Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sheridan, CO
March 28, 2024 11:02 PM MDT (05:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM Sunset 7:22 PM Moonrise 10:05 PM Moonset 7:14 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 290232 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 832 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow and minor travel impacts across the northern mountains tonight through Friday night. More significant accumulations in the Rabbit Ears Pass and Park Range, and lighter accumulations in the I-70 Mountain Corridor.
- A few showers spill onto the plains Friday afternoon and Friday night.
- Next storm system late Sunday into Monday night with mountain snow, and a mix of rain and snow likely for the plains. Mostly light but there could be some impact for the mountains and foothills.
UPDATE
Issued at 817 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows moisture entering western Colorado and starting to make its way into the forecast area. Aside from a few adjustments to the sky grids, the current forecast looks to be in good standing so will let it ride.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Satellite shows mid and high clouds increasing across Colorado in advance of the next shortwave. This disturbance is now hitting northern Utah as seen in enhanced radar returns, and coincident with lift and frontogenesis in the left exit region of the upper jet. This feature will shift eastward into Colorado this evening, with snow spreading into the northern mountains. There should be a short period of healthy snowfall with snowfall rates of an inch/hour or more. That heavier snow would be due to the ingredients, such as instability (7-8 C/km lapse rates), forcing, and relatively high water content (700-500 mb specific humidity near 2.5 g/kg and Integrated Vapor Transport near 2 standardized anomalies). That band will gradually shift southward overnight into the I-70 Mountain Corridor as the upper level jet does, but intensity is expected to decrease somewhat as frontogenesis gradually weakens. While that area is also not favored by west/southwest flow aloft, this would be the season for more convective related snowfall, and the location of the upper level speed max is concerning for perhaps heavier snow than forecast.
For now, we've beefed up the I-70 Corridor snow forecast a little, while issuing a Winter Weather Advisory farther north where the best combination of orographics and dynamics come together. We'll run that Advisory into Friday night as the jet axis pushes back northward taking the bulk of snow with it. Whatever the case, be prepared for snowy travel conditions in the high country and slick roads especially at night/early morning and over the higher mountain passes.
For the plains, we can't rule out an isolated shower drifting out of the mountains given the jet proximity and mid level instability tonight. However, most of these should hold off until we further destabilize on Friday afternoon. It's getting to be that time of year again, so an isolated rumble of thunder or two is certainly possible as we head into Friday afternoon in/near the mountains. Temperatures on Friday will cool a few degrees and be near or just below normal.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A few changes for the long-term forecast package mainly on Saturday through Monday night. A shortwave continues Friday night ushering light to moderate snow across the mountains and valleys.
Southwest flow could hinder a few spots from receiving additional amounts but overall, snowfall should continue through Saturday morning. Highest snowfall totals and impacts of snow covered roads would likely be Rabbit Ears Pass, and parts of Middle Park. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory continues until 6 AM MDT Saturday morning.
The last round of embedded shortwaves arrives Saturday across our higher peaks. Southwesterly flow should bring Pacific moisture cut off from the main trough located in on the western US coast.
This will lead to light snow showers for area above I-70 for the mountains and valleys. This forecast introduced a slight decrease in QPF values along the Park Range Saturday afternoon due to the potential for warming. NAM indicates warm air advection especially across the urban corridor and plains. A few foothill areas such as Larimer and Boulder counties may experience a rain snow mix but will keep a slight chance (20-30%) of scattered rain showers for the plains along the Wyoming border due to the assistance of the upper jet.
Uncertainty lingers for the next upcoming system Sunday through Tuesday morning. Given this upper level system has now switched to a closed low instead of an open trough, there could lead to increasing chances of snow along the northeastern plains and Palmer Divide but that will depend a few mesoscale factors such as how cold are surface temperatures Monday afternoon. Considering the uncertain, will focus this discussion on key points that have higher forecast confidence.
Sunday, as the low approaches, winds shift west and orographic lift will bring light to moderate snow for areas above 8k ft and the mountain valleys. Rain showers are possible for the urban corridor and plains through Sunday evening. Generally, widespread rain showers seem likely for the urban corridor and plains Monday afternoon. The backside of cyclone will likely shift our winds northerly which may allow for a low level jet to lead to upslope flow during Monday late afternoon through Monday night. This may result in high snowfall amounts for the southern foothills Monday night.
By Monday night, ECMWF and GFS are extremely different solutions as GFS keeps lingering widespread showers through Tuesday morning.
Without much forcing, this outcome seems unlikely thus this forecast update keeps NBM PoPs ending Monday night at midnight. By the middle of next week, above normal temperatures are expected to return.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Winds have been tricky this afternoon but it looks like they have settled in to a northerly component for KDEN for the moment.
There is a boundary just to the north that could shift KDEN to a gusty westerly if it makes it a little further south, if not, the northerly should hang on before transitioning to a southwesterly drainage overnight. Winds will become northeasterly in the early morning as a weak cold front passes through. All airports will have a chance for showers in the afternoon that could produce some gusty northerly outflow beginning around 19Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly across the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains Saturday afternoon. Relative humidities drop near 16-20 percent. Southwest winds could produce wind gusts up to 25-35 mph leading to fire spread if one were to occur.
With the potential for wetting rain late Sunday afternoon, this could ease fire weather concerns for the same areas through Sunday evening.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ031.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 832 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow and minor travel impacts across the northern mountains tonight through Friday night. More significant accumulations in the Rabbit Ears Pass and Park Range, and lighter accumulations in the I-70 Mountain Corridor.
- A few showers spill onto the plains Friday afternoon and Friday night.
- Next storm system late Sunday into Monday night with mountain snow, and a mix of rain and snow likely for the plains. Mostly light but there could be some impact for the mountains and foothills.
UPDATE
Issued at 817 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows moisture entering western Colorado and starting to make its way into the forecast area. Aside from a few adjustments to the sky grids, the current forecast looks to be in good standing so will let it ride.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Satellite shows mid and high clouds increasing across Colorado in advance of the next shortwave. This disturbance is now hitting northern Utah as seen in enhanced radar returns, and coincident with lift and frontogenesis in the left exit region of the upper jet. This feature will shift eastward into Colorado this evening, with snow spreading into the northern mountains. There should be a short period of healthy snowfall with snowfall rates of an inch/hour or more. That heavier snow would be due to the ingredients, such as instability (7-8 C/km lapse rates), forcing, and relatively high water content (700-500 mb specific humidity near 2.5 g/kg and Integrated Vapor Transport near 2 standardized anomalies). That band will gradually shift southward overnight into the I-70 Mountain Corridor as the upper level jet does, but intensity is expected to decrease somewhat as frontogenesis gradually weakens. While that area is also not favored by west/southwest flow aloft, this would be the season for more convective related snowfall, and the location of the upper level speed max is concerning for perhaps heavier snow than forecast.
For now, we've beefed up the I-70 Corridor snow forecast a little, while issuing a Winter Weather Advisory farther north where the best combination of orographics and dynamics come together. We'll run that Advisory into Friday night as the jet axis pushes back northward taking the bulk of snow with it. Whatever the case, be prepared for snowy travel conditions in the high country and slick roads especially at night/early morning and over the higher mountain passes.
For the plains, we can't rule out an isolated shower drifting out of the mountains given the jet proximity and mid level instability tonight. However, most of these should hold off until we further destabilize on Friday afternoon. It's getting to be that time of year again, so an isolated rumble of thunder or two is certainly possible as we head into Friday afternoon in/near the mountains. Temperatures on Friday will cool a few degrees and be near or just below normal.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A few changes for the long-term forecast package mainly on Saturday through Monday night. A shortwave continues Friday night ushering light to moderate snow across the mountains and valleys.
Southwest flow could hinder a few spots from receiving additional amounts but overall, snowfall should continue through Saturday morning. Highest snowfall totals and impacts of snow covered roads would likely be Rabbit Ears Pass, and parts of Middle Park. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory continues until 6 AM MDT Saturday morning.
The last round of embedded shortwaves arrives Saturday across our higher peaks. Southwesterly flow should bring Pacific moisture cut off from the main trough located in on the western US coast.
This will lead to light snow showers for area above I-70 for the mountains and valleys. This forecast introduced a slight decrease in QPF values along the Park Range Saturday afternoon due to the potential for warming. NAM indicates warm air advection especially across the urban corridor and plains. A few foothill areas such as Larimer and Boulder counties may experience a rain snow mix but will keep a slight chance (20-30%) of scattered rain showers for the plains along the Wyoming border due to the assistance of the upper jet.
Uncertainty lingers for the next upcoming system Sunday through Tuesday morning. Given this upper level system has now switched to a closed low instead of an open trough, there could lead to increasing chances of snow along the northeastern plains and Palmer Divide but that will depend a few mesoscale factors such as how cold are surface temperatures Monday afternoon. Considering the uncertain, will focus this discussion on key points that have higher forecast confidence.
Sunday, as the low approaches, winds shift west and orographic lift will bring light to moderate snow for areas above 8k ft and the mountain valleys. Rain showers are possible for the urban corridor and plains through Sunday evening. Generally, widespread rain showers seem likely for the urban corridor and plains Monday afternoon. The backside of cyclone will likely shift our winds northerly which may allow for a low level jet to lead to upslope flow during Monday late afternoon through Monday night. This may result in high snowfall amounts for the southern foothills Monday night.
By Monday night, ECMWF and GFS are extremely different solutions as GFS keeps lingering widespread showers through Tuesday morning.
Without much forcing, this outcome seems unlikely thus this forecast update keeps NBM PoPs ending Monday night at midnight. By the middle of next week, above normal temperatures are expected to return.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Winds have been tricky this afternoon but it looks like they have settled in to a northerly component for KDEN for the moment.
There is a boundary just to the north that could shift KDEN to a gusty westerly if it makes it a little further south, if not, the northerly should hang on before transitioning to a southwesterly drainage overnight. Winds will become northeasterly in the early morning as a weak cold front passes through. All airports will have a chance for showers in the afternoon that could produce some gusty northerly outflow beginning around 19Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly across the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains Saturday afternoon. Relative humidities drop near 16-20 percent. Southwest winds could produce wind gusts up to 25-35 mph leading to fire spread if one were to occur.
With the potential for wetting rain late Sunday afternoon, this could ease fire weather concerns for the same areas through Sunday evening.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ031.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 13 sm | 69 min | SW 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 18°F | 29% | 29.80 | |
KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO | 16 sm | 27 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 23°F | 39% | 29.78 | |
KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 16 sm | 64 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 14°F | 25% | 29.79 | |
KEIK ERIE MUNI,CO | 23 sm | 27 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 25°F | 49% | 29.76 | |
KDEN DENVER INTL,CO | 24 sm | 69 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 21°F | 34% | 29.80 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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