Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harvey Cedars, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:35 AM EDT (07:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 12:28PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201905261915;;476027 Fzus51 Kphi 260714 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-261915- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers early. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning. A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harvey Cedars , NJ
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location: 39.7, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260419
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1219 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue to lift through the area as high
pressure moves further offshore. A chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms returns as a cold front passes through the region
tomorrow afternoon and evening. A rather unsettled pattern
through next week as a series of disturbances travel across the
great lakes into the northeast with warm weather otherwise
prevailing.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1230 update:
remnant showers associated with earlier convection are currently
moving through parts of pa nj , however these are generally
decaying with little impacts outside of some light rain. Further
south greater elevated instability is sustaining thunderstorms
over northern DELMARVA and these will move into S nj within the
next hour or so. Main threat with these will be lightning, and
brief heavy downpours as near surface stability should keep
convective winds down.

Previous discussion:
showers and thunderstorms extended from central pennsylvania
down into west virginia around 9:30 pm. A mid level impulse
associated with the precipitation will continue to work its way
eastward, along with a surface warm front. The mid level feature
is expected to pass over our region between about midnight and
3:00 am with the warm front passing closer to dawn.

We are anticipating an increasing potential for showers and
scattered thunderstorms with most of the precipitation that
falls in our region occurring between about 11:00 pm and 4:00
am. Any linger showers and thunderstorms should be off the coast
by 5:00 am.

The mid level impulse should keep the showers and thunderstorms
somewhat intact by the time they reach our forecast area, even
with the loss of daytime heating. However, the relatively stable
conditions in our region should help to weaken the showers and
thunderstorms a bit.

A south wind around 5 to 10 mph this evening is forecast to
become southwest to west late tonight. Low temperatures are
expected to favor the 60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Tomorrow could be the warmest day of the year so far for much
of the area. With the warm, moist air mass in place,
temperatures near 90 will be possible for the delaware valley
and coastal plains. Further west, highs will only be a few
degrees lower in the upper 80s.

Unsurprisingly, with this airmass in place, there is a chance
for thunderstorms across the region. A trough will set up, and
remain over our region through the day. Confluence along this
trough could serve as the focus for convective initiation.

Additionally, if we do have low clouds overnight, differential
heating boundaries could develop Sunday morning as the low
clouds erode. Initially the mid levels (from 800 to 600 mb) will
be quite dry which should limit convective initiation, at least
initially. Many models are depicting little, if any, qpf,
because of a combination of the potential for a cap into late
afternoon, and the fact that there is limited synoptic scale
lift until much later when the cold front approaches. Given that
much of the lift may come with mesoscale features (which would
not be picked up by the coarser resolution models), forecast
pops are higher than most guidance, with a general 30 to 40
percent across the region.

If thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, there will be a
marginal risk for severe storms, especially in DELMARVA which
should have more unstable air in place. If any storms become
severe, the primary hazard would be damaging winds, as wind
shear in the lowest km will be too low for much of a tornado
threat, and the very warm boundary layer could limit the hail
threat.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Overview:
the all-too-familiar pattern continues, at least to start the
upcoming week featuring a stubborn longwave trough over the
western u.S. And a ridge across the southeast. A series of
shortwave troughs will circumnavigate the ridge to our south
over the beginning portion of the week, bringing several chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Again, placement and strength of
convection over the plains will have an influence on the exact
placement of the quasi-stationary front that looks to set itself
up over and just to the north of our cwa. In other news, warm
and humid weather looks to arrive just in time for the
unofficial start to the summer season. By Thursday, there are
signs that the pattern may begin to break as a shortwave trough
begins to amplify a developing longwave trough across eastern
canada.

Dailies:
a weak impulse moves across the region along the stalled front
on Monday, bringing the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Seasonable with highs near 80.

Tuesday, a stronger shortwave trough and surface low moves
along the front just to our north, thus a higher likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms. Similar temperatures to Monday.

The front remains draped across the northern half of the cwa
Wednesday, thus there is a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially for the lehigh valley, southern
poconos, and NW nj. Highs will be noticeably warmer, perhaps the
warmest this year with many places topping out near or just
above 90, with the exception of areas remaining in precipitation
across the northern portion of the cwa.

Another warm day Thursday as the front looks to remain north of
most of the area, but another shortwave trough and surface low
look to push a cold front across the great lakes and into the
mid-atlantic, thus ending our possible two-day spell in the 90s.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as
the cold front moves through the region. There is the chance a
few of these could be on the stronger side, so will need to
monitor this as the week progresses. Highs may be a few degrees
cooler depending on cloud and precipitation coverage.

Slightly cooler weather returns to close out the week on Friday
and Saturday as the cold front moves offshore. Highs look to
sit near 80 with just a slight chance for a few scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation 04z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... MainlyVFR through about 03z. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms between about 03z and 08z will produce MVFR ifr
conditions at some locations. Lingering MVFR conditions are
expected after 08z. South wind around 8 to 12 knots becoming
southwest 4 to 8 knots.

Sunday... Lingering MVFR conditions through about 12z, otherwise
vfr with scattered clouds. There is a chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms but their timing and potential
coverage is a low confidence forecast. They will not be
mentioned in the taf. West wind increasing to 8 to 12 knots with
gusts around 20 knots.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR expected with light and variable winds trending a
northerly direction.

Tuesday... GenerallyVFR, though cig and vsby restriction
possible with showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts to 15 knots possible.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR, more cig and vsby restrictions are
possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially to
the north. Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots turning more
southerly with gusts to 15 knots possible.

Thursday...VFR with restrictions to MVFR or even ifr with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds out of the southwest
5 to 10 knots, with gusts to 20 knots possible.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria tonight and Sunday. Southerly gusts above 20
kt are possible especially on the southern atlantic coastal
waters late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday... Sub SCA conditions expected with
south to southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots. A few gusts to 20
knots possible, especially across the northern atlantic zones
Tuesday afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday... SCA conditions possible with seas 3 to 5 feet. Winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 18 knots possible.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low
through this evening. The low risk may continue into the day
tomorrow.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Davis
near term... Carr iovino
short term... Johnson
long term... Davis
aviation... Davis iovino
marine... Davis johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi66 min SSE 6 63°F 1016 hPa62°F
44091 21 mi36 min 59°F4 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 28 mi42 min 63°F 60°F1015.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi42 min W 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 66°F1015.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi60 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 66°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi40 minSW 610.00 miOvercast63°F63°F100%1015.6 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Loveladies Harbor, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Loveladies Harbor
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Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.40.40.50.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Sun -- 01:06 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:47 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:47 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.40.80.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.30.411.20.90.4-0.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.