Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Valley, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:48PM Monday August 21, 2017 12:23 AM EDT (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:00AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 927 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Overnight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 927 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight, then slowly drifts out to sea through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday, then works its way across the region on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region late in the week and into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Valley, NJ
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location: 39.8, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210146
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
946 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight, then slowly
drifts out to sea through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from
the west on Tuesday, then works its way across the region on
Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region late in
the week and into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Relatively tranquil weather conditions will persist through
tonight as high pressure remains over the area. Scant cloud
cover and light and variable winds will lead to favorable
radiational cooling tonight, with temperatures falling to near
or within a few degrees of climatological normals.

Dew points have increased a bit more than previously forecast,
so expanded the mention of patchy fog, though agree with the
previous shift that any fog will be shallow radiation fog and
will likely be short lived.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As high pressure shifts offshore, flow will return to a more
southerly direction allowing warm moist advection through the
afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees higher than
Sunday, while humidity will markedly increase towards the
evening. There may be a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms as a short wave trough over the midwest moves
eastward, reaching the area by afternoon evening. One limiting
factor will be rather diffuse surface boundaries - with little
to no forecast convergence expected to focus or enhance
activity. As such, the best chance for any development will be
along higher terrain, mainly to the west of philadelphia.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
Some mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the region
Monday night. Onshore flow will usher a warm and humid airmass
into the region, as surface dewpoints will climb into the upper
60s to low 70s, and into the mid 70s across the DELMARVA and
extreme southern nj. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, gradually tapering off
after midnight. Patchy fog may form in the pre-dawn hours going
into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, low pressure over the great lakes will lift to the
northeast towards eastern canada. This will drag a cold front
through the great lakes and into the ohio valley late Tuesday.

Pre-frontal trough sets up ahead of the front, and that looks
to trigger afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Abundant low level moisture will be in place with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s, and with several strong shortwaves out ahead
of the upper trough surface cold front, can expect some fairly
strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Cold front works its way to the south
and east Wednesday through Wednesday evening, then becomes
nearly stationary over the mid-atlantic and DELMARVA for the end
of the week. Quite warm and humid for the first half of the
long term period, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on
Tuesday, then in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. MAX heat
index values on Tuesday look to be in the upper 90s for areas
along and south of the i-95 corridor, and around 100 for the
delmarva.

Several waves of low pressure may develop on this boundary, but
latest model guidance keeps those systems well offshore.

Canadian high pressure then builds in from the north and west
to close out the work week, with the center of the high
gradually passing north of the region on Saturday before moving
offshore on Sunday. Dry conditions expected for the end of the
week and into the weekend with temperatures running several
degrees below normal. Highs will top off in the upper 70s to
around 80 from Thursday through Sunday, and lows will drop into
the upper 50s to low 60s, except cooler up north.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions. There is a low chance of patchy fog development
towards daybreak tonight but with drier conditions expect any
development to be limited. Westerly winds through this afternoon
will gradually become light southwesterly then light and
variable as high pressure shifts across the area.

By Monday, high pressure will shift offshore allowing southerly
flow to strengthen to around 5-10 kt through the afternoon.

There is an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms
after 18z, generally 20 to 30 percent for all TAF sites.

However, the chance is too low to include in the tafs at this
time.

Outlook...

Monday night... Sub-vfr conditions possible in scattered
shra tsra. Fog stratus also possible with sub-vfr conditions.

Tuesday... Morning fog stratus burns off, then predominantly
vfr. Scattered shra tsra develop late in the day and at night
with sub-vfr conditions.

Wednesday... Sub-vfr conditions in showers thunderstorms, which
taper off late in the day. A wind shift from S to NW likely late
in the day with the passage of a cold front.

Thursday through Friday...VFR and light winds.

Marine
Winds and seas remain tranquil across the waters through Monday
as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Seas will remain
two feet or less through Monday afternoon, with a few 3 foot
seas possible off the northern nj coast by evening as southerly
winds begin to strengthen.

Outlook...

Monday night... Winds and seas below SCA thresholds.

Tuesday... SCA possible late afternoon and night with S winds
increasing to around 25 kt ahead of cold front. Building seas
to 4-6 ft are forecast for the atlantic coastal waters.

Wednesday... Winds should decrease to below 25 kt but sca
conditions may continue into the morning as it may take longer
for seas in the coastal waters to drop below 5 ft.

Thursday through Friday... No marine hazards expected.

Rip currents...

at this point we expect the risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents on Monday to begin low. However, with winds
increasing out of the south and the dominant period trending
longer, the risk could increase as we go through the day
depending on how quickly the wind shift occurs. For now we will
mention a low risk in the surf forecast but continue to monitor
closely especially as we go through the day on Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding is possible at the high tide Monday
evening. With high pressure offshore, onshore will winds
develop, and this will coincide with relatively high
astronomical tides due to a new moon. Latest guidance is showing
water levels just touching minor coastal flooding thresholds.

However, water levels with the past three high tide cycles have
been higher than most guidance, thus will include a mention in
the hazardous weather outlook for the potential of minor tidal
flooding. Will wait to make a decision on an advisory until we
get the next run of guidance in and have a chance to run local
regression equations based on the tidal departures we saw this
evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Johnson 99
short term... 99
long term... Mps
aviation... Johnson mps 99
marine... Johnson mps 99
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 9 mi53 min 77°F 78°F1021.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 12 mi53 min 74°F 1021.6 hPa
BDSP1 14 mi53 min 77°F 1022 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 25 mi53 min Calm G 1 71°F 78°F1021.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi53 min Calm G 0 71°F 78°F1021.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi53 min 73°F 81°F1021.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi53 min S 1 G 1.9 70°F 78°F1022.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi107 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 77°F 80°F1021.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi53 min SSW 1 G 1 68°F 83°F1022.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi53 min SW 2.9 69°F 1022 hPa67°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi29 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds75°F66°F74%1021.9 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ21 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair65°F64°F100%1021.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA22 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair71°F64°F79%1022.2 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE24 mi32 minWNW 310.00 miFair70°F64°F84%1022.4 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W5W7W7NW7NW6NW7N7NW7NW9N5NW9W8NW7
G15
NW85NW9N8N6W6SW3W5SW3
1 day agoSW11SW8SW9SW7SW6W7NW5NW7NW9N7NW11W8NW7NW9W5W7W9W9W8W9SW7SW5W7W8
2 days agoS5SW6S5S7SW5S6S5S8S6S7S7SW10SW6W9SW4S8S6S8W9SE3SE10SW9W8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Mantua, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Mantua
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Mon -- 02:54 AM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:24 PM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.34.255.34.84.13.42.51.30.30.21.12.23.144.64.53.93.12.31.40.50.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:16 PM EDT     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:27 PM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.2-0.1-1.4-1.9-2.1-2-1.9-1.7-0.51.11.81.91.70.6-0.9-1.8-2.1-2-1.7-1.4-0.511.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.