon and evening.

Strong thunderstorms mainly this evening could contain locally gusty
winds, requiring special marine warnings.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected on the area waters through Tuesday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
forecast for today for de and nj shore, given increasing southerly
winds and seas.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for paz060>062-
070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for njz001-
007>010-012-013-015>019.

De... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for dez001-002.

Md... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Klein mps
short term... Meola
long term... Meola
aviation... Klein meola mps
marine... Klein meola mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi56 min S 7 81°F 1012 hPa78°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi38 min 78°F 79°F1012.5 hPa
44091 25 mi26 min 76°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi38 min SW 4.1 G 7 78°F 76°F1011.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi50 min 79°F 77°F1011 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi30 minSSW 69.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity78°F77°F97%1012.4 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi32 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast83°F78°F85%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5E9E7SE7SE7SE6SE4SE4SE4SE6S4S4S4S4S4S7S6S5S8S8SW7S6SE3S6
1 day agoW44NW7SE5--SE5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E7E6E6Calm
2 days agoE3SE4CalmSE5CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4NW5NW6--NW7N55W9

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.10.20.71.21.51.71.51.310.60.40.100.20.71.31.8221.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:10 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     3.05 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.8-1.8-0.31.22.22.31.70.7-0.3-1.2-2-2.6-2.6-1.7-0.11.42.732.51.50.4-0.7-1.7-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.