Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:24 AM CST (09:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, IL
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location: 39.73, -90.23     debug

Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 170519
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
1119 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019

Issued at 820 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
radar echoes on regional mosaics over over central illinois this
evening are mainly from mid level clouds, as little is happening
at the ground so far. An increase in light echoes over missouri is
what we are watching, as the precipitation expands into central
illinois toward midnight. Forecast soundings suggest the
precipitation beginning as freezing drizzle while a dry layer
above 800 mb moistens up. After that, freezing rain or snow will
occur, with a transition to straight rain near and south of i-72
toward 3 am. Latest high-res models indicate areas west of the
illinois river may see little in the way of any precip. Not quite
ready to go that far yet, but have updated the pop's with a
shorter window of very high values late tonight. Snow amounts
around an inch still appear reasonable along a havana to danville
line. A few hundredths of ice accumulation remain possible, though
temperatures will continue to creep upward and the effects may be
more on elevated surfaces. No changes to the advisory at this
point, though impacts closer to i-70 will probably be only minor.

Updated zones grids have been sent.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 244 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
high pressure ridge overhead on the surface analysis this
afternoon. A frontal boundary stalling over the southern third of
the state marks a delineation between a slightly cooler and drier
airmass and the richer boundary layer moisture flurries mist to
the south. Short term forecast is driven by the next wave
currently over the plains states, moving out into the midwest
tonight. The precip is expected to begin later this evening, with
the chances for some freezing drizzle rain briefly before becoming
a mostly light snow event. However, given the temperatures
lingering just below freezing and already having a little bit of
snow ice on secondary roads... Have the winter weather advisory out
for slippery travel conditions tonight and into tomorrow. Ice
amounts should be little more than a glazing, with untreated roads
more at risk... Then up to an inch or so of snow possible by
morning, mainly north of a line from jacksonville to danville.

Areas south of that line to interstate 70 are included in that
advisory mostly for the freezing drizzle risk... But further
complicated by the boundary in the vicinity. Travel interests
should use caution this evening. Light snow will continue through
the morning, potentially impacting the morning commute, but should
begin to ebb late morning midday as warm air advects into the
region, changing over to snow. By tomorrow evening, central
illinois will begin a short term dry out in the forecast.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 244 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
Thursday night and most of Friday expected to be dry, but will
need to see how much of this llvl moisture can scour out warm air
advect in and lessen the rich rhs at the surface to get out of the
drizzle light precip. On Friday, a deep wave comes on the pacific
coast aloft, digging into the desert SW and developing a storm
system over the plains by Friday night. Flow across the midwest
turns to more southwesterly aloft as that energy makes its way
into the region. That surface low center passes to the south of
central il, but lines up a developing deformation zone of the
system across ilx. Friday night and Saturday looks like another
chance for several inches of snow again. Last run was at least a
little more consistency from model to model, but the 12z solutions
diverge slightly again. Small changes in the track vary the
location of the heavier snow bands and will have a major impact on
the totals. For now, the heaviest snow over 36 hours is right
across the central portions of the state... Moderate amounts to the
north, and a fairly distinct cut off to the higher totals to the
south. The details will change in subsequent forecasts, but this
is a dynamic system that will be watched closely. Cold air is
ushered in behind this storm, dropping overnight lows Sunday
morning into the single digits low teens. Highs on Sunday do not
climb very much and lows Sunday night Monday morning drop to
single digits above and below zero. Monday night Tuesday will see
another round of precip, with snow possible in the northern half
of the state.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1119 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
MVFR conditions hanging on at 05z near kpia kbmi, but this should
deteriorate soon. Ceilings from kspi-kcmi have decreased to a few
hundred feet, and will not go anywhere soon. Light precipitation
is starting to move into west central illinois, and will
overspread the TAF sites through 09z. Best chances of freezing
rain will be at kpia kbmi, before it changes to snow, while the
trend further south will be mixed precipitation changing to rain.

Most of the precipitation should be out of illinois by midday, but
clouds will be slower to improve.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for ilz027>031-

Update... Geelhart
short term... Hjs
long term... Hjs
aviation... Geelhart

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL3 mi49 minENE 62.00 miLight Snow32°F32°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from IJX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW8NW7NW5N4NW5N5N3CalmCalmSE5E3E4SE3CalmE5E4E5E7E8SE7E6E6E5E5
1 day agoW7W5W9W6W8SW4SW6SW9SW10SW9SW11SW12
2 days agoW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW9SW9SW8W7W9W5W7W9W7W6W5W9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.