Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 26, 2018 5:27 AM MDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 4:37AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug

Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 260952
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
352 am mdt Thu apr 26 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 340 am mdt Thu apr 26 2018
a cold front, associated with an upper level trough passing
through the region, pushed south across northeast colorado early
this morning. Satellite and radar are showing mid level cloud and
scattered showers over wyoming at this time. Cross sections
indicate moisture will increase, but remain somewhat limit over
northeast colorado today. Will have mostly cloudy skies and low
pops for this morning. Best chance at seeing showers will be the
foothills and along the north side of the palmer divide where
upslope flow will help with lift. If showers form, they are
expected to be light with only a few hundredths expected. The
showers are expected to end by early afternoon as drier air moves
in. This will lead to breaks in the clouds. Highs will climb into
the upper 50s with a few lower 60s possible late this afternoon as
the clouds clear.

A surface high moving across the region will bring clear skies and
light winds tonight. Low lying will cool into the upper 20s with
other locations bottoming out in the low to mid 30s.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 340 am mdt Thu apr 26 2018
warmer and drier conditions should dominate the entire forecast
area to start the long term period with the passage of a sharp
shortwave upper ridge on Friday. Ample sunshine and s-swly low-
level flow downsloping off the front range and palmer divide
should return daytime temperatures to the upper 60s lower 70s on
the plains. Minimum relative humidities, though low, are still
expected to remain above values necessary to create serious
wildfire concerns. The recent precip and ongoing green-up should
also reduce the potential for wildfire on Friday.

Models all agree in shifting the 700-500mb ridge axis eastward over
the front range by Saturday morning, causing a shift to swly flow
aloft. The shift in flow appears to advect a north-south oriented
band of mid-level moisture and instability eastward across the
state during the day Saturday. Models also show strengthening sely
bndry layer flow on the plains driving a tongue of increasing theta-e
air up into ERN colorado during the afternoon. This influx of
low-level moisture and warm temps generate sfc based capes in the
300-400 j kg range according to the gfs, and 700-850 j kg range
as per the nam. This instability and a favorable shear profile
would support the formation of showers t-storms, first in the
high country and nearby plains (i.E., the i- 25 corridor) by late
morning or early afternoon, then along the palmer divide to srn
washington and lincoln counties by late afternoon early evening.

Can see precip chances anywhere from 30-60 pct in the high
country, to 20-30 pct along the foothills and palmer divide, with
near zero chances acrs the far northeast corner of the CWA where
cin will be difficult to erode. Precip amounts should generally be
on the low side, esply on the plains with a relatively dry sub-
cloud environment. High plains storms may produce more in the way
of gusty outflow winds than wetting rainfall. This plume of
mid-level moisture is progged to slowly lift out of the area by
morning opening the way to dry and slightly warmer conditions for
Sunday. Latest temperature guidance continues to indicate well
above average MAX temps in the upper70 lower 80s on the plains,
and balmy 50s 60s acrs the high country. Strengthening swly flow
aloft and pressure falls on the plains will also produce gusty
swly sfc winds which will lower rh values and therefore elevate
the fire danger, esply in areas not receiving much precip in
recent days, such as along the palmer divide.

Looking ahead to next week, medium range models all indicate a
trend towards wetter and cooler weather beginning Monday with a
deep upper trough carving out over the great basin NRN rockies.

Models show this trough gaining strength as a pocket of jet level
energy dives down its back side, causing the parent trough to
close off in the vicinity of the four corners on Tuesday. Where
this closed low tracks will largely determine the type and amount
of precip we'll see across the forecast area Tuesday and
Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are now both indicating decent QPF both
days, esply along and east of the mtns. It's really still too
early to know for certain what direction this low will track. For
now, will trend cooler, wetter and unsettled for the first half of
next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 340 am mdt Thu apr 26 2018
northerly winds with gusts to 30 knots will prevail today behind
a cold front. Low mid clouds will form around or just after 12z
with ceilings of 4000-6000 feet. Clouds will lift and scattered
after 18z. After 00z, skies will clear and winds will shift to a
southerly direction and remain southerly through tonight.

Bou watches warnings advisories

Short term... Meier
long term... Baker
aviation... Meier

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi90 minNNW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F26°F50%1015.8 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi35 minN 18 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy46°F26°F46%1018.2 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi35 minN 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F26°F43%1021 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi35 minN 21 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy46°F26°F46%1016 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi34 minN 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast49°F25°F39%1022.7 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO22 mi28 minN 17 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F28°F49%1021 hPa

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS5S6S5SW7SW6W4NW3CalmS3CalmCalmS4SE6SE6SE9S12S15S17S13SW13W5N13
1 day agoNE10--NE7----NE11--------N10N5--W5NW7----W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4S4SW5CalmW4CalmE5E5E5NW3N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.