Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday January 18, 2018 10:49 PM MST (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 7:46PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 190414
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
914 pm mst Thu jan 18 2018

Update
Issued at 914 pm mst Thu jan 18 2018
no changes to the forecast package this evening. High level
cloudiness continues streaming over the state in the anti-cyclonic
westerly flow pattern aloft. Temperatures are staying warmer due
to the lack of radiational cooling under the cloudy skies.

Pressure gradients across eastern colorado are weak as lee trough
remains in place.

A quick look ahead at the evening run from the NAM shows this
weekend's storm to still be on track. The upper level circulation
is forecast to follow a preferred track over the four corners
while surface cyclogenesis occurs over southeastern colorado. A
surface cold front moving over northeast colorado Saturday evening
will usher in a period of snowfall that continues through a good
part of Sunday. The amount of moisture available for the storm
system seems to be the last piece of the puzzle that need to fall
into place.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 255 pm mst Thu jan 18 2018
ahead of the incoming trough, increasing mid level westerly flow
is expected as the ridge axis moves east of colorado. This will
allow for the formation of a mountain wave this evening continuing
though much of Friday. Wind gusts are forecast to reach about 70
mph over the higher mountain passes. Lighter winds will likely be
present through the lower foothills due to the lack of mountain
top stability.

Clouds will increase as moisture continues moving over the ridge
into the state. Simulated satellite and model winds indicate a
mountain wave developing later this evening through the day
Friday. This slight warming tend is expected to continue through
Friday.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 255 pm mst Thu jan 18 2018
increasing cyclonic energy produced by deepening southern stream
upper trough still progged to track almost due east over the lower
great basin and four corners region Saturday and Saturday night,
then east-northeast across colorado on Sunday. Models show the
trough closing off and intensifying over southeast colorado Sunday
morning as per q-g and instability fields. Gfs, ECMWF and NAM all
indicate a 35-45 neg q-g bulls eye over nern colorado Sunday
morning. Models also indicate a southerly 700-500 mb flow over
eastern colorado Saturday night through Sunday morning with the
longitudinal oriented upper low. This flow is not all that
favorable for generating heavy orographic precipitation along the
front range, though it continues to advect moisture up into the
area. Meanwhile, pre-frontal nely low-level flow will be well
under way by late Saturday night following the passage of a cold
front Saturday evening. NAM and GFS show the front reaching the
denver area not long after 00z Sunday. ECMWF and canadian models
delay its arrival closer to midnight. When this cold front
arrives will determine when the rain and or rain snow mix shifts
over to all snow on the plains. Right now, believe precip within
the i-25 corridor will change over to snow between 02z-05z, and
not too long after that farther out across the plains.

Snowfall in the high country is expected to be most intense Saturday
night and Sunday morning with best q-g ascent and deepest moisture
over the area. High country snow water ratios in the 13:1 to 17:1
range to start out Saturday night and end around 20:1 on Sunday
with the colder air advecting in behind the trough. Certainly too
early to reliably predict snow amounts, but it's not out of the
question many high mtn areas could see storm totals well over a
half foot.

On the plains, as the upper trough passes overhead on Sunday, low-
level flow is progged to shift from northeasterly early in the
morn to northwesterly by afternoon. The northeast flow would
favor snow production along the front range and western sections
of the palmer divide where we could see several inches of snow
accumulate by midday. That includes the greater denver metro area.

The shift to a northwest sfc-700 mb flow will favor the elevated
rangeland to the east-southeast of the denver metro area where we
could see a few hours of moderate to heavy snowfall late
morning early afternoon. However, it's in areas east of there
where strengthening circulation around a tightly wound 700-500 mb
cyclone could create the biggest weather concern. Still early to
hoist any winter weather highlights out there for snow and blowing
snow. But, certainly something to monitor closely over the next
24 hours especially if models move this system slower and track it
northeastward as they now indicate. That said, could see snowfall
lingering on the northeast plains through Sunday evening, while
conditions quickly improve in the mtns and along the front range
with a drier northwesterly downslope flow.

On Monday, passage of a shortwave ridge should clear skies, warm
temperatures, and drop humidities. However, temps remain below
average. Monday night-Tuesday shortwave clipper system in moderate
northwest flow aloft is fcst to sweep across the region. Snowfall
and gusty winds produced by this system should remain confined to
higher elevations. Lower elevations should remain dry, except
maybe a few rain snow showers across the far nern corner of the
state early Tuesday morning. Should see little change in temps on
Tuesday. Finally, dry and slightly warmer conditions return
Wednesday with shortwave ridging.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 914 pm mst Thu jan 18 2018
no aviation impacts this evening or tomorrow. Winds will be
typical drainage overnight and west to southwesterly tomorrow.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Dankers
short term... Sullivan
long term... Baker
aviation... Dankers


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi51 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F11°F29%1011.8 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi56 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F9°F29%1013.3 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi61 minW 430.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F12°F23%1014.2 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi56 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F12°F27%1011.2 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair30°F19°F66%1015.6 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO22 mi57 minS 10 G 1710.00 miFair39°F18°F44%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S9S8S9S9S9S8S10S9S10S10S9S6SW4CalmSE3E4E7SE10S9S10S7S10
1 day agoS8S7S5S3CalmSE3S8S5NE6CalmSW5W6W4CalmCalmE7E5NE5E4SE8SE10SE11S8S10
2 days agoSE8SE7SE7SE7S4S5S6S6S7S7S7S5S3E4SE4E3SE4SE6SE6SE10S8S8S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.