Saturday, February24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Valley, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:49PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:41 PM EST (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:10PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 942 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain late this evening, then periods of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late in the morning, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon, then 2 ft or less late. Patchy fog until late afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less until late afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
ANZ400 942 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will slowly lift northward into southern new jersey Sunday morning where low pressure will develop on this front and move to eastern long island by evening. The trailing cold front may stall in the carolinas on Monday awaiting the passage of another wave of low pressure to our southeast. Strengthening high pressure builds into the mid-atlantic states Tuesday. A cold front will drop down through the region on Wednesday night while low pressure develops over illinois. That low slides to the mid- atlantic coast by Friday morning, then intensifies into a strong storm over the western atlantic Friday night before heading only slowly out sea over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Valley, NJ
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location: 39.8, -75.18     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250240
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
940 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

A warm front will slowly lift northward into southern new jersey
Sunday morning, where low pressure will develop on this front and
move to eastern long island by evening. The trailing cold front may
stall in the carolinas on Monday awaiting the passage of another
wave of low pressure to our southeast. Strengthening high pressure
builds into the mid-atlantic states Tuesday. A cold front will drop
down through the region on Wednesday night while low pressure
develops over illinois. That low slides to the mid- atlantic coast
by Friday morning, then intensifies into a strong storm over the
western atlantic Friday night before heading only slowly out sea
over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
For the 930 pm update, made some mainly minor adjustments to the
temperatures, dew points and winds. Temperatures are tending to hold
fairly steady for most areas thus far. Lowered the pops some more
for while with just some spotty light rain around, however a more
organized area of rain showers is west of dc and tracking
northeastward therefore increased the pops a little faster overnight
across delmarva. As a stronger short wave arrives late tonight along
with an uptick in warm air advection and isentropic lift, rain is
expected to be on the increase especially across the northern and
central areas. While the wedge of stable near-surface air is still
in place, some drying resulted in higher cloud bases. These are
expected to lower once again overnight especially as more organized
rain arrives. The next round of organized rain looks to arrive from
the southwest after about 06z 1am for much of the area.

Otherwise, the entire area remains north of a warm front through the
overnight hours as low pressure moves well to our northwest. Some
fog will redevelop again overnight, with the potential for locally
dense fog, especially over portions of delmarva. Temperatures will
be steady or slowly rising through the night.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The warm front will make progress north late in the morning
and into the afternoon hours, roughly from chester county
pa to ocean county nj. Fog will likely linger into the
morning hours, and may be dense, especially over portions
of delmarva.Precipitation will gradually taper off during the
afternoon, especially to the south of the front, where the sun
may make an appearance from time to time. There is some weak
instability in the warm sector, but not enough to include
thunder in the forecast, which is in agreement with spc.

Temperatures south of the front into the 60s, with some lower
70s possible across southern delmarva. Further north, mid-50s
to mid-60s are expected. Southwest winds could gust up to
around 20 mph in the warm sector.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Hazards: none explicitly ATTM and maybe there wont be as many as
currently possible in the Thursday-Saturday time frame but potential
exists for a powerful storm. A small stream hydro hazard may
develop somewhere in the CWA Friday, and possible winter wx hazard
for elevations of NE pa and NW nj, a coastal flood hazard appears
likely but we just dont have any confidence on severity. For now
minor tidal inundation flooding expected for at Thursday and Friday
morning high tide cycles, with at this time the higher departures
(flooding potential) expected in nj, but always depending on the
position of the western atlantic cyclone as well as its intensity. A
gale event, the first 2 hour or longer gale since feb 5, is expected
but we just dont know when. It will again be dependent on the
latitude of the cyclone. Its even possible storm force gusts could

500 mb: a short wave in the central plains Sunday night will cross
the mid atlantic coast Monday evening with east coast ridging to
follow during mid week. Then a weakening closed low in the desert
southwest Tuesday night starts reenergizing in the ohio valley
Thursday, becoming a large cyclonic circulation system along the mid
atlantic coast Friday, and slowly weakening seaward next weekend.

Temperatures: please see the climate section for updated
february climate stats. Calendar day averages should be nearly
10 degrees above normal Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, 10 to 15
degrees above normal Thursday, before cooling to between 5 and
10 above normal Friday and 5 degrees or less above normal next

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted, a 50 50 blend of the 12z 24
gfs nam MOS will be used Sunday night - Monday night, the 12z 24 gfs
mex MOS for Tuesday, and the 15z 24 wpc 12 hr elements of MAX min
temp and pop, as well as 6 hourly dewpoint wind sky for Wednesday-
Saturday. I did modify wpc using 1 3 wpc, 1 3 ec and 1 3 ggem
max temps Thursday and Saturday.

The dailies...

Sunday night... Variable cloudiness. There may be some leftover
evening stratus near and N of i78 during the evening, then that
should clear to reveal cirrus but there could be some patchy fog
later at night due to an expected decoupled northwest wind.

Confidence: average.

Monday... Northwest wind gusts 15 mph during the day and
possibly 15 to 20 mph at night as instability transfer deepens
with cold air advection aloft. Expecting considerable mid and
high cloudiness into early afternoon Monday then clearing late
in the day and at night. The short wave may spread a little rain
northward into far southern de for a time during the day.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Sunny and beautiful! Light wind. Confidence: well above

Wednesday... Partly sunny (lots of cirrus) and a few degrees warmer.

Southwest wind may gust 20 mph in the afternoon. Confidence: above

Wednesday night-Thursday... In association with either a cold frontal
passage or a warm front extension east-southeastward from the
developing midwest low pressure system, rain will be developing
either late Wednesday night or Thursday. It may become heavy in the
afternoon. Winds becoming east. Confidence: below average on any

Friday into Saturday... Probably gusty northerly winds and periods of
precipitation. As of now, rain most of Friday and thereafter
unknown, but potential exists for some elevation snow.

Confidence: below average
please see the wpc day 7 winter wx outlook graphic and their day 4-7
qpf graphics issued this Sunday afternoon to gain further
appreciation for the upcoming modeled-outlooked potential.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings with localized MVFR at times for the rest of
this evening, lowering to ifr with lifr locally possible later
tonight. There will also be developing MVFR ifr visibilities as some
fog develops, however this is lower confidence. Spotty rain around
through this evening, then steadier rain arrives after 06z.

Northeasterly winds mainly less than 10 knots, becoming locally
light and variable.

Sunday... Ifr lifr ceilings with mostly MVFR ifr visibilities with
periods of rain and fog, then conditions slowly improve some from
south to north in the afternoon. The more pronounced improvement in
conditions should be at acy and miv. Winds will be varying in
direction across the area during the day mainly 10 knots or less as
a warm front slowly lifts northward. Lower confidence on the timing
of improving conditions and also with the wind shifts.


Sunday night... Conditions quickly improving toVFR by midnight. Any
rain showers will quickly end by 9 pm. Patchy ifr fog is possible
late at night vicinity rdg, abe, ttn and miv. Northwest wind.

Confidence: average.

Monday... ProbablyVFR bkn clouds AOA 8000 ft, clearing late.

Northwest wind gusting 15-20 kt, especially late day.

Confidence: above average. A little concerned about low pressure
forming vcnty N carolina and spreading rain into southern de
for a time during the morning.

Tuesday...VFR virtually clear. Light wind. Confidence: well above

Wednesday...VFR cirrus. Southwest winds may gust 20 kt during the
afternoon. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR or ifr in
rain. East to southeast wind. Confidence: average.

Dense fog advisory through much of Sunday morning for the southern
atlantic coastal waters and lower delaware bay. This fog may tend to
dissipate for a time overnight before redeveloping toward daybreak
as warmer air and higher dew points advect northward. Farther to the
north, the more pronounced fog may not arrive until during the day
Sunday although this will depend on the position of a warm front.

Sca for winds and seas remains up on the atlantic waters for
Sunday. There is a low potential of a SCA for delaware bay as
southwest winds increase during the late morning into the
afternoon hours.


Sunday night... Lingering SCA seas possible, mainly the nj
atlantic coast. Have reduced the duration of the sca.

Confidence: average.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on
the area waters with northwest winds gusting 15-20 kt Monday
becoming light Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday.

Confidence: average.

Thursday... An easterly SCA likely with a possible gale for the
nnj waters. Confidence: average.

Periods of rain through Sunday could result in minor poor drainage
flooding. The heaviest rain is expected tonight and Sunday across
portions of eastern pa and northern nj, when up to additional inch
of rain will fall. By the time the rain ends Sunday evening, the
region will have received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since
Thursday, with the highest amounts falling over the northern third
of the forecast area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be
rises on area rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

We may need to think about a new hydrology section for late this
coming week to cover nj pa but just too far in advance with
plenty of uncertainty to add any confidently stated information,
except that a fairly potent weather pattern appears to evolving
for a portion of our forecast area.

**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today-Saturday feb 24,
based on our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this Saturday
morning; and for rainfall, amounts 1201 am today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.0 or 7.3f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

acy #1 warmest 42.7 or 7.4f warmer than the 35.3 norm.

43.0 -2017
42.7 -2018
40.6 -1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.3 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

phl #3 warmest 42.5 or 6.8f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

water equivalent february pcpn as of 1201 am today.

Phl ranked #10 with 5.30". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 6.87-1896
ilg ranked #8 with 5.48". An additional .50 would raise to #5
all time 7.02-1979
abe ranked #13 with 4.47". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 7.62-2008
acy ranked #2 with 6.12". Wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation
still is that acy will exceed the previous all time record rainfall
for february, by the end of the weekend. It could be a close

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 2 am est Monday for

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est Sunday for anz431-453>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz454-

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Franck gorse
short term... Franck
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag gorse
marine... Drag franck gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 9 mi42 min 48°F 43°F1022 hPa (+0.4)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 12 mi42 min 49°F 46°F1021.7 hPa (+0.4)
BDSP1 14 mi42 min 47°F 48°F1022.5 hPa (+0.5)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 25 mi66 min 46°F 42°F1022 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi42 min Calm G 4.1 48°F 42°F1021.8 hPa (+0.4)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi42 min 47°F 43°F1021.3 hPa (+0.3)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi42 min E 6 G 8 47°F 42°F1022.8 hPa (+0.5)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi42 min NE 6 G 8.9 49°F 44°F1021.7 hPa (+0.3)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi72 min NE 7 44°F 1022 hPa41°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi48 minNE 710.00 miLight Rain47°F44°F90%1022.3 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ21 mi48 minENE 410.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%1022 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA22 mi48 minNE 710.00 miOvercast49°F41°F74%1022.9 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE24 mi51 minNE 910.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1021.9 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F42°F93%1023 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW8SW11SW9W8W6SW7W3NW3CalmCalm4S3SW5SW4CalmN3E6CalmNE6N4NE8NE9NE8NE7
1 day agoE9E11NE9NE9NE8E10NE5E8E10NE4NE6E6E7E8NE6E6NE5NE5E4E3CalmSW3SW7SW7
2 days agoN13

Tide / Current Tables for Mantua, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Sat -- 01:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:12 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Sat -- 01:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:28 AM EST     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:14 PM EST     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:11 PM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.