Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:11PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:49AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 632 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers likely until late afternoon. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 632 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through our region this evening. The boundary is forecast to stall to our south on Monday. Weak low pressure is expected to move from the eastern great lakes to new england on Tuesday and Tuesday night and it should pull another cold front through our region on Wednesday. The front is anticipated to stall to our south as weak high pressure influences our weather on Thursday and Friday. The boundary is expected to return northward as a warm front over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202255
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
655 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through
our region this evening. The boundary is forecast to stall to
our south on Monday. Weak low pressure is expected to move from
the eastern great lakes to new england on Tuesday and Tuesday
night and it should pull another cold front through our region
on Wednesday. The front is anticipated to stall to our south as
weak high pressure influences our weather on Thursday and
Friday. The boundary is expected to return northward as a warm
front over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of mid afternoon, cold front is beginning to push southward
into the CWA but still north of the i-95 corridor. Ahead of it,
some showers have developed in the unstable airmass and are
moving through portions of southern nj. No lightning yet but ml
capes over the southern part of the CWA are in the 500-1000 j kg
range so lightning remains possible through the afternoon with
convective cells. The aformentioned front will move southward
through the latter part of the afternoon and be across the
delmarva extending eastward across southern nj by this evening.

Additional showers with the chance of storms will remain
possible ahead of it with the activity tending to becoming
confined to areas mainly near and especially south of the i-95
corridor through the latter part of this afternoon as the
airmass starts to dry out behind the front as it passes
southward. I don't expect any severe weather but brief heavy
downpours will be possible and given that diurnal mixing alone
is bringing some wind gusts to around 20-25 mph it's possible
some gusts of 30 to 35 mph could occur with some of these
showers or storms.

Heading through this evening, showers diminish across the south
by mid evening as the front continues to push southward
clearing the coast. Beyond this time expect skies becoming
mainly clear with light winds out of the north as high pressure
noses down and advects in cooler and drier air. Given the
saturated ground, some fog formation definitely possible
overnight but the limiting factors will be the dry air advection
and winds that may be just a bit too strong in the boundary
layer for widespread fog. For this reason, limited fog in the
grids to patchy across a few limited areas based on output from
fog tool. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 50s
north to the low to mid 60s south.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Finally a quiet, dry day on the way for Monday. High pressure
will crest over the area leading to plenty of sunshine, light
winds, and comfortable humidity levels with any fog quickly
burning off by mid morning. There will be some high clouds
around... Especially over eastern pa during the afternoon hours
but any precip with the next wave stays west of the forecast
area through the day. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s except low 70s over the southern poconos.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
We will not be making much change to the forecast for the long-
term period. It continues to appear as though we will receive
some precipitation from Monday night into Tuesday night,
followed by a drying trend for Wednesday through Friday.

Moisture is expected to return over the holiday weekend.

We should remain on the periphery of a mid level long wave
trough over eastern canada during the work week.

Weak low pressure is forecast to pass across the southern and
eastern great lakes on Monday night and Tuesday. Moisture will
be on the increase ahead of the system. We will continue to
indicate a chance of showers and an increasing potential for
thunder at that time.

A short wave trough is expected to drop southeastward toward
our region on Tuesday night. The trough and its associated
surface cold front are forecast to arrive early on Wednesday. We
will continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Tuesday night ahead of the frontal boundary.

Dry air is anticipated to build down from the north for the
period from Wednesday through Friday.

The mid level long wave trough is expected to drift eastward
over the weekend, allowing a ridge to take hold over the western
north atlantic. The resulting flow is forecast to bring an
increase in moisture along with the potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the holiday weekend.

Temperatures for the period from Monday night through Sunday
are expected to be typical for this time of the year with highs
mainly in the 70s and lower 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with winds becoming more northerly or even
northeasterly by daybreak. Speeds generally under 10 kts. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR with winds veering from northeast to east during
the late morning to southeast south by afternoon. Speeds
generally 10 kts or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions varying betweenVFR and MVFR. Brief
periods of ifr may occur in precipitation.

Wednesday through Friday... MainlyVFR. Some late night and
early morning visibility restrictions are possible.

Marine
Winds have been slow to come up but we keep the small craft
advisory in place over the ocean waters until 2z as there will
still likely be some gusts to 25 knots late this afternoon into
this evening. Also, seas should remain around 5 ft. Expect
winds seas to diminish below SCA conditions by the overnight
hours with sub SCA conditions then persisting through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Iovino
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi100 min SE 1.9 69°F 1015 hPa66°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi52 min 67°F 60°F1016.4 hPa
44091 25 mi40 min 56°F5 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi52 min NNE 4.1 G 8.9 76°F 61°F1016.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi94 min WNW 2.9 G 7 78°F 61°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi74 minNW 510.00 miFair77°F64°F66%1016.3 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi76 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F71°F82%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S7S7SW7S9SW8SW11SW10SW10SW11SW14
G21
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SW9W11NW9W5NW5NW4
1 day agoNE13
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E8NE9NE6E8E5NE10E8
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E7E9E8E7E443SE3E3E3CalmS5S6
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmNE4NE4NE6E11
G20
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E9NE12E14
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:44 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:35 PM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.61.921.91.51.10.70.40.1-000.40.91.41.71.71.51.20.90.50.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     -3.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.10.9-0.3-1.3-2.1-2.8-3.1-2.5-1.10.41.82.52.21.40.4-0.6-1.5-2.1-2.5-2.2-1.10.51.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.