Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:42PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:32 PM EST (20:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 318 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain, freezing rain and snow in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E around 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 318 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will swing across the area on Wednesday, then high pressure builds across the northeast later Thursday, then offshore Friday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will affect the mid atlantic region around Saturday and Saturday night, followed briefly by weak high pressure Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, NJ
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location: 39.73, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201742
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1242 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure off southeast new england around midday will
continue to progress northeastward. A strong cold front will
move through the mid- atlantic on Wednesday, followed by a very
cold surface high building into the northeast for thanksgiving
and Friday. A couple of surface lows may affect the region this
weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak low pressure was located off CAPE cod around midday. The
low will continue to progress northeastward.

Dry air will build into our region on a west to northwest wind
for this afternoon. As a result, we are anticipating a decrease
in cloud cover.

Highs are forecast to range from the upper 30s in the elevated
terrain of the poconos and northwestern new jersey to the middle
50s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure south and west of the region will mainly be in
control of the area tonight. Meanwhile, a weak clipper system
ahead of a strong cold front will approach late tonight.

Mainly clear skies and light west winds on tap for the region
tonight. Lows will generally range from the low to mid 20s in
far northern zones to the 20s to around 30 for the rest of the
region.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Quite a few challenges with the long-term forecast, with the
main two stories being a very cold thanksgiving (and Friday)
followed by a couple of systems affecting the region this
weekend into early next week.

The large-scale pattern features a strong trough in eastern
north america on Wednesday with digging vorticity maxima
amplifying the trough as it progresses into the western atlantic
by Friday night. However, it will be replaced by amplified
ridging early this weekend with help from a polar high
retrogressing into eastern north america during this period.

This will serve to reinforce longwave troughing in the
central eastern u.S. Canada, with two strong midlevel
perturbations digging into the central southeastern u.S. This
weekend into early next week. Models are struggling mightily
with the evolution of these midlevel perturbations and
associated surface lows, with very poor agreement with both by
Saturday. In general, the forecast for the whole period is based
on a consensus model blend but with less and less weighting of
the 12z 00z ECMWF Saturday and beyond as they become outliers
(though worryingly consistent ones). The ECMWF seems to be
weakest with the amplified ridging and blocking polar flow,
which does not seem reasonable given the evolving pattern early
this week and general teleconnections with the polar-latitude
pattern.

On Wednesday, an arctic cold front will blast through the
northeast, progressing through our CWA by evening. Operational
models depict some light QPF along upstream of the front as deep
mixing allows for some (snow) showers to develop. The setup
looks at least somewhat favorable for a snow squall or two
Wednesday (late morning into early evening), given (1)
development of shallow buoyancy in the increasingly deep mixing
layer upstream of the front, (2) very strong 850-750 mb flow
with a fetch upstream from the great lakes, and (3) ready
saturation of surface-based parcels. Though this potential seems
much higher to our north and west (as usual), this will need to
be monitored closely as the cold front progresses through the
area.

The main story with the front will be the bone-chilling air it
brings in. It will also be breezy upstream of the front, and
this spells low wind chills. Current forecast has these readings
near or below zero Wednesday night and Thursday in the poconos
and adjacent areas, with single digits and teens virtually
everywhere else. Winds will diminish Thursday night, but
temperatures will plunge as a strong surface ridge approaches,
allowing for ideal radiational cooling. Record lows are a
possibility. Lowered temperatures quite a bit Thursday and
Thursday night, as statistical guidance tends to be too warm in
these environments (especially those that are so anomalous).

Somewhat worried I am still on the warm side, especially
Thursday night in more rural areas, so these numbers may be
decreased more in subsequent forecasts.

Friday should be quite cold as well, but it should be warmer as
light return flow is expected to set up as the surface high
advances offshore. As midlevel ridging moves into the region,
Friday night should be much warmer and may feature little if any
cooling beyond the early evening as warm moist advection
increase(s).

Attention turns to the developing surface low in the southeast
Friday night. The GFS cmc shift this low (of varying intensity)
off the carolina coast, while the ECMWF lifts the low along the
mid- atlantic coast by 12z Saturday. Large differences in
precipitation timing and magnitude in our area occur as a
result, with the ECMWF showing considerably more precipitation
on Saturday. The GFS cmc produce some cold-conveyor-belt
precipitation as the low progresses well offshore across the
i-95 corridor and surrounds but suggest the heavier
precipitation stays well south closer to the low's track. All of
the models suggest the precipitation may hold off until later
in the day Saturday, which is good news given the residual cold
air that will remain Friday night. This also makes sense given
residual effects on the strong surface high -- models tend to be
too aggressive with precipitation encroaching a retreating
ridge. Should precipitation onset be sooner, the pattern
reflects a warm nose atop near-surface near- sub-freezing air
(i.E., a wintry mix with some chance for sleet freezing rain).

Cannot rule this scenario out entirely, so have included chances
of this Saturday morning. However, current model simulations
suggest the timing will be too late, with the precipitation
being a mostly above-freezing liquid event.

There will be a brief lull in precipitation at some point this
weekend... Most likely Sunday... Before the second strong vort max
makes it move toward the area. The ECMWF looks way too fast
given the blocky polar pattern, but if correct, would suggest a
quick- hitting, light QPF event for most of the area on Monday.

The GFS cmc would suggest a stronger second QPF punch on
Monday Monday night (slower owing to the appreciable blocking
simulated by these models). Temperatures look warm on Monday, so
most of the precipitation would be liquid. However, should
precipitation linger Monday night into Tuesday on the cold side
of the system, may see a little bit of a wintry mix in the
northwest cwa. Plenty of time to figure out these details, and
too much model disagreement to begin dissecting the
thermodynamic details profiles this far in advance.

Given the above, have broad (mainly chance) pops Saturday
through the end of the period with temperatures near seasonal
averages for highs and above averages for lows. Again, the
entire period will not be wet, but the timing discrepancies
among the guidance preclude pinpointing these time windows at
this point.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon... Lingering patches of MVFR ceilings until about
21z, especiallly around krdg, kabe and kttn, otherwiseVFR.

Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight...VFR. Mainly clear. West wind 8 knots or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday: primarilyVFR with a strong cold
front moving through on Wednesday, switching winds from
southwest to northwest. Speeds generally 10 to 15 kts with gusts
up to 25+ kts after frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and
again on Thursday. Winds should be light and variable Thursday
night and Friday. Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday: periods of sub-vfr possible with a
chance of rain on Saturday. Winds easterly or southeasterly
below 10 kts Friday night becoming 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts
near the coast Saturday. Low confidence.

Marine
Low pressure off the southeast new england coast around noon
deepens as it moves towards the gulf of maine. NW winds 15-20
kt with 25-30 kt gusts into tonight. Small craft advisory
remains in effect for de bay and the ocean.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: strong cold front will pass
through the waters, with winds switching to northwest. A period
of gales is possible, especially off the new jersey coast, but
confidence is low. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday: strong northwest winds continue, and gales cannot be
ruled out. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday night: lingering advisory-level winds expected but
should diminish late.

Friday and Friday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Saturday: east southeast winds develop and increase, possibly
to advisory levels. Rain possible.

Climate
Here is a list of current record low temperatures:
site november 22 november 23
allentown 15 2014 16 2000, 1964
atlantic city 16 2014, 1964 10 1989
georgetown 16 1987, 1969 16 1984, 1964
mount pocono 5 1969 6 2000, 1964
philadelphia 14 1980 10 1880
reading 16 1969 16 1972
trenton 15 1880 16 1880
wilmington 17 1964 17 1964

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Iovino
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Cms mps
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 16 mi32 min 41°F1013.3 hPa (+0.8)
BDSP1 18 mi32 min 47°F 45°F1013.9 hPa (+1.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 23 mi32 min 45°F1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 25 mi56 min WNW 8 G 14 47°F 42°F1012.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 31 mi32 min NNW 9.9 G 14 47°F 43°F1013.8 hPa (+0.7)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 31 mi62 min W 6 45°F 1012 hPa34°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 33 mi32 min 48°F 48°F1013.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 33 mi32 min NW 12 G 20 48°F 44°F1014.2 hPa (+0.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi32 min WNW 23 G 25 49°F 50°F1013.5 hPa (-0.0)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi32 min 51°F 52°F1013.1 hPa (+0.5)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi32 min WNW 12 G 20 48°F 46°F1014.9 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ17 mi38 minWNW 8 G 2010.00 miOvercast47°F30°F54%1013.4 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA17 mi38 minNW 16 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F30°F52%1014 hPa

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3W663W6W7NW8
G18
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1 day agoCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoW8NW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm333Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mantua, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Mantua
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Tue -- 12:35 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:03 PM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:18 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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443.42.61.710.40.20.71.82.83.444.23.93.12.31.50.80.30.41.32.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:48 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:57 PM EST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.5-0.90.41.31.31.310.1-0.9-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.311.41.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.