Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harvey Cedars, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:57 AM EST (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 3:08PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt until late afternoon, then diminishing to 25 to 30 kt late. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of snow showers early.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late in the evening, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in sw swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of snow in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow and rain late.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of snow early in the morning, then a chance of snow showers late in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of snow and rain showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 342 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will slide across to the south of the region today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and Friday. A low pressure system will move up the mid atlantic coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will affect the region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harvey Cedars , NJ
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location: 39.7, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 130849
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
349 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will slide across to the south of the region
today. A clipper system will cross the region late tonight into
Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night and
Friday. A low pressure system will move up the mid atlantic
coast on Friday, remaining well offshore. A brief return to high
pressure is expected for the weekend. Another system will
affect the region early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The winds are howling this morning as strong cold-air advection
upstream of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday
continues. Boundary-layer mixing and advection have been sufficient
enough to generate advisory-level gusts near delaware bay throughout
the night, and I expect these to continue through the morning hours.

There may be a need to extend the advisory a few hours based on
forecast soundings (accounting for a low bias in the model-forecast
gusts so far), but confidence is rather low since the trend is
distinctly downward with the winds during the afternoon. I will be
watching wind observations closely the next few hours to determine
if the advisory needs an areal expansion as well. A distinct surge
in the winds occurred between 10 pm and midnight, which was strongly
coincident with the most intense pressure rise tendencies, but i
expect another surge near daybreak as diurnal heating begins and the
surface pressure gradient increases. A particular concern is the
higher terrain in the northern cwa, which the models are
highlighting as nearing advisory-level this morning. Winds should
begin decreasing during the mid and late afternoon hours, but will
probably remain gusty through sunset.

Other main question today is the potential for occasional snow
showers this morning in the southern poconos and adjacent far
northwest new jersey. Models have so far overdone the snow showers
in this area (with model biases with snow accumulation at least on
the order of one inch on average during the past 24 hours). A rather
strong midlevel vort MAX moves southeastward through the northern
mid-atlantic this morning, so felt the need to retain some pops in
this area, but snow accumulations should remain below a half inch,
if anything occurs at all.

Given the winds and cold-air advection (the latter of which will be
weakening through the day), today will be uncomfortably cold. I
nudged temperatures downward across the area, particularly given the
somewhat colder look to statistical MOS output with the 00z data. In
general, I kept temperatures about a degree or two below consensus
of ecs mav met but did throw in hi-res model output for hourly
temperatures as well given their much better performance overnight
versus the statistical guidance (a typical result in rapid changes
to temperature regimes). Wind chills will remain in the single
digits in the poconos (and start below zero this morning), with the
rest of the area struggling to reach 20.

Clouds may hang around the northern CWA for much of the day, but the
rest of the area should see some sunshine. Increasing cloudiness
near sunset will be possible as the next system makes a rapid
approach to the area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Clipper low should be entering the mid-atlantic region at the start
of the period, just downstream of a pivoting midlevel vort MAX in
the great lakes region. The surface low will weaken as it approaches
the spine of the appalachians and redevelop offshore during the
overnight period, which suggests that the attendant precipitation
shield should be weakening as it approaches the CWA and
strengthening once it leaves the CWA (sorry, snow lovers).

Nevertheless, there will be snow overnight, but the combination of
waning dynamics, dry antecedent near-surface air, and orographic
shadowing should preclude snow amounts from exceeding a couple
inches to the northwest of the fall line and should generally be
under an inch to the southeast. Little if any snowfall is forecast
south of the mason-dixon line. The snow should enter the region late
in the evening and be on the decrease by daybreak. Despite the light
amounts, the timing (and the subfreezing temperatures) suggests that
there will be impacts with the morning commute on Thursday. For
messaging purposes, it is important to stress that the lack of a
winter weather advisory (owing to light snow amounts) does not
equate to a lack of impacts. Some slick roads and treacherous travel
can be expected should the snow materialize as currently forecast.

Temperatures will not fall much from highs on Wednesday but should
drop a little bit during the evening hours, especially before the
denser cloud cover invades the region. Temperatures may reach their
minima prior to midnight before a slow rise in the warm-air
advection preceding the surface low's trek redevelopment offshore
through the night.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
An unsettled pattern continues through the extended period with
several waves of low pressure slated to move through the region.

Thursday... The clipper system quickly crosses the region early
Thursday, along with a strong shortwave. Snow will be falling early
and may make for a slick morning commute. The snow will start to
taper off through Thursday morning and we should see it end by early
afternoon across the forecast area. Winds may be gusty along the
coast, especially in the morning, but should subside through the day
as the low moves further offshore. Daytime highs will be fairly
cold across the area. Highs will range from the lower 20s across the
southern poconos and northwest new jersey to lower 40s across
southern delaware and extreme southern new jersey.

Thursday night through Friday night... High pressure will make its
way into the area overnight and cross the region on Friday. A
coastal low develops along the carolina coast and makes its way up
the mid atlantic coast. Additionally, a couple of shortwaves will
rotate through the area on Friday. The models continue to show this
system remaining offshore and out of our area. However, so moisture
may reach into our area and we could see some snow fall towards the
afternoon and into the evening. Some mixing along the coast will be
possible but it looks cold enough that the majority of the area will
see only snow fall. Snow should end from west to east Friday night
and fairly quickly as the system moves further away from the area
and out to sea.

Saturday through Sunday morning... High pressure will slide across
the eastern united states on Saturday, bringing us a nice day of
quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through at least
Sunday morning. Warmer air will start to make its way towards the
region this weekend but we won't start to feel the difference until
Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s on
Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday... Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. The models diverge
with how to handle another clipper system to our north Sunday and a
developing low to our south. For now, will continue to mention the
chance for precipitation starting Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Warm air will move into the region in the southwesterly flow and we
may see a period of rain or mixed precipitation through the region.

Temperatures look to remain cold over the northwestern zones and
likely to remain all snow there. Plenty of uncertainty exists
bringing lower confidence through this period.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with 270-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 10
to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Very high confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with 260-310 degree wind directions. Speeds 12 to 25
kts with gusts frequently at or above 30 kts, especially in the
morning. Very high confidence.

Wednesday night... Sub-vfr CIGS vsbys should be expected with snow
likely to affect rdg abe most of the night with potential impacts at
ttn pne phl ilg as well. Runway accumulations may occur, but should
be around an inch or less. Winds will begin from the southwest
around 10 kts but should become light and variable from late evening
onward. Medium confidence in CIGS vsbys (with low confidence in
occurrence timing of snow); high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR or lower conditions possible in snow through
Thursday afternoon. Snow should clear out by 18z and then mainly
vfr conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 15
knots. Confidence: moderate
Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in
snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Confidence: low to moderate
Saturday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots possible with higher gusts, mainly at kacy and
kmiv. Confidence: low to moderate
Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions in
snow rain showers possible Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds around
5 to 10 knots. Confidence: low

Marine
Gale warning continues for all of the waters today, though I did end
the gale warning at 6 pm for the delaware atlantic coastal waters
given faster forecast timing of winds decreasing late this
afternoon. Gales are in full swing currently, with gusts in lower
delaware bay not far from storm warning criteria. These gusts
(forecast to remain just shy of storm warning thresholds) should
peak this morning and decrease rather quickly this afternoon.

At least small craft advisory conditions are expected tonight as
winds become more southwesterly in advance of the next system. Gusts
may reach gale-force again in the delaware coastal waters after
midnight, but confidence is rather low at this time. Some snow may
develop, generally after midnight and primarily for the new jersey
coastal waters, with visibility restrictions likely should the snow
materialize.

Outlook...

Thursday ... Small craft advisory conditions continue through
Thursday. Both winds and seas are expected to drop through the day,
falling below SCA criteria by Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Friday... Sub-advisory conditions are
expected.

Friday night through Saturday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible. West to northwest winds will gusts around 25 knots
possible. Seas will increase and near 5 feet.

Sunday... Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds may near 25
knots and seas may near 5 feet late Sunday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for njz021>025.

De... Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz450>453.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz430-431-454-
455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Meola
aviation... Cms meola
marine... Cms meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi87 min W 8.9 20°F 1003 hPa1°F
44091 21 mi27 min 51°F8 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 28 mi39 min 22°F 46°F1003.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi39 min WNW 14 G 22 22°F 38°F1003 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi81 min WNW 16 G 20 21°F 40°F1002.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi61 minW 22 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy20°F5°F52%1002.6 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4SE6S6S6SW8W13
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1 day agoCalmSW4SW4SW6W8W12
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W6W8NW7W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3
2 days agoW8W8W6W8W9W10W11W9W10W9W5CalmCalmSW4SW6SW5SW6SW6SW5SW4SW4W4W6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Loveladies Harbor, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Loveladies Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:13 PM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1000.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.10.100.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:05 AM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:12 AM EST     -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:32 PM EST     1.76 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:31 PM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.70.61.72.11.91.30.6-0.3-1.1-1.9-2.4-2.2-1.3-0.211.71.71.30.7-0.1-0.8-1.6-2.2-2.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.