Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barnegat, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:08PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:50 AM EST (07:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 917 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers late. Areas of fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Showers until late afternoon, then showers likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ400 917 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will track northeastward through tonight and reach the saint lawrence river valley and northern new england late Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will move through our region Tuesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into our region during the balance of the week, before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold front then arrives on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barnegat, NJ
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location: 39.75, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230545
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1245 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeastward to the saint lawrence
river valley and northern new england late Tuesday. An
associated strong cold front will move through our region
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into our
region for the remainder of the week before moving out to sea
Saturday. A cold front is then forecast to arrive on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1230 am update: surface temperatures remain quite variable
across the cwa, with the northern CWA socked in with low clouds
and fog with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s, the
delmarva and far southeast new jersey around or even above 50,
the urban metropolis around 50, and the rural areas outside of
the metro in the lower 40s. To be frank, hi-res models and
near-term stat guidance have basically no clue regarding any of
this, so the updated hourly temperature forecast is based
primarily on extrapolation, at least for the next few hours.

Slowed the precip onset even more, reducing pops in the western
cwa by 10-20 percent through 09z and about 10 percent
thereafter. Thinking most of the showers will hold off through
08z or 09z in our cwa, and the trend continues to be slower.

Recent (00z) model guidance shows some healthy precip (qpf)
northwest of the fall line once the showers move in from the
west southwest, with the 04z hrrr showing totals exceeding an
inch by 12z in the lehigh valley and southern poconos. Cell
motions will be fast, but such precip may cause some localized
hydro issues. Notably, the wrf-nmm is lower (generally 0.5-1.0
inch(es) during this period), but the coarser guidance (e.G.,
the 00z nam) is picking up on higher precipitation totals with
the incoming batch of showers during the late-night period.

The general evolution of the precipitation is in reasonable
agreement amongst the hi-res guidance. The convection in
ohio eastern kentucky will either progress northeast or
dissipate before reaching our area; however, a large area of
showers (perhaps with embedded storms) moves in from the
southwest. This precipitation is already developing in the
western carolinas and southwest virginia, so there is fairly high
confidence the models have the correct idea.

Still think the lightning threat is too small for inclusion the
rest of the night, but elevated instability will be increasing
late tonight, so cannot rule it out completely.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
1230 am update: a quick look at the 00z model output for this
period suggests that general thinking remains unchanged from the
discussion below. Several batches of showers storms look to move
through the area through at least 18z. Marginal instability will
exist, but there remain suggestions of some surface-based
instability in the immediate vicinity of the bands of
convection. With very strong winds just off the surface,
isolated damaging winds are possible. Hodographs are basically
off the charts as well, with decent veering in the surface to
700-mb layer. Forecast SRH of 300+ j kg is certainly favorable
for an isolated tornado, with of course the main question being
will there be sufficient instability for any such occurrence.

With the widespread nature of the showers expected during the
morning hours, I am awfully skeptical, but unfortunately, this
will not become clear until the initial batch(es) of showers
reach the area.

I am becoming more concerned about heavy rain potential,
primarily north of the mason-dixon line. The hi-res model output
is showing storm totals 1-2 inches in general (highest with the
hrrr), especially north west of philly. I bumped up QPF with
this update for most spots, though the drier look of the GFS did
not prompt me to increase amounts considerably (yet).

Previous discussion...

low pressure will track from michigan across ontario into quebec by
late in the day Tuesday. This will drag a strong cold front across
our area with numerous showers. Showers are expected to quickly
overspread the area in the morning and persist into the afternoon.

The forecast models, especially the nam, are depicting enough
elevated CAPE for at least a few thunderstorms. Also, worth noting,
the mid level lapse rates will be fairly steep (near 7 c km) with a
very strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front (around 60 knots
at 925 mb). If convective elements are able to become surface-based,
there is more of a concern for locally damaging winds mixing down to
the surface. This is especially for southeast pa, southern nj, and
delmarva where the instability will be the greatest. The storm
prediction center has these areas in a marginal risk for severe
storms. The limiting factor will be that the low levels will be
fairly stable so confidence of severe weather is not high. The most
likely window for this to occur looks to be mid morning through
early afternoon after which time the cold front will clear the area
with showers ending. Also, pwats will be up to 1.25 inches so
locally heavy rain will occur which can lead to local poor drainage
flooding.

Highs Tuesday range from near 50 across the southern poconos to the
upper 50s to mid upper 60s across SE pa, southern nj, and
delmarva.

Long term tonight through Monday
Surface low pressure is forecast to be located in maine on Tuesday
evening. The system is expected to strengthen as it moves across
atlantic canada on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The gradient between
the departing low and high pressure building into our region from
the west should result in brisk conditions developing for Wednesday.

A west northwest wind around 10 to 20 mph is anticipated at that
time.

Surface high pressure should move from the south central states on
Wednesday to the carolinas and virginia late on Thursday. The center
of the high is anticipated to slide over the western north atlantic
on Friday and Saturday. The air mass is forecast to bring dry
weather conditions for the period from Wednesday into Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonable on Wednesday and Thursday
with a warming trend as we head toward and into the weekend.

Low pressure and a cold front are forecast to approach from the west
over the weekend. There is a spread in the guidance solutions
regarding the timing of the arrival of the cold front in our region.

We will carry a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday.

Aviation 05z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... Some patchy fog will occur at abe ttn with
occasional low stratus at acy through 09z or so. Showers will
move in from the southwest after 09z, with CIGS vsbys becoming
sub-vfr promptly during this period. Moderate to heavy showers
may occur at times and with little warning, causing quick brief
reductions to ifr lifr. Low-level wind shear will continue
through the night (generally southwest 35-50+ kts at 2000 feet).

Winds generally east or northeast at abe ttn and more
southeast south elsewhere, with speeds below 10 kts. Overall
confidence is slightly above average.

Tuesday... Generally sub-vfr through 20z with rapid improvement
west to east thereafter. Showers likely through the morning, and
at least a slight chance of thunder. For now, no mention in the
tafs as coverage timing are very uncertain. Winds will become
southwest during the day, possibly becoming gusty during the
afternoon. Showers are capable of producing strong erratic gusts
and localized convective turbulence. Overall confidence is
average.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
For tonight, south winds should begin to increase, especially
after midnight, with speeds reaching small-craft advisory criteria a
couple of hours before daybreak. Also, areas of fog may develop over
the waters overnight with showers arriving west to east near
daybreak.

Tuesday... Strong small craft advisory conditions over the waters
with a few gusts to gale force possible around midday, especially in
any heavier showers thunder. Since this looks to be brief, we opted
for sca, not gale warning. Marine weather statements and possibly a
special marine warning may be needed for these locally stronger
winds. SCA conditions expected for de bay Tuesday. South winds in
the morning shift to the west in the afternoon behind the passage of
a cold front.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... A small craft advisory is in effect on our ocean waters
for westerly wind gusts around 25 knots.

Wednesday through Thursday... A west northwest wind could gust around
25 knots and the small craft advisory may be extended in time.

Thursday night through Saturday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 6 pm est
this evening for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Gorse iovino
near term... Cms
short term... Cms fitzsimmons gorse
long term... Iovino
aviation... Cms iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi80 min S 8 48°F 1015 hPa47°F
44091 23 mi50 min 43°F2 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 30 mi50 min 43°F 36°F1014.7 hPa (-3.6)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 47°F 32°F1014 hPa (-3.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi74 min S 5.1 G 8 50°F 33°F1013.6 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi50 min 51°F 35°F1013 hPa (-3.7)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ13 mi54 minS 810.00 miFair49°F48°F97%1015.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi1.8 hrsE 37.00 miOvercast44°F43°F96%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNW33E4E44NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS9S8
1 day agoW4SW3SW4CalmW3--NW5NW9NW8NW9NW9
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2 days agoSW6SW5SW6SW4--SW6SW12SW15
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W12W7W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3--W4

Tide / Current Tables for Double Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Double Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:36 AM EST     0.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:53 PM EST     0.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10000

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EST     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM EST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:08 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     2.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.910-0.8-1.4-1.8-2-1.9-10.31.42.121.30.3-0.7-1.4-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.5-0.21.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.