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FXUS66 KSTO 242032 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 132 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Synopsis
Cool and unsettled weather this week. A chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains today. Precipitation chances increase Thursday afternoon and Friday as a weather system moves through, best chances in the foothills and mountains.

Discussion
Afternoon GOES satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across interior NorCal. Near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast this afternoon. NorCal remains in between systems as upstream short-wave energy approaches from the Gulf of Alaska and the closed low moves into SoCal later today.
Another round of isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over the northern mountains and the northern Sierra south of Highway 50. The NBM indicates a 10-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

Ensembles show the next wave sliding southward later Thursday into Friday, bringing the potential for light showers. Best shower chances will be over the foothills and mountains. Little to no impacts are expected with this system. WPC guidance indicates less than 0.10" in the Valley, and generally around 0.10-0.50" over the foothills and mountains. A few inches of snowfall accumulation will be possible over the higher elevations (snow levels above 6-7k ft) in the Sierra, but travel impacts will likely be minimal. The NBM projects a 15-30% probability of thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening. Lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

Dry conditions return Saturday as riding from the eastern Pacific builds into the region. Forecast highs will be in the low to 70s across the Valley, 60s to low 70s over the foothills, and upper 40s to low 60s over the mountains.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Dry weather Sunday as weak short wave ridging moves through interior NorCal. Cluster analysis is in decent agreement on general weak ridging/zonal flow remaining across NorCal into next week. By mid next week, ensembles diverge and variation of solutions spreads, so confidence beyond Monday is somewhat low.
Potential scenarios being displayed in the clusters includes continued zonal flow with ridging centered across the southwest and troughing to our north across the PacNW, and then variability on how deep the northern trough could dig and associated timing difference with it. Stay tuned as details become more clear for the forecast next week.

//Peters

AVIATION
VFR conditions over next 24 hrs except for MVFR/IFR conditions in isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains through 03z-06z Thursday. A weather system will bring showers to interior NorCal Thursday afternoon-Friday, with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions after 18z Thursday. Surface wind mainly below 12 kts except vicinity of Delta with southwesterly winds up to 18 kts after 00z Thursday. Increasing southwesterly winds after 18z Thursday, mainly over the mountains and vicinity of Delta.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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Wed -- 02:59 AM PDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:26 AM PDT     3.03 feet High Tide
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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