Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ware, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:41PM Thursday August 24, 2017 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:14AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 614 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late in the evening, then becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..E winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..E winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
ANZ400 614 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the region through this weekend before progressing offshore around the middle of next week. This high will bring a period of dry and seasonably cool weather to the mid-atlantic through at least the beginning of next week. A tropical or subtropical low is expected to develop east of the florida coast this weekend and lift slowly northeastward off the east coast next week. At this time, the system is expected to remain well southeast of the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waretown CDP, NJ
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location: 39.81, -74.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241016
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
616 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build southward into the region through
this weekend before progressing offshore around the middle of
next week. This high will bring a period of dry and seasonably cool
weather to the mid-atlantic through at least the beginning of
next week. A tropical or subtropical low is expected to develop
east of the florida coast this weekend and lift slowly
northeastward off the east coast next week. At this time, the
system is expected to remain well southeast of the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The cold front is now well off shore. In its wake, a surface high
will be slowly building towards our region. With some continued weak
cold air advection, expect highs today to be near or slightly lower
than yesterdays highs, ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s across
the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
There is a small chance that showers could move into western
portions of the region as a mid and upper level short wave trough
approaches from the west. However, dew points are already quite low,
and expect them to drop even more before tonight. The drier air,
combined with the climatologically unfavorable timing, favors a dry
forecast at this time.

Lows are expected to be slightly below normal with radiative cooling
slightly tempered by cloud cover.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
The main concerns for the long-term forecast are a prolonged
period of mostly dry and seasonably cool weather through early
next week followed by large uncertainty regarding the evolution
of two tropical systems.

The forecast for Friday through Monday is fairly
straightforward. A large-scale trough will progress through the
great lakes and the northeast through the period, with smaller-
scale vorticity maxima progressing around the larger-scale
trough. One of these perturbations should be advancing through
new england at 12z Friday, and cold air advection on the
upstream side of the shortwave trough should reinforce the
cooling trend already commencing in the region. Forecast highs
should be around five degrees or so below seasonal averages, and
forecast lows Friday night may be 5-10 degrees below average.

Latest mex ece numbers are well below 50 in the poconos, and it
is not out of the question philly may dip below 60. Similarly
cool conditions are expected on Saturday.

Another shortwave trough digs southeastward Saturday night,
which should make for another cool dry day Sunday. The timing of
this trough is unfavorable for development of diurnal showers in
our area, and given the strong model agreement on timing, kept
pops unmentionable during this period. Overall, a banner
weekend is anticipated.

The large-scale trough progresses off the coast Monday, and an
omega block sets up in its wake. This places the region in
upper-level ridging, with the attendant surface high progressing
eastward to new england and adjacent portions of far southeast
canada. This will set up a prolonged period of easterly flow in
the region. Meanwhile, a tropical wave over florida late this
week is projected to drift into the adjacent atlantic waters
this weekend. With little steering flow, weak shear, and very
warm waters, global models are suggesting somewhere between slow
and rapid development of this wave into a tropical subtropical
cyclone. In general, the 00z gfs ECMWF are similar in the
development of this low and its eventual track northeastward
well away from the mid-atlantic. However, given the blocky
nature of the flow to the north, there is fairly large
uncertainty with this system. The 00z cmc paints a much more
ominous picture, for example (a tropical system moving into
chesapeake bay by midweek). Though this solution is low-
probability (quite the outlier), it does suggest that this
period of the forecast is subject to considerable
change uncertainty.

Nevertheless, the presence of this developing system indicates
that (1) surface onshore flow will persist strengthen during the
early to midweek period as the surface pressure gradient
increases, (2) conditions may deteriorate (i.E., increased
cloud cover and potential for showers rain with time, mainly for
southern eastern portions of the cwa), and (3) coastal flooding
concerns may be present next week.

Then there is TC harvey. Although its effects for our region
appear to be outside of the next seven days, it will remain a
player in the forecast for a long while. With an upper low in
the central u.S. Midwest likely to be present during this
period, harvey will eventually lift northeastward.

When where how remain question marks, but it necessitates close
monitoring for the next several days.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. Increasing
mid level clouds are expected later today, but any ceilings will
easily beVFR.

Wind speeds will be light (less than 10kt) throughout the TAF period.

Wind direction, though starting out variable, will eventually
settle in out of the northwest.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday:VFR. Winds slowly veering from N or NW on
Friday to N or NE on Saturday to E or NE Sunday and Monday, with
speeds generally at or below 10 kts through Sunday but slowly
increasing Monday. The strongest winds should be near the coast.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
conditions today and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday night: winds and seas below advisory
criteria. Fair weather.

Sunday and Monday: northeast to east winds will be increasing
during this period, with gusts potentially exceeding advisory
criteria by Sunday night. Seas will also build and will likely
exceed 5 feet by Sunday afternoon or evening.

Rip currents...

there is low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
today. The low risk is forecast to continue through Saturday.

Early next week... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents may increase depending on the the actual development-
building of 8 second easterly swells.

Climate
Kabe monthly rainfall is now 8.34 inches... Still ranked #12 for
the month of august. The record is 13.47 inches in 2011.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi34 min 76°F3 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 24 mi64 min Calm 62°F 1012 hPa59°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 34 mi46 min 70°F 74°F1012.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi46 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 65°F 78°F1013.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi58 min 65°F 78°F1012.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 46 mi46 min N 6 G 8.9 69°F 77°F1011.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 46 mi44 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 74°F2 ft1012 hPa (+0.8)60°F
BDSP1 49 mi46 min 67°F 1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi38 minNNW 410.00 miFair56°F55°F97%1013.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi94 minWNW 3 miFair57°F55°F96%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--NW8NW8N11NW85NW9NW9W10NW9NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNW4
1 day agoSW8SW7SW7W9SW10SW7SW9S15
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2 days agoCalmCalmW4SW5S6S6SW5S7S9S11S8S6S6S4S5S4S3S4SW5SW7SW6SW7SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Oyster Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.30.20.10.10-000.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.10000.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:23 AM EDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     2.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.4-1.5-2.4-3.1-3-2-0.41.12.32.62.11.1-0-1-1.9-2.6-2.7-2-0.60.92.22.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.